JPKs article, <a href="http://tooserious.net/2012-premium-midfield-analysis-by-the-graphs">looking at midfielders[/url], certainly raised a few good points, particularly when it comes to looking at past form when attempting to predict future form. The biggest point raised was the use of the 3 game average against a team, and how for players who have recently broken out, that its not the best indicator as its including scores from before they became premium.

Well, for this article, we have that to consider, but also the fact that CD changed with rules around scoring for hitouts last year (along with natural progression for some of the younger guys), seeing an unprecedented number of rucking options available.

So lets see what the numbers, and JPK say.

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Ok, so after some conjecture about the midfield analysis, the Premium Ruck analysis should create even more debate. Only guys who had a 100+ average last year have been looked at, which means there’s a lot of quality rucks with a slightly lesser average who I haven’t looked at yet. Maybe I’ll get around to it later, but for now, dig your teeth into these big fellas!

Dean Cox

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Ya Mum’s not going to be too happy to see Big Coxy plummeting by $200k by round 13. I can’t believe it myself, but it looks like cox is going to have a shocking start to the season, and be ripe for a possible upgrade when Sandi’s pinky-toe gives out just after the byes! I’d also bet that having Nicnat munching on the ruck points at The Eagles, Big Cox is not likely to be elite by the end of the season. Looking at just last years numbers brings up a different graph, making Coxy look light a great starting pick, however he still hits the same lowpoint at the same time of season, and ends 2012 with the same predicted price.

<div style="float:left"><img width="470px" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/JPKArticle_Cox2.png">

I’m going to recommend avoiding Cox this year.

walesys take: Cant say I agree with this completely. Based on the MN decay, youre expecting Cox to lose you 10% of value anyways, being Max priced. If not for that horror 10,11,12 run that he has however, he would just about keep that.

And if you, like most people, are considering going 2 premium rucks, then the cash movement isnt too big a concern, what is is the 108 hes predicted to average.

Todd Goldstein

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I’m not sure about Goldy’s AA team stats, likely to be effected by previous seasons. The numbers show some absolutely shocking predictions for Goldy, to the point where you’d be silly to even have him on the radar. After taking just the stats from 2011 (aside from GWS and The Eagles, who Goldstein didn’t play last year) you get the following graph.

<div style="float:left"><img width="470px" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/JPKArticle_Goldstein2.png">

So it still looks like Goldy has a shocking start to the season, losing more than $100k by R7, but after that he improves his output to give you a rocky ride to the end of the season. Not a bad performance, but will the North ruck structure help or hinder? Probably hinder in my opinion.

walesys take: Its a tough one here, no matter which way you cut it, Mummy has struggled against the Bomber, Geelong and Sydney- 3 of his first 4 teams. Which is leading to a plumb upgrade opportunity come round 7/8. With McIntosh coming back, perhaps Goldie would work well with a 1 ruck strategy as a potential upgrade.

Shane Mumford

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Mummy looks to be a poor choice this year, losing around $150k by R8, before steadying out across the rest of the year, and then a nice little increase in the final couple of rounds. The individual points scores however are very up and down, with nearly every second round being less than 80ppg. Once again, we’ll have a look at the stats from last year and see where we end up, but unfortunately Mummy missed a few games last year, so I’ve done some mix-and-matching (GWS in R1, North in R3, Crows in R6, .GWS in R14, and the Pies in R20)

<div style="float:left"><img width="470px" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/JPKArticle_Mumford2.png">

These calcs seem to have done Mummy a favour in his final pricing, although that rollercoaster ride is not painting a very consistent picture. I’ve currently got Mummy in my team, so based on that I’m going to recommend that everyone stay away from him and give me a POD!

walesys take: Mummy started, and finished last season like a house on fire. But there was a fair injury effect portion over rounds 9-15 where he scored a 71 and 69 against Hawthorn/Carlton. Outside of that however, the numbers are made worse by his 2009 season infecting it! Dogs has his 30 included, Port his 29, Freo a 43, North a 56, Adelaide a 45... and so on. So in fairness, Mummy should do a lot better than his figures here states. (Sorry JPK, I dont think hell be that big a POD! )

Aaron Sandilands

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Clearly Sandi has a bad predicted start to the season, but that just makes him a perfect R5 to R12 upgrade target, before a good few weeks, then some more losses, and finally a nice little run into the end of the season. Now, we all know Sandi chipped the polish on his toenails (or something similar!?!?!), so last years scores are going to be a mess, but here they are.

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This is just last years numbers, no averages or anything, which is the reason for a lot of horizontal lines, as there are many weeks without a score against his name. However, this does bode well for the big man, and if he can get himself fit and back into the form of a dominant ruckman, he should be a really good pick this year. Definitely should be on the radar, but is the risk worth it???

walesys take: Hes Sandi. Hell lose his 10%, and youll be left with a premium ruck who should dominate. Yes, theres injuries to be worried about, but if youre happy with that risk profile, the big man should do you well.

Matthew Leuenberger

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Leuenberger’s results may be a little skewed due to previous seasons, but as an apples-for-apples comparison, he has an absolute shocker of a season, with a predicted drop to below $400k by R14, before recovering to just over $425k by seasons end. This however looks very different when you just look at last year, mainly due to Luey’s huge second half to the season.

<div style="float:left"><img width="470px" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/JPKArticle_Leuenberger2.png">

Using last years results Leuy has a disaster start predicted for 2012, but then brings it back quite quickly to run out the middle of the season as the model of consistency. There’ll then be a fair old rollercoaster expected to end out the season, just as with his graph above. Leuenberger is a tough one this season, but I’d expect him to be worth the ride.

walesys take: Like a couple of the rucks that broke out last year, youre looking at Leuey for how he grew through last year- Really finished the year strong, but of course, theres the risk of starting the year the same way, and of course big Ben Hudson is a bit of an unknown to this equation.

Ben McEvoy

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Well, that’s a fall from grace if I ever saw one! From $550k to $350k in 10 weeks would make anyone want to just give up, and based on this if you select McEvoy giving up may very-well be the best option. However we’re all now well aware that stats lie, so lets have a look at last years numbers.
Mcevoy didn’t play the Dees or GWS last year, so I kept them out of this graph (R5, 20, 22) but you can still see a nice start to the season for the first few rounds, which was missing in the other graph. This however all fall apart, and Mcevoy is still tipped to crash to $425k by R10 before slowly climbing back up (with a small fall) to the end of the season.

<div style="float:left"><img width="470px" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/JPKArticle_McEvoy2.png">

walesys take: Thundas boy, McEvoy had a strong start to the year, a very strong middle and fell away at the death. Still, with two "non-breakout" years potentially floating through these figures, it makes it tough to get an exact bead on whats going to happen. What we do know however, is that the rucks at St. Kilda should really hold the status quo after last year, making McEvoy a reasonably safe pick.

So, the rucks are a very mixed bag, with no-one looking like a certainty whichever way you manipulate the stats. The good thing about all of this is that its based on the past, and will probably bare zero resemblance to 2012 for most of these boys. The best advice I can give is that I tip a 2-0-2 ruck combo to be the best option this season. A 1-0-3 or even a 1-1-2 combo might be ok for some, but you’d be pretty stuffed if your rookies didn’t end up playing too much, and you didn’t have the cash to upgrade one to a more premium ruckman. Atleast with a failing premium ruck, yu have some cash there to trade him into someone else doing a better job!