Best Buys - Round 5

Discussion in 'Blog' started by That KI Guy, Apr 26, 2018.

By That KI Guy on Apr 26, 2018 at 1:14 AM
  1. That KI Guy

    That KI Guy Moderator Staff Member

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    Upgrade season!

    But before we get hasty, we need to be thinking about which premos we realistically think will be top shelf in their respective positions for the rest of the year. Remember there’s still plenty of footy to play out and aggregate is just as important as average when deciding on premos you are bringing in at this point of the season.

    The list below is purely my take on which premos have bottomed out (or still represent value based on average) and are worthy considerations to fill your top shelf for the remainder of the season.


    Player of the week

    Elliot Yeo WC Def $506K BE 40 Avg 101

    It will no doubt be a rollercoaster as he occasionally gets thrown into a different role. Pretty much lock him in as a top 6 defender regardless. This will probably be the cheapest we’ll see him all season.
    Edit - WARNING, possible late out with injury

    Premiums

    Kade Simpson Carl Def $532K BE 99 Avg 117
    Another locked top 6 defender that has all but bottomed out after matching his 141 BE this weekend. Could wait another week without massive price jump.


    Zach Merrett Ess Mid $486K BE 71 Avg 77
    Is Zerrett back? Back to back tons would suggest so.

    Top 8 mid? Coin toss I reckon but has form. Don’t be put off by the slow start, that’s his MO. Previous two seasons (where he has averaged 109+ for the year), he started with only 3 tons in first six games. Not to mention his concussion affected round 1.


    Clayton Oliver Melb Mid $581K BE 117 Avg 115
    Can probably wait a week or two but can’t see him getting much cheaper. Solid odds for top 8.


    Stephen Coniglio GWS Mid $540K BE 98 Avg 121
    Why on earth haven’t you got him yet? Do it. Do it now!


    Joel Selwood Gee Mid $533K BE 122 Avg 108
    Cleared to play. Basement price. Even money chance of top 10 mid. Can probably wait a week.

    Patrick Cripps Carl Mid $545K BE 84 Avg 116
    Had us a little concerned with back to back 90s. Fear not. Here’s a 151 to calm the nerves.


    Max Gawn Melb Ruck $565K BE 76 Avg 123
    If you don’t have him and you need a ruck for some unknown reason then grab him now before his price goes through the roof.


    Robbie Gray PA Fwd $565K BE 57 Avg 124
    Its Robbie Gray. Nuff said.


    David Mundy Freo M/F $523K BE 105 Avg 104
    Not suggesting he’s a must have this week but I’m putting him in here as I feel he’ll be a top 6 forward. Very durable for his age and seems to have his forward game sorted.


    Issac Heeney Syd M/F $557K BE 92 Avg 112
    Wish I started him. Killing it.


    Mid Pricers

    Not an advertisement to buy here, more like buyer beware.


    Paul Seedsman Adel D/M $414K BE 63 Avg 94
    A brave pick for a guy appearing to breakout. Going at 25+ posies on the wing/HBF so not jeopardised by Sloane/Crouch return. Top 10 defender? Probably not.

    Jarrad McVeigh Syd Def $442K BE 66 Avg 84
    Stringing a few nice games together but will he play out a full season?

    Tim Taranto GWS Fwd $415K BE 45 Avg 93
    A frustrating sub 50 a couple of weeks ago is probably an indication of expected fluctuations throughout the season. If you got him a few weeks back at $50K less, hats off. Not a terrible pick with a reasonable chance to be top 10 forward on current form. A fair bit of talent missing at Giants, though I’m not sure who’d squeeze him out.




    Rookies on the bubble

    Now here’s the head scratcher, a bunch of tasty rookies to downgrade to as well as some fallen premos to jump all over. Aaarrhh!

    Horses for courses as they say, but I reckon we need to invest in at least one of these bubble boys. Obviously, job security is the main concern here and my crystal ball is stuffed given that I’m already carrying 4 bench donuts. My gut feel is on Higgins (3 goals) and Guelfi (2 new fwd injuries) to hold their spots for a few weeks and make a bit of coin. That said, Mirra has done nothing wrong, and competition for his spot seems light at the moment. So at $102K it will be easier for him to make cash even at a lower average.


    David Mirra Haw Def $102K BE -70 Avg 66

    Jack Higgins Rich F/M $130K BE -76 Avg 77

    Matt Guelfi Ess Fwd $117K BE -71 Avg 71

    Lochie O’Brien Carl D/M $162K BE -10 Avg 54

    Jordan Cunico Gee Mid $188K BE -56 Avg 85

    Zac Giles-Langdon GWS Fwd $117K BE -42 Avg 56



    Premium watchlist

    Alex Rance Rich Def $490K BE 122 Avg 93

    Zach Tuohy Gee Def $467K BE 139 Avg 85

    Jeremy Howe Coll Def $462K BE 149 Avg 84


    Patrick Dangerfield Gee Mid $669K BE 163 Avg 117

    Tom Mitchell Haw Mid $642K BE 220 Avg 126

    Dustin Martin Rich Mid $632K BE 148 Avg 125

    Jackson Macrae WB Mid $603K BE 161 Avg 119

    Josh Kelly GWS Mid $602K BE 162 Avg 105

    Matt Crouch Adel Mid $608K BE 209 Avg 78

    Bryce Gibbs Adel Mid $555K BE 170 Avg 105


    Toby McLean WB Fwd $520K BE 126 Avg 103

    Toby Greene GWS Fwd $514K BE 161 Avg 93

    Michael Walters Freo Fwd $512K BE 138 Avg 100



    Rookie Watchlist

    Thomas Cole WC Def $170K (1 game @ 98)

    Taylin Duman Freo Def $123K (1 game @ 85)

    Paul Ahern NM F/M $123K – screaming to be picked!



    Smokie pick

    Brett Deledio GWS Fwd $413K BE -20 Avg 92
    Can you afford to use a trade at this point of the season on a guy made of crepe paper?

    Probably not, but it’d be ballsy.

    Lids is loving life on the outside. Has had a couple of poor games, one where he copped an eye injury, so we’ll give him that. Won’t go 150 every week and is unlikely to play 22 games, but you gotta ask yourself: “do you feel lucky, punk?”
     
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2018
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Comments

Discussion in 'Blog' started by That KI Guy, Apr 26, 2018.

    1. choppers
      choppers
      Someone on the Suns thread on another site posted the same info re: Adel v Suns
      Barlow Spencer in for Suns ......Crouch Mackay in for Crows
      Rischitelli Mcpherson out......Kelly Hartigan out
      • Like Like x 2
    2. That KI Guy
      That KI Guy
      Caddy and Vlaustin inclusions and named on field for Tiges.
      Doesn't bode well for Higgins.
      Gives us another week or more to stagger downgrades.

      Flip side, Shipley and Worpel named in 22 for debut.
      Bucket load of Bomber kids on ext bench.
      Rookies galore!
      Last edited: Apr 26, 2018
    3. insider
      insider
      Yo @Len any whispers on how long Greene is out for and an update on kelly?
      Thinking about severing supercoach ties and cutting my losses... what inside insight do you have for me mate?
    4. The_Swert
      The_Swert
      No Franklin, Sicily, Petracca, or Garlett.

      Tough times ahead.
    5. Len
      Len
      No word on Greene though should know more by tomorrow, Kelly is down to return next week but not locked in


      Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
      • Like Like x 2
    6. benny01
      benny01
      Thinking of going Greene to Coniglio. He's carrying an injury and it looks like he's being managed through it.
      • Like Like x 1
    7. ike2112_01
      ike2112_01
      I need to replace Hamish Hartlett at the back, but also only have 4 forwards named due to Franklin, Garlett, Petracca and Fritsch. I've got $249k in bank so lots of options.

      Do I go Hartlett and Fritsch out, swap Coffield to DEF bench, Garlett to MID bench, and bring in Gray and Higgins? Seems the way to get 6 forwards playing this week then Crowden/Higgins/Giles-Langdon become the bench cover again when Buddy and Petracca are back? And I can sort the Garlett issue another day, perhaps tying in with upgrading Bonner which I think will be needed soon.
      Or is it better to go Guelfi even though Higgins is a more exciting prospect, as Guelfi is at least already named on-field and seems likely to play at least the next 4 weeks?
      Or trade in a really cheap Ruc/Fwd and stick English in the forwards line?

      Thing is I really wanted to get Coniglio in... would you fly with only 21 players for a week if it was better for the team long-term?

      Laird / Hurley / Savage
      Doedee / Bonner / Murray - - Richards and Harlett on DEF bench

      Mitchell / Martin / Fyfe / Cripps
      O'Meara / Kelly / Finlayson / Coffield - - Holman, Banfield and Brayshaw on MID bench

      Gawn / NicNat - - English on RUC bench

      Franklin / Westhoff / Boak
      Garlett / Crowden / Giles-Langdon - - Petracca and Fritsch on FWD bench
      Last edited: Apr 26, 2018
    8. IPOD
      IPOD
      FML Buddy Petracca and Greene out going to be one short in the forward line no matter what
    9. anthak
      anthak
      Thanks for the writeup Grav

      Still a lot to find out when Sunday squads trimmed before I can finalise my trade plans for this week.
      • Like Like x 2
    10. That KI Guy
      That KI Guy
      Yep Fritz will influence many plans.
      If Fritz plays then I’m likely to double down with Guelfi and Mirra.
      Keep building the warchest for TMitch, Oliver and Danger.
      • Like Like x 2
    11. stripey
      stripey
      Buddy, Petracca, Sicily, Fritsch & Crowden....

      Thinking Buddy to Heeney & maybe Naughton to Guelfi via Sicily... will hold till final teams though of course... maybe I can avoid the second trade completely
      • Like Like x 1
    12. RPritch
      RPritch
      If Fritsch doesn't play (he still could), then I would trade Hartlett and Fritsch to Gray and Guelfi if I were you
      • Like Like x 2
    13. IPOD
      IPOD
      Ok even with buddy out i thought i would down either Fogarty or Ryan to Guelfi then move Bonner to Mirra. But that before team release which sees Greene Petracca and Buddy out and possibly no return of Fritsch leaves me with only 4 fwds FML. Question is who long is Buddy out for and also Greene word is Petracca will just be the week (note to AFL players dont get a bloody dog). So either way i am going to be at best case 1 short in the fwds. I dont want to trade both of Greene and Buddy so which to hold and which to turn to Gray.

      Option 1 - Hold Buddy
      Option 2 - Hold Greene
      Option 3 - Punt Both
      • Option 3 Option 3 x 3
      • Option 1 Option 1 x 2
    14. Waldo666
      • Like Like x 2
    15. Penske file
      Penske file
      I was thinking of trading Yeo in this week to do that I have to burn 2 trades , Bonner and Naughton however my gut tells me not to trust Yeo. Now after reading your post I think you just made up my mind for me. All my other rookies are still making money so I'll pass on Mirra /Higgins/Guelfi. Wait for next crop.
    16. Hells Angel
      Hells Angel
      Thanks KI Guy!!
      I'm in the exact same "out" boat as Swert - let's hope Petracca doesn't get rabies from his next Dog accident.
      TU trade Buddy to Gray with cash at hand
      TD cash in a minor rookie like The Fog for one of the aforementioned FWD rookies
      ??
      • Dislike Dislike x 1
    17. Hells Angel
      Hells Angel
      Sorry - forgot to say that YEO is in my opinion our next Higgins from a few years ago, love to watch him play, but I cant handle the blood pressure fluctuations... he's a dead set SC Coach Killer
    18. Iain
      Iain
      Great work with the Best Buys lads, enjoying reading them.
      • Like Like x 4
    19. Senator96
      Senator96
      Thanks for the article, very good.

      Looking at a double downgrade this week to try and build up the bank balance to 300k then hopefully 1 up one down from there. I like Mirra at his price and naughton looks like the only one who can make way. Lachlan murphy isn't playing but has only had the one price rise so that trade doesn't net much so probably not worthwhile. With naughton having a BE of only 11 would have preferred to hold him for another week but I guess sometimes you have no option but to go early.

      The second trade is a bit trickier its out for Higgins or guelfi for the spud garlett. I know very little about guelfi and don't have the prospectus with me. Does anyone have anything to share on him, his role and JS? If Higgins doesn't play then it makes it an easy choice. Looks like there might be another good defender rookie option with Duman next week too if his first score was anything to go. There should be more rookies ready to chop next week. Id like Cunico but hes mid only so its bad timing there

      TU: Higgins
      TD: Guelfi
      • Dislike Dislike x 7
      • Like Like x 1
    20. IPOD
      IPOD
      Im not 100% on Higgins JS as the weeks go on but then again im staring at 3 possibly 4 fwds out this week so take that with a grain of salt
      • Like Like x 1

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