The talk on TS over the past couple of days about subs and underdone premiums - and the combined effect they could have on some tasty premium pick-ups very early in proceedings - has got me thinking about the importance of having one fast rising rookie priced play you are willing to slaughter very early in order to quickly bring in an underpriced premium. The talk surrounding guys like Hodge, Chapman, Ablett, etc, is that they have obviously had interrupted pre-seasons and are not 100% coming into the season proper. This has left a number of us leery in terms of putting them in our sides at the prices currently quoted. But it is very easy to envisage a situation where these guys might drop 50, 70 maybe even 100K in the first few weeks of the season as they work their way back to full fitness, making them hard to resist from an SC perspective. My question to everyone here is this - have you identified, or even specifically included - someone in your team that you reckon is a cash cow you can lead to the slaughter really early on in order to capitalise on these types of price drops? Is it going to be a tough balance - retaining the fast rising rookie for more cash or maybe slaughtering a touch earlier than expected in order to pick up Chappy or Hodge for well below market value? At the same time, this is surely where replacement rookies become invaluable ... let's hope there are some about.
Im looking at Bewick and Harris to do that job for me so i can get GAJ in. I was hoping Liberatore might have to wait 5 or 6 weeks for a game but he looks like playing round 1 so that throws that idea out of the window. Ive been looking at downgrade options for the midfield cows, apart from Mzungu and Callinan im not sure there's alot around
Lower and Duigan I can see rising very quickly if they continue preseason form. Irons is another who could make you some cash from a rock bottom price (if played early). However not sure I'd slaughter them if they weren't ripe. Would of course depend on the fallen premium at hand.
@ bigshow How come you think Libba will play round 1? And downgrade targets always seem to make themselves available.
After watching him play in the NAB cup he's the sort of player the doggies will want to get some games into. He's a tough, in and under player rocket seems to like. This may be a big call, but i rekon he may even put Picken out of a game.
Definitely, Chris. It is also lending weight to the idea of having a midpricer in either the forward or midfield in the hope they jump enough to be able to switch straight into a fallen Chappy for example. If only running with premiums and rookies, then to bring in a fallen Chappy, is going to require two rookies to have shot up in price. I'm also contemplating the idea of having a bit more cash on hand than usual, to perhaps give myself some flexibility to pick up a Chappy/Hodge early. But conversely, I don't like having too much coin not scoring points on the field - hence I keep going back to the idea of a single midpricer (would only need one rookie to jump up by enough to be able to make up the difference between a fallen premiums price and the midpriced players price) - if the mid priced player appreciates enough for a direct swap, beauty. If not, so long as he has held his value, it should work. Decisions decisions
Not sure about who will rise fast enough for the early slaughter, but when it comes to the question of replacement rookies Ben Jacobs from Port will definitely be one to keep your eye on - very highly regarded within the club and was in line to debut in the first round of NAB Cup until hit by glandular fever - but is back in training now and looking to play SANFL by R3 with the aim of improving fitness and form before an AFL debut - he lost 7kg during his illness, but has already put 3 back on through gym sessions, and feels much stronger
Forgive me if this Question is slightly off topic, however cant find a better place to post it: What is the consensus re: trading in 2 players on the bubble just before round 3 starts? 1. Obviously if it is a matter of trading out a falling premium there is the risk that premium you decide to ditch will turn it around (murphy's law), 2. If you trade a nonplaying rookie for a player on the bubble bubble is it considered too sideways?
<blockquote>Quote from RV on March 22, 2011, 16:28 Forgive me if this Question is slightly off topic, however cant find a better place to post it: What is the consensus re: trading in 2 players on the bubble just before round 3 starts? 1. Obviously if it is a matter of trading out a falling premium there is the risk that premium you decide to ditch will turn it around (murphy's law), 2. If you trade a nonplaying rookie for a player on the bubble bubble is it considered too sideways?</blockquote> I wouldn't suggest trading out a premium because their first couple of rounds were quiet, however if you've missed the next Barlow, then i'd suggest nabbing them, especially if the player going out isn't playing. In general though, you want to stay away from sideways trades, as you often end up with the worse player, or a flash in the pan type player. One of the biggest rules in SC is don't chase last weeks points.
Trading in players on the bubble isn't the worst thing particularly if the stats page tells you they are going up by 100k if they hit -20. I'd probably make sure you have absolute guns and hold them rather than take maybe guns and then go "oh crap why did I pick Mitch Clark instead of Sandilands as my ruckman" like I did last year. You need to start your team as close to the finish as you can get. This means you keep your trades to build your team perfectly for the finish line. If you're going for leagues that advice also holds true. It just mean for both that you will need a few trades up your sleeves for sideways trades to release yourselves out of players from NM/GEE/CARL/ESS in the supercoach finals series. RV for the nonplaying rookie sideways trade, you can also refer to my holding of Relton Roberts and not getting JPOD or Rockliff. Everyone including me said be careful of sideways trades and it stuffed up. Eventually I got in Phil Davis who actually starred in the early weeks of SC finals in both forward and backs for me, winning my league so it had a happy ending. Would have been far more happy had I got rid of the Hamburglar and got Pods and then ditched him in the two best trades of the year. Hope that helps RV.
Will be a bit of that happening RV with some finding their "bargain" becomes super sub . IE: Otten ??.
Ruddy there's my counter argument. Caveat emptor to be aware that it's probably not the best thing to trade out rookies for rookies willy nilly. The JPod/Rocky trade would have been about Round 5 when it was clear to most that Relton was a spud. I unfortunately did not see that incriminating footage of him eating a hamburger which basically ended his AFL career then and there.
Its does indeed, thanks Chaps. My strategy previously has been just get as many premiums into my side by round 22 as possible and save 2 or 3 trades for finals... After finding TS halfway thru last season, am hoping I can help others but also put more hurt on my league opponents! Cheers!
You will find a lot of people pencil in 2 pre-round3 trades (name needs a change this year, given byes) to get their rookies sorted. I'd steer clear, as mentioned, of trading out premiums unless their injured, as some simply start slower. Most, if not all of us are not going to be lucky enough to have nailed all our rookie selections perfectly. There will be a couple that don't live up to their nab performance/hype and consequently get dropped, and conversely, there is bound to be a few bolters that have snuck under the radar or perhaps that people took out at the last minute due to them not playing round one (pods/cliff last year). 2 trades to fix up the inevitable rookie errors is the way I usually go.
im usually a trigger trader, and seem to get ahead of myself at times when i trade. last season i restrained, and it seemed to pay off most of the time-the biggest advantage was that i had 2 trades left for the round 24 grand final. what i think im trying to say is that its also important to stick to your master plan of trades and as others are stating above, not jump on anything that shows life. you'll end up with fewer trades than you planned before you know it.
round 22 grand final* ive found that when going for a league win which ive successfully done the last two years it can be worth copping the early pain in order to have a few extra trades come finals especially when top teams start resting players and bottom teams start sending them off for early surgery
Hoping Richardson, D Harris & Lower all become fast rising cows, although all have a bye in the 1st 6 rounds. Conca could also have a quick start (late bye) if Hardwick gives him 5-7 in a row. Anyone think that's likely?
Last year I traded malceski in round 3 just for the fact he is break even was ridiculously low( -50) or something and didn't want to miss out on the money there, also when pods break-even was something similar I did the same thing, so in summary I will do sideways or downgrades to make money cos there is always someone in your team who doesn't cut it or gets long term injury
Lockiest of locks I'll have a premium go down in a screaming far can heap before round 3.......Never have I missed yet!!. always shove a rookie in when it happens and cash flow is taken care of.