2012 Supercoach Season Reviews: Essendon

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By cjcahill on Sep 17, 2012 at 10:00 AM
  1. cjcahill

    cjcahill New Member

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    <p style="text-align: center">Essendon Supercoach Season by H_Dons
    Essendon’s season can be summed up in three sequential words: Excitement -> Frustration -> Disgrace. But on reflection, it can be seen as a disappointment, and a failure. In terms of SC, the sequence was largely the same, and if there were more SC-relevant players at the club, the ‘ugly’ section would be a LOT bigger.

    While Essendon have in recent seasons had very few ‘SC-friendly’ players in terms of true premium scorers, Jobe Watson has launched himself into the very top category of elite. Apart from him, there is mostly daylight, and this other guy they call Stanton. I could claim I knew never to jump on him, as tempting as it was, but it is more likely that I just had some dumb luck in not bringing him in after those multiple 150+ scores. I will deal with him later. But apart from that, there shouldn’t really have been too many SCers getting burnt by Essendon players, at least not due to poor scoring, mainly injuries (Zaharakis, Hibberd). And it is on that note that I welcome you to the Essendon SC review for 2012.

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    The Good

    Jobe Watson

    Avg: 120.95

    Projected 2013 Price: $642,511

    Nearly everybody dismissed Watson due to his dodgy hammies from 2011, so I find it quite ironic that in the season where Essendon had an injury toll bordering on the laughable, he plays EVERY game. Smashed his 2011 average of 106, was the Brownlow favourite for a large chunk of the season (good value at about 5.50 now) and almost certain to be All-Australian Captain. Only scored under 100 in four games, with a low score of 73. I could go on. Anybody who had him from round 1 at 574k would have been laughing (me J). Is an absolute gun and nearly single-handedly dragged Essendon to victory on more than one occasion. One of my first picked in 2013.

    Patrick Ryder

    Avg: 105.47

    Projected 2013 Price: $560,239

    After many seasons of inconsistency and frustration, Paddy definitely took a big step this year and built on his previous highest average of 90. Paddy has a long-standing habit of disappearing in games and getting 30’s and 40’s, but compare that to this year where his lowest score was just 70, and you can see where he has improved. Only blight on his record is he played just 15 games, but considering the dramas a few other rucks went through, it isn’t too much of a negative. Will be watching closely to see if he can back it up in 2013, especially with that hefty projected price tag. Needs to maintain CONSISTENCY. Probably a good upgrade option as Paddy will almost certainly have a small dip in price at some stage.

    Courtenay Dempsey

    Avg: 78.2

    Projected 2013 Price: $415,398

    Yes I know, probably pushing it here, but for what he was picked for, Dempsey has largely delivered as a mid-price defender in SC this year. Started at 273k and finished at 382k, Dempsey was priced as high as 432k, and averaged 78 for the year with 4 tons. If you had plans for him as a D7, you would have been happy, anything else and I’d say you got a little burnt. He has averaged 70 odd in previous seasons, but it appears he could be on the up. Still a big gap between his best and worst, he scores 80-110 in good games, and 50-60 in bad ones, of which he had about 7 this year. If he can cut that down to 2 or 3 bad games, he just might have a chance of upholding his 2013 projected price.

    **Just a note on mid-pricers and a trend I’ve noticed over this season – it seems that players such as Dempsey and others (Porplyzia, Lake, Marty Clarke, Hayes etc) are going to be a key to getting an edge in SC 2013. But not those same players again. The sub-rule is a factor in this shift. What I think I’m trying to say is that the challenge each year will be to identify these under-priced players, identifying the ones that can fill a role in your team. You could almost call it the Sydney Swans approach to SC. Dempsey played a great role as D7 for me this year, as did Porplyzia as F7 and McIntosh in the ruck. But they won’t be in my team next year. They are simply a means to either save a trade by spending a little more on a ‘rookie’(273k and 229k are just expensive #1 draft picks), or finding genuine value. Its all about taking risks. Just like it is picking one rookie over another, one might average 80, while the other might not even play (Ledger, we’re looking at you). There’s plenty of contenders next year, particularly a few forwards from West Coast and Geelong, as well as two rucks who could easily be your number 1 and 2 or 2 and 3 next year. Winderlich is mentioned below too. Luke Hodge could be next year’s Lenny Hayes. Just a thought of mine, would love to hear what others have to say on the matter.

    The Bad

    Michael Hurley

    Avg: 73.13

    Projected 2013 Price: $388,400

    This kid has big wraps as we all know, but the days where we can call him a kid are fast running out, if not gone already. After a few promising SC seasons, Hurley was primed to deliver this year. After a modest start, he was struck down early with injury and just never got going. We got a brief tease in rounds 13 and 14 where he tore apart Freo over there and the Doggies (who didn’t), scoring 106 and 135 respectively. 100k drop in price is a good way to sum up his season. Genuine disappointment. 2013 will be his 5th year, hoping it is a big one for Hurley!

    Dyson Heppell

    Avg: 84.1 (2011-83.45)

    Projected 2013 Price: $446,739

    This is probably very harsh, but Heppell didn’t improve this year. Averaged exactly the same as he did last year and watching him in games, was much of the same. It does look as though his size is holding him back, he always knows where to go but just can’t break through the tackles with conviction yet. On the plus side, his consistency is still there, with just 2 scores below 70. But the fact there was only 2 above 100, emphasises the disappointment. Dropped off later on, like Essendon, just not off a cliff like most of his team mates.

    Jake Melksham

    Avg: 59.73

    Projected 2013 Price: $317,271

    Could have easily been in the Ugly category, but the fact that surely not many people had him, means he got promoted to Bad. Dropped 100k to finish on a measly 230k and scored over 80 only twice. Yep. Twice. While it was only his third season, this kid has big wraps on him and was predicted to at least improve to some degree, not go backwards like he has. I honestly watched some games and didn’t realise he was playing until the last quarter. Cashed in and broke the ton in our 2 easiest wins (Brisbane and an injury depleted West Coast) but was out of sight out of mind for the remainder of the year. A big disappointment.

    The Ugly

    Brent ‘Permacapt’ Stanton

    Avg: 104.6

    Projected 2013 Price: $555,635

    Yes, he was once called the ‘permacapt’ by many of us, and I’ll tell you why. After round 8, he was ranked 2nd overall in SC (behind the little master) with an average of 137, EIGHT points above 3rd place Pendlebury, making him an elite player. 180, 134, 93, 161, 71, 154, 164, 142 reads the first 8 rounds of the season. How could you not jump on? Post round 8, ol’ perma scored 100 just twice, throwing in a 57 and 69 for good measure. Opposition teams realised/remembered that you just needed to put a hard tag on him, and bye bye perma. It must be said that Zaharakis going down was also a big factor in the ease of stopping Stanton. Interestingly enough, he finished the season still with a 105 average, number 30 in the top averages for SC 2012. That’s right, if you roll over to the stats page and click ‘Ave’ you will find Stanton on the first page still (at the very bottom). Here’s a list of just some of the players who Stanton averaged higher than this year: S.Selwood, Goddard, Shaw, Hayes, Judd, Jacobs, O’Keefe, Roughead, Shuey, Scotland, Chapman. Not a bad list is it? But what makes Stanton truly ugly, is the fact that those poor SCers who got him in, they got him in to score big. He was priced well over 600k for a number of weeks and deservedly so. The SCers wanted that 137 average, not 105. Ugly ugly UGLY. Hope people learnt a lesson! Adrenalin junkies might start 2013 with Stanton, then jump off as soon as he strings 2 or 3 games together under a ton. But in reality, why bother? So many better options out there.

    Angus Monfries

    Avg: 66.67

    Projected 2013 Price: $354,133

    Gus Monfries to put it simply, had a terrible year. After glimpses of midfield action in 2011, some people may have seen enough to consider he might finally make something of himself in SC 2012, but it definitely didn’t happen. Started at 451k and dropped in value every single week for the entire year, finishing at a dismal 259k. I had him in my preseason side for a week or two before my head won out against my heart, and I chose Dangerfield instead. After reading that, you get an idea of just how bad Monfries season was. Doesn’t surprise me that he is the subject of trade whispers as we speak. There are plenty more Essendon players who could feature here, just none that are SC-relevant.

    2013 Watch list

    David Zaharakis

    Ave: 88.38

    Projected 2013 Price: $469,499

    Was averaging 99 when he tore his quad at training before the Sydney game in round 11. Missed the next 10 weeks and was rushed back into the side to try to salvage the season, and therefore struggled and looked like he wasn’t ready. That may prove a blessing in disguise because if Zaha remains a fwd/mid, he will be almost too good to refuse at his reduced price, and one of my first picked next year. Showed great run and carry, and elite kicking in the first half of the year and is my number 1 breakout prospect at Essendon in SC 2013. Jump on.

    Stewart Crameri

    Ave: 78.5

    Projected 2013 Price: $416,992

    After a great debut season in 2011 (3 games in 2010 doesn’t count), big Stew started 2012 on fire, reaching the ton 6 times from the first 9 rounds. His athleticism and attack on the ball meant that his 101 average was not a surprise to anybody who watched him. Then…yep you guessed it, he copped a few injuries and was basically playing at 60-70% for the remainder of the year. Clearly not moving how he was early on, he missed games and was a shadow of his former self, failing to score another ton. Why consider him in 2013? That opening half of the season was no fluke. This guy has genuine talent and if he can keep his body in shape, would be more than worthy of a spot in your forward line for SC 2013. Keep an eye on Crameri over the pre-season.

    Michael Hibberd

    Ave: 73.85

    Projected 2013 Price: $392,271

    A mature-age recruit (23 next year), Hibberd has the potential to be a prolific SC defender in 2013. While it is more likely he will average 90+ instead of 105+ next year, the courageous way this guy plays is very SC-friendly. Was averaging 96 before his 1st quarter injury (bit of a theme here huh?) on ANZAC day, and like many others, never got back into top gear. Loves an intercept mark, as well as 3rd man up, not to mention he has ‘defensive sweeper’ written all over him. Has great potential and another to keep a close eye on over the preseason. Will most definitely be on my radar for 2013.

    Rookies and rookie-priced players

    Brent Prismall &amp; Jason Winderlich

    Projected 2013 Price: $184,560 &amp; $244,352

    At prices this low, both of these players must be considered. Especially Winderlich, who can be classified as a high risk/high reward player. Has a horrid injury history, and was slow to get back from an ACL this year. But in the past has shown that he can score well above his predicted price for 2013, averaging 90+ in seasons where he actually played most games. Found his feet in just his second game back against Adelaide where he kicked 4 goals before, yep, getting injured again. Honestly, the word ‘hamstring’ sends a shiver down any Bomber fan’s spine. If Winders retains his fwd/mid status, and has an incident-free preseason, he will be very close to a lock in my starting line-up at that price. Prismall on the other hand, is one to just keep an eye on, since the ‘super draft’ will probably yield an abundance of cheaper options for a rookie spot in our SC midfields.

    Elliot Kavanagh &amp; Joe Daniher

    Projected 2013 Price: 100k &amp; TBA

    The new kids on the block. From what I’ve been told, Kavanagh is a jet, and since he only played one sub-affected game in 2012, he will be a ripe 100k in 2013. Surely a rookie with a year in the VFL and an extra AFL preseason under his belt is an advantage over first year rookies? Follow his preseason progress before making your selection. And Joe Daniher, while I don’t know all that much myself, is being touted by some recruiters as ‘the best tall to ever play the TAC Cup’. I’d question that, but I’m not going to argue. Daniher will be under-priced due to being a father-son selection at number 10 instead of a likely top 2 pick if Essendon didn’t take him. There would have been a few other players here (Brendan Lee, Nick O’Brien) if they didn’t play this year and ruin their predicted 2013 prices.

    Well that’s it, hope that the information provided will help SCers make their decisions next year. Personally, I really like the look of Zaharakis, prepare to see a massive year from him! If he’s got MPP status still, lock him in.
     

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Discussion in 'Blog' started by cjcahill, Sep 17, 2012.

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