my season has lost interest so am looking to next year. Does anyone know how $ values for players are calculated? I am thinking some on the cheap might be Matthew Leuenberger, Luke Ball, Nathan Vardy, Adam Varcoe, Menzel, Morabito, McIntosh, Sandilands, Robbie Gray. With no new teams next year and with the byes I think the value premium and mid-pricer will be all the go. Anyone got any others to look forward to?
Luke Hodge? Could be dual position, not sure whether that would be back/mid/forward He hasn't played on ball yet so maybe back/forward?
Sandilands won't be alll that cheap as he still averaged heaps. James Gwilt will be one keep eye on, with full year and another preseason under his belt after his knee reco think he'll be ready to get back to 85-90+ mark.
@thegob - it's on their season average for just about everyone, with a handful of players getting somewhere around a 10-40% discount if they were severely affected by injury. I think if they didn't play at all it'd go off their previous year's average and they'd probably get a discount. The difficult part is that most of the 'disappointments' from this year will be underpriced next year and therefore, almost by definition, they are possibly good picks for anyone prepared to go to the well again - eg, Martin, Rockliff, maybe Daisy Thomas. The same could have been said of N.Roo at the start of this year who, while he hasn't been elite, would have been a pretty good pick for anyone wanting a little midprice action. An interesting one will be Beams. You'd have to think he'll be a pure mid but if you think he'll keep up his current form he's pickable as a pure mid and he did start with two 60s... not much of a reduction in price but that could be a tie-breaker for some people.
Only 6 players have dropped in value more than Rockliff, and Rockliff is the dearest of these. Surely he will go up in value next year, but after suffering him this year who will come back for seconds?
If you go to the stats page, on far right of the table it has projected price for next year - http://tooserious.net/stats.php
I would be a little hesitant with Gray next year. After undergoing the knee reconstruction & missing most of the season I think he'll be eased back into it next season mainly as a forward with only brief spells on ball until he shows that his knee can handle more mid-field action. However, he's virtually guaranteed of a price discount for 2013, and with his proven ability to take strong contested marks up forward & capable of kicking a bag of goals, if he can average mid 80's to 90's early he could be an astute pick if the price is right!!!
Pittard for Port will be another one. He should get regular games next year. Has only played one game this week and that was only for a qtr before he got injured.
<blockquote>Quote from Bearfly on August 14, 2012, 13:25 I would be a little hesitant with Gray next year. After undergoing the knee reconstruction & missing most of the season I think he'll be eased back into it next season mainly as a forward with only brief spells on ball until he shows that his knee can handle more mid-field action. However, he's virtually guaranteed of a price discount for 2013, and with his proven ability to take strong contested marks up forward & capable of kicking a bag of goals, if he can average mid 80's to 90's early he could be an astute pick if the price is right!!!</blockquote> Spot on, only someone as awesome as Lenny can dominant coming back from knee reco
Le cras will be super cheap and probably one of the first picked. other guys coming back from knee recos will also be cheap if they dont get back this year, players like krakeour mccaffer and travis varcoe, dont think hes played a game either this year.
sorting the players out by money lost this year is interesting reading in regards to their projected score next year. Embley currently $120k!
Yep i suffered through Rockliff's 60's and 70's whilst watching other mids tearing it up with 120's and 130's. I for one won't be going anywhere near him again, too many better options out there. Still can't work out if Rockliff is carrying some kind of injury but if i was to ever pick up another Lion midfielder it would be Jack Redden rather than Rockliff.
<blockquote>Quote from Steve on August 14, 2012, 13:31 Pittard for Port will be another one. He should get regular games next year. Has only played one game this week and that was only for a qtr before he got injured. </blockquote> Completely forgot about Jasper Steve!!! If Port's new coach uses him on the wing where his accurate, penetrating kick would most benefit the team, then he also be an astute pick!!!
I've already locked in Leuenberger as mid priced R2 If this year's anything to go by, it is that, the cheaper you start in the ruck, the better!
<blockquote>Quote from jibba on August 14, 2012, 14:05 I've already locked in Leuenberger as mid priced R2 If this year's anything to go by, it is that, the cheaper you start in the ruck, the better! </blockquote> Spot on, I daresay the days of set and forget are over. That is, the days of spendning 1.2mil on two rucks and 'forgetting' about them is over. Started with HMac and Hale this year, couldn't be happier! Jacobs was a perfect sideways for HMac when he went down also. The key is identifying a ruck who isn't a big name, but will shoulder the bulk, or in some cases all, the ruck duties in their team. Giles, Jacobs, McEvoy some perfect examples this year. But it does come with some risk, ask the people who had Kreuzer, Z.Smith, Goldstein (notice how most of those are very young players still and perhaps not fully developed, perhaps apart from Goldstein). Just have to combine your good judgement with a bit of luck
Okay everyone, did a quick list based on the next year's price in the stats column. Thanks stkildathunda for pointing that out to me. I made a list of noteworthy players that will significantly drop in value next year. List does not include current mid-pricers I expect to take the next step next year. Only players that will be cheap, either offering value as a mid-pricer for the majority or all of the season, or a 'better-than-rookie' option as a cash cow. You will see what I mean by some of the players named. Obviously some bigger risks/questions associated with some players, but it is a 'noteworthy' list, not a 'must have' list after all. Next year's projected price in brackets. (*) indicates my best value picks DEFENDERS Pederson (220k) Ellis (Hawks) (278k) Yarran (359k) Pittard (Port) (100k) Gwilt (318k) Docherty M/D (100k)* MIDFIELDERS Hodge (348k)* Embley (121k)* J.Gysberts (104k)* Peake (219k) Bateman (125k) Prismall (184k)* J.Van Berlo (100k) Morabito (100k)* Kavanagh (100k) Kerridge (100k) RUCKS (Hello starting rucks next year) Leuenberger (298k)* Vardy (175k)* FWD'S Macaffer (150k)* Winderlich F/M (244k)* Kennedy (WCE) (292k)* Jurrah (159k)* Nicoski (243k) Krakouer (253k) LeCras (280k) Gray F/M (299k)* Varcoe F/M (233k)* Menzel (204k)* Fyfe F/M (411k)* Sylvia F/M (391k) Clearly if some of these players play more games this year, their prices will change. Please let me know if I have forgotten any players.