This tidy piece of analysis has been brought to us by our very own JPK - so lets give him a big thank you as there is seriously a lot in here!!

So lets jump straight into it!

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I’ve used the newly updated stats page, and plugged in the averages that each of last years premium midfielders has against their respective opponents (and their yearly average for the games against GWS) to come up with the following collection of predicted salary graphs. There are some players that look even more tempting now, while others clearly look like they should be avoided in the starting lineups! Only pure mids have been analysed, as MPPs will almost certainly be selected in their non-mid position.

Scott Pendlebury

<div style="float:left"><img width="470px" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/JPKArticle_Pendlebury.png">

Makes for a great keeper from day one, so should be on everyone’s radar. His price never really plummets, however if you choose to stay away from the $700k at the start you should be able to pick him up after the bye for $100k less.

Gary Ablett

<div style="float:left"><img width="470px" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/JPKArticle_Ablett.png">

Aside from that quick little drop up until R5, GAJ looks pretty good as a starting premium. If you choose to save a few bucks and burn a trade around R5 you can be safe in the knowledge that he’ll likely never get much cheaper for the rest of the season.

Dane Swan

<div style="float:left"><img width="470px" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/JPKArticle_Swan.png">

Swan starts the year strongly, and may actually go up in value, before slowly coming down $75k just in time for the bye. After that Swanny is a bit of a rollercoaster, but it should be a good ride!

Nick dal Santo

<div style="float:left"><img width="470px" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/JPKArticle_DalSanto.png">

NDS is a predicted huge rollercoaster this season, likely to shed more than $100k by R9 – so the easy start to the saints season doesn’t seem to rub off for NDS. Unless you want to ride the waves, or trade him in and out as required, I’d stay away from NDS this year.

Marc Murphy

<div style="float:left"><img width="470px" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/JPKArticle_Murphy.png">

Murphy has a pretty consistent drop in price predicted up until just prior to the bye, so I’d be recommending staying off him, and saving yourself the best part of $100k by looking to upgrade to Murphy around his predicted R9 lowpoint.

Chris Judd

<div style="float:left"><img width="470px" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/JPKArticle_Judd.png">

Juddy has a pretty good first few weeks, before a predicted drop of $75k going into R8. It then looks as though he’ll stay pretty consistent through the middle of the year, before a big run into the finals. An alright pick from the get-go, otherwise a nice looking late upgrade option around R17.

Matthew Boyd

<div style="float:left"><img width="470px" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/JPKArticle_Boyd.png">

Matty Boyd is predicted to plummet from the start, so not the best option to pick up now. I’d say its worth holding fire on boyd, and then looking to upgrade to him anywhere after R5, where it looks like he’ll be Mr Consistent.

Matt Priddis

<div style="float:left"><img width="470px" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/JPKArticle_Priddis.png">

Matty Priddis seems to be the perfect scoring Mr Consistent (there must be something with these Matty’s) basically following the “get your average each and every week” salary prediction. Although he is predicted to be $100k cheaper at the end of the year, if you jump on him now and ride it out, you should expect to see a constant scoring machine as the year goes on.

Tom Rockliff

<div style="float:left"><img width="470px" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/JPKArticle_Rockliff.png">

The rocklobster should be well off everyone’s radar as a starter, based on that predicted plummet of more than $100k by R7. After that he should hold his value for the rest of the season, which will make him a decent upgrade option for the cash strapped, but maybe not a huge premium scorer.

Walesys note: For mine, Rockliff is a perfect example of why you need to consider context when looking at these graph. I mean, the AA figure contains an average of their last 3 games against a particular team, and in Rockliffs case, that includes games from his debut season! Plugging in last years averages alone, brings us an image like this! Ill be pointing this phenominon out as 3game breakoutitis.

<div style="float:left"><img width="470px" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/JPKArticle_Rockliff2.png">

Sam Mitchell

<div style="float:left"><img width="470px" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/JPKArticle_Mitchell.png">

Sammy Mitchell looks like he’ll be having a rather up-and-down year, so unless you have some good cover for his down games, I’d recommend staying away from him this year. Does look to have a nice purple-patch just after the bye, but then it all goes south again, before a late run into the finals.

Andrew Swallow

<div style="float:left"><img width="470px" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/JPKArticle_Swallow.png">

Andrew Swallow looks to be a disaster starter, losing more than $100k in 5 rounds! This is mostly due to the fact hes averaged 55 against Geelong over the last few games. I’d be looking to Swallow as an early- to mid- season upgrade, but if you don’t grab him just after the byes you might just be too late!

Joel Selwood

<div style="float:left"><img width="470px" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/JPKArticle_Selwood.png">

The premium Selwood brother looks to be living up to his lofty standards of last year, and is well worth the cash at the start of the year. If you don’t grab him from the start, you’ll likely pay an inflated price until his predicted low point around R14, so a nice late upgrade option there, but after that (if you’re still in the market) I’d be looking elsewhere!

Scott Thompson

<div style="float:left"><img width="470px" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/JPKArticle_Thompson.png">

Scott Thompson has the worst start to the year of any premium mid, predicted to lose $150k before R9. If you want to upgrade to him, do it now, or wait a few weeks (until R15) when he should have a huge late season run into the finals, recovering almost all of his early season losses.

Walesys note: Thompsons data is a little less than perfect, with his past scores being mixed up with Norths Scott Thompson. You might want to adjust for his 52 AA against Hawthorn!

Dale Thomas

<div style="float:left"><img width="470px" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/JPKArticle_Thomas.png">

Thomas is not the Pie to be starting with. Let him lose his predicted $100k by R7, then jump on as a nice upgrade, and you should be rewarded with a consistent (although not lofty) output for the rest of the season.

Walesys note: Again, do consider the effects of 3game breakoutitis.

Ryan Griffen

<div style="float:left"><img width="470px" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/JPKArticle_Griffen.png">

Griffen looks to be a bad pick this year. It appears as though he drops too quickly in value at the start of the season, bringing in less than average scores. He then slowly increases his output, but only to an average mark, and will constantly lose value all year. Probably consistent scoring, but below average for a premium, and in the end it’ll be a $125k season loss.

Walesys note: Again, do consider the effects of 3game breakoutitis.

David Mundy

<div style="float:left"><img width="470px" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/JPKArticle_Mundy.png">

Mundy shouldn’t be on your radars as a starter after looking at that predicted price drop - $150k in 16 rounds, but as a late upgrade target he might be worth it to take advantage of the predicted strong run into the finals.

Walesys note: Again, do consider the effects of 3game breakoutitis.

Luke Hodge

<div style="float:left"><img width="470px" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/JPKArticle_Hodge.png">

Hodgey has a pretty sharp drop to start the season, although in actual dollar terms is not as big as some others, predicted to lose $70k by R8. After that he should get it all back leading into R18 with some predicted high scoring, which then goes sharply south just as the league finals start up. Not a good premium player this year, so I’d stay away.

Jobe Watson

<div style="float:left"><img width="470px" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/JPKArticle_Watson.png">

Jobe has a great first few rounds, before plummeting going into the byes. After that he makes for a nice mid-season upgrade, having a very consistent run for the remainder of the year, with a nice little point scoring run during the finals.

Daniel Wells

<div style="float:left"><img width="470px" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/JPKArticle_Wells.png">

Wells looks like he’ll have a rather up-and-down season, with a nice early gain, before a $100k+ price plummet going into the bye. Upgrading to him at this time looks to produce some pretty decent returns for a few weeks, before everything trails off going into the finals, until an expected decent score in the final round. In the end he looks to only lose $100k over the season, which would hold true to Wells hitting his average for last season.

Bryce Gibbs

<div style="float:left"><img width="470px" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/JPKArticle_Gibbs.png">

Bryce looks to be setting himself up as a R9 upgrade target, losing around $70k, before having a great run from there on. I’d be staying off Gibbs as a starter, but he’s definitely on my radar as a mid-season upgrade (if only it wasn’t for that poorly timed bye!).

Walesys note: Again, do consider the effects of 3game breakoutitis.

Jack Redden

<div style="float:left"><img width="470px" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/JPKArticle_Redden.png">

Jack Redden looks to be another disaster story as a starting premium mid, so if he’s on your radar I’d recommend getting him off it. After R8 though you should be pretty right upgrading to him. He won’t be expected to set the world on fire, but he should give some pretty consistent returns, although that drop over the last few rounds is a big concern.

Walesys note: Again, do consider the effects of 3game breakoutitis.

Jimmy Bartel

<div style="float:left"><img width="470px" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/JPKArticle_Bartel.png">

Bartel looks to start the season with a flyer, before losing it all (more than $50k is predicted) going into the bye. As an upgrade after the bye, Bartel may be worth it, but as with Redden, those final few rounds are a concern.

Leigh Montagna

<div style="float:left"><img width="470px" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/JPKArticle_Montagna.png">

Looking across they year, Montagna looks to be one of the best premiums you can get, predicted to lose a total of around $10k between R1 and R23. The problem is that during this time he is predicted to be anything but a model of consistency. There’s a juicy $50k drop going into R4 (if you’re looking for a very early upgrade target), before rising more than $50k just before the bye. If you can cope with the highs and lows, his relatively small price fluctuations shouldn’t be an issues, so all-in-all Tags will be a good option as a midfield starter.

Trent Cotchin

<div style="float:left"><img width="470px" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/JPKArticle_Cotchin.png">

This list was compiled using last seasons midfield premiums, excluding the DPPS who will likely be selected in their non-mid positions, however the last name here, Trent Cotchin, will likely not be a premium at the end of 2012. Having a terrible start to the year, losing a predicted $100k by R6, is only the beginning of the misery for Cotchin, as he fails to show any real improvement for the rest of the year. Definitely not worth the money as a starter, and only likely to be valuable for someone looking for a late upgrade into someone who appears to finish the season with some consistent points.

Walesys note: Again, do consider the effects of 3game breakoutitis.

So there you go, Do you agree? Disagree? Love to hear your reasoning - and maybe even post up your own graphs to show us how you think those premium mids will roll next year!