Best Buys: Sorry

Discussion in 'Blog' started by Iain, May 12, 2015.

By Iain on May 12, 2015 at 10:00 AM
  1. Iain

    Iain Moderator Staff Member

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    I really don't want to do this, but I don't have much of a choice.

    The Best Buy this week is Tom Mitchell.


    I'm sorry.


    DEFENSE
    ROOKIES





    Daniel McKenzie (StK) D/M 117.3k 71 +63k

    McKenzie is on the bubble this week sporting an average of 71 and looking at a likely price rise of over 60 grand. With D/M positioning and other defensive and midfield rookie options struggling with form or injury he looks to be a popular trade in target this week.



    Henry Schade (GCS) DEF 123.9k 53 +37k
    Schade is also on the bubble, and in a Gold Coast team that has been severely hampered by injury. Averaging 53 and facing a price rise of around 37 grand he should hopefully get a few more games but will have questionable job security when others return to the side.



    MID-PRICERS





    Corey Enright (GEE) DEF 498.1k 98 2.3%

    Enright seems to have found some of his previous form again, scoring 126 in his last game to bring his average over the last 3 rounds to 112. Sitting in just over 2% of teams he is a huge POD, but given his age a risky one.



    Heath Shaw (GWS) DEF 491.6k 97 25.9%

    Heater had a somewhat quiet game against the Hawks, managing a score of 89 to bring his average to 97 for the season. Sitting in over ¼ of the teams in the comp he isn't a massive POD but is always a risk of scoring 120+.



    Liam Picken (WBD) DEF 492.8k 95 2.8%
    Picken has been a huge surprise over the last few rounds, scoring 119 in his last game and currently holding an average of 134 over the past 3 games, compared to his average of 57 from his first 3 matches this year. Sitting in under 3% of teams he has huge POD potential, but any coach that has him will be worried about a return to the tagging roles of seasons past.



    PREMIUMS





    Tom McDonald (MEL) DEF 500.3k 114 12.5%

    McDonald isn't showing any signs of slowing down at the moment, racking up another 120+ on the weekend and breaking the 500 grand barrier. Sitting in 12.5% of sides he still has good POD value, and as the current highest averaging defender is well on his way to being in the top 6 defenders this year.



    Bachar Houli (RIC) DEF 540k 110 6%
    Bachar had a down game against the Roos, only managing a 74 to bring his average down to 110. Still in only 6% of teams he is a definite POD, but many will be wondering if his performance on the weekend was an indication of other clubs starting to take more notice. At 540 grand he is on the pricey side but is only looking at a price rise of around 10 grand next week.



    MIDFIELD
    ROOKIES





    Joshua Glenn (GCS) MID 120.4k 69 +59k

    Glenn disappointed many of the coaches that jumped the gun and brought him in a week early, only managing a score of 36 after his ton on debut. Stowie mentioned earlier today that Glenn was seen limping off at training so potential coaches will need to keep this in mind but realistically an average of 69 for a 120 grand rookie on the bubble is pretty good if he comes up ok. Looking at a price rise of around 60 grand Glenn will still likely be nabbed by a few teams this week.



    Clem Smith (CAR) MID 127.8k 31 +7k

    Smith burst his bubble on the weekend with a score of 53, bringing his average to 31 from his first 3 games. Already looking leaner then in the pre-season the Blues will likely want to get game-time into their young players as the majority of veterans are sucking pretty badly. Due to his low average his price is still under 130 grand, but most coaches will look straight past him to the better performing rookies.



    Blaine Boekhorst (CAR) MID 156k 44 +12k

    Boekhorst also broke his bubble on the weekend, scoring 66 points to move his average up to 44 for the year. Still fairly cheap at 156 grand he should continue to get games, but they may continue to be spread out. Similar to Smith, likely won't get a look from most SC coaches.



    Brendon Ah Chee (PTA) MID 127.4k 27 +5k
    Ah Chee is in a similar position to the two Blues, bursting his bubble with a score of 38 bringing his average up to 27. Realistically not a great option from what we've seen of him so far, but as most SC coaches know things can change pretty quickly in this game.



    MID-PRICERS





    Lachie Neale (FRE) MID 540.7k 116 10.6%

    Neale pumped out another big score on the weekend, racking up 133 points to take his average back up to 116 for the season. Those that started the year with him will have to be pleased with the selection, and a fair few other coaches are starting to look for ways to bring him in. It will be interesting to see if other teams continue to let him rack up big possession counts with great disposal efficiency, but that decision will be a hard one as there are a fair few Dockers now who merit a hard tag.



    Brad Ebert (PTA) MID 518.2k 109 4.4%

    Ebert suffered a very significant” corkie on the weekend but Port officials say he should be right for the next game, meaning he is a bit of a risk at the moment and playing the last game of the round may well scare a few away. That aside however, he's come into some good form this season and is averaging 109 for a price of under 520 grand. In 4.4% of teams he is a solid POD, but with a price rise of only 14 grand on the cards the majority will probably adopt a wait-and-see approach.



    Leigh Montagna (StK) MID 480.3k 107 0.5%

    Joey is set to burst his bubble this week after playing his second game for the year on the weekend, and in a valiant win against the Doggies no less. Costing just 480 grand and averaging 107 so far he looks great value, but questions will remain about his ability to maintain form and avoid injury. With only half a percent of teams going with him so far he is a huge POD but, as is usually the case, a pretty risky one.



    Mitch Duncan (GEE) MID 516.5k 96 0.6%
    Duncan has exploded in the last 2 games, racking up 153 on the weekend to go with his 140 from the week before. The big question will always be can he maintain this run of form, and with an average of 96 for the year including his 2 big games it is a legitimate concern. One for the risk-takers, Duncan averaged 100 flat last season and has shown solid improvement since his debut in 2010.



    PREMIUMS





    Nathan Fyfe (FRE) MID 657.8k 129 60.3%

    Fyfe would have been listed as a regular week, but it should be mentioned that he is set to lose around 7 grand after his next game. When you're averaging 129 this really shouldn't be an issue for most coaches, but it does mean that those wanting to grab him can probably afford to wait another week to deal with more pressing matters.



    David Mundy (FRE) MID 602k 124 6.7%

    Mundy continues to rack up the big scores, averaging 124 for the year to date and breaking through the 600 grand price barrier. Still in under 7% of teams he is a great POD, and could well be a top midfielder by season's end.



    Scott Pendlebury (COL) MID 634.2k 120 35.2%

    Pendles continued on with the Best Buy curse on Friday night by registering his lowest score for the season, but luckily he still managed to top the 100 mark. Now facing a price drop of around $200 after his next game he is another player that can wait before trading him in, but with an average of 120 and his history of averaging 100+ every year back to 2008 it still surprises me that he's only in 35% of sides.



    David Armitage (StK) MID 590.5k 120 1%

    Armo has been a massive surprise this season, averaging 120 for the 1% of coaches to back him in. A 126 on the weekend certainly helped his cause, and he's now averaging 129 from the last 5 games. A definite risk given his history, but at under 600 grand he is decent value and in red-hot form.



    Travis Boak (PTA) MID 581.1k 106 5%

    Boak has also come into some great form lately, averaging 128 from his last 3 matches. Costing 580 grand he is expensive for his season's average of 106, but if he can keep his current form going is actually quite good value. Sitting in only 5% of the competition he has good POD credentials, but it should be noted will likely lose around 2 grand after his next game.



    Josh P Kennedy (SYD) MID 560.5k 112 14.2%
    JPK has also picked up his game in recent weeks, averaging 119 over the last 3 to bring his season's average to 112. Priced fairly well at 560 grand and sitting in just under 15% of teams he will likely have his share of suitors over the coming rounds, but most teams will be focusing on a different Swan this week.



    RUCK
    MID-PRICERS





    Mark Blicavs (GEE) M/R 478.7k 101 11.9%

    The Blitz continued on his way against Grundy on Friday night, scoring 107 to edge out his younger adversary. Now averaging 101 for a price of under 480 grand he is still decent value but getting pretty close to his price ceiling. Currently sitting in around 12% of teams Blicavs has the unique advantage of M/R positioning, and could well be brought in to a few sides now as a ruckman to be turned into midfield back-up late in the season.



    Brodie Grundy (COL) RUC 453.3k 97 15.3%
    Grundy had a decent but not amazing run on Friday night, going up against Blicavs and former Saint Stanley for a score of 87. Priced at just over 450 grand with an average of 97 he still offers good value, but is now looking relatively unlikely to take out a top 2 ruck spot by season's end.



    PREMIUMS





    Stefan Martin (BRI) RUC 600.1k 111 3.2%
    Martin had another big game last weekend, scoring 145 this time against a poor Carlton outfit. Now averaging 111 for the year and 137 from his last 3 games he appears to be back in the form that he ended last season with, but with a price of 600 grand isn't particularly good value for money currently. That being said, if he keeps scoring in the 130 range he will be a must-have for all teams.



    FORWARD
    MID-PRICERS





    Tom Mitchell (SYD) M/F 405.6k 119 4.5%

    The Best Buy for the week, and as I'll be bringing him in I really hate to name him that, TMitch is not only in excellent form but actually getting games for once. Costing just over 400 grand and averaging 119 from his first 2 games you really can't go past him for value, and he is facing a price rise of 50 grand after his next game. Whenever that occurs.



    Marcus Bontempelli (WBD) M/F 487.5k 112 52.7%

    The Bont surprised me somewhat on the weekend, having a quiet game but still managing to knock up 107 points. This is a good sign for his overall scoring, as it means even when he isn't on-song he can still score enough to be worthwhile. Now sitting in over half the teams in the competition the Bont Bandwagon is going strong, and with an average of 112 for a price of under 490 grand I really can't see it slowing down anytime soon.



    Eddie Betts (ADE) FWD 466.7k 106 4.1%

    Betts continues to surprise, after some big games and then a quieter patch he's gone back to his early season form with a 117 on the weekend. Now averaging 106 for the year and priced at under 470 grand he is good value for money and if you think he can keep the scores coming his 4% selection rate makes him a great POD.



    Matthew Pavlich (FRE) FWD 455.5k 103 3.1%

    Pav really has turned back the clock apparently, scoring 134 points on the weekend to keep his season's average over 100. Sitting in around 3% of sides he again offers great POD value, if he can keep scoring like this anyway, and is priced well at 455 grand.



    Harley Bennell (GCS) M/F 496.1k 101 8.9%
    Bennell should return this week after missing the last game due to a club-imposed suspension, and after a huge 146 in round 5 and racking up 40 touches and 2 goals in the NEAFL on the weekend appears to be in good form. Priced at just under 500 grand with an average of 101 he is around the mark price-wise, and while he has only gone 100+ once this season his lowest score was 84 so he hasn't had any real stinkers. Sitting in around 9% of sides Bennell is a decent POD, but will need to pump out some more big scores to be in the running for top 6 forwards this season.



    PREMIUMS





    Robbie Gray (PTA) M/F 571.2k 117 48.7%

    Gray had another big outing on the weekend, amassing 143 points to take his average to 117 for the year. Priced pretty much where he should be at 570 grand he is in just under half the sides in the competition, and should be a priority for the other half. Facing a likely price rise of around 22 grand after his next game, he is a very strong contender for best forward this year.



    Shane Edwards (RIC) M/F 510.5k 109 1%

    Edwards has been another surprise in a season full of them, averaging 109 for the year after a 134 on the weekend in Hobart. Costing 510 grand he is decent value for his average, and is a massive POD with only 1% of the comp selecting him to date.



    Brendon Goddard (ESS) M/F 536.8k 102 15.4%

    Goddard has come back into form, scoring 135 on the weekend to bring his average back to 102 and his price to 536 grand. It will be interesting to see whether today's news that WADA will be appealing the Essendon case will have a psychological impact on their playing group, but all players are luckily still free to play. Sitting in just over 15% of teams BJ is facing a price rise of around 20 grand after his next game and has probably now bottomed out.



    Jack Gunston (HAW) FWD 508.6k 98 4.3%
    Gunston is an interesting one, averaging 98 for the season so far after 107 over his last 3 games. Priced at around 510 grand and sitting in just over 4% of sides he is slightly overpriced but a definite POD for those wanting to take a punt, and really who better to punt on then the reigning premiers?



    WAITING LIST





    Brett Deledio (RIC) M/F 553.3k 63 -62k

    Tom Rockliff (BRI) MID 494.2k 56 -63k

    Todd Goldstein (NM) RUC 601.7k 118 -22k

    Rory Sloane (ADE) MID 513.3k 103 -27k

    Dyson Heppell (ESS) MID 570.5k 109 -23k

    Cale Hooker (ESS) DEF 471.7k 99 -22k

    Joel Selwood (GEE) MID 557.4k 100 -21k

    Dane Swan (COL) M/F 496.9k 101 -17k

    Michael Hibberd (ESS) DEF 417.4k 73 -27k

    Lance Franklin (SYD) FWD 481.9k 89 -25k

    So that's it again for the Best Buys, but as always join us in the comments section for polls and general SC chatter. Good luck to all for the weekend, and I really hope TMitch can break the Best Buy curse for me.
     

Comments

Discussion in 'Blog' started by Iain, May 12, 2015.

    1. RPritch
      RPritch
      And it's not because Sydney is a good team that his js is a question mark, he is actually in their best 15 players comfortably. It's just for some reason they don't like him
    2. Adam42
      Adam42
      Anyone else looking at Jack Ziebell instead of Tom Mitchell? Take out the game Jack got concussed in and he is averaging around 100. Plus he is more bye friendly.
    3. JoshyC
      JoshyC
      Thanks mate, top 100 is all luck this far, but staying there and moving up requires executing the right trades. I'm leaning towards JPK as other fwd line options will open up.
    4. JoshyC
      JoshyC
      I agree, but I have made a few of them already, with 1 more this week and 2 more to follow next week
    5. Bucko
      Bucko
      I'm in the same boat with the Sloane conundrum, I think I've traded him out and reversed about 6 times this week already.

      Earliest he would possibly be back is round 12 after their bye with a break even of 160+ He will be an absolute steal at around $480k after 2 games back.

      I'm leaning towards dump
    6. Bucko
      Bucko
      I'm trying not to get too caught up in the TMitch bandwagon this week and ensure I look at other options also. You've thrown up another contender in Ziebell.

      Goddard is the other one I am looking at closely, but the extra $130k over TMitch and Ziebell is tough to swallow
    7. Bucko
      Bucko
      Currently have these trades pencilled in:

      Sloane -> McKenzie
      Hogan -> Mitchell

      $357,800 in the bank for Vandenberg -> JPK next week.
    8. graeme
      graeme
      Beware of selective statistics - think about what you get with JZ, and that includes the injury risk. Here is another selective statistic; take out the atypical 150 in round 2 and you have a five game average around 72.

      It is hard to know which of the three averages (the six round average or the two selective averages) is the best estimate of the remainder of the season average.
    9. Natha
      Natha
      I too have Sloane, and was going to keep him, but now that seems ridiculous considering he's a premo and likely won't be playing until after the byes.
      I have about $600k in cash, and was planning on upgrading in time for the byes, but considering the lean stocks in DEF and FWD, maybe it's not a bad idea to grab a couple of rookies who are on the bubble? Have 27 trades left.
      TU: Risky, but sure
      TD: Upgrade as soon as you can, premo=points
      Comment if you have advice.
      Thoughts greatly appreciated
    10. Adam42
      Adam42
      Good point Graeme, just looking at other avenues than Mitchell. I already have JPK and Parker in my team, 3 swans might be too many. I was looking at JZ as someone that could average around 100 for the season and is not a round 12 bye player.
    11. Bucko
      Bucko
      $600k and 27 trades ?? You would have to be leaking a lot of points unless you started with the perfect team.

      Where are you sitting overall ?
    12. Senator96
      Senator96
      I picked up ZIebell last week at 380k when he'd bottomed out courtesy of the red vested 4 he got against port. I don't buy into the whole 'if you take out the 150 he scored he'd only average...' the fact is he is capable of those massive scores and got 150 because he dominated a game. Not that I'm trying to talk anyone into getting him, will be happy to have him as a POD this year but whether he's worth picking up this week over tom Mitchell who is priced about the same I'm not sure.

      Would like to take the punt on Mitchell this week, think with his upside is worth the gamble at 400k but with simpson, Kelly, McIntosh, saad and whitecross in the backline I'm fairly resigned to the fact I'll probably have to use both my trades down back this week. Heeney can go for McKenzie activing mpp and then saad to mid bench. What do peoples thoughts on liam picken? I haven't seen the bulldogs play for a while but hear he is playing in the midfield, is this likely to continue?

      TU: Kelly to Picken is a good trade
      TD: There are better options (Smith & Newnes are my other non rookie two defenders)
    13. bunza;-)
      bunza;-)
      Regarding Picken, I think all will be revealed this weekend. If Beveridge does not send him to do a shutdown role on Fyfe/Mundy/Neale, then I think it will be pretty clear sign that Picken will be allowed to play as a pure midfielder. If this happens, I’ll be trying to get him into my backs sooner rather than later.
    14. insider
      insider
      agreed. Now that Wallis, and Jong to a lesser extent, are back the scores will more accurately reflect their intended roles... whatever that may be!
    15. insider
      insider
      I went with goddard. had done the mitchell trade but ended up reversing after reading a few articles on afl.com.au & herald sun, then recalling previous years burning all over the great white hope tom mitchell. Risk vs reward for me and theres minimal risk in goddard after averaging 100+ for the last 7 years
    16. Griffith Ranger
      Griffith Ranger
      is anyone considering devon smith? very distrusting of longmire's affection for titch and wouldn't mind a POD. Currently sitting in the top 2000.

      TU: Mitchell
      TD: Smith
    17. Iain
      Iain
      Smith is a good option GR, especially against the Blues this week. Has shown good signs with progressing steadily since starting in the big league, worry is how many games will GWS get pumped in. If you can see them being competitive for at least 2/3rds of games then I reckon he's a great POD option
    18. JoshyC
      JoshyC
      I've gone with Kennedy...and am happy
    19. Natha
      Natha
      Ha, I started late, didn't get into the league I was invited to and am consequently in the six-figured ranks. This year is about fun to me, nothing too serious (then why am I here? :p).
      The $600k is from getting rid of failed mid-pricers only.....
    20. Natha
      Natha
      Also, consider the fact GWS are sitting 6th on the ladder..... in front of the Dogs. It probably means they're doing something right this year (have they won more games than they did last year yet?)

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