Best Bets

Discussion in 'AFL' started by fidelsfinger, Mar 16, 2012.

  1. Oodles

    Oodles New Member

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    Definitely on the money with Gaz Snr. Went from an erratic superstar playing all over the place, or wherever he wanted to the greatest. Start of 1993 it was reported before the season started that he would be played permanently out of the square. History will show that he entered that season as a 31 year old and went on to win the next 3 Coleman Medals including 130 odd in 93 averaging over 7 goals a game. How did he not go close to Charlie that year with a record like that!

    Favorite highlight will always be the state game in WA after only a handful of games, the late great Teddy Whitten single handedly by reports, snuck him into the side and sat back as everyone witnessed the future superstar at work. Kicked 8 and totally dominated. If you ever get a chance to see this match make sure you do.

    Clearly the greatest player I've ever seen. As a cats supporter I got just as much enjoyment watching Senior week in week out as any of the recent flags. It was 12 or 13 years worth.

    Lovefest over (its gone down now)
     
  2. fidelsfinger

    fidelsfinger New Member

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    <blockquote>Quote from Oodles on March 15, 2012, 20:24
    Pretty confident Gaj will still be arguably the games best player after this season. He's from the same draft as Judd so presuming he's the same age. But to agree with you, that doesn't necessarily mean he will improve on his last 5 years work. It would be pretty big ask to expect that.

    My comment on Boyd wasn't that he would improve it was just that as a punt he does get a hell of a lot more crap stats than any of the other high posession winners. Has 30 on a quiet day.

    The other player who defies all age question marks is Adam Goodes. Seriously he's never been a favorite of mine but I do like good footy and that freak just doesn't seem to be aging. He's gotta slow down at some stage surely. But as a rule yeah do agree ff they do seem to peak around the 26 mark.</blockquote>

    Gaj is a year younger than Judd,
    born 94'
    & just as judd dropped by ... i think 5 points average last season, Gaj average might drop about 5 points from his last years average as well this season, that's no reason not to take him though,
    especially since BK brought up gaz senior, who experienced rare longivity, Gaj should still be a decent chance of doing the same, gene pool & all considered.

    & thnx Walesy, your cricket analogy is spot on, I remember logging in & backing India when we were down to tail enders chasing an almost impossible amount, i was stunned to see we were still 1.50 faves so put my balance on india @3.00, my m8's hung so much on me, 'you traitor!" lol,
    then 10 minutes later when the outcome was obvious they both jumped on themselves @1.70 heh
     
  3. fidelsfinger

    fidelsfinger New Member

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    So true walesy,
    I used to love those arbitration bets,
    where in rugby for example, being emotional patriots, I'd get 2.20 on england with a kiwi bookie & get 2.30 on NZ with a pommy bookie for much better than bank interest & overnight,
    but nowdays all the bookies declare arb bets illegal, like card counting at a casino, which is ridiculous,
    penalised for having a good memory & penalised for being good at math lol. (i can still tell you how to win at casino roulette ;-))
    I can find you a guaranteed arb bet of 2&#37;-3&#37; profit any day of the week by searching home country bookies prices in any international sporting event, but now all the bookies add in the fine print terms that arbing is illegal & bets may be forfeited, it seems the system takes great offence at the little guy kicking a small goal now.
     
  4. fidelsfinger

    fidelsfinger New Member

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    Time zone's the best way to arb bet now, each countries prime patriot betting times are 6pm to 9pm,
    so international sporting events price fluctuations are predictable, as far as firming and easing goes,
    in soccer for example, you'll see the wave in the graph if you examine betting history,
    you can pick a team & know the times they'll firm and drift, so can keep backing for & laying against, accordingy.
     
  5. fidelsfinger

    fidelsfinger New Member

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    <blockquote>Quote from fidelsfinger on March 19, 2012, 01:11

    This year I name the bombers to be the biggest improvers & the cats to be the biggest disappointers.

    best bets available now IMO =

    Cats to miss top 4 @2.36 on betfair.
    It's a good bet, the cats arent the next big thing, the ageing warriors rallied successfully for one last crack.

    Bombers to make the 8, also @2.36 on betfair.
    Another good bet for a multitude of reasons.

    Equal money on both, if only 1 bet gets up you're still in minor profit,
    If both bets get up it's 136&#37; profit.
    Both bets seem safe to me & much better than bank interest

    Another good bet =
    Giants to not get the wooden spoon @4.10.
    Sheeds & co are shrewd enough with strategy to snag enough wins to avoid the spoon IMO.
    </blockquote>

    A drunken gloat bump for my 3 preseason best bets :p
    Hoping a few got on.



     
  6. shortsandahoody

    shortsandahoody New Member

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    Yeah good stuff Fidel! Essendon and Geelong bets look quite safe, Giants probably still win wooden spoon, and are still favourites too, but you have good value..
     
  7. KissKiss

    KissKiss New Member

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    Thanks heaps Fidel, helped me pocket a bit extra this season.

    Also just wanted to add my little gloat in I got on Matt Goss to win the points jersey at the Giro at &#36;48, early stage win and couple of placings and when I just checked he was into &#36;8
     
  8. jb

    jb New Member

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    Hope Gossys alright - got taken out leading into the sprint finish overnight.

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/sport/orica-greenedge-sprinter-matt-goss-brought-down-in-final-sprint-for-giro-ditalia-ninth-stage/story-fnakze2g-1226355863419
     
  9. Tylo

    Tylo Moderator

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    Hey FF, just wanted to say thanx for the coin toss info. I got on the dees @ 3.80 for qtr time lead when they won the toss. V happy.
    I also got on port for lowest round score, I reckon bottom 6 teams against freo at subi will good for this all year.
     
  10. fidelsfinger

    fidelsfinger New Member

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    Cheers Tylo,
    & thnx for the lowest round score info too,
    I reckon you're definitely on to something there m8.
     

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