I had him last year and he burnt me bad. By all accounts he is training the house down and fit and healthy. I had sworn off him but at his price and if he is over his injuries/illness from last year he is a tasty option. Thoughts??
I just can't bring myself to do it. When I saw the article saying he was fit and ready to go, I actually wished I hasn't because now I feel forced to consider him when I have inclinations not to. As with many others, I've been burnt and can't see myself picking him in my team.
Thinking a yes with caution. Needs to really show me some NAB form but as lots of forwards are already pretty erratic/durability prone, he's not as big a risk as some might think. Off one leg last year he still knocked out avg 78. I think for him though he should be settled in more a forward rather than midfield role, as his disposal tended to stuff up the closer he moved to the heat. Probably 2 years away from being a Didak who can do both at an elite level. Pretty much where Didak was 2 years ago So for me, gotta show me something in the NAB - first that he is fit, and that he is able to either get more efficiency of his midfield game, or that he is settled up forward next to Barry in the absence of players like Johnson, with an 'occasional' rather than regular mid rotation.
My question is, can he average 90+? If not, i reckon your either better off getting a premium, or a rookie.
And it's a very good question Ruddy I say he can. Averaged 90+ in his previous year even then he wasn't fully fit Natural development should show an improve, and with DP you could consider carrying his injury risk - a bit like Chapman Faded last year after a shocker against the Dons (not on his own that night) and then that Etihad injury against the Pies I'd judge him on his first 8 games: ppg avg 93
At this stage i am jumping on him, will be interesting to see his form through the nab cup. Hopefully they will swap him through the midfield a little more this year.
Another problem for me is, he plays 13 games at Etihad. And considering i don't recall them fixing the ground, you would think it will still be an easy way to pick up an injury. Especially since he already has suffered from ankle injuries before. Also, for less then 100k more, you can pick up the likes of Goodes, Rioli, Brown, and for 104k more, you can pick up Pavlich. IMO, it is a better investment into a keeper if you just add that little bit extra. It also saves you a trade in the extremely likely event that he does get injured. And it seems to be a pattern that he does miss 4-5+ games. Which if you then add in two byes, thats already 6 or 7 games. That is, if he doesn't pick up a season ending injury. You never know, he may end up being the mid pricer pick of the year, but for mine, his risk outweighs the chance that he will pay off. Also just one last thing, if he does come good, and average 90, that's still not as much as a premium, so you already lose out on say 10-15 ppg.
I'm wary too after bringing Higgins in at his peak and suffering the downturn last year. However, he is proving to be hard to ignore this pre-season. For me the factor that has Higgins tentatively in my starting line-up is his publicly putting his hand up for the captaincy. Given the question marks over his durability and consistency, and his relative youth, there was no way he was ever going to get the gig. But it did represent a statement of future intent. In order to back this statement up he has to dispel the doubts surrounding his recent form. The only way he can do this is by stepping up and having a good year while the idea of him as a potential club captain is fresh in people's minds. In a sense he has deliberately chosen to put more pressure on his performance this season. With space being freed up in his area of the ground thanks to retirements Higgins is well placed for a break-out year. If his NAB form holds up I think I'll roll the dice and take him.
Apparently everyone trains down the house and has his best pre season ever, I'm going to wait like other see how his preseason is and what role the dogs play him in
Agreed Fez - there's currently 400 AFL footballers training the house down right now, even if they are in rehab, questionable photos or coming off a broken leg.
I have Higgins at F5 ATM. Obviously have to see how he shapes up in the pre-season, but I had him in 09 and he was servicable early. Didn't go with him last year obviously with Hall an option. Let's face it, the kid has serious talent and if he can stay injury free and play 20 games or so, I reckon he'll churn out around 95ppg.
Ive got him at the moment aswell, at that price i reckon he is worth the risk. Didnt we all not pick Chapman last year for the exact same durability reasons?? As for if he only averages 95 that your losing 10-15 points, last year only 5 players averaged over 100 in the forward line and your more then likely already got 2 or 3 of those guys in your side. So imo your really losing that much as forwards dont seem to average that much more then 95 over the entire year. Ill throw this at you though: Higgins- $379K or Robbie Gray - $368K Both are capable of becoming premium players but both injury prone.
Here's another idea, you could always start with a rookie instead of him, and if he starts averaging 95+, you can trade him in as a cheap premium, after the rookie has gained a bit. When you think about it, it removes all risk, and enables you to pick someone else if another mid-pricer is really hot. You don't really lose any money, because the cash cow increases too, plus the extra 200+k can be put into another position. I suppose it does cost you a trade, which we have extra of, and you will lose some points if he does average 95+ compared to whatever your rookie is scoring.
I don't think he will be in my starting lineup. Burnt bigtime by him last year. He admittedly clearly has some potential to improve on 2010, but not enough to risk his starting price for mine. Will be in consideration for an upgrade target if his body is holding up around mid-season. @skt Uggh, those are the two FWDs from my 2010 that have both scarred me. Avoid the pain and find value elsewhere. There is surely plenty to be found.
What if you go the Higgins gamble, if he doesnt live up to what you want and avgs 90, you may be able to use him as a semi-premium super sub for fwds and mids (if not injured).......... Maybe Although might be better to try someone more reliable to play games like Goodes for this sort of thing... Anyway a using aa midpricer in this role if they dont quite cut it to be in your finished team would provide good cover and save a trade...
haha I feel your pain Jason in regards to Gray, had him last year and just kept hold of him waiting for him to come back... Yea i agree theres plenty of value around but you've gotta take these kinda risks in this game so willing to gamble on one them or maybe 2 of them.... Well that is until the season starts and i chicken out and go the safe route and take neither!!!
Neither are earmarked for my list either. I subscribe to the Premium/Rookie idea so quickly scroll from about >450k to <250k (esp for FWDs)
<blockquote>Quote from Ruddy on February 3, 2011, 16:11 Here's another idea, you could always start with a rookie instead of him, and if he starts averaging 95+, you can trade him in as a cheap premium, after the rookie has gained a bit. When you think about it, it removes all risk, and enables you to pick someone else if another mid-pricer is really hot. You don't really lose any money, because the cash cow increases too, plus the extra 200+k can be put into another position. I suppose it does cost you a trade, which we have extra of, and you will lose some points if he does average 95+ compared to whatever your rookie is scoring.</blockquote> you could use the chappy reasoning to countert his idea. if you trade him in and he gets inj, then you are using 2 trades on him; as opposed to only 1 if you started with him and he gets injured. At this stage he is in my side. worth the risk i reckon, but will depend a littlwe on NAB scores