ORFFA 2026 home and away points for rankings

Discussion in 'ORFFA' started by dmandrews, Aug 5, 2026 at 10:24 PM.

  1. dmandrews

    dmandrews Well-Known Member

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    ORFFA 2026 home and away points for rankings - part 1

    For the second time in 2026 I am looking at the ORFFA 2026 home and away points rankings, having initially done so in the middle of the season after Round 7. 11 clubs had an end of season points for ranking that was within one place of their Round 7 points for ranking including six clubs that maintained their mid-season points ranking. The clubs in this category maintaining their ranking were the four top ranked teams for points for, (1) Charlies Opening Spelunkers, (2) Gundagai Grasshoppers, (3) Gariwerd Cockatoos, (4) Cradle Mountain Devils along with (6) Wineglass Bay Packers and (16) Iron Knob Codpieces. Five clubs had an improvement in their points for rankings of one position from mid-season to end of season - Waikickamoocow Incorrigibles (up from 8th to 7th), Birdsville Battlers (9th to 8th), Wagga Wagga Wombats (12th to 11th), Lovely Bank Lilacs (13th to 12th), and Junee Jaguars (up from 14th to 13th). Two clubs rose multiple positions with the Venus Bay Vultures jumping five spots from 15th to 10th and the Nareewillock Nuffers rising two places from seventh to fifth. Three clubs fell at least three positions on the points for rankings, headlined by the Mount Beauty Uglies falling from 10th at mid-season to 15th at the end of the season. Other fallers were early season improvers the Larrikin Lagoon Lefties four positions from fifth to ninth and the Shark Bay Tigersharks sliding three positions from 11th to 14th.

    At the bottom of this post is an image with the 16 ORFFA clubs sorted by their points for ranking after Round 15. Several other columns from the ladder have been included and I have added some columns including change from points for to ladder rank and points for difference to ave.

    After Round 15 of the 2026 ORFFA season the average points for per club is 17,704 which works out to 1,180.3 points per game, an average of 78.7 points per game for each player in a 15 player ORFFA team. The average team score is 3.3 points lower than the 1,183.6 after Round 7 and the average player score has fallen 0.2 points from 78.9 points mid-season to 78.7 points per game at the end of the season. The team closest to this average are @graeme’s Waikickamoocow Incorrigibles, who averaged 1,169.1 points per game -11.2 points compared to the ORFFA average. The only other two teams within 40 points of the ORFFA average were @JC’s Birdsville Battlers with an average of 1,155.4 (-24.9) and @That KI Guy’s Larrikin Lagoon Lefties with an average of 1,151.9 (-28.3) to rank eighth in the ORFFA for points for.

    The split of clubs in the four brackets from Round 7 remains the same for the top and bottom brackets after Round 15 with the top two teams, Spelunkers and Grasshoppers averaging 1300+ and the bottom two teams, averaging 1,000 to 1,099. The teams that were 10th and 15th after Round 7 traded places at the end of the season with the Vultures rising from 15th 10th whilst the Uglies moved in the opposite direction. The number of teams in the 1,100’s bracket dropped from 10 to eight with two clubs, the Nuffers and Packers increasing their average from the 1,100’s to the 1,200’s. This resulted in the number of teams in the 1,200’s bracket increasing from two teams after Round 7 to four teams after Round 15. If you were to split the 16 ORFFA clubs into tiers based on their points for the four brackets in the spreadsheet would be close to the mark. It is the 1,100’s bracket that looked like they had played a game of snakes and ladders and there was a much weaker correlation between points for ranking and ladder position than the other three brackets. At the end of the season there was a pack of four teams, Cockatoos, Devils, Nuffers and Packers in the 1,200 - bracket behind the clear-cut top two 1,300+ teams of the Spelunkers and Grasshoppers. The gap from the third ranked Cockatoos with a season average of 1,253.9 points per game to the sixth ranked Packers with 1,220.4 points per game was just 33.5 points per game.

    At the end of the season six clubs averaged more than the ORFFA average round score of 1,180.3, a slight reduction on the seven clubs that were above the ORFFA average after Round 7. A young Lefties outfit were unable to maintain their early season pace of 1,199.4 (+15.8). LLL went from being in the positive at mid-season to in the negative at the end of the season with 1,151.9 points per game (-28.3). Despite the form dropping away in the second half of the season the Lefties held on to finish eighth on the ladder to make their first finals appearance since 2016. All six clubs that averaged more than the ORFFA average during the 2026 home and away season made the finals, however the last two club’s in this category the Nuffers (5th for points for) and Packers (6th), left their run extremely late and were both outside the top eight on the ladder with one round remaining. Despite ranking in the top half of ORFFA clubs for points for the seventh ranked Cows and eighth ranked Battlers both missed out on the finals. More detail on the changes from points for rank to ladder position will be provided in the Lucky Lilacs and unlucky Cows section.

    Seven teams improved their points per game average from Round 7 to Round 15 and nine teams had a drop in their average. In general the teams that were ranked in the top eight for ORFFA average after Round 7 improved in the second half of the season and the teams that were below the ORFFA average fell further behind the ORFFA average from Round 7 to Round 15, however there are some exceptions. Six of the seven teams that improved their points for average in the second half of the season were ranked from second to eighth on the points for rankings after Round 7. The only club in this bracket that lowered their average after Round 7 were the Lefties which have been mentioned in the previous paragraph. The only other team that improved their average from Round 7 to Round 15 are the Vultures who were the biggest improvers, up by 52.2 points per game from 1,081 points per game after Round 7 to 1,133.2 points per game after Round 15. Four of the five clubs that improved their average by more than 25 points per game from Round 7 to Round 15 were ranked in the top six for points for, Nuffers (increased by 46.2), Devils (increased by 31.9), Grasshoppers (increased by 27.3), and Packers (increased by 25.1). The other clubs in the top half of the rankings for points for that improved were Cockatoos (increased by 12.6) and Cows (increased by 2.8).

    Whilst the Spelunkers have maintained their number one ranking for points from mid-season to the end of the season their output fell 37.9 points per game from the extremely lofty heights of 1,406.9 points per game down to the still very impressive 1,369.0 points per game. Charlie’s Opening’s drop of 37.9 points per game is the fourth biggest fall in the ORFFA from Round 7 to Round 15. In the eight rounds from Round 8 to Round 15 the Grasshoppers had a superior points for to the Spelunkers, 1,359 to 1,356. This contributed to the Grasshoppers winning the minor premiership.

    Eight of the nine clubs that ranked eighth to 16th for points for after Round 7 averaged less points per game from round 8 to round 15 than they did in the first seven rounds, the only exception is the Vultures who are mentioned in the previous paragraph. The three clubs that have had the biggest falls in season average are Uglies (decrease by 58.8 points), Lefties (decrease by 47.5 points) and Tigersharks (decrease by 41.5 points). Clubs that ranked from ninth to 16th for points for after Round 7 that had a drop in performance of less than 25 points per game are Wombats (decrease by 23.8 points), Lilacs (decrease by 19.2 points), Codpieces (decrease by 13.6 points), Battlers (decrease by 6.0 points) and Jaguars (decrease by 3.2 points).

    The gap between the ORFFA’s top scoring team of 2026, @Bandit’s Charlies Opening Spelunkers and the lowest scoring team, the Iron Knob Codpieces reduced by 24.2 points per game from 362.1 points per game after Round 7 to 337.9 points per game after Round 15. After Round 7 the points for gap of 191.3 points per game from the top placed Spelunkers to the fourth placed Devils was actually more than the 170.9 point gap from the Devils to the last placed Codpieces. At the end of the season the gap from the top ranked Spelunkers to the fourth ranked Devils had reduced by 69.8 points per game from 191.3 after Round 7 to 121.5 points per game after Round 15. Conversely the gap from the fourth ranked Devils to the 13th ranked team – Lilacs after Round 7 / Jaguars after Round 15 had increased by 59.2 points from 71.9 points to 131.1 points at the end of the season. Whilst the end of season points for rankings didn’t have 10 clubs within 75 points like was the case from fourth to 13th after Round 7, there was a similar pack lower down in the points for rankings. After Round 15 only 69.9 points per game separated nine clubs for points for from the seventh ranked Cows with 1,169.1 points per game to the 15th ranked Uglies with 1,099.2 points per game.
     

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  2. dmandrews

    dmandrews Well-Known Member

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    ORFFA 2026 home and away points for rankings - Part 2

    Lucky Lilacs and unlucky Cows


    Only two clubs finished the 2025 ORFFA home and away season with the same points for ranking and ladder position, the 15th placed Uglies and 16th placed Codpieces. For teams that ranked in the top six for points for and averaged more than the ORFFA average of 1,180.3 points per game there was a strong correlation between ladder position and points for ranking. Four teams in this category finished one position lower on the ladder than their points for ranking, Spelunkers, Cockatoos, Nuffers and Packers. The two clubs ranked in the top six for points for that finished one position higher on their ladder than their points for ranking were the minor premiers, Gundagai Grasshoppers along with the Devils.

    After Round 7 seven teams from sixth to 14th in the points for rankings had a difference of at least four places from their points for ranking to their ladder position. This variance did reduce and at the end of the season only three clubs had a difference of at least four positions between their points for ranking and ladder position. The teams from seventh to 14th on the points for rankings didn’t have a strong correlation between this ranking and their ladder position. The Tigersharks ranked 14th for points for with 1,114.4 points per game, only 54.7 points less than the team seven places higher in the points for rankings, the seventh ranked Cows with 1,169.1 points per game. This gap is almost as big as the one of 51.3 points from the Cows to the team ranked one spot higher in the points for rankings, the sixth placed Packers with 1,220.4 points per game. The small points for gap for the teams from seventh to 14th on the points for rankings can partly explain why the correlation between points for ranking and ladder position is a lot weaker in this section of the ladder. In the seventh to 14th points for bracket the largest gap from one team to the next in the rankings was 18.8 points from the ninth ranked Lefties to the 10th ranked Vultures. The Lefties and Vultures were the two clubs in this bracket that finished one position higher on the ladder than their points for rankings.

    Six clubs in the 7th to 14th bracket had a difference of at least three positions between points for ranking and ladder position. The three clubs that finished at least three positions higher on the ladder than their points for ranking were the Lilacs (up an amazing seven places from 12th to 5th) along with two clubs up three positions, the Jaguars (up from 13th to 10th) and Tigersharks (up from 14th to 11th). Whilst the Lilacs ranked 12th for points for they had the best defense in the ORFFA to concede an average of 1,111.7 points per game, 12.8 points less than their point for, resulting in the Lilacs having a percentage of 101.2% - ranked seventh in the ORFFA. Three clubs finished at least three places lower on the ORFFA 2026 ladder than their points for ranking. The trio of teams in this category are the Cows (down six places from seventh to 13th), the Battlers (down four places from eighth to 12th) and the Wombats (down three places from 11th to 14th).

    After Round 7 the Cows had the biggest variance between points for ranking and ladder position of seven places, eighth for points for and 15th on the ladder. This lower than expected ladder position for the Cows was largely due to having three losses by less than 50 points each in the first six rounds. In Round 2 the Cows scored 1,368 points, 188 points more than the ORFFA average of 1,180, however they had a 29 point loss to the reigning premiers, the Spelunkers. At the end of the season the Cows average of 1,169.1 points per game was 44.6 points more than the Lilacs ranked five positions lower in 12th for points for with 1,124.5. In the Cows vs Lilacs head to head game the Lilacs lifted to get a 37 point victory over the Cows 1,240 to 1,203. A major reason for the teams ranked seventh and eighth for points for, the Cows and Battlers both missing the finals is that they ranked in the bottom five for points conceded. In the second half of the season the Cows slightly reduced the variance between their points for ranking and ladder position from seven places to six places. One silver lining in the Cows faring worse from a ladder perspective than a points for perspective is that they had a better mid-season draft pick. The Cows used MSD pick 2 at the pre-season draft very wisely to select mature-age recruit Marcus Hebert. Playing as a midfielder Herbert has taken to ORFFA football like a duck to water and is averaging a phenomenal 90.7 points per game, including 132 in Round 15 to rank equal 13th in the ORFFA for the round.

    Whilst points for rankings are usually a good indicator for ladder position there is also an element of luck which includes opposition performance in head to head games and win/loss record in close games. Whilst the Lilacs ranked 12th for points for they had the best defense in the ORFFA to concede an average of 1,111.7 points per game, 12.8 points less than their point for, resulting in the Lilacs having a percentage of 101.2% - ranked seventh in the ORFFA. The Lilacs finished the home and away season in fifth place on the ladder with eight wins and seven losses. Amazingly the six clubs behind the Lilacs on the ladder finished locked on 28 premiership points with seven wins and eight losses. If the Lilacs had one less win they would have fallen four places to ninth and missed the finals.

    The two teams that finished either side of the finals divide, both with a record of seven wins and eight losses were the Larrikin Lagoon Lefties in eight and the Venus Bay Vultures in ninth. The Lefties had the superior points for by 281 points, 17,279 to the Vultures 16,998. In a season with such small margins between several teams, arguably the two biggest sliding doors moments were a one point win to the Lefties in Round 11, 1,090 to 1,089 against the Wombats and a three point loss by the Vultures to the Nuffers 1,104 to 1,107 in Round 13. Four points more to the Vultures and four points less for the Lefties would have resulted in significant changes to the top eight with the Nuffers and Lefties both out and the Vultures and Jaguars both in.

    Maybe some luck will go the Cows way in terms of ladder position in 2027. The team that fared the worst when comparing 2025 points for ranking was the Wineglass Bay Packers, ranking sixth for points for and finishing ninth on the ladder. The Packers maintained their sixth ranking for points for in 2026, both after Round 7 and after Round 15. After Round 7 of the 2026 season the Packers were 11th on the ladder. The Packers 18,194 points against was the second most in 2026 only surpassed by the Uglies with 18,328 points against. For much of the 2026 ORFFA season it looked as though the Packers were going to be unlucky again. After Round 14 the Packers were still on the outside looking in, 10th on the ladder and playing a home game against the Gariwerd Cockatoos, ranked third for points for. With their season on the line Wineglass Bay rose to the occasion, defeating the Cockatoos 1,378 to 1,252 to nook a finals berth. Wineglass Bay finished the season only one position lower on the ladder in seventh than their points for ranking of sixth. With one less win the Packers would have been four positions lower on the ladder in 11th.

    The Packers had a running mate making a late season charge – the Nuffers. Amazingly the Nufffers jumped six positions on the ladder from Round 13 to Round 15, rising from 12th to sixth, one place lower than their points for ranking of fifth. The Nuffers with victories in the last two rounds against the Battlers and Cows booked their finals ticket for a fourth consecutive season. It worked out well that all six clubs that had a points for average above the ORFFA average of 1,180.3 points per game all made the finals although the fifth ranked Nuffers and sixth ranked Packers only booked a finals berth in the last round.

    It will be interesting to see how the 2026 ORFFA finals unfolds and which group the premier is in:

    A) Frontrunners - Spelunkers and Grasshoppers
    B) Chasing pack - Cockatoos, Devils, Nuffers and Packers
    C) The underdogs - Lilacs and Lefties
     
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