Ruddy how about neither Wallis nor Libba in a perfect Doggies world? I can see them both getting 10-15 games but it wouldn't surprise me if they were given some kid gloves like the Pies did with Sidebottom/Beams. On the 3 premium mids and not going an established name, not sure on that strategy. I think come end of year if you haven't had Ablett/Goddard/Swan/Judd you might well struggle. The names you have listed could well do a good job, but Jack and Swallow may well be one-year wonders at the very top end. Selwood even is a bit of a risk without Gaz as he will cop the number 1 tag now. Now I'm thinking you are going to have the Goddard-Deledio-Gibbs combo in defence so there's your premium decisions made, right? So you then have to skimp a little in the middle. I'm still getting a balance right and it is difficult, no doubt. Just don't think it's worth skimping on midfield premiums. Mid premiums I would have thought would be these sorts of discussions: Montagna v Dal Santo v Goddard (I think he might even be more useful as a mid to start with, depending on other DPs) Pendlebury v Swan Murphy v Judd (v Gibbs) Selwood v Bartel (v Chapman) Cross v Boyd v Cooney Hodge v Mitchell Ablett (will he do the job?) For those who are thinking that GC must score something during games, does this mean GAJ could become even more of a SC gun this season due to the availability of more PIE?
I'm starting with 3 premiums (at this early stage...) Pendlebury, Cross & Selwood. Swallow is my sole GCS midfield player and by all reports he could very well be included as a 4th premium. I then have Gaff (lets face it WC need some class in their midfield...) and Polec (with so many Lions midfielders gone he'll get games). As for what happens after this well I suppose any decisions will be dictated by NAB Cup form.
From your list Lucas I like: Goddard (DEF) Swan Judd & Gibbs (DEF) Chapman (FWD) Cross Hodge Planning on starting all these guys at this early stage. Will look at GAJ as a possible upgrade post Rd 9 Currently have A. Swallow too... remains to be seen if I can fit all of 'em in
For those thinking Judd and gibbs remeber he wont be playing in the GF as carlton have the bye.... is it worth taking him knowing you will have to dump him at years end if you chasing the league victory
Essendon are the last bye - so they will miss the GF year? Carlton are second week of finals from memory.
your right sorry my mistake. I was looking at it last night and geeling and Carlton both have byes in the Finals so its even more important to keep some trades up your sleve and makes it hard to plan
Geelong is not too bad if you can win your first final and you are top 4, you'll have a bye when they do
Ive read through this and I truley cant believe ppl are thinking that Swallow will average around 100. Your dreaming if u think he will Martin was the highest averaging first year player last year and he averaged 78. So I expect him to get something around that, id 85 would be the absoloute maximum
I was hoping that my midfield would be unique with Selwood, D Swallow and Jack. Good point Danger, I very much doubt he will do that well. I still cant understand why you would start Goddard in the mids, have a rookie B/C in the mids to enable him to cover at a last resort. He will finish up in the backline, so you may as well start him there.
@Lucas I was planning on having Goddard back, yes. Swan seems to be the perfect upgrade target, as he peaks second half of the season, making him a value pick around round 7/8. Judd is currently injured, and given Carlton have a late bye, i'm not too game on him. I can't see him scoring more than he did last year, and as he gets older, more injury prone, and more Carlton mids step up, i reckon that means less points for Juddy. I reckon he will score about the same as last year though. And i was planning on upgrading to Ablett also. It will take GC a while to learn to play together, so as the season goes on, they could get better. But another worry with Ablett, is that i doubt GC will be close to finals this year. What if they rest Ablett for the last couple of rounds, and just go all youth? I was thinking of starting with Selwood, Jack, Swallow because i reckon Selwood should average 120-130+, and the other two average somewhere in the region that the likes of Montagna, Pendles, Cross etc. average. Basically meaning i am getting that kind of player, but for 50-100k cheaper. I also plan to have a fair bit of money left over so that i am able to upgrade to the likes of Swan, Ablett etc. So starting with Jack and Swallow instead of Montagna, Boyd etc. enables me to do that. These are my POD's. I don't reckon they will go backwards, so it's no different to picking a 100+ scorer in the forward line. Except the money i save can go towards picking a better forward/back line.
@Ruddy I can't see either Swallow or Jack scoring more than any of Montagna, Pendles or Cross. Montagna is the best value ultra prem this year in my opinion...priced at 115 when he scored a 126 average in 2009.
Jack and Swallow weren't that far behind last year. And both will improve their averages, compared to about the same for the players you listed. Also, Pendles, Montag etc., are all from the best teams. Their situations mean they are more likely to get less ball as others improve around them. Whereas Jack and Swallow will basically be leading their teams to a potential final spot. In terms of value, Jack and Swallow will likely score more points per dollar then the other three. On Montags in 2009. Saint Kilda had the ultimate season in 2009. More losses, generally means less points, so i reckon Montags 2010 is closer to what he will average. I'm not saying they will score more, i'm saying that they will score somewhere about the same, imo.
@Danger From memory, Rich averaged about 85ppg in his first year so its not unprecedented. 100ppg would be a big ask though. On a different note, I'm looking at Burgoyne as a potential premium. Hard to say how the midfield points will be split at Hawks, but he finished off last year really well.
Tylor that is true Rich did score very high for a first year player, but who says its nessecarily going to be DSwallow being the highest scoring first year player in 2011, atm we are just assuming. But i actually think that Heppell might be scoring higher. On Swallow and Jack they are two great selections in my book and theres theyll score well again next year probally around the same average cant see them having two breakout years in a row but could improve slightly. Young proven prems are great choices
Just read about the Judd injury. "Father-to-be and captain Chris Judd is in danger of missing the NAB Cup as he battles a bruised heel and quadricep complaint. The Brownlow medallist was restricted to straight-line running and stationary kicking yesterday." And I just about had him locked in for my mids Are people reconsidering Judd or do you think he'll be alright for starting selection?
@ austin Judds minor injury should not put you off. Over the past 5 yrs he has not missed many gaves other than suspension. Also with his high level of fitness, i recon he will be cherry ripe come rd 1. So i for one will not be to worried about this minor hic-up
Such a tough year to pick mids: Swan - how will less rotations effect him, he may be taggable this year Ablett - injured and unprotected at GC Selwood - no Ablett to take the no 1 tag Judd - injured and brownlow curse (Oh, it's real, check the figures) Hodge - does Burgoyne take his points now he is fit (like the 2nd half of last year) Plenty of tempters like Mclean Houli Foley Harris Shuey etc Starting to do my head in and it's not even open yet. I'm leaning towards "lesser" mid premos like Joey, Murphy, Cross et al Just on D Swallow - he averaged 2 points a game less than his team mate, Hayden Jolly during the U18 champs 2 years ago
@eagles: I think you'll find that the rotation numbers at Collingwood will only be marginally affected. Rumours over summer were that they have tweaked their system and have worked out how to counter the new rule. Could be ducks and drakes - guess we'll find out. Bear in mind also that whoever is tagging Swan will probably get fewer minutes on the pine as well. Also, the Bulldogs rotate more than Collingwood so how will the new rule affect their midfielders? For mine though the big query on Swan's output, other than how he will start the year, is that the second tier of Pendles, Daisy, Wellingham, etc are a year closer to peaking. Sidey and Beams are starting their 3rd year. Swan will be 27 so not much more improvement in him (getting towards his hamstring years soon) and you would wonder whether he will soon start to lose his share of the pie.
Tbh, i reckon one of the teams who will get the biggest advantage out of the interchange rules could be Hawthorn. The likes of Sewell, Mitchell, Hodge, Shiels etc., while not particularly fast, are gut-runners, and can run all day. With opponents now getting less rest (presumably) that means these types of players are back in fashion. I don't reckon it will show much this year, but when the AFL eventually change the rules to further limit interchanges, these players will star.
If Sewell/Mitchell/Hodge get a benefit from the new rule, then Swan is going to smash it, provided he is injury free, because endurance and pace he'd have them covered. People need to realise Swan has elite fitness even though he runs like a penguin and looks like Chopper Read In the event he is getting tired and needs a rest in future with capped rotations, he'll go forward and kick a few sausage rolls. Or back and have a rest because it's in the Pies forward line press. Like the olden days. Can't see the interchange rule being a major issue this year if clubs are disciplined in making group changes when a stoppage occurs. That, however, will not be to the AFL's liking so I can see either 2 subs next year, or a rotation cap. Probably a cap and no subs is my tip.