<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]Firstly, a thanks toK'noath who has kicked of our 2014 previews in absolute style.
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]Just a quick note, this was written before the Sammy Mitchell, Luke Hodge M/D was leaked, which really makes him a must have. Perhaps not a must have starter, but certainly a pick up in the year. - walesy
The year 2013 saw Hawthorn as the premiers after a super-solid season that only saw three losses including two at the hands of Geelong. The Hawks are a formidable side that hunt in packs and spread the game-day load very well across the whole team. As a result though only GWS and Melbourne had less players with a 100pt SC average than Hawthorn in 2013, which might come as a surprise to some. Only Sam Mitchell broke the ton average for the year. Players such as Franklin, Birchall. Lewis and Hodge all had SC years down on previous bests. Can Hawthorn's guns return to their previous scoring heights? Will it be a premium breakout year for the likes of Isaac Smith, or Gunston? Can returning injured players like Suckling return to their high scoring potential. Here is how I break down Hawthorn's list for 2014...
The dependable (SC Guns):
Jarryd Roughead - 98.50 - (RUC/FWD):
Lived up to expectations for those that had him for 2013. His versatility on the field ensures hotouts, possessions, marks and goals meaning plenty of SC points. His versatility as a MPP in this game is just as important. A must have in most SC teams for 2014.
Sam Mitchell - 104.19 (MID):
The highest SC scorer for the Hawks in a premiership year. Sure, Creepy Crowley kept him quiet in the Grand Final but you won't see too many other taggers in the game holding Mitchell back from a 100pt game. He may start to fade a touch with age but I'd expect another solid 100pt average for 2014.
Grant Birchall 92.07 (DEF):
Birchall had a few shockers in 2013 when he copped a run of taggers mid season which hurt a more than a few SC players at the height of his popularity. He's still the Hawks no.1 rebounding defender and playmaker from the backline and I'd expect another season close to 100pt ave.
P.O.D's worth the risk:
Jordan Lewis 96.57 (MID)
The Hawk hard nut plays on the aggressive edge and often comes close to crossing the line with a missed week on the side lines here and there. He's managed to keep it in check in recent times (just) and always plays a solid game for the team. Often plays well in the big games and has the potential to break the 100pt ave and could be a great P.O.D.
Isaac Smith 82.24 (MID)
Smith had a break out year of sorts in 2013. He may not have set the SC world alight but I'd expect some solid contributions in 2014 and I'm predicting a rise in his average by about 10pts a game. Midpricers are always a risk but Smith could be a good P.O.D. for your team.
Players to avoid (SC flops):
Kyle Cheney 51.00 (DEF)
Cheney is the go to man for the injured at Hawthorn. Although he's held in high regard within the club he rarely strings more than a few games together before making way once again for the healed. He's usually given a stopping job in defence when he does play and hence his SC scoring is far from advantageous to your team. He does contribute with a few one-percenters for his team but I'd pass for 2014.
Liam Shiels 61.43 (MID)
Shiels runs all day and is the Hawks run-with player to keep the oppositions best mids honest. If fit he'll play most games but his negating jobs on the field seldom score well in the SC arena. Spend your dollars elsewhere.
Ryan Schoenmakers 62.25 (DEF)
Could become swingman in 2014 going Forward on occasions but unlikely to get MPP status before the season. He's a key position player that improved in the last year before he's ACL injury but he's negating roles are not best suited to SC. Can't see his average improving.
Jonathon Ceglar 47.00 (RUC)
Maybe a little harsh with Ceglar only playing 2 games last year. It did earn the rookie ruckman a spot on the seniors list for 2014. He may well play another game or two next year but is too far down the ruck pecking order to make it into my team. I'd look elsewhere.
Potential breakout candidates (The mid-pricers):
Jack Gunston 82.95 (FWD)
Some would say that Gunston had a breakout year in 2013 but at his price he has huge room for rise. His averaged more goals per game when Franklin missed games and just quietly I'm sure he's been waiting for Buddy to depart to make the forward line his own. Gunston isn't the biggest forward in the comp but his read of the play, body positioning in a contest, his agility and his marking is more than enough to make the best defenders earn their money. Combined with his super accurate kick for goal the SC points are sure to rise. If you like mid-pricers seriously consider Gunston in 2014.
Jonathan Simpkin 68.77 (MID)
If Hawthorns super-sub can break free from the green vest he'll break out in 2014. He's a possession gathering machine that makes calculated passes to his team mates and often creates scoring opportunities with inside 50's, goal assists and the odd goal himself. If he gets his chance expect Simpkin to shine. Watch closely.
Young players on the rise (Cashcows):
Dayle Garlett (FWD)
An obvious choice I know. But in reigning premiership side there won't be too many cashcows available. If Garlett has a solid preseason and does what the coaches expect from him he's sure to get a few games in 2014 with three years in WAFL behind him. He won't be in the Hawks best 22 for a little while yet but if the Hawks are unlucky enough to receive injuries to the likes of Rioli or Bruest he could slot straight in and play a lot of footy.
Players to watch in the pre-season:
Matt Suckling (DEF)
Suckling missed the entire 2013 season with an ACL injury. He's averaged 90.75 and 82.68 in the previous two years before getting injured and has a 139pt game to his name. He is a genuine playmaker off the backline and his accurate and long kicking feature regularly in the inside 50 count and goals from outside 50. If fit and firing for round 1 he'll slot seamlessly into the Hawks 22 and with a lower price tag for 2014 you could do worse than putting 'Suckers' in your SC side.
Taylor Duryea 56.28 (MID)
Duryea played 18 games in 2013 and is very much in the Guerra mould. With Guerra now retired the spot is his for the taking if he continues his improving from the last season. Depending on team structures in round 1 he may be fighting against Suckling for the one spot but I'd expect both to play in the same side on many occasions. Having played much of his time in defence I'd expect a DEF option next to his name in 2014 or better still a MID/DEF MPP. Watch.
Mitch Hallahan (MID)
Read Brad Sewell replacement. The Hawk hard nut has had an injury plagued start to his career but he put all that behind him in 2013 and had a break out year racking up possessions in the VFL for Box Hill and winning the Liston Trophy. If injuries or form effect the hawthorn mids expect Hallahan to get a game. If the Hawks don't play him this year he might be a player that starts searching other clubs for opportunity. Watch closely.
Injury/fitness cloud:
Brendan Whitecross 61.60 (MID)
After enduring ACL heart ache for the second time in his short but exciting career with the Hawks, Whitecross will miss most, if not all of 2014. If his frame was anything to go by when he returned from his first ACL then he might be one to watch closely for 2015. He could quite easily become the next Scott Thompson (Adel).
Jed Anderson 52.60 (MID)
Anderson finished the year with a bout of pneumonia, which will affect his preparations for a preseason. Like Simpkin, Anderson's SC scores suffer a little from the green vest. He certainly showed plenty of promise in 2013 and if his health is regained to A1 will no doubt get more opportunity in future. Watch.
Going out on a limb:
Sam Grimley 65.67 (RUC)
Want to go out on a limb and pick a left field player that might just make you some dough. Grimley is listed as a ruck but is quick and nimble for his height, fleet footed through the centre, can rove his own hitouts and runs forward to kick unexpected goals. Apart from the ruck work it's a role description that Franklin played in increasing amounts up the ground during the 2013 season and in Buddy's absence Grimley may well find a spot waiting for him. His competition in this department is Tim O'brien. Having only played 3 senior games his price will still be low too. He starred for Box Hill in 2013 and will be in the running for my R4 spot.
A few words on the rest of the list:
Kaiden Brand (FWD): Development player. Needs more VFL
Luke Breust 82.45 (FWD): Expect more of the same in 2014
Shaun Burgoyne 85.20 (DEF/MID): Handy with MPP but can be inconsistent in SC
Josh Gibson 78.76 (DEF): Solid but SC scoring unlikely to improve
David Hale 83.82 (RUC/FWD): Can score well but game day role may change in 2014
Billy Hartung (MID): New recruit. Future gun prospect but unlikely to play until next season
Brad Hill 59.62 (MID): Green vest effected average. Could breakout. Watch.
Luke Hodge 96.70 (MID): Gun if injury niggle free. Please give us defender MPP
Jordan Kelly (DEF): Development player. Needs more VFL
Brian Lake (DEF): Can put out 95pt games but more important to the Hawks than your SC side.
Will Langford 14.00 (DEF): Upgraded rookie. Will get a game time at some point in 2014. Watch
Angus Litherland (DEF): Player on the up. Will likely play more VFL in 2014
Luke Lowden (RUC): been at the Hawks for years and can't seem to rise up the pecking order
Ben McEvoy 93.32 (RUC): At his best he's top 5 ruckman in the comp. Watch.
Tim O'Brien (FWD): talented player he'll be on the watch list in future. May get a game or two
Paul Puopolo 75.47 (FWD): Electric player that can score high. Too inconsistent for SC land
Cyril Rioli 88.38 ((FWD): Can easily score 100pts from 12 possession game. Strongly consider
Brad Sewell 78.11 (MID): Strong resilient player but doesn't score high enough often enough for SC
James Sicily (MID/FWD): New recruit. Possible bright future but unlikely to play until next season
Matthew Spangher 71.33 (FWD): If he gets MPP status could be one to watch with vacancies
Ben Stratton 65.82 (DEF): Brilliant one-percenter defender for the Hawks. Not for SC
Alex Woodward (MID): Read Mitch Hallahan's info. But due to injury is 1 year further behind
Rookies
Dallas Willsmore (FWD/RUC): was rated to go in the draft proper. Hold off for now.
Derick Wanganeen (MID/DEF): He can play but competition for spots will make it tough
Ben Ross (MID): talented and versatile. Hawks rookie most likely to get games
Zac Webster (MID/FWD): good speed and endurance. but will need time to develop.
Kurt Heatherley: NZ international rookie. Will need VFL development
Shem Tatupu: NZ international rookie. Will need VFL development