Heres  an article on the leading team currently, The Juddicial System, and how to beat it.

First the team:

D: Deledio, Shaw, Goddard, Heppell, Laidler, Grimes, Duigan (Stanley, Lower, Coad)
M: Swan, Murphy, Curnow, Bartel, Liberatore, Harris (Van Berlo, Ward, Buckley)
R: Cox, Sandilands (Fraser, Curnow)
F: Pavlich, Harvey, J Riewoldt, Goodes, N Riewoldt, Darling, Yarran (Krakouer, Matera, Prestia)

Initially you think, there are some key differences here to the TooSerious standard.   No Judd, Selwood, Rioli, Gibbs.  No Franklin or Pendlebury.   Surprised?  I sure was.

The bad news is, lots of these guys appear to be on the cheap, and this team can get them.   But with Judd/Selwood/Pendlebury that comes at the risk of overloading on Carlton/Geelong/Collingwood in the midfield.   Has the top team gone for a gamble that Murphy and Bartel will beat Judd and Selwood over time?  If so, I think in the long run, he might be defeated (just on those selections alone).  But if those selections allowed him one extra premium, this could give the points/tempo edge needed.

So, some advice to catch up:

Back your quality mids to do a number on these guys.  For Bartel to slip back to the pack.
Query for Goodes/Pavlich/Harvey to last out the year without needing a few breathers, bye or non-bye induced.
Get Chapman in and firing in your team and hope Franklin goes on the rampage.

For some secret espionage work on this team and the rest of the top 10, lets have a look over the break!

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Using the patented TooSerious League function (not sure if its just for donors, but its a classic), we have tried to track the trades from the best teams, in addition to spying on the other teams in our leagues.  Haha, the power is ours.

So, without further ado, heres whats going on with the top teams trading from the tracker function!

1) They have been tracked since round 4, and last week traded out Higgins and Franklin for Goodes and J Riewoldt.   Looks like a few trades down at the moment for sure.
2) Tracked since Round 1.  6 trades down.  153k on hand.  Traded out Franklin last week (and Pavlich) for Harvey and Goodes.   Hmmm.
3) Tracked since Round 1, the Scarlet Pimpernel Impromptus team.   As expected 7 trades down.   We all know of the famous Sandilands out trade done recently.
4) Tracked since Round 1, has burned 8 trades and is ready for upgrading with 336k on hand.
5) and 6) Just started tracking.  On balance youd say 6-7 trades down, and 100k in the bank (looking at their rivals)
7) Missed R1 but if they didnt trade they have 5 down and 133 on hand.   Looking strong.
8) Missed R1 but 7 trades down and 56 on hand.  Last week Rioli and SJ became J Roo and Goodes.
9) and 10) Just started tracking.   Youd again probably think 6 trades down and 50-100 in the bank.

In addition, theres a fair bit of $ value in each of the teams listed.  But none are that much in front of say where I am with $11.5m.

So what does this mean?

Well I reckon a trade well made should be worth 280-300 points.

This represents a cash cow that allows you to up a player by 40 points over 15 rounds.  This would net 600 points over the rest of the year.

SO...if you have burned the same amount of trades and are down on the leaders, youre fighting a losing battle.   You should really trade hard into Points of Differences and hope that your players win in a head-to-head battle with the leaders each week.   (Not likely but worth a risk.)

If you have burned less, then you could be in with a chance, provided you can drill your other trades in the next few weeks.

Rommels Legion, I assume at P2583 is well out of contention.   But lets look at the facts.

I have $11.5 in team value.  Competitive but behind a few.   Pass mark.
I have made 3 trades.
I have a team that has copped injuries but stuck fat with them.  Selwood/Rioli.   Probably cost me a shot at the cash given the points hit I took vs a conservative team with say Murphy and Pavlich.
I am currently on 13078, 640 points off the lead.

Therefore by the rule of thumb,  a trade is worth 300 points if made perfectly, and I have 3-4 on most of my overall rivals, in that case Im well in the game.

Gotta nail them trades though.  Each week it gets tougher to get that 300 points out of the trade though.   Because you have less weeks where the premium player can give you that 40 extra ppg.

Now you can assume most players would have 15 games in them (2 injury, 1 bye, 18 rounds)

Trades then would be worth if made in:

Round 7, 15x40/2 = 300
Round 8, 14x40/2 = 280
Round 9 = 260
Round 10 = 240
Round 11 = 220
Round 12 = 200

Now if the top guys keep making their trades in the next few rounds - as they certainly SHOULD - then your chance of pulling in the gap diminishes (your 300 v 300 is countered, and your trade advantage is maintained only for diminishing returns)

So lets say the top guys burn to 18 trades used by Round 12.   Two a week until then.   After then, you might have the trade advantage of 4-5, but it would be worth around the 600 mark if used in the Round 13-18 period.    That is, of course, if trades are used to upgrade players rather than to cover byes.   (In that case - as most of the leaders are pushing this tack - I think these trades might only be worth 100 points until end of year max!)

Unfortunately thats not enough to pull my team into the lead, which is why a Selwood/Rioli injury needs to happen to players I dont hold.   Lets say Pavlich and Bartel get struck down for a 2 week injury.  Hard to trade around and hard to cover.   That would bring me back.    The injury to Higgins/Yarran is doing just that for a few teams also but being original mid-pricers its not doing as much damage as losing Selwood in particular.

So my team also needs a loss of form to the players I dont have.   For them to go from 120 players to 90 players for the rest of the year.   Likely?   Not necessarily that big a drop, but we have seen players drop off as a year progresses.   Pavlich and Bartel did so last year quite badly.

Thats what I have to pin my hopes on this year.    And hope that touchwood, Duckwood doesnt get injured again.

Hope that helps your team analysis, and lets see if I can do a Best Buys sometime tonight!