Well, this may not apply for all, but it does for me. Each year, the #1 draft pick rises in price every year. This year, #1 Draft Pick David Swallow, started at around $188,000, I didn't like the price and took a pass on Swallow, and went with Daniel Harris (upgraded later) for $125,000, 63k less then the #1 Draft Pick, and I asked myself this question. "Who would you rather, a first year #1 Draft Pick, or a player who has played the game before, and for 60k cheaper?" So for me, it's R.I.P #1 Draft Pick in my SC Team. If it keeps going at this rate, the #1 Draft Pick could soon be up to $200k,and you can get much better value for that price. Like this year Liam Shiels, started at around $225,000. Shiels is now almost 400k, Swallow is only around 300-350k. So next year say if the #1 is up at 200k, I certainly won't take him, unless he occupies my M6 spot (assuming he's a midfielder) , which is unlikely, as I start most seasons with 4 500k+ players, and 2 between 300-400k, less if there are any real bargains. This year i got Foley and JP Kennedy to for my 300-400k, Foley has averaged 90, JP Kennedy was traded to free up cash and to get Ed Curnow. Speaking of Ed Curnow, some people could've passed on Swallow, and gone with Curnow, for around 80k cheaper, who knows, mabe there'll be another Michael Barlow/Tendai Mzungu sitting at 91k-125k, and you much rather want them then an operpriced #1 Draft Pick. This is just my view and people would have many different opinions on it, but just thought I'd put it up here, to see if anyone is in the same boat, or im the completely disagree with me.
as a general rule I agree it's a good idea to avoid 1st year players with premiums on their price, unless there's a compelling reason otherwise. but the game's piss easy in hindsight. it was just as likely at the start of the year that Swallow is a great 1st year player, and Shiels spends another year playing for box hill.
Swallow was the safety choice. Curnow the risky one, along with Liberatore. I think they have all done OK, with no real differences between them all apart from maybe tempo, though they all have their hits and misses. What I find fascinating is how teams now need the bye to get through the season without injuries/rests where they never needed to for 100 years before that (outside the few years when a bye was in place)
The price of the #1 pick depends on the amount of players in the 1st round. Swallow was higher than usual because there were so many round 1 picks this season. I generally agree with your concept... Dustin Martin was the only high priced rook I started with last year, and swallow the only one this year (not Inc otten or Krak as not 1st yearers) But I actually think swallow has turned out to be a good pick for those that started with him. Many high scores, and generated some decent $$$, and has played consistently.
Swallow had the advantage of being a guaranteed starter most weeks with the GCS youngsters, so was a low-risk pick at that price. If you look deeper into the draft Gaff, Polec, etc haven't got the gametime and bear out Sainter's point. Once again though, it looks like the mature-age to focus on. Curnow, Duigan, Harris, Lower all excellent options.
Heppell, Zach Smith, Darling and Swallow have done very well in terms of points accumulated, Swallow and Smith to probably end up at the top of the food chain once the others have their second byes. They have shown form and resilience which other rookies haven't, including those guys above. This could also be something to consider for next when considering the GWS players. Who has played in the VFL, WAFL, SANFL and is accustomed to the bigger bodies and the pressure of the games because apart from Heppell, these 3 guys did last season. At this stage of the season, Smith for mine is the best pickup of all, then probably Swallow, Heppell and Darling.
@Anthak Didn't know about that, there could still be more this year with GWS's picks, and Gold Coast still have some picks too, remember how they ended up getting half of those compensations back!!!!
Off opic, but in the Footy Barmoeter, they have Collingwood on there and they say players are on the CUSP & BLOCK, don't they know Pies have the bye? I'm writing that down to see if it changes next week
I think the bottom line is the prices are based on risk. Consider: (1) Polec, Conca, Gaff, Swallow, heppel Krak otten etc. These marginally more expensive because, on paper at least, they seemed to be most likely to get games over the course of the season being at lower end clubs and drafted at the top of the talent pool. You get less of a price increase, but there's a much better chance of getting that increase. (2) Libba, Curnow, Darling, Atley, Bewick, Irons, Richardson, Tarrant, et al. When you talk about better value elsewhere, you're referring to the first three while neglecting to mention the others. These guys were a bigger risk with much better rewards. Those who worked, worked well, but the majority either didn't work out or had to be traded in because you never saw them coming. In short, the price difference is about security. If you'd chosen most of your rookies from (1) at the start of the season you might have paid more but you'd be sitting better now (ignoring correction trades) than mostly choosing from (2)
The reactions I see in this here thread is exactly why the cost of the 1st rounds draft picks have been increasing- To increase diversity! If Swallow was rookie priced, he would have been a lock in every team. With the premium price however, it changes the maths and increases the risk in selecting said player. And anything that increases diversity is good in my books!
If you read the forecast Sainter, they do mention the pies have the bye: FORECAST: With the bye, the Pies have plenty of time to plot how they’ll work in Swan and Jolly when they return from Arizona. Thomas will slot straight back in after his suspension.
I disagree. Last year I picked up Scully and Trengrove and kept them the whole year as they came pre-packaged to knock out scores over 100. Swallow isn't getting the same oppurtunity with GC, but No.1 picks are there for a reason. I'll continue to grab them to be honest