Hi all, My predictions for 2012 premium (+100 point average) are as follows: Elite Premiums (120+) Ablett (mid) Pendlebury (mid) Swan (mid) Selwood (mid) Sub-Elite Premiums (110-120) Rockliff (mid) Goldstein (ruc) Murphy (mid) Goddard (def/mid) Dal Santo (mid) Judd (mid) Montagna (mid) Fyfe (fwd/mid) Swallow (mid) Chapman (fwd/mid) Gibbs (mid) Franklin (fwd) Premium (100-110) Thomas (mid) Priddis (mid) Redden (mid) Sandilands (ruc) Boyd (mid) Leuenberger (ruc) Mitchell (mid) Beams (fwd/mid) Cotchin (mid) McEvoy (ruc) Cox (ruc) Watson (mid) Hodge (mid) Deledio (def/mid) Bartel (mid) Rioli (fwd) Martin (fwd/mid) Barlow (mid) N Riewoldt (fwd) Mumford (ruc) Pavlich (fwd/mid) Kennedy (mid) Griffin (mid) Shuey (mid) Total Premiums = 40 D / M / R / F = 2 / 24 / 6 / 8 Existing premiums (from 2011) = 33 Returning premiums = 2 (Barlow, N Riewoldt) First time premium = 4 (Rioli, Martin, Kennedy, Shuey) No longer premium = 11 (Scotland, Shaw, Thompson, Goodes, Mundy, Wells, O'Keefe, Harvey, Roughead, J Griffin, Johnson) Existing elite = 3 (Ablett, Pendlebury, Swan) Returning elite = 0 First time elite = 1 (Selwood) No longer elite = 1 (Cox) By Team: St Kilda = 5 Collingwood = 4 Fremantle = 4 Hawthorn = 4 Brisbane = 3 Carlton = 3 Geelong = 3 Richmond = 3 West Coast = 3 North Melbourne = 2 Sydney = 2 Western Bulldogs = 2 Essendon = 1 Gold Coast = 1 Adelaide = 0 Greater Western Sydney = 0 Melbourne = 0 Port Adelaide = 0 Top Defenders = Goddard, Deledio, Scotland, Broughton, Lake, Suckling, Shaw, Bock (Birchall, Newman) Top Midfielders = Ablett, Pendlebury, Swan, Selwood, Rockliff, Murphy (Dal Santo, Judd) Top Rucks = Goldstein, Sandilands (Leuenberger/McEvoy) Top Forwaeds = Fyfe, Chapman, Franklin, Beams, Rioli, Martin, N Riewoldt (Pavlich, O'Keefe)
Very thorough list Holey, I really enjoy predictions like these. Some interesting stuff in there. Big rises for Joey and N Roo. Goldy not being affected by HMac. No Adelaide premiums. St Kilda having the most premiums, do you forcast a better year for them? My main question is, if you see Cox dropping from the top 4 rucks then why haven't you got Naitanui premium? Surely when big cox starts to drop off a bit Nic Nat will start feeding on some of his points? Or do you feel West Coast will not fare very well this year hence a drop in average for both? I only ask this because I'm hoping for the scenario I described; Coxy being managed through the year and Nic Nat taking the brunt of the action and scoring more points.
@ Matty_C I have Coxy pretty much equal 4th with McEvoy. NicNat and age I think will see him around the 105-107, and agree NicNat will increase up to around 98-100 (i.e. just short of premium). I don't think HMac will play in a role that will affect Goldy's scores. Goldstein last year recorded the most hitouts in a season in over 25 years, whilst being 22/23 years of ago. Cox/Nic Nat averaged 122/94 last year, there is no reason why the NM duo couldn't do the same. Montagna has a poor year last year, mainly due to efficiency. Expecting this to bounce back to 2010 levels, however not to 2009 levels where he was one of the competitions best. Riewoldt to return to premium (just) - but again won't get back to his 110+ average best. I expect St Kilda to be bottom half of the eight still - their best 5 or 6 remains as good as anyone's best 5 or 6, but they have always had depth issues. Be interesting to see if under a new coach if their depth can improve. Scott Thompson was Adelaide's only premium last year, after having a fantastic first half of the season. I predict he'll drop to just below premium, however will remain their best player.
Good list. Might be a year too early to drop Goodes. And what's you're thinking on Stevie J? Tempted to use him as a pod vs buddy this year.
Goodes was a tough one. He hovered around 100 last year before a big finish jumped him up to 108. I still expect him to have a strong output, but finish around 96-98. I expect Chapman to return more to the middle, and Stevie J to spend more time forward. As good as Stevie was last year, his increase was based on more midfield time, which I think will decrease this year. I think it would be reasonably unlikely that Stevie J could outscore Franklin over a year.
Lists always provoke discussion, and I enjoy comparing my thoughts to them. This one can't be based on much science though as all we have seen so far is 15 teams play in a carnival and 3 haven't even done that. Mind you, it's a gut feel game Will be very interested to see your list 2 days before round 1.
@Lenh191 Only injuries will affect the list. NAB Cup is only useful as a guide for rookies and players returning from injury. The list is based on previous seasons, and trends based on age, etc.
Thanks for the reply Holey, I don't disagree with most of what you have said. I agree that Joey should bounce back and I appreciate your insight on Goldy, Cox and Nic Nat. Very thought provoking. Cheers.
Nic Nat at 98-100??? He started 2011 with 78, 107, 42, 50 but then averaged 100 for his last 16 games. Worsfold has stated that he played with an arm injury throughout 2011. He stamped his season with an excellent finals series which shows that he has 'arrived'. One must ask the logic behind a 98-100 prediction.
You don't expect Hodge to bounce back to sub-elite after an injured plagued year? Lenny Hayes is written off? Scott Thompson in for a bad year? Also is this about averages only or do you expect these players to finish with most points? because some players may miss several games but still average over 100 (eg Sandilands, Mundy in 2011)
Any updates on Brian Lake? Aside from last year, he has averaged between 92 and 104 in the 4 previous years. At $286k, he looms as either a certainty or a dog (pardon the pun). At the moment, I change my mind daily on him. Suckling in, Lake in, Suckling in, Lake, Suckling, Lake....
Fair enough, huge call on Goodes at that rate, I think you will find him outside the trends in a Rob Harvey way.
Im tipping Watson to have a cracker this year, dons have apparently done the toughest preseason (ala cats style preseason) which has put considerable size on the young kids, add to that winderlick and dempsta back in the mix, so watto should see more support/supply than last season, he was on fire last year( pre-injury) so i think he's set to finish 2012 in top 5-8 mids, and he's not preferred by a lot of SC coaches , which i beleive can atleast inpart be attributed to his horrible E/disposal rate of the past, so he also is a reasonable POD, what do ppl think? Injury concerns? Money better spent elsewhere?
No love for "zaharakis"?? reckon he can push up into 100AVG , last year 14 games over 90, with a few duds in there!! If he can get that consistency good fwd / mid option???
@ the swert All based on averages, not most points...Hodge, Hayes & Thompson may have great years, but you can make a case either way with these guys: Hodge - anything from 90 avg to 115 wouldn't surprise me. He's unreliable Hayes - 32 and coming back from a knee-re? Averaged only 103 the year before whilst picking up 19 brownlow votes. I would be surprised if he could top 100 Thompson - sub 95 averages in both 2010 and 2009, and only ever averaged over 100 twice in his career, and now 29. @ whips On NicNat - many made the prediction last year that he'd go over 100. I wouldn't be surprised if he does, but Cox is still the number 1 ruckman, and you could make a case for a general rise of around 5-6 point average....many make the prediction each year that Dangerfield will become a premium. Patrick Dangerfield will never be a premium.