If Campbell gets upgraded I'll try going with 3 rookies, I feel safer with him than jenkins or Stephenson.
<blockquote>Quote from Lucas on March 14, 2012, 21:30 Can I hear a LYCETT anyone? Ok what about Gorringe? Would love it if Campbell got upgraded at the Dogs to throw something different out there.</blockquote> Both Lycett and Gorringe have pretty terrible job security. They're both second year ruckmen, the type of players that have never gotten regular games in the past (Kruezer and NicNat being the exceptions, but they're athletic freaks). I can only see Lycett getting a game at Subi if Cox, NicNat or one of the key forwards gets injured/rested and Woosha wants to get some development into him. He might get some games on the smaller grounds. Are there any Eagles fans out there that have a bit more insight into this? As for Gorringe, he's listed at 88kgs on the Gold Coast website, so he's liable to get snapped in half if he goes up against a Mummy or Sandi in a rucking dual. I probably see him getting more games than Lycett due to Smith and Fraser being rested more, plus his ability to play forward. I actually downgraded to him last year when Smith got injured, and he did a Relton on me and actually lost value (but I brought him in so I would have someone on my bench that was scoring)! But I agree with the sentiment of your comment. It would be good if there was an actual dilemma this year in choosing your ruck rookies rather than going with the Giles-Redden cookie cutter, which I and pretty much everyone else on TS are doing.
Lycett - who's an Adelaide Eagle, btw - played one game last year, against the Bulldogs. Played ok, kicked a goal from memory. He's a long term option for when Cox hangs up his boots. He's playing in a team with the comp's best ruck combo, and the big Q-stick is more than capable of handling ruck duties. Tango's right - he won't get games this year unless, god forbid, NicNat slips over during a slam dunk. Although he does have a shot at the NAB Cup final this weekend if Woosha insists Coxy has a rest.
hey guys i have put so much thought into this COX Z SMITH Giles Reddan with big o not living up to the hype i struggle to find that 4th rookie and if i have to choose between hamish kruza and smith smith has the most upside the best draw least injury concern least competition for number one ruck spot thoughts??????
2nd year blues might be a reason to overlook Smith maybe? Nat Fyfe 2011 aside, not many players in SC have a spectacular 2nd year. I'd say the vast majority struggle a bit in 2nd year.
Actually the truth is a little different Jason - in terms of Rising Stars at least. Doing an analysis of players since 2005... Rising Star RS Year avg: 67.6 RS+1 Year avg: 71.2 (5% improvement) RS+2 Year avg: 74.1 (4% improvement) RS+3 Year avg: 76.9 (4% improvement) RS+4 Year avg: 82.4 (7% improvement) RS+5 Year avg: 83.1 (1% improvement) RS+6 Year avg: 87.1 (5% improvement) RS+7 Year avg: 86.5 (-1% improvement) RS+8 Year avg: 92.9 (7% improvement) RS+9 Year avg: 84.6 (-9% improvement) Limited data for RS+8. Data for RS+4 in the last few years have been higher than 7% return. RS+4 players: Houli, Hill, Palmer, Jack, Rioli, Tippett, Ibbotson, NJ Brown, Kreuzer, Cotchin, Garland, J Riewoldt, Reimers, Brad Ebert, Urquhart, Grigg, C Morton, Dalziell, Carlile RS+8 players: Aaron Davey, Firrito, Rivers, Walker, Mackie, Moloney, Brett Ebert, Schulz, Seaby, Waters, Cross, Stanton, Cooney
Nice job Lucas! interesting info, your contributions continue forcing me to factor in new data, by early season I'll be top 100 or institutionalised ;-)
@higgins I think the analysis since 2005 supports Jason's claim that "not many players in SC have a spectacular 2nd year". They improve but not at the rate you'd expect (or need) from a rising star. In 2012, Smith will need to improve by around 25-30% to be a premium. Tough ask! IMO 2nd year blues has more to do with expectation and then disappointment at the result. As Lucas points out, they don't actually go backwards. They become typical mid-pricers. Only freaks could become premium in their 2nd year. At least HMac and Kreuzer have more runs on the board.
Does the 3 rookie 1 premo ruck situation rest entirely on Dean Brogan? I think its only plausible if Giles can get a pretty decent run at it without the chin stealing his points.
With or without Brogan, I think Giles' JS is as solid as any rookie so he's a lock. The decision on 3 rookies should revolve around the JS of other rookie rucks - of which I'm still struggling. If you're confident with the other 2 rookies, please share. Redden + ??????????????
<blockquote>Quote from AdelaideEagle on March 14, 2012, 14:31 Will Billy Longer play many games this year? Looks like he can kick goals. Could the Berger, Hudson and Longer conceivably play in the same game? I hope so, because I'd love to go with Longer-Cox (Just so I can call them the Porn Stars) with Redden and Giles on the bench.</blockquote> Longer's an expensive rookie, but he's looking likely for a Rd 1 berth. I'd be concerned however about Huddo coming in for him against teams with bigger-bodied rucks. The kid's undoubtedly a talent though. A whopping 7 of his 13 hit-outs (with roughly 60% time in the ruck) were to advantage. When he's strong enough to compete better around the ground he's going to be scary good. And at his current rate of development, that won't be long.
4 little spots, with 2 positions auto-populated with Giles and Big O.... yet still so difficult! I've watched Rowe running around in the pre-season and I think he's unlikely to make the Blues best 22. Warnock (injured rd 1), Kruezer and an improving Hampson are 3 key rucks for the blues - and when fit they might all make it into the best 22. Hampson was wrapping those big hands around the footy nicely up forward in the NAB (if only he could kick), and we all know the wraps on Kruezer up forward or on the ball. Blues forward line looks like Waite, Walker (injured), Betts, Gartlett with Mitch Robinson, Thornton, Krueze, Hampson, Henderson, Lucas, Gibbs... as well as Murphy, Judd, Yarran rotating through. Rowe looked like an under done KPP that will struggle to make his mark at the moment. Even if he fulfils every Blues fans dream (including me) and snags a spot in the best 22 as a permanent key forward; I dont buy that he'll be prolific in SC. Look elsewhere lads. Brad
wouldnt really say the big o is an autolock player, currently redden is looking a lot more attractive as a cash cow than he is
Yep Jason, Orren is leading a very ordinary bunch of rookies ATM. (Apart from Giles and Redden) @BlueDreamer, Auto-populated with Big O??? For mine, Giles and Redden are the auto picks. If you are going with a 2 premium RUC then O comes nowhere near it. PS: Beat me to it hayesing
@Lucas - I'm not disagreeing about Orren at all, but I'm curious if you'd put him in front of Redden? Long term JS not in Redden's favour perhaps?