<strong style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px; color: #444444;]History says at least two teams who contested the 2012 finals will miss out this year.CHARLES HAPPELL[/b]
<p style='margin-bottom: 18px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px; color: #444444;]<strong style='font-size: inherit;]fromBACKPAGELEAD.COM.AUwonders which clubs might be on the way down, and out.[/b]
<p style='margin-bottom: 1.3em; font-family: Arial, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 22px; color: #333333;]It is a matter of historical fact that since the AFL introduced its first 'final eight' in 1994, never has the same group of teams qualified for September action in consecutive years. Inevitably, and as surely as cricket's summer follows footy's winter, there is change at the top of the ladder when each finals series comes around.
<p style='margin-bottom: 1.3em; font-family: Arial, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 22px; color: #333333;]A glance at the records over the past 20 years reveals that each season an average of three teams feature in the finals who, the previous year, were also-rans. Some years, it's just two new teams who force their way in, others (such as 2007) it's four - a full 50% of the final eight. Never has it been just one.
<p style='margin-bottom: 1.3em; font-family: Arial, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 22px; color: #333333;]Last year, North Melbourne, Adelaide and Fremantle scaled the heights to reach the top eight while Carlton, St Kilda and Essendon suffered a fall from grace, and September action. The Blues' horror year culminated in the dismissal of Brett Ratten.
<p style='margin-bottom: 1.3em; font-family: Arial, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 22px; color: #333333;]The year before, the Western Bulldogs dropped from fourth place, and Fremantle from sixth, down into the murky depths of the ladder. The slumps cost both teams' coaches (Rodney Eade and Mark Harvey) their jobs. West Coast and Essendon took their place, in fourth and eighth position respectively.
<p style='margin-bottom: 1.3em; font-family: Arial, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 22px; color: #333333;]For the record, here is the number of different teams who've qualified for the final eight, year upon year:
<p style='margin-bottom: 1.3em; font-family: Arial, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 22px; color: #333333;]2012 (compared to 2011) - 3

2011 - 2

2010 - 3

2009 - 3

2008 - 2

2007 - 4

2006 - 3

2005 - 2

2004 - 3

2003 - 2
<p style='margin-bottom: 1.3em; font-family: Arial, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 22px; color: #333333;]So anyone who has to pick the 2013 finalists for a competition, or even a wager, bear those figures in mind: don't choose the same eight teams that played off in 2012, because you'll get it WRONG.
<p style='margin-bottom: 1.3em; font-family: Arial, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 22px; color: #333333;]Which leads us to this year: which two, three or four teams are going to change?
<p style='margin-bottom: 1.3em; font-family: Arial, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 22px; color: #333333;]Most pundits from every two-bit media outlet seem convinced six teams are certainties for September action: Sydney, Hawthorn, West Coast, Fremantle, Collingwood and Geelong.
<p style='margin-bottom: 1.3em; font-family: Arial, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 22px; color: #333333;]There's a fair bit of smart money around for Carlton as well, now that Mick Malthouse has arrived at Princes Park with his moustache bristling. And Adelaide, North Melbourne, Richmond and Essendon have their share of supporters. St Kilda less so.
<p style='margin-bottom: 1.3em; font-family: Arial, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 22px; color: #333333;]The top eight sides from 2012 have been handicapped with a tougher fixture, meaning they play each other more often than they do the lower 10 clubs, and this is clearly the case with Hawthorn and North Melbourne who have been handed the draws from hell.
<p style='margin-bottom: 1.3em; font-family: Arial, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 22px; color: #333333;]The Hawks will also be handicapped by the loss of Matt Suckling and the seemingly inevitable speculation over Buddy Franklin's future which can only be a distraction.
<p style='margin-bottom: 1.3em; font-family: Arial, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 22px; color: #333333;]The truth is when you try to squeeze 18 teams into 22 rounds, something has to give. Some teams will cop Collingwood, West Coast and Sydney twice, while others get the footy equivalent of a ride in one of those sedan chairs with servants waving palm fronds and peeling grapes for you.
<p style='margin-bottom: 1.3em; font-family: Arial, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 22px; color: #333333;]So, heeding the historical lessons of the past 20 seasons, which teams will slip out of contention in 2013, thereby imperilling their coaches' futures? Could the Cats' dynasty finally be at an end? Will Hawthorn's myriad problems catch up with them in one annus horribilus? Will the Tippett-less Crows remain grounded? Are the Roos shaping as a one-season wonder?
<p style='margin-bottom: 1.3em; font-family: Arial, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 22px; color: #333333;]I'm plumping for Carlton and Richmond to jump into the eight (thereby falling short of the annual average of three 'new' teams in the finals each year) but finding it difficult to nominate the two teams they'll replace. At this stage, Adelaide and North top the list of likely sliders ... but I'll get back to you to confirm that.
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