Advice on the Downgrade/Upgrage before the Bubble Pops!

Discussion in 'AFL' started by Gonaddz, May 7, 2012.

  1. Gonaddz

    Gonaddz Member

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    OK I think I'm ready for my very first Downgrade/Upgrade and just wanted to see if I'm doing the right thing with the options I have.

    In mids I have a choice to downgrade either Greene, Shiel, Old Mac or Magner to Horsley so who do I choose? I'm leaning towards either Shiel or Magner.

    Then upgrading Stanley -------> Chapman in the Forward line.

    Do I have the right idea? Will be left with 70 to 100K depending who I pick to send to the slaughterhouse
     
  2. Lucas

    Lucas Moderator Staff Member

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    Who are your upgrade options?
    Stanley probably has a few more weeks to moo I would have thought.

    Normally you try to work out when a player has hit his mark when the breakeven = the player's average, or exceeds significantly. Some would have traded out Devon Smith early using this from last week, but now with that 100+ it appears he will get another few weeks to grow especially as that 17 works its way out of his last 3 weeks.

    In terms of upgrades, again, depends on the situation, but I try to hit a happy medium of doing both down and up with players who have hit their level. Unless I see an opening to grab a player and need to do it this week to avoid missing the boat.
     
  3. stkildathunda

    stkildathunda Moderator

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    Think if going to cash someone in this week for Horsley it has to be Magner. He is playing so many different roles it's not funny!
     
  4. Gonaddz

    Gonaddz Member

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    Nice Advice Lucas to upgrade I have:

    Forward Line: Porplyzia, Smith,D and Treloar

    Ruck: Giles

    Mids: As stated before.

    Def: Hargrave, Lake, Bugg, Mohr, Ellis and Smedts

    I also agree with you that Magner has too many roles and I'm thinking of shipping him out but Shiel will get me more cash in the kitty if I send him on his way.
     
  5. TopHeavy

    TopHeavy Member

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    Also just as important as with when to sell, try to time your upgrades when the premium is bottoming out. For example I'll be getting Murphy in the next week or two. Can save around 50k on each trade.
     
  6. H_Dons

    H_Dons New Member

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    And Horsley is a boat you don't want to miss.

    Even though all those cows you mentioned still have some moo-ing to go, you are going to make more money long term by downgrading one of them now to Horsley.

    I am downgrading Magner this week, then waiting another week before doing any upgrades...was thinking Kennedy to Stevie J but I think I'm just going to hold on.

    I already culled Shiel last week, this was far too early, but I needed Pendlebury in at his cheapest price - which turned out to be true! He will never be that cheap again.

    Definitely keep Greene and Old Mac - perhaps even Shiel as well! I think Magner is going to continue getting tagging roles and his 60's/70's just won't increase his price that much more.
     
  7. Gonaddz

    Gonaddz Member

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    Thanks a lot TopHeavy and H_Dons!

    I still need to figure out when to get Goddard in my side as I need him as well but with Goodes injured it just made sense to get Chappy in before you can't afford him too.
     
  8. silacious

    silacious New Member

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    Yeah i'm brining in Horsley for Magner and dumping stanley for sidebum, i've watched him for a few weeks not in great form. This all depends on team selections on thursday night though
     
  9. chris88

    chris88 1000 Monkeys at 1000 Typewriters Staff Member

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    Magner is definitely the prime candidate to be downgraded.

    As for upgrades, as said above, look for the range of premiums you want who are at or near their lowest price.
     
  10. Gonaddz

    Gonaddz Member

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    So with that said where is Goddard in all this? Is he at the very bottom of the range? I have to get him next.
     
  11. Lucas

    Lucas Moderator Staff Member

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    Horse is the type of player who can provide useful emergency coverage.

    Still would be interested to see his role when GAJ returns. Swallow's injury has come at a fortuitous time.
     
  12. Lucas

    Lucas Moderator Staff Member

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    Goddard I'd say is 50-50 to go down next week with his BE of 137.
    Against Carlton maybe a fair chance to hit 115 but no more.
    Then WCE in Perth and Sydney.

    All these 3 teams will pull the Pie out from under him, and I'd suggest 100 average would be the most I'd expect through these games.

    So he's one I'm not sure about. I don't have him, I know I'd be costing myself about 30 per game not having him, but could get him considerably cheaper after the bye. For mine it's probably either this week or wait a fair few.

    I do realise he was able to score v Hawthorn this week as a counter to the "100 average in next 3" argument.
     
  13. The_General

    The_General Member

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    If you have Stanley he has to go. Dropped 10k last week and his BE is double what he has been scoring for the last couple of weeks. One word SPUD! I would have though Big Mac out would have helped him!
     
  14. Gonaddz

    Gonaddz Member

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    Cheers Lucas! That Goddard info is priceless! I feel better on waiting to get him in my side just have to decide between Chappy and Sidebum to replace Stanly as The_General is quite right that the word SPUD! fits the description to a T
     
  15. KTBFFH

    KTBFFH New Member

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    I think it is almost essential to bring Horsley/Adams in this week. However I have McEvoy, and I can only make two trades this week

    Not sure what to do with McEvoy. I have Giles/McIntosh to cover McEvoy. I know it's a lot of money to have on the bench, but is it worth just keeping him on the bench until the bye rounds?
     
  16. silacious

    silacious New Member

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    Yeah stanley is a deadset spud, they threw him in the ruck in the last quarter, he had a few taps. Blake did a good job in the ruck when McEvoy went down.
     
  17. H_Dons

    H_Dons New Member

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    <blockquote>Quote from KTBFFH on May 7, 2012, 13:50
    I think it is almost essential to bring Horsley/Adams in this week. However I have McEvoy, and I can only make two trades this week

    Not sure what to do with McEvoy. I have Giles/McIntosh to cover McEvoy. I know it's a lot of money to have on the bench, but is it worth just keeping him on the bench until the bye rounds?</blockquote>

    With Giles as cover, it is manageable to bench McEvoy - if he is your ONLY premium player riding the pine.

    Normally if its 4 weeks or longer, the premium must go! But if you really want him you could keep him...there are perhaps a few good options for a sideways trade though (No downgrades available in rucks yet)

    I think I'm going to go two downgrades this week. Get Adams and Horse in, at the expense of Magner and Kennedy.

    Then I can get two upgrades next week...hello Godddard and Cox :)

     
  18. turbo

    turbo New Member

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    Yeah, could actually be a double downgrade this week to Horsley and Adams rather than up/down, depending on whether Miles gets named for GWS. Adams will also open up MPP if required.
     
  19. shortsandahoody

    shortsandahoody New Member

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    Horsley and Adams are gonna be in so many teams this week, everyone will be picking up at least 1 i think. I hope everyone only brings in 1, because ill be bringing in both.. Would like to hold Magner another week but he has to go, tempted to trade out Ledger instead, but keeping Ledger, hopefully he plays during the bye weeks!

    My question is who gets traded out, Kennedy, Milera or Porplysia(d7 atm), dont have Stanley or Smith if others have them i would say Stanley would be obvious choice to go, and Smith would stay after his 111..

    Think it has to be Kennedy traded out his BE is the highest, and he has the 1st bye in round 11, though trading the other 2 out would get more money in the bank.
     
  20. shortsandahoody

    shortsandahoody New Member

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    @KTBFFH,
    Youve got good cover with Hmac/Giles, i wouldnt waste a trade on McEvoy out if its 4-5 weeks. Also there is a lack of options in my opinion, lots of ruckman under injury clouds, with possible rests and arent scoring enough..
     

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