I find Lucas' comment that "past performance does not indicate future output" very interesting. Its something I'm a big believer in but the vast majority of commenters seem completely focussed on what players scored last year - hence the much recommended policy of only picking 'proven' premiums. Eg. people have suggested mid premium spots should be saved for guys guaranteed to pump out 115+ppg yet only 1 player has managed to do that in any 3 of last 4 years, only Rooey and Chappy come close and they are both fwds. In 2009, 10 of the top 15 scorers averaged 103ppg or less the year before. Not as much turnover last year but I think it shows theres plenty of risk trying to pick the 'proven' premiums, just ask the people who had Goodes, ROK, Corey, even Ablett and Montagna dropped 10ppg last year. When we start with a limited amount to spend the last thing you wanna do is pick a guy who has peaked. Know matter how you lok at it, your gonna score more if you can pick guys on the way up. Not saying its easy to do but in a comp of 300,000+ its the only way to win imo.
@Tylo- I suppose that's the million dollar question- picking the players that are on the way up. For instance my midfield atm, comprises Selwood, Pendlebury, Jack(on the cusp), Boak(expensive) Anthony(has been injured) and D.Swallow. Now like most I am looking for an edge over others. But if you look at my selections currently you could say well why not go more rookie combinations instead of Boak/Anthony or downgrade other areas to improve the midfield. I still think picking premium performers in any line is warranted as it balances out areas you may be deficient in.
Dont get me wrong, you've picked young guys with reasonable potential to improve, which I'm all for. Its the people that suggest you 'have to' have player x or player y cause of what he's done in the past. Ablett is the only player to ave 115+ppg 3 years in a row. Maybe I'm biased but Dane Swan is no Gary Ablett. Even Ablett could struggle this year - when is the last time a player averaged 115+ in a bottom 4 team?
Farkin' typo on the phone autoc orrects, hopefully you know what i meant spud. Judd is a wait and see at the moment like a few with the preseason to get a gauge on his fitness. I had money left over from my initial squad so instead of Murphey i went Judd which will save me a trade during the season.
This year is a bit different, having so many rookies on the bench appreciating to cherry pick for slaughter, and having extra trades as well. You want the very best 22 players in your side, not the best value for money amongst your starters.
This is interesting discussion. I think it has been made pretty clear that Ablett is best an upgrade target. Haven't got Swan or Pendles atm. Was thinking that Goddard would be enough as 'perma-captain'. With the possibility of a Chappy, Rooey or Buddy for when they play WC or Richmond etc. Haven't really got room either with 3 starting rookies, which I have atm, so maybe upgrade.
<blockquote>Quote from griff on February 8, 2011, 22:09 This year is a bit different, having so many rookies on the bench appreciating to cherry pick for slaughter, and having extra trades as well. You want the very best 22 players in your side, not the best value for money amongst your starters.</blockquote> An issue at least from the start pre trades is what is the best 22? There is reason to think that a value team with an all rookie bench will start stronger than a gnr. Question is can they hold the margin. With good trades and bye management I think they can.
Yes to Swan for me. I honestly see improvement in him. Kicks more than anyone in the league so if he improves his efficiency a bit he could lift 5-10ppg. Collingwood shouldn't have too much trouble managing his rotations - he may even rest forward and kick a few more goals. No to Ablett. Upgrade target maybe but I'll be pretty wary. If you look at the graphs Ablett has started much stronger than he's finished the last two seasons. He'll be very tempting if we can pick him up Rd 10 for 550K but he may not be the best option this year.
Hi, first time here so be kind First of all I’m going for the league win this year but am struggling with selecting my midfield premiums. I’m looking for CONSISTENT 100+ point scoring players (der, aren’t we all you’re probably saying) that aren’t affected too badly by the byes and have a favourable last 4 weeks. I always pick Juddy but Carlton have a bye in round 23 (league prelim) so I don’t want to be trading him out as I will have Gibbs in my backline. Selwood was awesome last year but I’m unsure how he will perform without Ablett being there PLUS if I don’t win week 1 of finals I’m faced with the Geelong bye in round 22. Bartel seems underpriced but was vey inconsistent last year – will he improve without Ablett but once again am faced with the potential week 2 finals bye. I will look to trade in Ablett after GC have their 2nd bye and will trade in either Swan or Pendles after the pies have their 2nd bye meaning either Swan or Pendles will start from round 1 and will miss 2 of my league matches due to the byes. Cross and Boyd seem like great options and am thinking about starting with both as they don’t have a league bye until the last round and if I have to cop a loss it’s a risk I’m prepared to take. I’ll prob pick either Montagna or Dal Santo from the Saints as picking both would be too risky AND will their output drop away a little? Teams such as Brisbane, Melbourne and Hawthorn have easy matches in the last 4 games but am reluctant in picking midfielders from their team. Hard to choose midfielders from the Hawks with the edition of Bruce this year Burguyne last year Hodge now midfield option only and the likes of Sewell and Lewis trying to prove a point after nearly being dropped last year. Mundy and Jack seem like good options with no league byes but will their output increase again on last year? Interested in peoples thoughts.
Hellbent You only really have 3 or 4 premium mid choices, and if you go one of Swan/Pendlebury and Selwood, one of Cross/Boyd and one of Montagna/Dal then you don't have any options left. I wouldn't be making decisions on who to leave out of your initial squad because of a bye in R23 So I wouldn't rule Juddy out too soon as quite a few people here are You have 24 trades, just make sure you can keep enough of them for finals. Maybe 8 is the magic number for league trades needed.
<blockquote>Quote from Tylo on February 8, 2011, 18:17 I find Lucas' comment that "past performance does not indicate future output" very interesting. Its something I'm a big believer in but the vast majority of commenters seem completely focussed on what players scored last year - hence the much recommended policy of only picking 'proven' premiums. Eg. people have suggested mid premium spots should be saved for guys guaranteed to pump out 115+ppg yet only 1 player has managed to do that in any 3 of last 4 years, only Rooey and Chappy come close and they are both fwds. In 2009, 10 of the top 15 scorers averaged 103ppg or less the year before. Not as much turnover last year but I think it shows theres plenty of risk trying to pick the 'proven' premiums, just ask the people who had Goodes, ROK, Corey, even Ablett and Montagna dropped 10ppg last year. When we start with a limited amount to spend the last thing you wanna do is pick a guy who has peaked. Know matter how you lok at it, your gonna score more if you can pick guys on the way up. Not saying its easy to do but in a comp of 300,000+ its the only way to win imo.</blockquote> If past performance doesn't indicate future output, why the hell do we have an entire website dedicated to monitoring players past performance? Are you not using past performance to try and pick the likely improvers? yes, scores will fluctuate from year to year. but if you look at the players you've named above, aside from Montagna (who still had a very good year), the rest were either under injury clouds all year, or were played out of position all year and scored well when put in their usual spot.
trying to make a decision as to whether or not I include swan. Here are my options - keen to see peoples thoughts on which combo is better. Duffield, Grimes, Selwood, Montagna - $6,000 balance vs Hurn, Grimes, Swan, Dal Santo - $3,100 balance
Fair point, I do use past performance to try pick likely improvers. However I dont just look at last year and I take other factors into account. The players I named were just examples, you could include Bartel, Hayes, Sewell, Davis, Mitchell. The point is the highest scoring players last year are not gonna be the highest scoring players next year. Even 'proven' premiums are a risk so, other than needing 2 or 3 guys for captaincy, surely you would be better off picking players with reasonable potential to improve.
@ Tylo without trades you are correct. the fact remains, trades along with cash cows are utilised to get to the stage where you can afford the BEST 22 players for the year. Getting an extra 5ppg than what you paid for is irrelevant if they don't end up being one of the top players for their position. Therefore, picking your prems at the start, you want to make sure (as much as possible) that they are going to be in the top 7/6/2/7 in their relative position at the end of the year. My premiums for those interested: Goddard, Gibbs, Lids, Broughton Swan, Judd, Selwood, Montagna Sandilands (have Jolly but don't consider him premium) Chapman, Riewoldt, Franklin, Didak They have been chosen not only on last years form, but their form over the last 3 years also. Planned upgrades: Lake, Bruce, Enright Ablett, Hodge Harvey, Pavlich, Brown If I get the rookies right, I should be able to achieve this team by round 14-15, and odds are that 17-18 of these guys will be part of the best 22 for the year.
<blockquote>Quote from Tylo on February 9, 2011, 16:02 Fair point, I do use past performance to try pick likely improvers. However I dont just look at last year and I take other factors into account. The players I named were just examples, you could include Bartel, Hayes, Sewell, Davis, Mitchell. The point is the highest scoring players last year are not gonna be the highest scoring players next year. Even 'proven' premiums are a risk so, other than needing 2 or 3 guys for captaincy, surely you would be better off picking players with reasonable potential to improve.</blockquote> Of course you should look back further then one year. If you do that, every player you just named (aside from bartel who has shown gradual decline) has had one standout year and then reverted back to there previous averages. But there are players like Goddard, Ablett, montagna, dal santo, hodge, judd, chappy, riewoldt, buddy, Didak, who have on more then one occasion finished among the best available in their position
The topic of picking the best in that position vs potential risers is interesting. As long as most of your starting premiums are the top in their position i reckon it doesn't matter. The whole point of picking the A Swallow's, and the Jack's is that you get say 110 ppg, for the price of a 100 ppg player. Meaning the extra money can get you 10 ppg in another position. Then if the under priced players are scoring less than the best of the best, you can always easily upgrade them, while still getting those extra 10 ppg in the other position. For example, if Swallow can make the jump from 105 to 115, he is basically a Montagna, or Hodge etc. Only i got him a fair bit cheaper, and am getting points from another area using the money.
@bonesy You can't really say that about Bartel. His role changed, and he seemed to play on a wing and off half back more than on the ball. Now that Ablett is gone, he should return, and score much better. Also, last year he was affected a lot by his injured elbow, he even wore a long sleeve jumper to hide it.
<blockquote>Quote from Ruddy on February 9, 2011, 16:40 @bonesy You can't really say that about Bartel. His role changed, and he seemed to play on a wing and off half back more than on the ball. Now that Ablett is gone, he should return, and score much better. Also, last year he was affected a lot by his injured elbow, he even wore a long sleeve jumper to hide it.</blockquote> not writing him off as a player. I realise there's reasons for his decline, but from a purely statistical point of view, he was the only player mentioned who has made a small step backwards every year since 2007
Holey, on that philosophy you wouldnt have picked Judd, Selwood, or Cross last year - who all finished as top 6 mids, excluding DPPs. The year before you wouldnt have picked Montagna, Swan, Hayes, Goddard(mid?), or Dal Santo - all top 6 mids for the year. Your picking last years best players and paying a premium for it. You would have been best off last year picking Judd, Selwood, and Cross (all outside the previous years top 6) and upgrading to Ablett and Montagna (Swan arguably either way). Not saying thats easy to do but if you dont try to pick the new top 6, chances are someone else will get it right and will be starting a step ahead of you.
Call me crazy but I'm thinking of sideways trade to ablett around round 3 if he is performing similar to last year. Seems as though so many people have locked him in for round 11 I may just get a jump on some people! With the aid of mpp I could potentially sideways one of my premiums in chapman, goodes, pavlich, bartel, Boyd, swan etc as the odds will be that one of these guys will be underperforming. I think come the end of the year ablett will again be top 2 or 3 in the league, regardless of his team change. The guy is a freak and I think we will all tend to forget how good he has been the last 3 years. (still killed last year when oop)