I would go Gray given his run last year for his last 14 games and less opposition in his team to take points away from him, I think he is over his injury cloud and could have a huge season but I have upgraded him too Rioli hoping he will be a POD in the forwards this year.
Not really sure Gray to Rioli is a upgrade. Rioli cant stay out on park, and when he does he'll score 150 or 50.
Just gotta man crush on Rioli. Given hes changed his stride and a lot of people where burned last year by him I think I should give him 1 last chance, heaps of upside if it pays off but if not he will join the never agains heap with Higgins I still have the scars
I'm spendin a little bit more and stickin with the big pavlova.....hey that's 25 posts....I'm not a newbie any more...yeah!
Gotta go with Gray. He killed the second half the season and I hear he is a lot fitter this season and would spending more midfield time. I don't think his injuries are a concern anymore, but I still worry about the fact that he plays for an underperforming team. But then again, Port could surprise everyone by pulling a West Coast and making a huge imrpovement.
Adelaide (along with North) are the only teams to play GWS and Gold Coast twice. This would have to be a factor in the Dangerfield equation, on top of his natural progression, these 4 cake walks will see his aveage rise. Also Healy, Roos and Voss were discussing Danger on "Talking Footy" mentioning how similar he was to a young "Son of God." Ablett started his career as a forward and moved into the midfield once he bothered to train hard.
For the past couple of seasons, a lot of SCers have been picking Gray and Danger predicting a breakout season and been left largely disappointed (unless you picked up Gray around Round 13 last season). Danger's game against the Lions should be viewed with a degree of caution. Either the Hun or the Age said it was his highest possession count in senior footy, but it was also against an understrength Brisbane side, which is saying something. Another performance like this on the weekend is required before I make any kind of commitment. Gray showed last season that he can stay on the park and churn out some pretty decent scores. Bearfly says he's training the house down this preseason too! I'd have to go with Gray at this stage.
Gray turns 24 this month, dangerfield 22 next month, Ironbum just turned 21. Grey's "breakout" is overdue, Danger's is still a year away, and ironbum is still a baby. I was contemplating danger but after reading this thread I might go Ironbum, but am leaning towards Jets advice to go with none. I used to be in-decisive, but now I'm not so sure.
<blockquote>Quote from Lucas on March 6, 2012, 16:26 Is none a realistic answer?</blockquote> Best answer yet!
I understand that people are excited about Gray's last 14 games of the season last season which yielded ~104ppg, however can one really look at that period of games in isolation without discussing his first 8 games? Why did he average so relatively poorly in those 8 games, was he still playing up forward and was it the shift into the midfield that increased his output?
<blockquote>Quote from AngryAnt on March 7, 2012, 11:11 I understand that people are excited about Gray's last 14 games of the season last season which yielded ~104ppg, however can one really look at that period of games in isolation without discussing his first 8 games? Why did he average so relatively poorly in those 8 games, was he still playing up forward and was it the shift into the midfield that increased his output? </blockquote> A couple of reasons for Gray's slow start in 2011 AA - he had an interrupted pre-season that required him to build up his capacity to play in the middle during the early part of the season (if you look at Port's games from 1st half of 2011 you'll see Gray only had brief stints of a few minutes in the guts early on), spent about 90-95% game time up forward. However, when he started to get more midfield time as his endurance built over the season, he started to put higher scores on the board. Port's coaching staff have earmarked Gray to spend 50-70% game time in the midfield in 2012 (even when he did increase his midfield time in 2011, it he was only averaging 50% at most in 2nd half of season). Gray has now finally had his first full pre-season preparation of his career - no injuries & completing all sessions - an important fact to take into consideration here. Combine an increase in midfield time from round 1 with his proven ability to still score goals when playing in the midfield (see 2011 game v Essendon @ Etihad when he kicked 6 while playing about 65% time in midfield), it really is a recipe for improved scores. Add to the mix that he is now in that time-frame of his career where he is embarking on his 6th season in the system. However, many will still completely dismiss Gray as an option simply because he plays for Port!!!
Another consideration on Gray is that last year noone bothered tagging them cos they were so crap. This yr already port look a little more to be reckoned with, so teams may actually put some stoppers out. Gray would be a go-to, and to me he's pretty slow - so put a good tagger on him and watch his production drop. he's still a good player - but a lot of people suggest he'll sky-rocket without any opposition teams actually addressing that increase.
Or, to use a devil's advocate on that comment GaryReal... Teams might still not bother tagging Port because they are so crap and can win anyway, so Gray runs free. There are counter arguments to a lot of thinking on Robbie Gray. Certainly I think he's for someone who wants to play a more midpriced team than pure GNR Gray is not quite the antithesis of GNR, but close to it. (In other words a midpricer who you think will go well but not convinced, then he tanks and you're stuffed)
Cheers for that detailed reply Bearfly, really appreciate it, more things to now think about re: forward line choices Another consideration regarding Gray and Dangerfield for that matter is the scoring differential of players from out of Melbourne clubs between home and away, I haven't looked into Gray's scoring trends home vs away however it could prove interesting.
Gary, Boak was heavily tagged last year, despite Port's ineptitude, so why would teams worry about tagging a second Port player out of the game this season?
@Lucas The thing for me is who fits the GNR mould apart from Buddy then? There is no real upside in any of Goodes, Pav, ROK, Chappy. Whereas Martin, Zaha, Fyfe, Gray all have significant upsides IMO. All young, all in teams which should improve, and no real chronic injury history for any of them. I understand out of a price perspective, having all of Martin, Zaha and Gray is more a GMR strategy, but I'm not convinced its riskier than going Goodes, Chappy and Pav. Eventually the old guys have to drop off a cliff.
I respectfully disagree regarding Pav having no upside, he is set to play almost exclusively as a CHF this season where he has always scored at least 5 to 10 points higher pg than playing that midfield/forward hybrid role that Harvey used him as. Whilst he might not increase his average by 10ppg, he is still a dependable choice and one of the elite scoring forwards.