http://goldcoastfc.com.au/news-and-media/news/ablett-to-remain-sidelined/page-1/ Gold Coast SUNS skipper Gary Ablett will again be sidelined for this week match against Fremantle at Metricon Stadium. Ablett will commence a running program in the coming days, and depending on how his injured knee responds to the program will determine whether Ablett will be available to play against the GWS Giants in Canberra in Round 7 or if GC SUNS fans will have to wait until the teams match against the Western Bulldogs in Darwin the following week. GC SUNS General Manager – Football Operations, Marcus Ashcroft said Ablett had spent the week receiving on-going physio on his knee. “Immediately following our game against Brisbane Gary commenced his rehabilitation program.” “After reviewing his scans our medical team deemed that Gary would miss anywhere between two and four matches, and we still believe that to be the case. Ashcroft said after Ablett commences his running program the club would be in a better position to assess his availability. “We will be in a much better placed to assess his progress once he has had a couple of running sessions under his belt.” “Gary is one of the most professional players in the game and we know he will do everything possible to get himself right.
<blockquote>Quote from jb on May 1, 2012, 23:09 You speak like he cant be traded back in?? It doesnt matter who it is a 3-4 week inj to a prem is a Trade. If you held last week your prob down Swans 180, JKPs 173, Pendles 140 or Murphs 118 or avg 152 Misses this week too and your down another say 130. Miss GWS game an its another 130. Total missed points 412. Misses another game bc the quacks were right thats another 130 or 542 missed points on your bench. Depends on what your aiming for & value you put on points/trades/league wins. But last week he had to go. This week he probably should still go. Next weeks a hold.</blockquote> It's not 412 missed points. Look at it this way - I was looking at trading him to Murphy, but didn't. So I had Shiel on the ground, which I otherwise wouldn't have if I had traded to Murphy. So the missed points is in fact the difference between Murphy and Shiel. So I am currently 37 points down, but 1 trade up. I'm sitting at 3-0 in my cash league, so can afford to hold Ablett. Considering the number of LTI's this year, I think it's a risky move burning a trade on what could be a 2 week injury.
@ Rev Its now looking like a 4 week injury, plus he misses Round 13 so thats 5 of 9 weeks he'd have missed (from first week of injury)
@thunda Who ever you trade to though will miss a game mid-year with the bye so not sure you can consider that when looking at trades? Regardless, I think it's ducks and drakes from GC. Would be surprised if he doesn't get up for GWS.
''He just hasn't come up as well as we'd like him to and he's probably looking at another two to three weeks,'' Suns assistant coach Dean Solomon told SEN. "Unfortunately the injury hasn't responded as quickly as we first thought it would so it's a big loss, but it gives a real opportunity to a few young guys to really step up, along with Karmichael (Hunt) to show some leadership out there and take ownership of this footy side.'' http://www.heraldsun.com.au/afl/mor...A+HeraldSunAfl+%28Herald+Sun+|+AFL%29
I think I'm gonna pull the trigger, but I know if I do, he will come back strong and will be hard to get back in! Oh what to do!
Yes I will be trading him out if it's at least 3 more weeks on the sidelines, for whom and in what capacity, I am unsure yet. Might downgrade to Horsely, finish off my forward line which is leaking the most points with rookies not earning cash, wait for McDonald/Magner/Shiel to appreciate fully then get him back in.
I'm really hoping Ablett's return coincides with Judd's price bottoming out, then I'll be able to have the biggest trade week in the history of the mighty Credmi Carnivores. Out: Curnow & a cash cow / In: Judd & Ablett. Would love to pull the trigger on that one, it's exciting just thinking about it.
Guess you also have to question is weather they will ease him back into it, would you throw the Captain tag on him straight away? I just cant see him coming back and putting up 130+ scores straight up.
If you are to trade him - what do you do - trade him down to a rookie or to another premium? What opinions do people have?
Anyone brave enough to pull off something like Ablett->Swan and Fyfe->Pendlebury! (assuming you don't have them)
I'm thinking very hard on that chris88, I don't like having too much money stashed on the bench not earning me points so I might trade him down to a premium and with the resulting cash trade up a fwd rookie to a fwd premium in the one go, I think that'll get me the greatest net increase in immediate point scoring. I am looking at overall moreso than leagues, it could be different in a league situation.
AA - Yes I'm not sure what to do either. I mean, I could trade Ablett down to Pendles, then with the dosh saved trade up someone like Hale to Beams, Dangerfield etc. But I can just as easily do that by trading down Devon Smith - a cow that is mooing - to a rookie and upgrading Hale to one of the aforementioned "premium" forwards (and I used the term premium loosely). Or I could trade Ablett to Horsley, then trade him back in for Shiel/Magner/MacDonald in a couple of weeks and make some dosh o nthe deal .... but that's two trades I'd like to hold. Decisions decisions.
Trading down to Horsely and stashing the cash isn't going to net you extra points however, the main aim of the game is to score points, getting two premiums in for a non-playing one seems to me the ideal situation. It is fraught with risk, specifically the risk of not being able to get Ablett back easily however with decent planning I think it is the best way to go. For example, I could go Ablett -> Kennedy and Stanley -> Beams, Kennedy should score at least 30 points more than my current worst mid rookie, McDonald, Beams at least 40 to 50 points more than Stanley given St.Kilda's run of games coming up. With Horsely you might be stashing the cash but how many more points are you getting over the people that have parked Ablett on the bench? Horsely also comes in next week for Coniglio who has made an extra $20k in the week assuming he plays. I am also hoping that Ablett comes back relatively slowly and scores mere 110s rather than 140+ games. I'm not even going to bother getting rid of D.Smith, a trade down isn't worth it and I think he will get more games and his price will rise once the 17 leaves his rolling average.
AA - yes, that's more along the lines of what people should be thinking. Agree that stashing the cash is a waste. Too much concentrating on ORFFA for me and not enough thinking about what should be happening regards trading Ablett out! As you say, the only risk is that you can't get Ablett back in. But if you are careful and plan, you should be able to because you'll have rookie cows rising in price and making you the money you need to trade Ablett back in. Maybe (for example) - Ablett to a Pendles (low as he'll get) or JPK at $580K, then Stanley (or, in my case, perhaps Hale) for a forward "premium" . The question then is, I guess, how to get Ablett back in. Horsley comes in next week for a Shiel perhaps (or Magner) so there's $150K. But from there you are relying on Ablett dropping in price significantly to allow you to trade up a mid - MacDonald, Magner, etc - for him. Ablett has a low B/E for his next game, so the risk is really there that if he has one "average" game he'll still get close to his B/E. Then, if he hits back with a "normal GAJ" game quickly after that, you won't see him dropping far from his current $720K pricetag. That would mean a second rookie downgrade to fund Ablett being traded back in. Not ideal but, its there for the risktaker.
To clarify too - a quick look at the salary predictor shows this: If Ablett comes back and scores 2 x 110, then returns to 140 territory for 2 games, his price after game #4 will bottom out at $650K. If Ablett scores 2 x 120, then 2 x 140, price bottoms out after Game #4 at $656K. If Ablett scores 3 x 120 then a 140, price bottoms out at $650K If Ablett scores 140 straight up, then 130-140 the three after it, price only drops to around $685K. So that's the data, the risk is there that he'll drop only $35-40K, or drop closer to $80-100K.
I reckon both Magner and Shiel have a fair bit more money to make and will both hit $300k in the coming weeks, with McDonald not far behind them, also hitting $300k a couple of weeks later. I am counting on those three players averaging in the 80s from now until Round 9 or so, I think the respective values of each of those players should facilitate in getting Ablett back in. I am loathed in getting rid of either Magner or Shiel in the next couple of weeks, they still have plenty of money to make.