Good evening all TS Users. Once again I will provide some light hearted humour and entertainment by informing you all of how I venture on the AFL Punt this year. This year I am starting with a bank of $3000. These funds will be readily available in my Sportsbet account to hopefully grow to a profitable balance. I need to start by saying I apologise for not being able to do this earlier day due to some unfortunate news for myself and my family. At 12:10pm today AEST, my father passed away and lost his battle with illness at the age of 64. I don't know any of you guys face to face but judging from the support of many last year on my adventures with the punt, I'm sure I have people out there that understand what I am currently going through. I was not going to post for round 1 but in my state of confusion, I thought why not. In saying all that above, may my father R.I.P and lets se if my Tigers can start the season off with a win. My initial bet for round 1 is below: Round 1/ bet 1: Richmond win bet:$200 odds: $1.52 Good luck to all punters out there and for those that don't punt, good luck with your footy tips.
Let's see if I can continue selecting winners for the rest of the round. Further bets below Round 1/ bet 2: Gold Coast win bet: $100 odds: $1.38 R1/ B3: 5 let multi - all to win: gold coast / Sydney / w.coast / Adelaide / hawthorn bet: $70 odds: 6.51 R1/B4: 8 leg multi - all to win: g.coast / syd / w.coast / Brisbane / gws / Adelaide / port / hawthorn bet: $30 odds: 27.61 Further bets will be placed for this round and as a general rule, I will more than likely wait until the subs are named for respective games unless I am confident that there will be no late changes to teams and I am confident on who I want to bet on. Live betting is also something I use. This method of betting is used to recover losses or to bet on markets that are regularly updated. For those of you that focus just on footy tips, my tips are the same as the 8 leg multi, including the Richmond selection from Thursday. Good Luck punters.
Continuation betting for Round 1; R1 / B5: 5 legs all for win - Sydney / wce / Brisbane / Adelaide / hawthorn bet: $100 odds $7.18 bet placed 4:27pm aest
Not a profitable Saturday. ..ok, more bets below. R1 / B6: 2 leg multi Adel / Port Adel Bet: $100 Odds: $3.42 R1 / B7: 4 leg multi- Gws / Adel / Port / Hawks Bet : $100 Odds: $6.47 Bets placed 750am aest sunday
I don't think I deserve to be losing $400 this week. To fix this problem, I have decided to let Hawthorn recover a majority of the losses for the week. Bets below. R1 / B8: Hawthorn HT/FT bet: $200 odds: $1.80 R1 / B9: Hawthorn to lead every 1/4 and win bet: $200 odds: $2.15 bets placed around 12:30pm aest
I had a live bet at 3/4 time on the hawks gam and it wasn't pretty. just thought i'd compound my loses properly for the round. the live bet was; R1 / B10: Hawks last quarter -9.5 bet: $250 odds: $1.87
Round 1 Wrap Up. </br>Well it wasn't the start that I wanted. Thursday night was a good start and it went backwards from there. Gold Coast turned up at the 'G', thinking it was a lay down misere beating Melbourne. GAJ seemed undercooked and needs to spend a bit more time in the oven to get his team over the line. Then there was a number of multi's that got ripped up. Five in fact. Ranging from 2 to 8 legs, I couldn't pull a trick. The biggest surprise for me was WCE losing. It appears that the minnows of last season have a lot more vigour in their approach to footy - applause go to Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs. Essendon nearly pulled off the upset of the round, considering what they have been through. The one bet that hurt me the most was the 2 leg multi involving the Adelaide teams. Adelaide did their bit, but a Port unit getting overrun in the last 15 minutes forced my hand in betting again on Sunday. If Port wins, I collect on a 2 & 4 leg multi, about $900. Instead they lose and I buy in to the Hawks game for $650, and collect $360 from that. So what else is there to say here, I got smashed, pure and simple. Looking forward to Round 2 to correct some of my errors. Round 1 summary: Bets: 10 - Won (2) Lost (8) Profit/Loss for round: Loss ($686) Round Turnover: $1,350 Profit/Loss for year: Loss ($686) Total turnover: $1,350 <p ></br> <p ></br>
Round 2 selections. Good Afternoon all. Well last week was a shit week on the punt and I've jumped all over the favourites this week. My initial bets are below: Round 2/ bet 1: WCE win bet:$100 odds: $1.50 R2 / B2: 9 leg multi - wce / rich / gws / adel / port / gcoast / freo / hawks / kangas bet: $30 odds: $20.83 R2 / B3: 8 leg multi - rich / gws / adel / port / gcoast / freo / hawks / kangas bet: $30 odds: $13.72 R2 / B4: 6 leg multi - wce / rich / port / gcoast / hawks / north bet: $50 odds: $5.60 R2 / B5 - 6 leg multi - rich / gws / adel / gcoast / hawks / north bet: $50 odds: $4.75 for those that want to know, why all the multi's? it's simple to me that there is no value this week in the outright head to head's and am looking for a bit of value. bets placed 4:20pm east friday
'oh were from tigerland allright!. pack of underperforming muppets they were today. so because my team played like spastics, I thought i'd have another bet. for those that want to read a forum that is politically correct, look away now! R2 / B6: 5 leg multi - gcoast / port / freo / hawks / north bet: $100 odds: $4.51 bet placed 6:47 aest saturday
Where is the Asprin? Massive headache! What on earth is happening with the footy results. Four upsets this week and the biggest shock goes to Hawthorn & Gold Coast. Both started as $1.17 favourites and both played like the 4/1 outsider. Apart from the head to head bet I had on WCE on Friday night which resulted in a collect, the dreaded multi bet curse struck again. If you got all selections correct this week, well then, your a freak! The doggies seem to be playing with a lot more vigour, the Saints win 'on the road' on a shortened week and looks like 'whatever Essendon was injected with', is still working. Seriously though, well done Bombers. No Gibson and Mitchell and it was a case of 'Ha Ha Hawthorn!' I'm actually glad I couldn't be stuffed betting again Sunday morning as more cashola would of been flushed down the dunny with a 3 leg multi that would of involved all the favourites. The current summary doesn't look 'crash hot' and all I can do now is wait and see what the markets look like on Friday. Round 2 summary: Bets: 6 - Won (1) Lost (5) Profit/Loss for round: Loss ($210) Round Turnover: $360 Year to Date Figures: Bets: 16 - Won (3) Lost (13) Profit/Loss for year: Loss ($896) Total turnover: $1,710
busy, busy at work - gotta be quick Round 3/ bet 1: st.kilda win $40 bet: $40 odds: $2.90 r3/ b2 :st.kilda line +15.5 bet: $60 odds: $1.92 bets placed 2:41pm aest friday r3 / b3: 9 leg multi stk/carlton/Adelaide/Sydney/north/Richmond/hawthorn/cats/freo bet:$25 odds:$72.12 bet placed 2:48pm aest Friday
looks like the saints upset win wont happen so a live bet comes into play r3 / b4: total game score under 203.5 bet:$125 odds:$1.85 bet placed at 3/4 time 9:55pm
some might be thinking -'yarni do you know what the hell you are doing?' i'm beginning to think that myself at this stage. so similar to supercoach and trading, I am not going to chase the past - what has happened, has happened. time to move on as I have a long season ahead of me and like last year where I had a slump in the early rounds, I put my head down and chipped away to a respectable result. I put that live bet on at 3/4 and I saw the total points market at 206.5. the phone was actually ringing while I was looking at that market. once the phone got answered and I got the guy to find the market, place the bet, reply the bet back to me, ask me is this what I want - the market amended and the new points line was 203.5. it was at this stage I thought 'fuck it' and I still placed the bet. I wasn't overly pleased with the market move as I would have won on the line I was originally going to bet on. so now that I have had my spit, let's look at the rest of the week. carlton and the bombers line up at the 'g' and most will say that the bombers are a shoe in. they are $1.26 fav and the line is 26.5. I am tipping the blues for what it's worth. I like the way carlton have started in the first 1/4 this year and I think they may hold a quarter time lead. are Essendon good? maybe they are. do they deserve to be $1.26? - absolutely not. it's line or margin betting here for me Adelaide vs melb. Adelaide at $1.08. wow! Melbourne have played 6 of 8 quarters with solid football. it was the last 2 quarters they have played that may see paul roos with the tony jewell hairstyle by the end of the year. I do think Adelaide will win and if you were to be having a single bet on this game, I would steer you to the margin markets with Adelaide 40+ @ $1.55 Sydney vs gws. surely there will not be a repeat of what appened between these two teams last year in round 1! the swans are up and about and as much as the gws have solid players in their team they are not playing like one. they did fire in the second half against the demons but when they take the field against Sydney, they will see that play time is over. Sydney at the line of 36.5 should be a fair bet here. the kangas vs port. I am tipping the upset here. the markets are close and I think that there is good value across most common markets. I don't think that the game will be a blow out, so the margin betting 1-39 for both teams offers good value. $2.45 the power & $2.55 the kangas should have punters alive well into the final quarter. Brisbane play host to Richmond and the lions have not fired a shot all year. the bookies have the tigers @ $1.48 and the lions @ $2.70. I think the tigers will get this win - just!. it wont be a pretty game as I believe both teams haven't hit their potential form this year. I like the line here. either way the 13.5.points is a fair reflection of the winning margin in this one. hawks vs bulldogs. this all of a sudden is going to be a very good game to watch after the performance of both teams this year, especially the bulldogs - now going for 3 in a row. the $1.08 on the hawks is ridiculous and that market is only there for the 'junket punters ' who will load up in the thousands on this game to recover their donation from last week. for me, I like the line betting. if the bulldogs play with the same vigour as the last 2 weeks, I can see no way them getting blown away in this one. the line is 49.5. my money will be on the doggies side of the line. the cats vs g.coast. this surely would be the best bet in the round if you wanted to 'bet the mortgage'. the cats have played 2 tough teams and the suns can't even blow up a 30cm balloon. to make matters worse for the suns, no ablett. the cats will bounce back here and I think in a big way. as single bets go,the line bet at 37.5 is a good place to look. I also see that the ht/ft cats market is $1.33. multi betting I like the ht/ft and for single bet punters, the line should be the way to go. lastly the wce vs freo game. do yourself a favour and do not contemplate a wce win here. they are playing the new rocket ship of the afl and will be playing very deep in September. I am surprised even at the head to head betting of $1.35 for them. I personally feel that it should be even shorter. for extra value, the line @ 20.5 points is good value at odds of $1.92 so that is my summation for the rest of the week and it's time to look at my initial bets below. round 3 / bet 5: adel / syd ht/ft / Richmond / nth 1-39 / cats ht/ft / freo -20.5 / bulldogs +49.5 bet: $40 odds: $26.37 r3 / b6: carlton +.26.5 bet: $50 odds: $1.92 r3 / b7: Sydney line @ -36.5 bet: $50 odds: $1.92 r3 / b8: Richmond line @ -12.5 bet: $50 odds: $1.92 r3 / b9 : north Melbourne 1-39 bet: $50 odds: $2.50 r3 / b10: western bulldogs line +49.5 bet: $50 odds: $1.92 r3 / b11: carlton +24.5 / Adelaide / Sydney -34.5 bet: $50 odds: $3.98 r3 / b12: Adelaide / Richmond / western bulldogs +49.5 / geelong ht/ft / fremantle -20.5 bet: $50 odds: $7.83 all bets placed between 9-11am Saturday morning. some markets changed as I put the bets on progressively. the narrative above the bets was correct at the time of writing. good luck to all punters and let's take the money off the bookies!
Surely I have bled enough!. I decided to jump on a couple of outsiders this round and unlike last week, all the faves this week saluted. another horrible week for me on the punt and its about time I got my shit together. after a poor Friday night, where I bet on tilt on a changed market ( which I lost), I was happy that the blues won the line bet. Adelaide did as expected and won but it was closer than what I thought. All I needed now was Sydney to win by more than 34 and I hit a 3 leg multi. the fact they were up by this margin by half time, I thought, yep, the tide has turned. oopsies!!!! not to be! port & north turned out to be the close game I expected but the kangas couldn't get up for me. Richmond continues their winning ways at the gabba and i'll admit that I was quite surprised by the winning margin. no boyd & bonts and a hawthorn team that turned up to play, quickly squashed my idea of the bulldogs putting up a better fight and keeping the margin lower than what it was. the cats just scraped over the line and I saw a new Geelong. they are no longer the powerhouse. they had a bloody good run though. fremantle touched up wce and got to their line of 20.5. if they didn't put the cue in the rack at 3/4 time, they would of won by double their margin. in the end it was a sad tale for me on the punt and am now looking for some wisdom in picking which teams will recover some of my monies next round. well done to those that did well on the punt and don't be shy and share a good punting story. a summary of the year is below. for the record, the $40 st.kilda win bet was refunded to me under a current Sportsbet promotion - hence I noted the stand off as a win. Round 3 summary: Bets: 12 ...Won (3) Lost (9) Profit/Loss for round: Loss ($408) Round Turnover: $640 Year to Date Figures: Bets: 28 - Won (6) Lost (22) Profit/Loss for year: Loss ($1,304) Total turnover: $2,350
Round 4 selection: Welcome to round 4 fellow punters. Last week proved to be a hit for those that backed the card last week and it wouldn't have been too hard with all the faves getting up. If it were that easy, we'd all give up our day jobs. So this week we could see the same result - all favorites. The round starts off with the Tigers vs Melbourne. The Tigers start favorites @ $1.35 and the Dees are $3.45. The line is 20.5. I feel the Tigers will do just enough to win this and I like the margin bet 1-39 @ $2.05. If you think the Dees can post a small upset, the $3.90 for 1-39 margin is very appealing. Anzac Day kicks off in New Zealand with Carlton vs St.Kilda. $1.39 Carlton vs $3.05 St.Kilda is the current market. Line is 19.5. I like Carlton to win this. No Riewoldt is the main factor here. Both forward lines lack punch and I like the 1-39 Blues @ $2.10 here. The blockbuster - Essendon $1.42 vs Pies $2.95. Line is 17.5. I think the wet weather tomorrow will play a part in keeping the winning margin below 40 points. So I would look at that market for value. Bobers are $2.10 and the Pies $3.60. For mine its the Bombers at this margin. GWS $1.41 vs G.Coast $3.00. Line is 18.5. I can't see either team getting thumped here and once again the 1-39 margin markets appeal for value. GWS $2.20 and G.Coast $3.60 are the prices. My money will sit on GWS at margin betting here. Port $2.45 vs Hawks $1.57 should be a cracker of a game. The Gray omission has shifted the markets and Hawks firmed from $1.66 at 9am. I once again can't see the blow out here and the Hawks 1-39 @ $2.25 is where I think the money should go. Fremantle $1.64 vs Sydney $2.30 is a game where I think the only upset will come. As powerful as Freo has been this year, I have this gut feeling that the Swans forward line will play well. Will it be enough to win, maybe. The 1-39 margin markets is where your money should lie. Freo $2.20, Swans $2.75. This is anyones guess. Brisbane $2.75 vs WCE $1.45 at the Gabba is a strange market in my opinion. I certainly wouldn't touch the head to head betting if you like West Coast - they are too short. The line is 16.5. I have a sneaking suspicion that the lions at the line could be a go here @ $1.92. Cats $2.30 vs North $1.62. North will will this. Gone are the all mighty Cats. In fact, i'll make the early call - THEY WILL NOT MAKE THE FINALS THIS YEAR. To get some added value here, put your money on the 1-39 margin @ $2.25 the Kangas Bulldogs $3.70 vs Adelaide $1.28. Adelaide in form will continue their winning ways. The Bont will line up and play from all reports but it won't be enough to stop the Crows. The line is at 24.5. The line -24.5 Crows will keep you on your toes up until the final siren. Considering all the above, my initial bets are below: Round 4 / Bet 1: Richmond 1-39 bet: $75 odds: $2.05 R4 / B2: multi - all the faves in the 1-39 bracket except the last game Adel just the win bet: $25 odds: $623.78 R4/B3: - multi - all the faves outright win bet:$40 odds: $28.65 all bets placed Friday 430ish pm.more bets will follow tomorrow tomorrow. live betting tonight may also come into play. good luck punters.
round 4 live bet: game points under 147.5 bet: $50 odds: $1.85 bet placed with 16:43 left in 3rd quarter
round 4 con't. round 4 / bet 5: Essendon 1-39 bet:$75 odds: $2.05 r4/b6:gws 1-39 bet:$50 odds:$2.15 r4/b7: hawthorn 1-39 bet:$50 odds:$2.25 r4/b8: fremantle 1-39 bet:$50 odds:$2.15 r4/b9: 4 leg - all 4 teams to win 1-39 - ess,gws,haw,freo bet:$40 odds:$21.32 r4/b10: 5 leg - all to win - ess/gws/haw/fre/adel bet:$60 odds:$6.13 r4/b11:ess win / gws 1-39 bet$60 odds:$3.05 bets placed sat 12:30pm
Two new bets. ... R4 b12....gws 1 to 39 Bet 70 Odds 2.10 R4 b13 Bet 75: gws 1-39/haw 1-39 Odds 4.73 Bets placed just now after being bent over again. If there any punters out there with a little extra luck, can you throw some my way because i am sick and tired of fucking losing
and the fun continues.............. round 4/bet 14: haw 1-39/freo 1-39 bet $100 odds 4.72 bet placed just b4 the bounce of the port/hawks game