Hi all, I traded out Ablett and like a lot of people my priority was going to get him back in my team ASAP. However starting to think my team is like GCoast and plays better without Gaz, in the 3 weeks I haven't had him play I have steadily increased scores!! Might be more fluke though methinks. Anyway wondering if and when people are going to get Gaz back. I have the cash to do it now ($460K-ish in the bank) with one trade after a double downgrade last week. But obviously Gazza's price is prob at its highest so is waiting a few weeks the best bet? Or are others waiting longer til after rd 13 bye (dunno if I could go that long without seeing G Ablett on the field in my team!!) My temptation is that my fwd line is a shambles and could use some saved cash to upgrade there ATM. Then the danger is I don't leave enough $$$ to get Gaz back. What's everyone else doing?
I kept him in SC, but traded him in DT. My plan was always to bring him back in after his 1st game, and that's what I still plan to do. He had a high BE and didn't reach it. So he's a bit cheaper then what I sold him for. He could quite easily drop another 20-40k this week, but he could also score 150. It's just like the decision of whether to start with him. You start with players like GAJ cause of the points they'll get you, without worrying about their inevitable price drop. I'm still gonna bring him in this week, cause I want his points in my team ASAP. I have enough cash in bank to go Bugg to Spur, and Magner to Ablett. Leaves me with only 1 more midfield upgrade to go The only thing worrying me is his quiet second half last week. Is he fit enough to continue to score hundreds?
GAZ will not drop below $700k, is $20k worth the points you miss? Not even to mention the captaincy. He smashes the Dogs and Port, I can see back to back 150's as a real possibility.
Good topic homerj. I was going to get Gaz back ASAP which meant this week after making sure he was 100% and made it through the GWS game but at the moment am leaning towards waiting one more week. By doing this I can trade Ellis down and Bugg up and strengthen my backline. Also with Gaz's high BE I might save myself around $20K (not much but it all counts) by waiting one more week and then turning Shiel into the Little Master. The biggest driver for this is my individual circumstance. In the league I want to win most this round, I know that if my opponent gets Gaz back in he will get a donut somewhere else due to injuries etc. So, there is no real advantage in him getting Gaz back (unless he puts the C on Gaz and he pumps out 200 and the premium I get in the backline scores 60! - or something like that) risk I'm willing to take at the moment.
Gary Ablett Jnr is quite likely to drop below $700K in price. And it could happen as early as this week. His break even this week is 183. He plays the Bulldogs who have a very very good little tagger by the name of Liam Picken who has annoyed the crap out of a number of good on ballers this year. Brent Harvey would be his latest scalp. If Ablett scores his average this week - just his average, nothing more - he'll drop to $705K. Now, I reckon he may score slightly less than that. Picken should do a good job on him. But more importantly, I think Bluey McKenna is starting to realise that having Gary Ablett around the ball all the time and in the play is leading to a certain level of complacency among teammates. It seems a lot of the younger guys in particular have the attitude of "get the ball and give it to Gary". Fair enough, but its not an attitude that's going to win you games. Yet when Ablett is not around (ie, against Freo recently) the attitude becomes "get the ball and do something with it" - find a teammate or run and spread. I think McKenna will start having to run the kids through the middle without Ablett more often. I don't think he has a choice. But just back to basic averages for a second - if Ablett scores his average the next two weeks - v the Dogs (and Picken) and Port (and his old mate Kane Cornes) he will drop to $695K. My questions are though: 1 - Will he score his average the next 2 weeks - Picken is a good tagger, and Kane Cornes has done the job on Ablett many times before. He may not hit 130 against either of them. That will drop his price to $680K. 2 - After that he faces Collingwood - a tough matchup - and StKilda (Clinton Jones, et al). Again, not easy. Will he hit his 145 point average there? He may, he may not. If he doesn't, the price slide will continue. All these things are hard to predict. But one thing I am relatively comfy saying ... he will not reach his break even this week, so he will drop in price after the Bulldogs game. If he somehow does score 183 this week, his break even vs Port and Kane Cornes is about 135. Again, far from a given. This means that anyone who doesn't have Ablett or wants to get him back in shouldn't have to make a decision this week. They have time to check things out.
Unless you are going for overall (lets say within the top 500 right now)... two trades to save 20k and a few hundred points is crazy. If I assume you had emergencies to cover that say averaged 80, if you had him as captain you would have lost 440 points. Gaz average (150) x 2 weeks X captain double modifier = 150 x 2 x 2 = 600 Emergency 80 average x 2 weeks = 160 Seems like a dud deal to me.... if you have rolled the dice and traded him out, then I think you have to wait for him to bottom out before you bring him back in.... which may be a long time or you. If the forward line is a shambles then I would be sorting that out and bringing Gaz in with an cow downgrade/upgrade later in the year when you can afford him If you are indeed going for overall, then disregard everything I said! just my $0.02
Bandit I agree with Chris, and you on the issue of trading him back I think waiting is a more than reasonable option, particularly with the bye in the mix. I do think Picken could keep him down to the mid 120s, I would be shocked if he wasn't 130+ against Port, but Collingwood-St Kilda (AGAIN???) would be more likely in the 120s. I don't think I'd be able to get him for 600, but for 625 a saving of 100k, I think it's the best I can expect out of this period. Who knows, he could have a bad week of under 100 and then his price goes into freefall. What I hope is I gain on the captain's selection - not an easy thing to do taking on the PermaCapt as those Murphy owners would now know well.
I traded out, he'll be coming back in either after he has a couple of bad games so he drops to 650ish or something reasonable, or i'll get back Rd 14. Overall, he's been a good trade for me if he averages below 130.
I Agree with the general tone here, you shouldn't bring him back at all cost unless in the race for overall.
The other thing to consider is whether Ablett is actually 100% fit. Very quiet last quarter last week ... yes, GWS were on top, but I wonder if he's only 80-90% fit myself. If so, it could be a couple more weeks before he's 100% fit. Or, even worse, not until after the bye.
Chris, I agree. Didn't see the game and I don't work for the GCS medical department, but I was sceptical of his injury from the start and 126 seems like a low kind of score for him against GWS. Bone bruising can takes months to heal fully. Probably will be exacerbated by training and matches. So he could be running around not fully fit for quite some time, perhaps on painkillers to get through games. I am out of the running (ranked at about 1500) so I am prepared to wait until at least after the byes for him. He's not going to get any more expensive ans he will most likely get cheaper.
.......shall we mention that Gaz at 80/90% fit is still better than anyone running around out there ? Picken has 'held him' to 141 & 154 the last two years.
I'm taking the risk of waiting on him. 700K is too much now. I'm hoping he drops to 650Kish around or after the bye
Im with you Simon. Last two years playing Bullies and Port netted gaz an average of 134. And isnt he always carrying an injury concern. 2011 v Bullies round 3 141 v Port round 5 109 v Bullies round 14 121 2010 v Port round 4 145 v Bullies round 20 154 He didnt fade v GWS his first qtr was just superb. His qtr by qtr scores were 42, 28, 26, 29 After a couple of weeks rest its understandable he wasnt 100% and still got 125. Can only see that being around his base with only way being UP. On salary predictor the cheapest I can see him getting is $685k - coincidentally right on his bye - so would be a nice strategy to wait too, if that suits your team/league. If your not bothered about 35k ish and want that 125+ now then do it.
Yep I'm the same, waiting a bit on him to see how the knee looks, his positional changes (if any) and hope he drops a little. Team is travelling pretty well so its not a must have just yet.
its no disrespect to Gaz to anticipate he may have a couple low (er) scores ie: 120! Never forget that money not here is money elsewhere, ie: yes Gaz averages 140 but an extra 100k is allocated usefully around other players, so not having Gaz is really only a Captaincy bonus factor. The GC weak mindset is a new factor - i think its true Bluey needs to change the balance, but gaz in the forward line equals goals as well... though ball may not get to him so much... many conundrums. Thats why to me upgrading is always about bargains, never full-price players.
Good thread and I agree with the comments. At the time, I justified offloading him for Pendles as I made 107k. I knew at the time Gazza was at or near his peak cost wise, plus Pendles was bottoming out. If Pendles rises towards the 700k mark and Gaz does go to the mid-low 600s, it will almost be like a cash cow within itself and fully justified.
Thanx 4 all the responses. FWIW I decided to trade Gaz as I wanted Pendles once he had bottomed out. I stupidly had held Fyfe and had to get rid of him after he got injured AGAIN and had dropped $40K - so thus didn't have the money to go straight swap Fyfe to Pendles. Figured if I was gonna use 2 trades anyway to get Pendles (ie the usual one up and one down) then I may as well trade Gaz (didn't trust the knee) and make money from him and use this to bring in 2 prems (Pendles and Chappy). Only other option to get Pendles at bargain price was to bring in Pfeiffer who was only one on the bubble at the time and didn't want him in my team (glad I didn't go down this road now!). I had hoped to get Gaz back in 2 trades but if I get him this week it would've cost me 3. Thinking I might take Bandit's advice and get in another fwd premo this week with cash earned from the downgrades last week. Get Gaz back later once (hopefully) he drops in price. Please Mr Picken do your job well this week!!