Look at Ablett's graph for 2010 when he cost $744200. The lowest he got to was in Rd 17 at $528700. By that time though he had scored 2057 points at an average of 129. So sure, you'd have gotten him a truckload cheaper but was it worth it?
Just moved some players about, thanks to the graph prediction and brought Pendles in, first time in 3 years. ATM: pretty confident with the team though not sure on byes. MID: Pendles, Ablett, Rock, Selwood, T. Mitchell, S. Gibson. Emg: Miles, McDonald. Trying to stop any major bleeding of money and having constant scorers this year than last (Judd for example big STD differences), had Murphys before Pendles)). Hopefully Selwood stays on the park. Will wait for the backline and forward line graph analysis and NAB for complete lock ins. Also rnd 1 rookie startups.
Am seriously considering a 5:0:3 strategy this year with: Pendles, GAJ, Swan, Murphy, Jelwood, Clifton, Horsley,Gibson. Reasoning being: - gun mid rookies are either too expensive (1st round Conigs etc) and with the compromised draft, DEF and FWD rookies have just as much upside (ref:2011); - am convinced MAR is the way to go given last year and once again the compromised draft; - 5 premium mids will give me a great start in overall scoring; - banking on a 1:0:3 ruck strategy to fund this; - am struggling to find more than 3 real reliable DEF premiums with doubts on Broughton role and teams strangling Hawks' kick to kick. Structure at this stage is: 3:0:6 5:0:3 1:0:3 43
@Port - i think Swan will get sent to arizona again (it worked so well) which means he'll be missing a couple extra rounds. @Deano - you've still only got 13 prems whiuch is prettymuch the same as everyone (some can squeeze 14)regardless of where they sit on your teamsheet; i disagree that the mid rookies are expensive, there are a whole pack of older rookie mids looking far better value than Coniglio...
Interesting theories going around about players and prices. Might have to run some numbers on value for money for set and forget prems.
I have 15 prems if you include Barlow, Zaharakis and Suckling. Only Barlow and 2 other premiums in my mids. Avioding all high priced rookies eg; Coniglio, Clarke as they wont earn me as much as low range rookies of which there are plenty this year. Mids are the most overpriced grouping and no shortage of good rookie mids to fill the spots with a new club and the surge of mature age recruits ready to go. Avoiding Buddy, Pendles, Ablett atm as there price will drop the most and I can snap them up later. If you want to talk odds, the chance of being first among 300,000+ SC players are QUITE LOW So I am interested in winning leagues, hence this approach. By just after the byes, I should have a squad of full premiums and I reckon I will go better than I usually do in the overall.
Well technically if they're a set and forget premium they can't lose you money because you're not trading them!
Im factoring the "General" this year with more trades up my sleeve. I was crippled by players being rested so my thought is to pick up the Midfield Prems at the front end rather then trading them in at their cheapest. Also think that by not waiting and all things being equal, my Midfield Prems will be getting 10-20 pt avg per game more then the the Mid-Range Prems. Dependent on when you can afford the upgrade or how long you wait to updgrade, you might have lost too many points and double this if their your captain. Similarly, how many times has your trading plan gone exactly how you set it out in the start only to change because of injury, suspensions, resting and positional changes.... Nope! Im spending up early with a bunch of rookies to show me the money.. fingers crossed.
<blockquote>Quote from thegob on February 15, 2012, 11:09 If you want to talk odds, the chance of being first among 300,000+ SC players are QUITE LOW </blockquote> But you come to TooSerious and your odds of overall are more like 1 in 500 - far better
@Dirty Dog- You look at the three NAB squads just released and count the best 22 players and gee it's going to be hard for a lot of rookies to break into their side. Even Richmond look strong with their regular 22. Do a pair of mids beat a gun-rookie straight in 2012? By the way, I didn't know dogs had fingers!
any love for the swallow brothers?? I think goldcoast will go better this year and David knocked out some good scores last year!! Not a true prem but can see around 100 AVG??? As for andrew well getting better and coming into his prime??
Andrew's a gun. Not sure how he'll go with the added captaincy, but if you're looking for a POD outside the top 6 then he's absolutely worth a punt IMO. Everyone's on Selwood, so Swallow will be a POD for the same $$$. Less convinced about DSwallow2012. Need midfielders pulling 115ppg+ and I can't see him averaging more than 100 in his second year.
The NAB Cup always reveals those tasty 100-120k midfielders. Anyone else considering a 3 prem, 3 rook, 2 rook (bench)set-up? First chosen for me are Gaz, Murph and Selwood but i reckon there are question marks over most of prem mids underneath, apart from Priddis who is the model of 110 consistency. Swan, Dal and Pendles are overpriced. Rockwiz, Swallow & Mitchell dont convince me. The likes of Redden, Daisy, Griffen are unproven ubers. My view is - if 3/4 rooks stand-out, they will make you quick coin and by round 6,7,8, you'll be ready for your first mid upgrade where the uber-elites will be standing out like dogsballs and the overpriced should have dropped to a good level
@Tommy I am not sure what you mean by "Swan, Dal and Pendles are overpriced." The price reflects their average points last year times a factor. Do you mean they will not achieve last year's average (plus or minus the factor for rookie upgrades) and thus do not represent value? Upgrading in rounds 6,7,8 is an interesting thought as it is pre the byes. Is your plan to have an unbalanced squad (based on byes) and rectify that with upgrades? regards chels
Remember it takes 2 trades to upgrade so I think spending big on premiums at the start is the way to go. It also means less players to upgrade as well.
@Chels You WILL be "bemused" come lock out if you don't have your team ready! Remember you've only got 55 minutes to get it sorted! It's taken me WAY longer than 55 minutes to crunch the numbers on numerous scenarios. Ya know, tweaking a bit of cash from here to put there...etc. Especially since rookies can be priced anywhere between $85k & $200k. You gotta 'lock in' your team, (many times, in many different ways), to see how you can splash the cash, see how it is going to be affected by the byes too. 55 minutes....aaargh! Just a friendly reminder : ) So, I'm going 4 prems in Midfield. Just think you gotta get those points from the get go. And now to weigh in on the Pendles debate : why spend half the year aiming to trade him into your side later, just to save $100k now?! That's crazy talk. You're missing out on all those points!!! I got smashed early last year because I was tight with the spundoolies. And those who had Pendles, GAJ & NDS, (when I had none!), just got too much of a head start on me. Yeah, it's boring when we ALL have the same premiums...but that's what Dream Team is for, right?! Field your Lenny/Barlow/Mid Price/POD fantasy dreams there! ; )
@Clutties thanks for the reality check, very much appreciated. What I was getting at was the air of certainty some have at this stage of the journey. I might not have expressed that the way I wanted to. Thank goodness phase one of the phoney war ends with the siren on Friday night. Cannot wait. BTW, I have done some scenario analysis. The worst one had me $200 over with a bunch of cut price rookies! So I think I follow what you are getting at. One of my fears is the computer crashing on lock-out hour! regards chels
Chels for what its worth I am not putting in a team in any fashion until at least two weeks from now, maybe even later. Just think we can over analyse combinations. It doesn't mean I'm not doing some trend analysis, and seeing who the next breakout targets can be, but otherwise, I think lots of this creating team is speculation, and the plethora of choices for many people can actually paralyse effective decision making.
I agree with Lucas however I unfortunately cannot bring myself to not create a team as soon as SC opens. The amount of changes I have made to my team without any NAB to back it up is ridiculous.. Next year I may aim to be in a coma until a week before the start.
And all season we'll be saying "oh shit, I had him in my team once - should have kept him in there" lol