Crunch time.

Discussion in 'AFL' started by H_Dons, Apr 10, 2013.

  1. H_Dons

    H_Dons New Member

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    Decisions decisions. The decision I make this week will be the making or breaking of my season. Currently 469th, and going for overall (as seriously as possible I guess). Team: (8.5k in the bank) DEF- Goddard, Gibbs, Heppell, Hibberd, Goodes, Pittard (Stevenson, Terlich) MID- Ablett, Swan, Swallow, Fyfe, Stevens, O'Meara, Wines, Viney (Crouch, K.Mitchell) RUCK- Jacobs, Mumford (Rowe, Currie) FWD- Franklin, Cox, Bartel, Rockliff, Varcoe, Karnezis (Neade, Macaffer) NOTES- Had to trade in Monfries for Varcoe before round one, so I had the cash to turn Leuenberger into a decent ruck - Mumford -Defence line is only line I have completely counted out changing this week. -After round 3, I am trading Mumford for Leuenberger, which will get me an extra 180k Okay, so I want to get Kennedy in from the eagles. And I want to get rid of either Varcoe or Karnezis. Varcoe is set to rise 10-20k and Karnezis to fall 10-20k. I see Karnezis as having more value long term, he has a higher ceiling than Varcoe who I think will never score more than 70-80. But if Karnezis gets the vest again, he might have to go. But to get Kennedy, I need to trade K.Mitchell for Dwyer to get the required cash. My other option is to trade out Franklin (avoiding his 50k price drop), then trade Currie for Blicavs, if necessary. This, added onto the 180k mentioned above, gives me enough money to do an early upgrade on Koby Stevens, turning him into an elite mid after round 3. Which option do you think is better? Get Dwyer in and sacrifice Varcoe or Karnezis to get Kennedy? Or downgrade Franklin to Kennedy, getting me an elite mid after round 3. I'm going for overall. Having 30 trades instead of 24 makes the Franklin option not entirely crazy. Obviously I will have to get Buddy back in at some point, especially once the Hawks draw softens up in a few weeks. Any opinions or suggestions on any of my proposed moves would be much appreciated.
     
  2. Fitzy

    Fitzy Guest

    H_Dons wrote:
    Decisions decisions. The decision I make this week will be the making or breaking of my season. Currently 469th, and going for overall (as seriously as possible I guess). Team: (8.5k in the bank) DEF- Goddard, Gibbs, Heppell, Hibberd, Goodes, Pittard (Stevenson, Terlich) MID- Ablett, Swan, Swallow, Fyfe, Stevens, O'Meara, Wines, Viney (Crouch, K.Mitchell) RUCK- Jacobs, Mumford (Rowe, Currie) FWD- Franklin, Cox, Bartel, Rockliff, Varcoe, Karnezis (Neade, Macaffer) NOTES- Had to trade in Monfries for Varcoe before round one, so I had the cash to turn Leuenberger into a decent ruck - Mumford -Defence line is only line I have completely counted out changing this week. -After round 3, I am trading Mumford for Leuenberger, which will get me an extra 180k Okay, so I want to get Kennedy in from the eagles. And I want to get rid of either Varcoe or Karnezis. Varcoe is set to rise 10-20k and Karnezis to fall 10-20k. I see Karnezis as having more value long term, he has a higher ceiling than Varcoe who I think will never score more than 70-80. But if Karnezis gets the vest again, he might have to go. But to get Kennedy, I need to trade K.Mitchell for Dwyer to get the required cash. My other option is to trade out Franklin (avoiding his 50k price drop), then trade Currie for Blicavs, if necessary. This, added onto the 180k mentioned above, gives me enough money to do an early upgrade on Koby Stevens, turning him into an elite mid after round 3. Which option do you think is better? Get Dwyer in and sacrifice Varcoe or Karnezis to get Kennedy? Or downgrade Franklin to Kennedy, getting me an elite mid after round 3. I'm going for overall. Having 30 trades instead of 24 makes the Franklin option not entirely crazy. Obviously I will have to get Buddy back in at some point, especially once the Hawks draw softens up in a few weeks. Any opinions or suggestions on any of my proposed moves would be much appreciated. In my opinion, I would downgrade Franklin with the aim of getting him in after round 6-7 when his fixture eases up, so I say the 2nd option :) Sure there are pros and cons to both options though that I havn't looked into. Good luck!
     
  3. Mad_Mattigan

    Mad_Mattigan Member

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    You look like you're in a similar position to myself...
    You need to consider your strategy from every angle. If you are genuinely going for overall, then you need to maximise your points return in every single round. Why did you select Franklin from the start if you were worried about his scoring? He did ton up after all, just this week. For me, I'd dump Mitchell for Dwyer, as (assuming he plays) this is a guaranteed earner in the short term, and cost you nothing in terms of scoring potential. It also opens your MPP link to move Varcoe to wherever you need him when you do choose to chop him.
    Karnezis vs Varcoe? Fifty-fifty in my book. Varcoe does have the advantage of his MPP, and hasn't been subbed yet. Karnezis might go bigger, but I wouldn't worry about their short term losses or gains. They might bounce 10-20k, or they might ton up and go up in value. Kennedy will go up around 40 grand this week, so make a call.

     
  4. Stampede

    Stampede Member

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    [span style='font-family: Arial; font-size: 13px;]If you trade Mummy for Leuenberger this week, I reckon you'll have just enough cash to upgrade Karnezis to Watts........... no sorry, I shouldn't even joke about that..! <div style='color: #222222; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;][span style='font-family: Arial; font-size: 13px;]
    <div style='color: #222222; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;][span style='font-family: Arial; font-size: 13px;]I reckon your choice is made for you if Mitchell and/or Karny get the vest, then you could bring in Dwyer and Kennedy for those two. <div style='color: #222222; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;][span style='font-family: Arial; font-size: 13px;]
    <div style='color: #222222; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;][span style='font-family: Arial; font-size: 13px;]If not, have you considered booting both Varcoe and Karnezis for Dwyer and Kennedy and pocketing the cash to add to the $180k from next week's Mummy-&amp;gt;Leuenberger trade to go towards your Stevens-&amp;gt;premium mid? Only problem is I think you won't quite be able to reach an elite mid off the top of my head. Just an option.
     
  5. J_C

    J_C Guest

    I'd also like to bring in JJK but I'm $6,300 short of a straight swap with Karnezis. :( My team's going ok (with the exception of Karnezis) so I'm not sure whether I should just leave it and accept that you can't get them all, or whether I should make a rookie adjustment to free up the required cash. I generally don't go sideways with mid-pricers, probably because I don't often pick them, but Kennedy seems like a good option this year. If I were you, I'd look at getting rid of Mitchell as he'll be heading back to the rookie list at some stage and Hinkley also called him the ideal sub. If you want Kennedy then bring in Dwyer. You also have the chance to see if either Varcoe or Karnezis is the sub before choosing which one should go, as they play at the same time on Sat night.
     
  6. is don is good

    is don is good New Member

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    H_Dons, I like ur risky thinking. If u go buddy 2 jjk u r 100k to the good. Hawks v pies or WC v dees? I know where I think the majority of the points should b going this week. If WC can hit there straps, they will win by close 2 100 as well, so jjk could go huge. With the WC game on early, u can take the punt &amp; put the vc on jjk. In my head those 6 extra trades r freebies, so u can do things u wouldnt normally do. Look forward 2 hearing how u go this w/e &amp; beyond. Good luck
     
  7. H_Dons

    H_Dons New Member

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    Thank you all for the feedback, every single bit of it excellent and given considerable thought. Whatever choice I go with, the teams will have a significant say in what happens, as depending who Collingwood and Port get back from injury, Dwyer and Mitchell might not be safe, let alone Karnezis. As West Coast play Saturday afternoon, before the Brisbane and Geelong games, I have to make a call without knowing if Karnezis/Varcoe/Mitchell will be the sub. So unfortunately @Stampede and @JC, those ideas would not work. Without knowing the sub, I think I would still trade Mitchell for Dwyer, and trade Varcoe for Kennedy. Karnezis has more upside. It appears that Downgrading Franklin is the highest risk, but could also bring me the highest reward. As mentioned by @Mad_Mattigan I need to be looking to maximise my points return. So if I downgraded Franklin to Kennedy, I'd effectively be swapping a score of 100 (ave) for another score of 100 (As an estimate, Kennedy might score 120 and Franklin 100 this week). But Franklin will drop approx 30-40k, and Kennedy will rise 50-70k, so I'd make 100k for minimal points gain. In 24-trade SC, this would not be acceptable. But what about in 30-trade SC? What if I did this: Franklin-&amp;gt;Kennedy before the Saturday afternoon game. Then I watch the teams for the night games. If Karny/Varcoe are sub, they turn into dwyer, and I keep Mitchell. If neither are sub, Mitchell goes for Dwyer. The following week, I do my Mummy-&amp;gt;Leuenberger trade, giving me approx 500k in the bank if I traded Mitchell, 670k if I traded Karny/Varcoe. You're probably wondering where I'm going with this amount of money not on the field, hear me out. My second trade for that week would be Koby Stevens to an elite mid (leaving me still with 250k approx left if I traded Karny/Varcoe). If Buddy spuds it against Freo in round 4, and Karny/Varcoe have increased their averages acceptably, there is a very real chance I can trade one of them back into Franklin after round 4 (If I only have the 500k instead of the 670k, I will simply sit on the remaining money for an upgrade to Franklin after round 7 or make a trade elsewhere). I hope that's easy enough to follow. And I'm aware that A LOT needs to go right, but the reward could be massive. All for 5 trades. But in the worst case scenario where I don't have enough coin to get Franklin back after round 4, it is effectively 5 trades for a cash cow(Dwyer), and permanent F6 (Kennedy), an elite mid (I'm talking Pendles/Selwood/Watson), and 100-200k in the bank for an easy next upgrade. I would have to burn a further two trades before round 8 to get Franklin, before the GWS game. Not sure if me strategy is really worth it? Maybe I should just go Mitchell-&amp;gt;Dwyer, and then randomly pick either Karnezis or Varcoe to trade to Kennedy, risking one being subbed and effectively being a dud selection and requiring a trade out anyway. I just know my strategy could put me so far ahead, but it could also effectively just burn 5 trades for minimal reward. But we do have 6 bonus trades this year. I know it's a lot to take in, but I'd love to hear any response or opinion, I'd do the same for you.
     
  8. J_C

    J_C Guest

    @H_Dons - yeah I only saw the order of games after I'd responded to you, so my apologies for that mate.
     
  9. Fitzy

    Fitzy Guest

    Sounds like a great plan, and if you want to win overall, then that's what you got to do, you need to take risks. No point playing safe as you wont move up to much by doing that. So I say go for it, but at the end of the day its up to you
     
  10. Tomster

    Tomster Well-Known Member

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    TBH, I'm in no position to give you feedback, but I will do anyway :p. I like your strategy with the trades, and with the 30 trades you will have more than enough to do it. I'd say do it, cause you gotta risk it to get the biscuit! Also, no matter which strategy you use, I would get rid of Varcoe, instead of Karny. Karny was hyped up in the preseaon for a reason, much more than Varcoe (unless I actually have been living under a rock). Karny has a ton more upside if he avoids the vest. I'm worried about Varcoe. He's injury prone and inconsistent. If I were you, Varcoe would be out. I would never trade Buddy out, as he can score 100 against any team, but with a strategy like yours I'd say go for it.
     
  11. Tomster

    Tomster Well-Known Member

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    Well there you go, Karny is not even selected
     
  12. H_Dons

    H_Dons New Member

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    @JC - all good mate, you confirmed what I had been starting to think about K.Mitchell, he won't be much use to us as a cash cow. Are you going to hold Karny now that his price won't change? As per my plan above, he has to go for me, so I can get the most cash generation so I can try and pull this fluke of a plan off! Good luck with your trades. @Fitzy - I'm giving the plan a go. It's a massive risk, but at the end of the day it could put me ahead considerably. Worst case is I can't get Buddy straight away, but i burn 4 trades for a cash cow, pendles/watson, Kennedy, and 200k in the bank. Not a total disaster. Good luck with your team also! @Tomster - I agree with you on Varcoe/Karny, but the teams have made my decision for me! Varcoe is in line to get a price rise (a tiny one) but nevertheles, it is what I need for my plan to have any chance of working. Now I just have to sit back and watch Buddy like a hawk... Good luck with your season too! Thanks everyone for all the help and advice, will let you know how the plan goes. Won't be hard to get an idea of the progress if Buddy comes out and kicks 8 goals on Sunday, wish me luck this doesn't happen!
     
  13. J_C

    J_C Guest

    H_Dons wrote:
    @JC - all good mate, you confirmed what I had been starting to think about K.Mitchell, he won't be much use to us as a cash cow. Are you going to hold Karny now that his price won't change? As per my plan above, he has to go for me, so I can get the most cash generation so I can try and pull this fluke of a plan off! Good luck with your trades.[span style='font-size: 10px;]
    I'm not 100% sure to be honest. Karny is the only real concern I have with my team at the moment, so I'm quite lucky in that regard. If I'm going to move him on it'll probably have to be this week as the people I'd trade him for are due for a price rise. It's either 2 trades to get say Dwyer and JJK, or a straight downgrade to Dwyer for the cash.Otherwise, I hold and hope for the best (or get lucky and have someone like Mayes knock out a couple of 80's & present themselvesas an alternative).
    I think if either Stevens or Macaffer don't make the cut this afternoon, that will probably make my mind up for me.
     
  14. H_Dons

    H_Dons New Member

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    JC wrote:
    H_Dons wrote:
    @JC - all good mate, you confirmed what I had been starting to think about K.Mitchell, he won't be much use to us as a cash cow. Are you going to hold Karny now that his price won't change? As per my plan above, he has to go for me, so I can get the most cash generation so I can try and pull this fluke of a plan off! Good luck with your trades.[span style='font-size: 10px;] I'm not 100% sure to be honest. Karny is the only real concern I have with my team at the moment, so I'm quite lucky in that regard. If I'm going to move him on it'll probably have to be this week as the people I'd trade him for are due for a price rise. It's either 2 trades to get say Dwyer and JJK, or a straight downgrade to Dwyer for the cash.Otherwise, I hold and hope for the best (or get lucky and have someone like Mayes knock out a couple of 80's & present themselvesas an alternative).
    I think if either Stevens or Macaffer don't make the cut this afternoon, that will probably make my mind up for me. Karny is my only real concern also (Varcoe has JS, so I'll let him slide). Exactly my thoughts, while a player who is known to be out is usually held onto for another week, after round 2 it can be a bit different. Don't want to miss any first price rises that could benefit your team long term. I know its early days, and the Pies have injured stars to return, but seeing Dwyer named on field is a very positive sign IMO. Also to note, JJK's next little run of games goes like this: Carlton(H), Port(A), Dogs(H), Brisbane(A), North(H), GWS(A), and Richmond (A). Not a bad run, I think he's going to make his money fast and early. My advice would be to get both of them in.
     
  15. H_Dons

    H_Dons New Member

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    Well, I'm glad I traded Dwyer and Kennedy in! So far my plan is working, although the Varcoe injury and K.Mitchell returning to the rookie list has made it slightly more difficult. Franklin did score 121, but he dropped 29k and plays Freo this week, with a BE of 119. Not too bad. But will only lose 8k if he scores 100. Kennedy smashed out a 136, rose 75k, and has a BE of -11. So a 100k profit out of that trade. Dwyer also made me 74k, plus the extra money for cashing in Karnezis. I've downgraded Mumford to Leuenberger and now I have 663k in the bank. I need 335k of that if I want Franklin this week, but I should wait, as Varcoe's price won't change. Thinking of trading K.Mitchell to Sinclair (using DPP) to get me an extra 8k and a ruck who will get time now that NicNat is out for longer. My options: a) Do the Sinclair trade. Then hope that Koby Stevens scores 80 again, and goes up to 250k, and Buddy doesn't hit his BE. Then I need Selwood or Watson to score 100-110, then I might just be able to do Varcoe-&amp;gt;Franklin, Stevens-&amp;gt;Selwood/Watson. Pendlebury appears un-reachable for now. b) Trade K.Mitchell for Pendlebury this week, leaving me with 113k. Then next week I either do an early downgrade to get the remaining 220k (to do Varcoe-&amp;gt;Franklin), or I simply sideways Varcoe to Gray (if he plays this week). Means I probably won't get Franklin until just before round 8. So there we have it, my only issue is that if I do plan A, I will have over 600k in the bank this week, and that might affect my scoring ability too much. On the other hand, trading K.Mitchell to Pendlebury is very tempting. And by burning 6 trades instead of 5, I can effectively pull off my original plan in the first place, I just get Pendlebury a week earlier. Feedback would be much appreciated. It now really is crunch time!
     

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