2017 Review - The Year of the Buffalo

Welcome to my epic review thread.

Being in a job has taught me how to put numbers on a page, make them look pretty and then convincingly tell you that one number went up or down because another one increased or decreased. It’s a skill I’ve honed for over a decade by typing formulas into Excel, copying them down and across, putting in some bright colours, and, most importantly of all, putting all of this into a Powerpoint presentation. I make sure that when I present all the numbers I use words like strategic, leading, correlation, position, alignment and effective. Colleagues stare at the slides in awe and wonder, nod their heads and furiously scribble notes. There’s the key to success right there and is what was kept me away from the Centrelink office. I’ve utilised these secrets while writing this review. A copy of this work is not available. Awesomeness cannot be duplicated.

2017 was the year @wrightbrendan put Serengeti on the map. In his first finals appearance he won all 3 matches to claim the FU Premiership. His off season changes and natural improvement in the squad saw him rise a massive 12 places in points scored, from 15th to 3rd. The Buffaloes were carried by the mids and forwards, being ranked 1st and 4th respectively. The 4 position drop in the ruck line probably looks worse than it is (with just the one player affected) but he still had a top 10 ruck division. What’s interesting is the 10 position drop in the scoring power of the defenders to be the 16th best/3rd worst defensive 4 in the FU. It seems a bit of a worry but it didn’t stop the Buffaloes from winning the last weekend in August. It goes to show that there is strong correlation between points scored and wins and that the strong alignment and strategic focus of the Buffalo team ensured an effective approach to coaching and list management this year to be able to claim a leading position in the FU.

@DamoH claimed the Runner’s Up Plate from his 2nd finals appearance. The Smugglers reached the Prelim back in 2014, going down to eventual Premier Ararat. With the return of Kreuzer, the Smugglers had the best scoring ruck line in the competition. Martin, Beams and Heppell pushed the midfield ranking up 12 positions to be 5th best this year and subsequently improved their scoring power to be the 7th best in the FU. The defensive line suffered a small drop to be 11th best but geez, having the worst forward line in the comp didn’t do the team any favours. I’m sure coaching staff will be flogging Deledio and LeCras this offseason to try and get some juice out of these oldies – that is if LeCras survives the delistment period.

Other notable changes:

• Southern Cross improved by a huge 7 wins this year. A large part of it was due to the return of ASADA players in Hurley, Ryder, and Hibberd which explains the improvement in the defensive and ruck/forward lines. Having a top 20 mid in Fyfe back playing certainly helped out the midfield rank.
• Korumburra’s trading helped add 5 wins to the results column driven by a huge improvement in the defensive line to be the best in the comp – trading Docherty in over the offseason helped.
• Although Cow Bay improved from 1 win to 5 wins this year, they were still the lowest scoring team. The 3rd best forward line in the FU is something to build around but there are big issues across the rest of the team.
• Gisborne added 3 wins this year. There was improvement across the mids, ruck and forwards. Defense and the interchange slid a little but that’s no cause for concern.
• Ararat, Banchang and Blanchetown all slid the most this year. All suffered drops in their midfield rankings. Although @choppers traded out one of the best defenders in the comp he still had the 3rd best defensive line.

Looking at past premiers goes to show that you don’t need to be dominant across all lines. You can afford to have one line that’s below the FU average but as for the rest of your lines, one can be average but you need 2 in the top 5 for you to have a shot come August.

Doing a quick correlation exercise and the midfield and interchange lines have the strongest correlation with the total points scored rankings. This shouldn’t surprise, especially when the best SC scorers are mids. Get the midfield sorted out and you’ve got something to build a successful team around.

 

Now for overall stats. @insider has the best H&A season winning percentage as coach with a massive 72% of games won. No surprise that I have the worst. 2018 will bring Ararat their 50th win and me my 10th win. Eden, Southern Cross and Serengeti have the chance to bring their winning percentages up to 50% in 2018.

Everyone seems to have a team that’s their kryptonite, Ararat has Groote and Pakenham whereas the only team Cow Bay have the wood over is Hughenden.



Just 3 teams now haven’t had a taste of finals – Cow Bay, Gisborne and Hughenden. Which is more likely to get to finals first? Hard to say when we all finished in the bottom 4 this year.

 

The 2017 year was one of change with the 28 man squads being voted in. The big question, did it make the FU more competitive? The answer is yes. Taking out all matches in FU history where a team wasn’t entered and subsequently scored 0 (occurred 5 times in 2014 and twice in 2015), we can see that the average winning margin dropped from 168 last year to 138 this year. The median score was pretty much the same as last year but the lowest and bottom quartile scores all increased. The total points scored across the league also rose by 1.4% to 735k. Better cover meant an improvement in scores.



Who’s the biggest beneficiary? Hard to say when you’ve got improvement in players, trades, delistments and drafting but looking at only the numbers you’d have to say Cow Bay. The median score put out by the Crocs this year increased by 184 points and was the best in their history. The average margin improved by 188 points to a 112 point loss each round.





Taking this further, 2017 saw more teams recording their lowest score and highest losing score ever. Serengeti and Cow Bay both recorded the highest score in their histories but 1,205 for the Crocs looks pretty embarrassing when the next lowest highest score is Banchang’s 1,415.

Interestingly we saw 5 teams participating in matches that had the highest match aggregate in their history. The Vikings and Buffaloes faced off in FU round 8 with a total match score of 2,899 (scoring 1,398 and 1,501 respectively). On the flip side, the next round Banchang and Coolgardie recorded their lowest total match scores that they’ve been part of in their FU history scoring 726 and 1,029 respectively for an aggregate score of 1,755.

 

With better trading, drafting and a more even competition, just the one team broke the magical 1,500 score barrier this year – Serengeti in FU round 8. This effort was the 9th best in FU history. We also only saw one score low enough to be entered into the 20 lowest scores, Banchang’s 726 point effort in FU round 9.





We saw 6 matches that were high scoring enough to make it into the top 20 of all FU time. Nuytsland and Serengeti played in 3 of these matches, Southern Cross and Christmas Island in 2. While this year’s FU Grand Final was a high scoring affair being ranked the 16th highest of all time, it didn’t beat last year’s Grand Final between Ararat and Groote which had 26 more points scored.



Coolgardie unfortunately took part in 2 matches this year which are in the 20 lowest scoring we’ve seen – against Banchang in round 9 and Hughenden in the final round of the FU H&A season. At least the round 9 effort wasn’t as bad as the final round in 2014 where the bottom 2 teams Cow Bay and the now defunct Manangatang were fighting it out for the coveted PSD pick #1.



Southern Cross claimed the scalp of the Grenades in the first round after the byes this year (FU round 13) and took down Gisborne by 473 points, the 17th worst defeat in FU history.

 

Time to gaze into the magical crystal ball to see what’s in store for us in 2018. Well, there will definitely be many important things to look forward to like public holidays, weekends and another season of FU. A division 1 Powerball win would be nice too. The Vikings look a scary prospect having been ranked in the top 5 across all lines and top 2 in 3 of them. Southern Cross were unlucky to get knocked out in week one of the finals and it goes to show that it’s what happens in August that matters. Groote and Serengeti are likely to see August action again. History shows that 3 or 4 teams will slip out of the top 8. The teams that finished 6th (Staghorn), 7th (Pakenham) and 8th (Korumburra) post finals in 2015 all missed finals the following year. This year, the teams that finished 3rd (King Island), 4th (Pearcedale), 5th (Blanchetown) and 7th (Banchang) in 2016 missed finals in 2017. A 7th placed finish (Coolgardie) doesn’t seem so lucky anymore. As a random stab in the dark, Ararat and Korumburra are probably most at risk of missing the top 8 next year as well but they’re shrewd traders so who knows what they’ll pull out of the hat this offseason.

 

@fresh Thought you were taking a break mate

That's some awesome analysis POTY for me. You're right, doesn't matter where you finish in the 8 if you don't perform in the finals. We have such an awesome league, I've lost all interest in traditional SC since ORFFU started; it's all about the Sandgropers for me.

Great work mate now go spend some time living

 

Not being part of finals meant I had some time on my hands

Anyway, why use precious personal time? The majority of the hours I spent putting this together were during work hours...might as well get paid to do something useful rather than making the moronic boss look good.

 

Mate that's some serious analysis!

The Bulls would however would like inclusion in the following graph

 

You sure you boys weren't just drinking cream whiskey together and forgot there was a game on?

 

@fresh I am in awe of what you have put together......totally blown away, a massive thank you

 

Have you tried turning it off and on again? Is it plugged in?
The Bulls should be there now.

 

Great work @fresh, the Whalers still seem to be just average (or thereabouts). Might have to make some bigger trades

 

Top shelf work mate. Love any Excel analysis!
Not being able to field a full defensive line certainly didn't help in the first half of the season but fortunately enough bodies held together by the end!

 

Cracking work as usual @fresh although I think the addition of "low-hanging fruit", "granularity" and "MECE" will add to the usability of the subsequent powerpoint.

And the Smugglers are the worst forward line in the comp? That's a hell of a fall after being the best for the past 2 years. Methinks the trading period is about to start at Flying Fish Cove Park...

 

Cmon @JPK , a straight copy and paste of the 5 posts into 5 slides will do the trick, just add a company logo and shoot down anyone that complains about the font being too small because you resized to 2 so that it fits onto the slide.

Thanks for pointing about the Ararat table. Thought I had fixed that up last night but should be ok now

 

Good to see someone else has the keys to success.
I've always laughed whenever someone used 'low hanging fruit' but that could just be my immaturity...where are the cherry and banana emoticons when you need them?!

 

What great work, an awesome read. I knew we were on the slide, but she's a pretty steep one!