Welcome to the first of my Finals Previews.   This week is packed with four fantastic matches, all of the teams playing off have history against each other, and there is plenty to be said for 4 finals in Melbourne in week 1 of the series.   It has the potential to explode with action this weekend.

First, I need to look at the things leading up to the matches.   Because like all great dramas, the main action is predicated on key prior events, that often are only easily found when looking from a past perspective.   This weekend, we are looking at teams with different preparations - some squaring off, and others possibly leaving their powder dry for later battles.

FIXTURE FORTUNE - Geelong, Carlton and Essendon

Player management doesnt get any easier than this.   Their recent bye presents a perfect opportunity for freshening up a tired team.   Essendon "hit the wall" earlier in the season when going on a long run without a weekend off, and so this bye in Round 24 is just the tonic to provide them with a readiness for the trials ahead.   Personally, I think Geelong has it perfectly positioned.  A week off, then a few matches to get the rust off should see them hit finals in absolute peak condition.

FLAT TO THE FLOOR - St Kilda, West Coast and (to an extent Sydney)

These teams have in the case of WCE and St Kilda had a long run without a bye.   But their solution is not really to give a dose of "The General" but simply to put them in to perform week-in, week out.   It is a day job after all.   Sydney showed signs of fatigue, but have managed their run home well to go in with a great sense of confidence.   The Saints and Eagles might be running on the smell of an oily rag, but who argues with a locomotive with all that momentum?  Only Superman.

RESTING AND, DARE WE SAY IT, TANKING - Hawthorn and Collingwood

Two teams beset by niggling injuries all year have struggled to get their team in peak shape all season, but when it counts the most, who will doubt the physical preparation of the men from these two power clubs?   "Round 24 will have no bearing on the finals series" is their mantra, and while form is not something to be played around with, there is certainly an edge that only finals series creates.   I dont think the last game was ideal for either of these teams, but personally, Im not sure it matters.   We will see whether resting and tanking works this weekend to get them the vital week off.

My match previews after the break...

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Geelong v Hawthorn

Recent History - Geelong have defeated the Hawks in every game since the 2008 Grand Final.  This has involved amazing comebacks in almost all games.  The mental strength of the Cats is enormous and will be put to the test tonight.

Past Finals History - 1963 GF was the last finals success for the Cats over the Hawks, but you could hardly call the 89 GF, 91 2SF and 08 GF crushing wins either.   For motivation the Cats could do worse than read this mocking article in the Age: <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/wake-up-sleepy-hollow-the-hawks-rule-the-roost-20110908-1jzse.html">http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/wake-up-sleepy-hollow-the-hawks-rule-the-roost-20110908-1jzse.html[/url].   Though I scarcely think any Scott coached side will need any motivation outside of the want for fresh blood.

Game Style - Neither play a full forward press.   Geelong likes strong direct football through the corridor, and loose men in defence.  Hawthorn likes to use the ball by foot and slice other teams apart.   As such I think todays game will be about which forward line, when undermanned, can get enough goals in a burst to win.    Both teams will be happy for the ball to be in their defence, and both defences will be on top for most of the game.

Prediction - As Geelong possesses a better balance of smalls and talls in defence, I believe that, plus Ottens in the ruck being more than a match for Bailey/Hale, the Cats will run out 25 point winners with a scoreline of 85-60 not surprising.

Collingwood v West Coast

Recent History: Collingwood has been pretty strong against the Eagles, but lets face it they rarely square off, generally only playing once a year (quite often in Melbourne).   Pies have won the last 6 including two at Subiaco

Past Finals History:  These two clubs do finals well.  1990 and 1994 there were two classic finals, a draw and a game decided by Mick McGuanes dropped mark.   The coach of the Eagles then is now coaching the Pies today, and his taunting captain in that day in 1994 "Nice Mark Micky" is in charge of the Eagles.   Not to be outdone, the 2007 semi-final in Subiaco had epic written all over it.

Game Style: These two clubs both play the press, and both very well with tactics to match.  The masters and the apprentices.   It will be interesting to see teams lining up in a mirror.   Some teams can play the press well, but get shredded when coming up against it.

Prediction: Collingwood has much at stake in this one, and a touch of class that will tell the tale in the final analysis.   Mick Malthouse said it took years to build this strategy (from its unleashing in the 2007 finals series) and its that experience that gives the Pies the edge.  This time anyway.   Pies by 27 points.

St Kilda v Sydney

Recent History: In general its  a bit potted between these two sides.   Sydney has won a very recent contest (but not at Docklands), and the Saints have done well also.  Id given the recent record slightly to the Saints.   An interesting fact that doesnt go unnoticed is that the Swans havent beaten the Saints at Docklands since 2000.   This is a big home ground advantage for St Kilda, which they would be foolish to throw away.

Past Finals History: These two teams have squared off a few times in recent finals.   One led to the demise of Stan Alves, another was a stirring Saints win in the wet, and the final one was one of the more painful recent memories, as the Bloods, inspired by Brett Kirk, won an epic Prelim Final and, inevitably covered themselves in glory a week later.   One things for sure, with the past matches between these two sides being bloody affairs, there will be the typical punches thrown in the packs with snipers raining supreme.

Game Style:  Its almost Masters Apprentice Mark I vs Masters Apprentice Mark II.   Longmire is cut from the same stock as Roos and Lyon, though the game style suggests a bit of Paganism has crept in.   Sydney this year have been most dangerous playing rebound attacking footy, rather than slow and steady - the Roos/Lyon/Tortoise way.   The Saints have been strong this year in the second half of games, and this has been prevalent recently.  I see that trend continuing.

Prediction: Swans to give a big shake early; the Saints though, inspired by Milne and their captain Riewoldt, will put on a clinic and will win by 8 goals.

Carlton v Essendon

Recent History: Carltons fear of the Bombers - which was maybe a Knights Tale - where the Dons won 6 in a row, has been crushed recently with two massive wins in their past three, plus a draw which most Blue fans would say was the game that got away (Fletcher and Simpson largely responsible).

Past Finals History:  These two teams love a good square-up.  Has it really been over a decade since their last finals meeting?   And over 18 years since "Michael Long look at this boy go....awaaaaaaay goes Michael Long.....50 metres out...(not bouncing the ball mind you)...30 metres out....it may have been touched on the line.....NO!"   Theres no doubt this game will be a sellout, and the type of game that should attract a full house even from the MCC.   Hang onto your hats, these guys love playing for sheep stations.

Game Style:  Both are trying to ape the Magpie way, but doing it differently.   Carlton is really honing in on contested balls.  Essendon is looking at the press.   Both look great when they are doing their jobs well, but when intensity is down, both teams are vulnerable.  Crameri out will hurt the Dons structure, and Im not sure the weeks rest will help.   It will in terms of being fresh, and they would have watched the last half of last week with interest as the Saints ground the Blues down (not that the Blues had much to play for).

Prediction - Id suggest Carltons consistency in effort is much improved this year, so I think they would be expected to bring a strong game this week.  Essendon recently would normally need something to go wrong at Carlton and things to go right for them to be in this sort of match.   Unless the Carlton choking factor (they are historically the biggest chokers of any team when they are the match favourites) comes out this week, they will be too good, and will run into another finals match.   Carlton by 32 points.

Happy finals everybody!

FOR HORNSY:
Win % in finals as home team:
Adel,63.6%
Bris,100.0%
Carlt,50.6%
Coll,55.1%
Ess,63.2%
Fitz,73.1%
Frem,66.7%
Geel,56.9%
GC,#DIV/0!
GWS,#DIV/0!
Hawth,82.8%
Melb,73.0%
North Melb,63.3%
Port Ad,70.0%
Rich,64.7%
Sydn,61.1%
St K,66.7%
Univ,#DIV/0!
Wstrn B,52.9%
West C,62.5%
,
Overall,62.3%

Win % in finals as away team:

Adel,40.0%
Bris,27.3%
Carlt,39.6%
Coll,30.9%
Ess,44.1%
Fitz,45.5%
Frem,0.0%
Geel,28.3%
GC,#DIV/0!
GWS,#DIV/0!
Hawth,45.9%
Melb,46.8%
North Melb,32.4%
Port Ad,14.3%
Rich,54.5%
Sydn,24.2%
St K,27.3%
Univ,#DIV/0!
Wstrn B,18.5%
West C,31.8%
,,,,,,,,,
Overall,36.4%