Hi all,

I guess its the 2nd last edition of Be The Best as Impromptu remains P1 but we also have Shagga and Yamum in the drivers seat as well in P2 and P3.

Theres probably 8 teams in the running for the main prize, and in some ways thats being generous on these teams, but weve seen charges from a long way out, and I guess they are still possible providing everything goes right for these teams.   Any others and wed need to have some seriously strange results happening with multiple PODs and captains really shaking up the mix.

Heres my take: Impromptu is looking solid.   The only team that can really damage his in terms of defence is the Cunning Stunts (P4), but being 259 behind, its a big gap to make up on this alone.   Therefore the gap needs to be breached with not just defence, but also rucks.   Captains makes a difference, and to be honest, its hard to see mids being a key area of swings unless there are early injuries.   Which are, of course, possible.

In terms of the team that I think can do the most damage to Impromptu, Id suggest it is 2008 winner, resident quiet man and fast finisher Lings Bandits (P8).   There is a strong defence, backed with the strongest coverage of Gibbs/Scotland.   The midfield pits Murphy/Judd, Dal Santo/Selwood.   Pretty even, but you could see Lings team getting an edge.   Then you have the forwards, where again Johnson and Rioli are entered for again maximum pain to the P1.   Combined with Le Cras with WCE neat run home, you can see a team finely balancing risk and reward.   This is emphasised by Mumford in the R2 slot where Petrie is up against it.

On these changes alone, without captains influence, I could see potentially 80-90 points going the way of the Bandits each round.   This would leave the rest in the lap of the risk taking captain selection.   And of course, if I were Impromptu, Id stick with the most solid choice that I can, and if I were the Bandits, I would maximise the pain by using a player the P1 does not possess.  This could be Mumford or Dal Santo, Johnson or Rioli.

Final comments on each team over the break.

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Impromptu SCE - Expect to salute with victory unless decimated by players not being picked or getting injured.

Shags Nags  (112) - Needs to make a move again.  Has a strong R2, but not strong enough defenders to make inroads.  Has some dangerous forwards this week that could propel into the lead with Cloke and Johnson, but this strength might turn into a weakness next weekend.

Yamumlovesbigcox (152) - Reliant on the Hawks, McEvoy and captains to get him home.   Probably too similar to Impromptu so needs luck running his way.   The loss of Sylvia is massive because that POD could have done well.  Now its an SOB for his team instead.

Cunning Stunts (259) - Can make up ground this week, and has a strong list with which to pick.   Contains real pain players in Rioli, Johnson and Dal Santo (much like the Bandits).   McEvoy will be a key in reeling in the remaining deficit, as well as the defenders list not getting hit with an out this week (which could leave the team exposed).   A strong 22 does not always mean a strong 30.

Dont Do...Think (292) - Some nice PODs in Bartel, Goldstein and Fyfe that no other top team possesses.   But Broughton and Sylvia are losses even the best teams struggle to cover.   The coverage isnt bad, but unless there are a few trades in the locker, the PODs might not be good enough to make ground, only hold it.

Jeezebel (309) - Defence is decimated.   A trade is needed to avoid a donut, more than likely.   Hodge, Brennan and Didak are players who can go bang-bang-bang in the one week, and youd never count this team out of a big run.   Just needs to risk big, and hopefully trade strong in defence.    Maybe a straight swap to Bock could cause the havoc required.

Sack the Coach FFC (316) - Has taken risks to get where they have, but fair to say Jolly hasnt been successful.   The right ruck and could have found himself closer to the action.   Has the best depth of the top group, so would be hoping for the General to go slashing this week and next.   I  think a very strong captain selection and probably one that the others dont choose (so the one the others do choose can go down with injury) is the way to go.   Probably too far gone in my opinion.

Lings Bandits (332) - Cant count him out of any discussion.  Strong in defensive backup, has major pain points compared with the leader, and if I know their trade strategy, there are 3 left to go whack!   If so, 332 points is not insurmountable.   Im thinking he will end up top 5 but just miss out due to leaving the run a bit late, but like Doriemus in the 1997 Melbourne Cup its been great to watch the old stayer mow them down on the run home.

Good luck all on the run home.