[caption id="attachment_2549" align="alignleft" width="300" caption="Mick&#039;s Peking Duck"]<a href="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/290680u5lnmig0v.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-2549 " src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/290680u5lnmig0v-300x205.jpg" alt="Micks Peking Duck" width="300" height="205" />[/url][/caption]

Mick Malthouse showed his wisdom through his twitter account (@mickmalthouse) yesterday, and I thought it was apt to the discussion on lovely tasty 100 ppg plus Premiums for 2011.

It goes a little something like this:  "Man stands for long time with mouth open before roast duck flies in. ~Chinese Proverb"

The concept fits with the site discussion here as we undertake our Fantasy Football Pre-Season.  Some will just take a few snippets and think that by taking out the cookie cutter, they will get themselves a 50k winning combination.  Im afraid even when youre not "too serious", even the best of us need to do their research, and back our trades up with more than hunches.

So what we have in this article is not a cookie from which to cut your team, but a menu for you to browse.  I will not be offended if you dont like the smell thats coming from my kitchen.   No one liked Carltons smell last year did they .

This article will attempt to take last years list of premiums and make some big assessments.  Foremost is the list of players that for reasons outlined wont make it in 2011.  I follow that up with a list of who I believe will move to Elite (120 ppg) in 2011, and those who missed out in 2010, but have tasted Premium ranking in the past, and will return in 2011.

All this, and another pic, after the break.

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[caption id="attachment_2552" align="alignright" width="198" caption="What goes up..."]<a href="Suat Eman / FreeDigitalPhotos.net[/url]"><img class="size-medium wp-image-2552 " src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/1104356swoe211h-198x300.jpg" alt="What goes up..." width="198" height="300" />[/url][/caption]

Its not much fun to play on a busted elevator.  One that you thought would go up, but actually goes down, or stays where it is.  Similarly its the same when you pick a player you think will have a great season, and they just dont come to the party.

Here, then, is my list of players who averaged 100 PPG last season, but wont be in 2011:

Alan Didak - Was a borderline premium last year, and with injury concerns clouding the preseason, a high 90s is expected.
Brent Harvey - I will be right in picking his demise one season.  This year, he will be serviceable, but needs to drop for North to prosper long-term.
Lenny Hayes - As a Saints fan here suggested, if he can only just sneak over 100 (103) average when he is border-line All Australian, what happens when he slightly misses a beat (or Nick Riewoldt returns for more of the year).  High 90s.
Shane Tuck - I cant work out how hes got here two of the past three years.  I can see him declining slowly over the next few years.
Kane Cornes - Borderline last season, will be thereabouts this year but I predict slightly lower.
Jude Bolton - Has always been between 95 and 105.  I can see him dropping to low 90s as he is 31 and there are other players to pick up the slack.
Shaun Burgoyne - Made an immediate impact at the Hawks who looked heaps better when he was there.  That said, this year I see him playing in more losses, with more than a few players improving their scores.  An average in the 90s with a declining share of the pie.
Kade Simpson - A steady performer, but every year throws up a Premium who flukes it.  That is Simpson.  If he keeps Premium form, he will get a more intense tag leading to lower scores, but I can see a low 90s year from him more from Judd/Murphy/Gibbs stealing a both points and game time.
Brian Lake - If the Dogs are to progress, they need to transfer points from defenders chipping around to forwards on the move.  That and a preseason from hell, are why I cant in good faith offer Lake in the list of 2011 Premiums (though he is likely to be in the top 7 defenders for the year)
Cameron Bruce - A bit like Burgoyne, less pie to eat at Hawthorn, an older player, and a changed role make it hard to predict what Bruce will do this year.  Cautiously I say high 80s.

So theres the 10 Im predicting a decline from.  Now that wasnt that hard was it?  Now, given I need to find some replacements, what better place to look, than at those who have reached Premium status in the past?

Here is my list of 7 players who will make the jump back the the Premium status:

Adam Goodes - Played out of position in 2010, and still averaged 94.  Im not convinced he wont play forward less this year, but after consistent 100+ years in the past, I back his return to the top flight.  That, and I cant see him kicking at 56.8 efficiency again.  Rectify this, and hes there.
Sam Mitchell - Without the strain of the back-stabbing Hodge gunning for the captaincy, I can see a real good year for Mitchell in 2011.  Another who for whatever reason had a significant drop in efficiency, I predict Mitchell will rework his game, get a bit more outside ball, and sneak back over 100.
Adam Cooney -  This guy is the difference between the Dogs being perennial bridesmaids, and the real deal, able to win the elusive 2nd flag.  This year is not quite make or break for Cooney, but he should fulfill his destiny and rise to near his 2008 Brownlow winning heights.  The key for the Dogs is to get him into places where he can be damaging, and with even continued disposal efficiency, him hitting the scoreboard should clearly get him over 100.
Dean Cox - Fully fit, with a new lease on life running free, I think Cox can return to the scores of previous years.  It remains to be seen whether last year was the first of a steady decline, or simply due to playing hurt.  Im inclined, for the 2010 season, to plump for the latter.  Cox to tandem with Naitanui, and to roam free.
Jonathan Brown - Again, its a very tough decision here, but Im figuring, if hes fit, hes in.  And after getting so much treatment last year, youd think he will start this year being groomed to be cherry ripe for Round 1.  His team needs him, and with no Fevola, will go back to giving him the best service they can.  I know Brisbanes midfield is diminished, but the pride of this Lion will remain.  A tick over the ton for JB.
Scott Thompson - No McLeod, No Goodwin, No Edwards, no hope for the Crows?  Maybe, but Im sure in my mind that means a few more points and a bit more responsibility will go to Thompson.  He can reclaim his spot in the premium ranks by probably just churning out another good year, but hoping that he gets some more support from the kids.
Dominic Cassisi - Its a strange call, ditching the DreamTeam specialist Kane Cornes, and replacing him with another Port player.  That said, I believe Cassisi can increase marginally his TOG this year with the new interchange rule, and with his tackling pressure more in keeping with the modern game than Kornes, he will be an even more vital cog in the Power midfield.

And the Elites for 2011: Goddard and Swan to stay, Ablett to go out for the first time since 2007, and Judd to return (for the first time since 2006 - dependent on him hitting the scoreboard more by resting forward due to interchange rule).  Really close to giving Selwood and Pendlebury a run here, but think another 115-119 for them is needed to earn their stripes.

So, Im sure you disagree with a few names on my list, and know that while I put these guys in this list, theres no guarantees theyre in my side.  Im probably more inclined to stick with the tried and true for my premiums...but anyway, let the discussion begin...

And for those who missed my last article on the premiums, heres a link: <a href="http://tooserious.net/premiums-the-initial-lowdown">http://tooserious.net/premiums-the-initial-lowdown[/url]