Ive spent some time doing the analysis.   And its time for another issue of Beat the Best.

This time, unlike others, I do honestly believe the front crew are far enough away to ward off defeat.   Im almost prepared to say that those outside the top 10 are gone - but Im not considering that they can still make up enough points through trades to be about where I think 10th is.   But they would still have to pull some almighty risks to win, because the aim of the game is to have the most points at Round 24, not to have the best team!

So, its been brutal the last couple of weeks, but like the carnivorous Contador before him, The Cheeky Boys has run off with the prize, leaving all of the other chasing competitors gasping for breath.   Theres no Lance Armstrong in the chasing crew, nor any Schleck brothers.   All you can see down the road are bruised and almost beaten Cadel Evans.   With no support team, but knowing the time trial is soon, and maybe thats where a few seconds can be made up.

But just like chasing Contador, its often a futile exercise, because just as good as that Spanish conquistador is at bashing up the hills, hes equally talented on the flat.   For mine, I reckon Cheeky isnt home, but my goodness hes close to it.   And thats why this week is a week the chasing pack must fight together and bring him down a notch.

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In doing the analysis for the above, Ive noted the top 10 teams (plus I had a quick peek at Lings Bandits) and they are within 500 points from the lead (or in the case of Cheeky - in it).

Cruical points I think are the ability to get cover for the premiums when they take a rest (enforced or not), how many premiums have already had their bye (and could therefore conceivably mean points come back into play), and theres been a brief look at whether the team can stand multiple outs in a week.

From here the keys I see are:

This week Cheeky loses Fisher, Goddard, Adcock.  He has a complete spud on the bench so either theres a donut or a trade.

Sandilands is in 4 of the top ten teams.   He has to come back in 120 form for these teams to make up ground on the leader.   Im not certain Cheeky will have too many trades to spare, and will just persevere with Petrie-Smith.   Its a solid combo.

P3 and P4 - Wood is Good and Impromptu - have a crucial choice to make regarding a midfielder to replace Selwood.   I know I would be loading up on either a Collingwood or Gold Coast player.  As both have Ablett, the options are Swan (for Wood), Thomas or Rischitelli.   Id be going Swan/Thomas, in a last ditch attempt to claw back ground on P1.

Judd v Murphy...currently the apprentice has the edge over the master.   If that turns around it augurs well for P3/4/8 and not for the others.   I back Judd to pull at least some ground back, and for Murphy to start copping a heavy defensive tag.   Murphys more dangerous going forward than Judd and must be stopped.

P2 (aka Ya Mum Loves Big Cox) doesnt have Franklin.   He needs to smash this weekend and probably needs to take the lead if he is to win.   Very possible.

Chapman looms as a very important player on the run home.  Can he stay fit and provide an interesting point of difference? P2/4/9 really need this.   In fact just like Murphy is beating Judd, Johnson is beating Chapman.   Again I think that Chapman will turn the tide on the run home, but the only thing I have is a hunch on that one.

The real PODS are:
- Sylvia in P1/8
- Fyfe in P5 (DW)
- J Roo and LeCras in P8

In my view Shags Nags in P8 has a very risky side, but probably has one of the biggest chances to upset the applecart if things go awry for Cheeky.   What Shags needs is a massive week to gain 300 or 400 back.   And he also needs Sandilands to be out for a little longer.

Sack the Coach FFC in P9 I think is playing the bye expertly and will bring in Fisher next week.   Though a fair way down, with Pendlebury-Ablett-Swan in the middle a bit of ground can be made up.

Finally - can Lings Bandits win?
Personally on balance I say no.   Not quite enough points of difference, though if Nick Riewoldt cranks it up, then maybe.   N Roo and the selection of him on the ground or the bench is going to be worth points on the run home.   I think at the moment most teams will be content to start him on the bench, but its a risky business.   Still, N Roo is pretty handy bench coverage for a missing Franklin.

Feel free to analyse away!