Call Me Crazy..... High Risk/High Reward

Discussion in 'AFL' started by DC, Apr 5, 2011.

  1. DC

    DC Member

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    I was going with only 2 prems in my midfield at the start of the season but changed my mind on the thursday and went with 3...

    Now it got me thinking again...

    The midfield rookies are pumping out bigger scores then the backline/forward rookies (which was always expected) so why not take advantage of that?

    "IF" the trend continues this way the move could be well worth it

    Its against all supercoach rules to trade a prem for a prem but let me explain...

    Selwood -> Curnow
    Smith -> Deledio

    We can argue that,

    - Selwood could score 10 points more per game then Deledio

    - Curnow could score 40-50 points more then Smith (at this rate)

    Sideways?

    Take a look at the team...

    Gibbs, Goddard, Broughton, Grimes, Heppell, Otten, Lower (Duigan, Smith, Toy)

    Swan, Montagna, Selwood, Krak, Harris, Libba (Swallow, Conca, Hibberd)

    Cox, Sandi (Smith, McCauley)

    Rioli, Pav, Roo, Goodes, Franklin, Higgins, Tapscott (Darling, Richo, Matera)

    Adding Deledio in would make the backline very strong..

    The midfield would consist of high scoring rookies (Libba/Curnow/Harris/Swallow) - Add Krak to that list when he is not a 'SUB'

    Forward line is very strong atm as well

    Lets pretend these rookies will play enough games to upgrade during the season

    Thoughts?
     
  2. Stew

    Stew New Member

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    Welcome to my world..... this has been my strategy from the beginning.... however, I'm not exactly smashing it (3292th)... but these early rounds were always going to be a risk in giving up too much of a start to the stronger midfields.

    I think the strategy has let me down a bit due to the form of the premium forwards... it means I had to start with blokes like Didak, Harvey, Roo, Franklin, Pav, Goodes... a few of these are underdone, while others have just started poorly. Compare this to the form of the premium midfielders, and the rookie differential advantage is lost.
     
  3. DC

    DC Member

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    Wow only 1 reply...

    Thought it would of created more interest then that in regards to having only the 2 prems in the middle....

    The difference now stew is that we know which rookies are performing well and can add them to our team to increase value and output..


     
  4. AchillesII

    AchillesII New Member

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    Even though your trading Smith out for Deledio, you're not replacing Smith in terms of points. Judging by your backline, it'd be Lower or Otten that your are replacing with Deledio (Lower or Otten would be the one to move to the bench so that Lids can come on to the field).

    So you have to look at the points differential between [Selwood + Otten/Lower] and [Curnow + Deledio].

    I think it would've been a fair strategy to start the season with, but if you have Selwood and Smith, i don't think it's worth using 2 trades to move to Lids and Curnow.
     
  5. JMac

    JMac Member

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    I'm with DC & Stew on this and call the midfield my nursery this year in SC & DT. Know a few others doing the same.

    With exception that I am still holding Selwood figuring he'll be back stronger than ever in couple of weeks - I hope.

    This week I plan to trade Foley > Curnow (already have Libba, Harris & Swallow).
     
  6. Nick

    Nick Well-Known Member

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    I too went 3 premium mids and its hurting a bit from the poor fwd form, however I have more room for cows so it will hopefully pay off in the long run.

    DC personally I think its too much tinkering. You're speculating averaging that might blow up in your face. Delids had one good game last week yeah, but it may not continue. Selwood vs Port at Skilled you'd want him for. As you said high risk high reward.
     
  7. AchillesII

    AchillesII New Member

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    While it's a good strategy, I think it's not worth changing to it now.

    I would think that instead of using 2 trades to go sideways, getting potentially only 20 pts per game more based on averages, and earning the difference between Curnow and Smith, you could just trade Smith to McKernan (that's assuming you're not happy with Smith's output).

     
  8. SaintsBoy

    SaintsBoy New Member

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    DC, I'm also trying this strategy. I had Selwood in my team from the get go and still managed a reasonable 2,295 this week without the likes of Curnow or Heppel in my team. Thinking of downgrading Selwood for Curnow and doing a sideways trade of Bewick for Heppell mainly for the reason of adding some flexibiliy with the MPP to the backline and making a little $$$.

    Then next week with an extra $460k sitting in the bank I can upgrade a DEF or FWD who might have been a little slow off the mark for the season.

    High Risk High Reward... fingers crossed anyway.



     
  9. Lucas

    Lucas Moderator Staff Member

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    <blockquote>Quote from SaintsBoy on April 5, 2011, 11:16
    Thinking of downgrading Selwood for Curnow and doing a sideways trade of Bewick for Heppell mainly for the reason of adding some flexibiliy with the MPP to the backline and making a little &#36;&#36;&#36;.
    </blockquote>

    If you were going to do this why the heck wait a week, why not last week. Just cost yourself 100+ points.
    Now however it just seems like chasing the points.

    I would never trade a premium for a rookie.
     
  10. DC

    DC Member

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    Lucas, What IF that rookie is on the way to being a prem? (Barlow)
     
  11. SaintsBoy

    SaintsBoy New Member

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    <blockquote>Quote from Lucas on April 5, 2011, 11:51
    <blockquote>Quote from SaintsBoy on April 5, 2011, 11:16
    Thinking of downgrading Selwood for Curnow and doing a sideways trade of Bewick for Heppell mainly for the reason of adding some flexibiliy with the MPP to the backline and making a little &#36;&#36;&#36;.
    </blockquote>

    If you were going to do this why the heck wait a week, why not last week. Just cost yourself 100+ points.
    Now however it just seems like chasing the points.

    I would never trade a premium for a rookie.</blockquote>

    Bewick and Selwood werent on the ground. Libba and Harris were.. So missing out on 100+ points was def not the case!
     
  12. meataxe

    meataxe Guest

    <blockquote>Quote from SaintsBoy on April 5, 2011, 11:16
    Thinking of downgrading Selwood for Curnow and doing a sideways trade of Bewick for Heppell mainly for the reason of adding some flexibiliy with the MPP to the backline and making a little &#36;&#36;&#36;.

    Then next week with an extra &#36;460k sitting in the bank I can upgrade a DEF or FWD who might have been a little slow off the mark for the season.

    High Risk High Reward... fingers crossed anyway.

    </blockquote>

    Thumbs down man. This is the worst trade you could do, unless you are a clairvoyant and foresee Selwood getting an LTI in the 1st quarter this round.

    - You miss one round from a premium (say 35 points between a Selwood 115 and a Curnow 80),

    - You will have spent 2 trades for the purposes of punting on a forward, none of which will have averaged as much as Selwood in 2010,

    - Your overall team structure (ie. number of premiums) will be the same, or possibly worse. At the cost of 2 trades.
     
  13. Stew

    Stew New Member

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    Agreed.... that would be a poor move.
    One of the commandments of supercoach is "Stick to your guns".... or in other words, don't tinker with your premiums, unless there is an LT injury, or a Davis/Goodes like performance of 2010.

    We should get Walesy to dig out that old article on key rules again.

    Back to the 2 premium mid strategy... I got most of the rookie guns (Heppell, Harris, Swallow, Libba), but missed Curnow. He will probably sit on my bench this week however in replacement of Atley. I just can't decide whether or not to Swap out Hibberd for Savage. I think Savage may be on borrowed time.

     
  14. bobob

    bobob New Member

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    im thinking boak - curnow. and with the extra cash get a prem for backs or forwards. yarran - chapman or otten - enright. or something along those lines. i say go for it if your well out of it (overall).
     
  15. Nick

    Nick Well-Known Member

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    <blockquote>Quote from Stew on April 5, 2011, 18:42

    We should get Walesy to dig out that old article on key rules again.

    Back to the 2 premium mid strategy... I got most of the rookie guns (Heppell, Harris, Swallow, Libba), but missed Curnow. He will probably sit on my bench this week however in replacement of Atley. I just can't decide whether or not to Swap out Hibberd for Savage. I think Savage may be on borrowed time.

    </blockquote>

    Yeah I'd like to read that one again, and the one about trades netting you &#36;200k....

    I wouldn't bring in Savage. Smacks of Gysberts/Muston.
     

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