Ablett out 1-3 weeks

Discussion in 'AFL' started by stkildathunda, Apr 23, 2012.

  1. stkildathunda

    stkildathunda Moderator

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    <blockquote>GC SUNS ? @GoldCoastFC

    @GaryAblettJnr will miss this weekends match v @NorthKangaroos after scans today revealed bone bruising & minor damage to his knee capsule.</blockquote>


    <blockquote>Gary Ablett Jnr ? @GaryAblettJnr

    Great result nothing serious, doc thinks 2-3 weeks but I'm confident I can get back earlier! Thanks for your support!</blockquote>
     
  2. stowie

    stowie Moderator

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    Hmmmmmmmm... could sideways and then get him back for Magner once he done moooo-ing. Lot of &#36; and potential points on the bench if he is kept.
     
  3. The_Swert

    The_Swert Active Member

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    I'd rather lose a mid than a forward at the moment. Ablett out means I can field either Magner or Shiel who can make a solid 70 or 80 as opposed to the weaker forward rookie who struggles to get 50 or 60.
     
  4. jibba

    jibba Member

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    Looks like another roll of the dice. Ablett reckons 1 week. Docs reckon 2-3 (possibly 4)
    You gotta keep him if it's 1-2, but if it turns into 3-4 those who have traded him out get the advantage.
     
  5. Dino

    Dino New Member

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    You would hope it is just 1 or 2 weeks, 3 weeks will be making the fingers itchy. He would be pretty keen to be running around in rd7 against GWS.
     
  6. chris88

    chris88 1000 Monkeys at 1000 Typewriters Staff Member

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    Nup -keeping him, not going anywhere. Not worth trading him out and in really - would a trade from Ablett to Macdonald, and then back again in 3 weeks be worth it - lots of cash to be made (perhaps &#36;150K) but is that worth two trades ... not sure.

    I'm going to bung him on the pine and thank the SC gods that I have NDS, Priddis, Boyd and Barlow in there already to help provide cover. Old Mac can fill in, and perhaps Treloar or Magner too.

    The big challenge will now be finding a captain.
     
  7. Thunda

    Thunda New Member

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    Quick of the mark Sainter, nice. Options for cap for round 5. Boyd>GWS, Harvey>GCS or one of the regulars, Pendles, Selwood, Swan, Sandilands and co.
     
  8. chris88

    chris88 1000 Monkeys at 1000 Typewriters Staff Member

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    Actually - there are a few captaincy options - especially if you have a tKilda (v Melbourne) Bulldogs (v GWS) candidate in your side.
     
  9. stkildathunda

    stkildathunda Moderator

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    On SEN bloke from Suns said it will be 2 weeks, possibly 3 weeks.
     
  10. TopHeavy

    TopHeavy Member

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    Wait a week for when Pendles bottoms out. If it looks like it'll drag on for a month, then do a sideways.
     
  11. tAdmin

    tAdmin Guest

    Two weeks, tops.
     
  12. AngryAnt

    AngryAnt New Member

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    Hun has him out for a straight 3 weeks, I quit.
     
  13. chris88

    chris88 1000 Monkeys at 1000 Typewriters Staff Member

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    OK - trades are worth, what, &#36;200K? Is that the going rate? What's the rate in points (the figure 200 comes to mind but I might be wrong)

    So to trade Ablett out, then in, you'd need to make &#36;400K on the deal, or 400 points, or a mix of the two.

    Would a trade down Ablett > Old Mac, then another cow > Ablett make up the requisite points or cash?

    I would think, at most, you'd make only &#36;200K on such a trade - assuming you have a cash cow near &#36;300K. More realistically, perhaps &#36;150K on the deal (the difference between Old Mac's trade in price and another cow, say, Magner, trade out price)

    Then, do you make 200 points on the deal? Maybe. If you simply looked at the Old Mac trade in, then you'd think he would average 70 over 3 weeks (210 points). But you also have to factor in whether your existing bench cover - Magner, Shiel, Smith, Treloar, Kennedy - would offer similar coverage. At least a couple of those options would come close.

    So in that respect you're not gaining any points per-se. You're just re-allocating points from existing bench option to Old Mac.

    I'm not sure. If he's out 3 weeks perhaps the trade becomes defensible.

    But that said, with the carnage with injuries going on right now, as well as byes looming, maybe the value of trades in the bank has all of a sudden increased. That is worth considering as well.
     
  14. chris88

    chris88 1000 Monkeys at 1000 Typewriters Staff Member

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    If you are going to trade Ablett out to a rookie, then this week is the week to do it.

    Thing is, you won't know when he'll be back, and won't have the best information, because of the early trade you will pull.

    Then we talk risk-reward and all that jazz.
     
  15. Lucas

    Lucas Moderator Staff Member

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    I think trade him
     
  16. AngryAnt

    AngryAnt New Member

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    Trade him to a rookie and upgrade to a cheaper premium? Problem is you might not have the requisite cash to upgrade back to him. Probably not worth it if he's gone for only one or even two weeks. His BE is still well below his average.
     
  17. presty

    presty New Member

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    a lot of it depends on how many trades youve already used. ive already used 4 so i wont be trading him. plus looking at my team and not seeing the little masters name would be too emotionally traumatising
     
  18. chris88

    chris88 1000 Monkeys at 1000 Typewriters Staff Member

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    I think not only does the number of trades you have in the bank have an influence, but your current midfield makeup needs to be examined.

    The cows haven't mooed yet, meaning most of us won't have done any upgrades. If Ablett was the lead premium in a 2-0-7 or 3-0-6 (or something simliar - add a midpricer perhaps) then you probably do need to lean towards a trade.

    If you have 4 mid premiums, perhaps a fill in from the bench or a MID-FWD or MID-DEF swap for a couple of weeks (and fill in from the defenders bench where there seems to be some real depth) is an option.

    Problem is, not a lot of people will have MID-DEF swaps available. MID-FWDs might involve Treloar or Kennedy and one of a number of premium forwards. That could be another option offering flexibility
     
  19. AngryAnt

    AngryAnt New Member

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    Worth it only if he's out for at least 3 imo, that gives enough time for some of the cash cows to fully appreciate and thus being able to use them to trade back up to him, plus you can jump on an undervalued mid premium now (Rockliff, Barlow, even Swan or Dal Santo to an extent).
     
  20. husslar

    husslar New Member

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    FWIW

    I have had a bone bruise on my knee before in a non contact sport and could not even think about running for 6 weeks. I realize he will have extensive treatment all day every day etc but i would be shocked if he didn't miss 3 weeks if it is in fact a bone bruise to his knee.

    I will be trading him....
     

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