Price Projections for premiums by round 8.

Discussion in 'AFL' started by fidelsfinger, Mar 19, 2012.

  1. fidelsfinger

    fidelsfinger New Member

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    Apparently there's a fixed amount of total salary in play.
    As rookies prices appreciate, most premiums salary must depreciate to accommodate,
    even for a premium scoring 10 points above his averages, he'll still fall in price.

    Based on each players averages versus their first 8 opponents -
    (where payers got a low score due to an injury or being subbed, I've compensated by counting their usual average to better reflect expectations)
    should they maintain their averages -

    Name --------Starting price --- Round 8 price --- price movement -

    Pendlebury --- 700k --------------- 623k ----------- -77k
    Ablett-------- 690k --------------- 651k ----------- -39k
    Cox ---------- 662k --------------- 566k ----------- -96k
    Swan ----------661k --------------- 650k ----------- -11k
    Dalsanto-------647k --------------- 540k ----------- -107k
    Murphy --------640k --------------- 558k ----------- -82k
    Judd ----------626k --------------- 550k ----------- -76k
    Boyd ----------626k --------------- 552k ----------- -74k
    Priddis -------618k --------------- 605k ----------- -13k
    Rockliff ------615k --------------- 507k ----------- -108k
    Mitchel -------615k --------------- 547k ----------- -68k
    Goldstein -----613k --------------- 459k ----------- -154k
    Mumford -------610k --------------- 496k ----------- -14k
    Swallow -------607k --------------- 542k ----------- -65k
    Selwood -------604k --------------- 622k ----------- +18k
    Franklin ------600k --------------- 517k ----------- -83k
    Sandilands ----600k --------------- 537k ----------- -63k
    Thompson ------599k --------------- 471k ----------- -128k
    Thomas --------593k --------------- 498k ----------- -95k
    Griffen -------587k --------------- 512k ----------- -65k
    Goodes --------586k --------------- 511k ----------- -75k
    Fyfe ----------586k --------------- 500k------------ -86k
    Goddard -------585k --------------- 536k ----------- -49k
    Johnson -------582k --------------- 523k ----------- -59k
    Mundy ---------580k --------------- 490k ----------- -90k
    Hodge ---------577k --------------- 506k ----------- -71k
    Watson --------574k --------------- 525k ----------- -49k
     
  2. fidelsfinger

    fidelsfinger New Member

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    This list is based on each players averages at the grounds they play on for the first 8 rounds.

    Name --------Starting price --- Round 8 price --- price movement -

    Pendlebury --- 700k --------------- 644k ----------- -56k
    Ablett-------- 690k --------------- 621k ----------- -69k
    Cox ---------- 662k --------------- 633k ----------- -29k
    Swan ----------661k --------------- 619k ----------- -42k
    Dalsanto-------647k --------------- 590k ----------- -57k
    Murphy --------640k --------------- 599k ----------- -41k
    Judd ----------626k --------------- 560k ----------- -66k
    Boyd ----------626k --------------- 560k ----------- -36k
    Priddis -------618k --------------- 569k ----------- -49k
    Rockliff ------615k --------------- 625k ----------- +10k
    Mitchel -------615k --------------- 635k ----------- +20k
    Goldstein -----613k --------------- 482k ----------- -131k
    Mumford -------610k --------------- 545k ----------- -65k
    Swallow -------607k --------------- 606k ----------- -1k
    Selwood -------604k --------------- 588k ----------- -16k
    Franklin ------600k --------------- 595k ----------- -5k
    Sandilands ----600k --------------- 529k ----------- -71k
    Thompson ------599k --------------- 421k ----------- -178k
    Thomas --------593k --------------- 590k ----------- -3k
    Griffen -------587k --------------- 481k ----------- -106k
    Goodes --------586k --------------- 619k ----------- +33k
    Fyfe ----------586k --------------- 524k ----------- -62k
    Goddard -------585k --------------- 503k ----------- -82k
    Johnson -------582k --------------- 561k ----------- -21k
    Mundy ---------580k --------------- 441k ----------- -139k
    Hodge ---------577k --------------- 543k ----------- -34k
    Watson --------574k --------------- 518k ----------- -56k
     
  3. fidelsfinger

    fidelsfinger New Member

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    I'd put a bit more weight on accuracy of v opponent averages than @ground averages,
    but I think both need to be taken into consideration,
    here it is averaged with 75% weight on v opponent & 25% weight @ground,
    so if a player shows 600k v opponents & 500k @grounds, i didnt meet in the middle for 550k, but 575k,
    or if a player shows 500k v opponents & 600k @grounds, it's 525k.


    Name --------Starting price --- Round 8 price --- price movement -

    Pendlebury --- 700k --------------- 628k ----------- -72k
    Ablett-------- 690k --------------- 644k ----------- -46k
    Cox ---------- 662k --------------- 583k ----------- -79k
    Swan ----------661k --------------- 642k ----------- -19k
    Dalsanto-------647k --------------- 552k ----------- -95k
    Murphy --------640k --------------- 568k ----------- -72k
    Judd ----------626k --------------- 552k ----------- -74k
    Boyd ----------626k --------------- 554k ----------- -72k
    Priddis -------618k --------------- 594k ----------- -24k
    Rockliff ------615k --------------- 537k ----------- -78k
    Mitchel -------615k --------------- 569k ----------- -46k
    Goldstein -----613k --------------- 465k ----------- -148k
    Mumford -------610k --------------- 508k ----------- -102k
    Swallow -------607k --------------- 558k ----------- -49k
    Selwood -------604k --------------- 614k ----------- +10k
    Franklin ------600k --------------- 536k ----------- -64k
    Sandilands ----600k --------------- 535k ----------- -65k
    Thompson ------599k --------------- 457k ----------- -42k
    Thomas --------593k --------------- 521k ----------- -72k
    Griffen -------587k --------------- 504k ----------- -83k
    Goodes --------586k --------------- 522k ----------- -64k
    Fyfe ----------586k --------------- 493k ----------- -93k
    Goddard -------585k --------------- 528k ----------- -57k
    Johnson -------582k --------------- 532k ----------- -50k
    Mundy ---------580k --------------- 478k ----------- -102k
    Hodge ---------577k --------------- 515k ----------- -62k
    Watson --------574k --------------- 523k ----------- -51k
     
  4. fidelsfinger

    fidelsfinger New Member

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    Footnote:
    Disclaimer -
    Due to being on the 2nd bottle vodka, if something stands out, double check my math on TS' player calculator.
    No responsibility accepted for miscalculations lol.

    Tommorrow I'll further tweak the list by factoring in pre season form & age of players being leaving, in, or approaching their prime.
     
  5. Lucas

    Lucas Moderator Staff Member

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    Selwood is the one there to look at.
     
  6. The_Swert

    The_Swert Active Member

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    This issue was discussed in detail by JPK's articles (http://tooserious.net/2012-premium-midfield-analysis-by-the-graphs).

    However as was discovered, you can get into trouble when discussing 3-year averages because a lot has changed in that time. Goldstein for example was a nobody 3 years ago and you can't expect him to score like he did in 2009.
     
  7. TheOnion

    TheOnion Member

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    Thanks FF, great info, though Swert's sage advice for the newer premiums must be considered.

    FF ....using the "75% weight on v opponent & 25% weight @ground" data, is there any chance you can go further down than $574K?
     
  8. revgordon1

    revgordon1 New Member

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    FF- fantastic work!

    Lucas - re Selwood, I just worry about him missing games due to admirable - but perhaps excessive - bravery, plus the impact of increased penalty for clanger kickers. I know with Lingy's etc retirement there may be more points to go round, but will Geelong win quite as many this year as last? Compare Selwood to say Murphy, who hardly ever misses games, has consistently increased his PPG every season and is now entering the prime of his career. There's only a $35k price difference between them, and I reckon the odds are high that Murphy will score significantly more points overall this season than Selwood. Does that outweigh the possible difference in price drop over the first 8 rounds that FF has picked up? It'd be great to get your thoughts.
     
  9. whips

    whips New Member

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    @rev
    Re Selwood, he only missed one game last year due to excessive bravery and 4 due to stupidity.
    I think the captaincy mantle will stamp out the latter and he only missed 2 games in the 3 years previous.
    His 2011 average would be 6 points higher (same as Murphy) if not for his Rd 1 concussion and there is no change to the clanger kick rule from last year.
    If Murphy is entering his prime, Selwood is a year younger and yes, there is $35K difference.
     
  10. revgordon1

    revgordon1 New Member

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    @Whips
    Thanks for the feedback...Selwood's back in! Now need to work out what to do with the extra $$'s...
     
  11. Lucas

    Lucas Moderator Staff Member

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    Rev...thing to consider with everything is the bye

    I'm thinking about just going bang and starting with a clutch of midfield prems.
     
  12. Oodles

    Oodles New Member

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    Fine work fidelsfinger.

    Going by this, apart from Selwood being very appealing it also points Goldy well and truly in the opposite direction. After a massive break out year last year you'd expect another big one but these figures along with HMac back he seems a definite no go for me.
     
  13. fidelsfinger

    fidelsfinger New Member

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    Selwood's stats look too good to be true but just double checked & they're right.

    Thanks for link to JPK's analysis Swert,
    excellent read, somehow missed that,
    I need to hit next page more often.
    There's such a wealth of info here.
    Walesy's Rockliff observation is spot on,
    I'll need to factor it in, where the 3 game average includes a debut season,
    for those younger premiums I might have to re work their stats to exclude their first year.

    The Onion,
    I'll go a bit deeper down the list & later include several other considerations,
    including walesy's "3 game breakoutitis" factor.

    Oodles, I was keen on Goldy too, then went off him from these stats,
    but now after Swerts comments am unsure again,
    will take another look at him & perhaps drop older stats from his averages too.



     
  14. demonspud

    demonspud Member

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    Fantastic work on the stats, just for going through them, amazing how vodka affects the workload.

    Priddis and Swan also looking reasonable at maintaining their cash. I think Priddis will go better this year though and Swan perhaps decline as he thinks about his retirement....(not).

    Mumford looks a little more depressing, thought Cox was going to be the one to drop more by stats, but think Cox likely to decrease depending on work load and Nic Nat doing more ruck work. Well hoping as I'm going with Mummy to start with....
     
  15. fidelsfinger

    fidelsfinger New Member

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    I'm leaning toward mumford now also.

    These are a few additions to the 75%/25% list, will tweak em a bit more tonight.

    Pavlich = -29k
    Scotand = -63k
    Deledio = -58k
    Wells = -49k
    Gibbs = -38k
    Redden = -100k
    Okeefe = -37k
    Luenberger= -42k
    Roughead = -45k
    Mcevoy = -99k
    Bartel = -43k
    Chapman = -22k

    Forecast for Redden will improve when debut season's removed from stats.
     
  16. fidelsfinger

    fidelsfinger New Member

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    Name --------Starting price --- Round 8 price --- price movement -

    * Pendlebury -89-- 700k -------Mid-------- 631k ----------- -69k
    Ablett------84-- 690k -------Mid-------- 644k ----------- -46k
    Cox --------81-- 662k -------Ruck------- 583k -------------79k
    Swan -------84---661k -------Mid-------- 642k ----------- -19k
    Dalsanto----84---647k -------Mid-------- 552k ----------- -95k
    Murphy -----87---640k -------Mid-------- 568k ----------- -72k
    Judd -------83---626k -------Mid-------- 552k ----------- -74k
    Boyd -------82---626k -------Mid-------- 554k ----------- -72k
    Priddis ----85---618k -------Mid-------- 594k ----------- -24k
    * Rockliff --90---615k ------Mid-------- 568k ----------- -47k
    Mitchel ----82---615k -------Mid-------- 569k ----------- -46k
    * Goldstein -88---613k ------Ruck------- 495k ----------- -118k
    Mumford ----86---610k -------Ruck------- 508k ----------- -102k
    Swallow ----87---607k -------Mid-------- 558k ----------- -49k
    Selwood ----88---604k -------Mid-------- 614k ----------- +10k
    Franklin ---87---600k -------For-------- 536k ----------- -64k
    Sandilands -82---600k -------Ruck------- 535k ----------- -65k
    Thompson ---83---599k --------Mid------- 457k ----------- -42k
    Thomas -----87---593k --------Mid------- 521k ----------- -72k
    Griffen ----86---587k --------Mid------- 504k ----------- -83k
    Goodes -----80---586k --------F/M------- 522k ----------- -64k
    * Fyfe -----91---586k --------F/M------ 503k ----------- -83k
    Goddard ----85---585k --------D/M------- 528k ----------- -57k
    Johnson ----83---582k --------For------- 532k ----------- -50k
    Mundy ------85---580k --------Mid------- 478k ----------- -102k
    Hodge ------84---577k --------Mid------- 515k ----------- -62k
    Watson -----85---574k --------Mid------- 523k ----------- -51k
    Pavlich-----81---573k --------F/M--------544k ----------- -29k
    Scotand-----80---573k ------- D/M--------510k ----------- -63k
    Deledio-----87---569k ------- D/M--------511k ----------- -58k
    Wells-------85---565k --------Mid--------516k ----------- -49k
    * Gibbs-----89---558k --------Mid--------538k ----------- -20k
    * Redden----90---557k --------Mid--------489k ----------- -68k
    Okeefe------81---556k --------F/M -------519k ----------- -37k
    * Luenberger-88--554k --------Ruck-------532k ----------- -22k
    Roughead----87---550k --------F/R--------505k ----------- -45k
    * Mcevoy--- 89---549k --------Ruck-------489k ----------- -60k
    Bartel----- 83---549k --------Mid--------506k ----------- -43k
    Chapman-----81---548k --------F/M--------526k ----------- -22k



    To address "3 game breakoutitis", well coined Walesy :)
    The asterix * players averages have been assessed using only their last 2 games versus each opponent.
    Wherever a second game back was from 2009 or 2010 & where an unusually low score was involved,
    I took some liberties in rounding up to a score more likely now.
    eg: where Rockliff scored 65 versus Carlton 2 years ago, I've given him 90 points instead.
    hopefuly 3GB bug fixed :)

    These figures don't yet factor in pre season form or players age.
     

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