Hi all,

Its time for another installment of Best Buys, but this time with a Best Sells column because of course we all want a bargain.

We have received a post from a regular reader, who I will call Josh (not JoshyC), but Im not certain of his normal moniker on the site.  If hes a "long time listener first time caller", get yourself an ID and join the discussions either here or in the forums.   Otherwise, identify yourself to the masses!

Im going to give him space on the Best Buys because hes written a good article in its own right, but then Ill add my personal thoughts.  It should give a good broad structure to the report.   Josh has written more on the players who will make you money at the bottom end of the scale, so I will also look at a few who might be on a train you need to catch now.  Ive left the analysis mainly to sub-premiums because I doubt too many would be able to make a quick trade into a great player without destroying their team/future trade structure.

Finally, yep its a chance to dump those players who are terminal.  Ive done some analysis on the future prices given either current average or predicted average (including my thoughts on past form, NAB Cup and where they are likely to land in future), which is tasty.   And yes, its over the break.   Its worth reading over coffee or lunch today, or when youre doing your trades tomorrow.   Keep coming back because Im sure that comments on trade options will be updated on by the regular readers here.

<!--more-->

OK, now for Joshs article - Ill take the money Ed:

The days of playing Monopoly with paper notes, seem to have passed now. For people like my sister who used to ‘politely’ volunteer to be the banker, just to start a sneaky few hundred dollars up on the competition, these days are sorely missed. However the first price rise of the Supercoach season in Round 3 gives people everywhere, including my sister, the opportunity to get ahead of the pack once more.

Trades are a vital in Supercoach and as seasoned fantasy fans will know, round 3 is the most important round of trading for the year. The seasons first price rises give everyone a chance to ditch the duds and grab the cash cows that will help you to upgrade to the superstars you need by years end. Playing the cash cow game right, can make or break your season. The thousand’s of dollars you can add to your team now, may be the difference between having Dane Swan and Shaun Grigg. So straight from the milking shed we give you Farmer Brown’s Top 5 cash cows, a must read if [span style="text-decoration: underline">YOU want to be a fantasy millionaire:
<ul>
,<li>Ed Curnow – Top of the list for a reason, Curnow has been an absolute revelation since making the transition from Box Hill to Visy Park. A top 3 finisher in the Liston trophy after missing the last eight games of the season in 2010, his first two rounds of 118 and 112 has him scoring higher than his Carlton captain. If you want to be a millionaire and haven’t already got the man, grab Ed with both hands [span style="text-decoration: underline">NOW!! Expected round 3 price rise (based on current average): approx. $109,200 – $119, 556</li>
,<li>Tom Liberatore – After being left in the shadow of fellow father-son pick Mitch Wallis following the draft, Liberatore has had a phenomenal pre-season and first two rounds which see him averaging a flat 100. He has had the early speed over fellow dog Wallis and has been heavily praised by coach Eade for his ability to win his own footy. He’s looking set for plenty of game time in 2011 and at only $103,600, as a member of a quality team, he is a must have. Expected round 3 price rise: approx. $92,300 - $101, 064</li>
,<li>Luke Tapscott – At $110, 200, the first two performances of Melbourne’s Luke Tapscott have not only set tongues wagging amongst the Dees faithful, but have excited many in fantasy circles. Available as a forward in Supercoach, scores of 113 and 91 have him sure to sky rocket in price at the completion of round 3. A great alternative to the midfielders who are a plenty. Expected round 3 price rise: approx. $93,000 - $101,765</li>
,<li>Dyson Heppell – The round one Rising Star nominee didn’t have a super pre-season score wise, but like any real professional, has turned it on now the real stuff has started. Taken at number 8 in last years draft, Heppell was one who was sure to figure early and with scores of 90 and 81 he has been one of the many positives for the bombers so far. A duel position player who is available as both an on-baller and defender. Loved by his coach, he is sure to receive plenty of game time throughout the remainder of the season. Expected round 3 price rise: approx. $62,100 - $67,682</li>
,<li>Jack Darling – The all time Supercoach score record holder (308 in a state under 16’s game) was the Eagles first pick has been given plenty of opportunity in the first two rounds. Scores 80 and 70 have him averaging much higher than more heavily touted team-mate Andrew Gaff. Available only as a forward, Darling seems to be set for regular games and to be a consistent scorer. He is one to definitely consider. Expected round 3 price rise: approx. $62,400 - $68,251</li>
</ul>


BEST OF THE REST:
<ul>
,<li>Nick Lower (PTA) – Def: 59 &amp; 83, $54,100 - $66,501 </li>
,<li>Shane Savage (HAW) – Mid: 75 &amp; 71, $54,300 - $63,703 </li>
,<li>Jasper Pittard (PTA) – Mid: 58 &amp; 85, $56,700 - $61,953</li>
,<li>Nick Duigan (CAR) – Def: 59 &amp; 78, $54,800 - $59,501</li>
,<li>Simon Buckley (COL) – Def/Mid: 44 &amp; 79, $48,000 </li>
,<li>Jarrad Irons (PTA) – Mid: 68 &amp; 47, $44,800 - $48,968</li>
,<li>Cameron O’Shea (PTA) – Def: 69 &amp; 45, $40,900 - $44,626</li>
,<li>Lukas Markovic (WBD) – Def/Fwd: 56 &amp; 53, $36,500 - $39,203</li>
,<li>Ryan Lester (BRI) – Def: 65 &amp; 40, $35,800 - $38,501</li>
</ul>
As we’ve said, the first price rise of the season is a huge opportunity for serious supercoaches, so using both your allowed trades for the round is not to be discouraged. However, it should be noted that with the Gold Coast and Adelaide only having played one match so far you may want to use two trades next week to grab a Smith, Toy, McKernan or the like, just before their prices rise. So it is up to you how you use your trades. It is a tough situation, but it is these conundrums that separate the men from the boys.

Hopefully this has given you some insight into who will suit your team best. Good luck to all in milking your cash cows and scoring well this weekend.

---

Lucas thoughts on Curnow v Liberatore:

Curnow is good, but has been helped by a relatively soft start (GC) and a great last term vs Richmond in a comeback win.  Im not convinced he will get his price much over 320k in predicted pricing.  With the late bye for Carlton, the value of him off the bench will be peace of mind in the Round 4-6 triple period.  Particularly round 5 where the Blues are at home to Adelaide.  Still thinking youd be wanting to trade him by Round 8, because having Duigan, Gibbs, Judd and Curnow in the bench could be too much to carry.

Liberatore has started well, but has less job security than Curnow, and a bye in Round 4 followed by interstate trip then Collingwood in Round 5-6.  The GC score will be welcome this week, but again, 300-350k might be his peak.

So, would you go for them?  If you have Atley or Bewick, and they keep getting games and push the 60ppg mark, they will move to about 250k by the time the trading period comes around.  So youre trading to probably make (in the end) a 100-120k profit.   For those who dont trade other than for a 200k profit thats food for thought.   Libba and Curnow will provide extra coverage, and peace of mind (so long as they keep getting a game), and they also represent money in the bank from their past games, which could allow an earlier trade than first forecast.

My view - given I have Harris and Swallow rotating on the ground for until round 9, I probably dont need cover, so Bewick will more than likely get a reprieve unless dumped this week.

However I have Hibberd, and a non playing zero, even with MPP is like a rotating donut as expressed in the forums.   So yeah Hibberd needs to go.   As any non playing rookie (or even midpricer) needs to be flicked this week.

The other thing I would say is neither of Curnow or Liberatore, in my view, are as important to have in your side as Tapscott or Heppell.

Finally, on the second list, Id add Stefan Martin at least to the mix.  If youre looking for a POD defensive rookie, hes your man.  He appears to be playing backup ruck roaming for Melbourne, which gives him reasonable security youd think.   Pretty decent draw to come for the Dees.  But who knows the mind of cornered Bailey now?

Lucas Best Buys - Midpricers:

On Current Average and looking ahead to Round 12 prices (when you probably want to be cashing in by):

DEF: Nicoski, Williams, Suban, Otten
FWD: Dawes, Hardingham, Dangerfield, Kennedy, Knights
MID: Shuey, Ward, Cotchin, Griffin
RUC: Cox, Warnock, McEvoy, Ottens, Petrie

On Predicted Average, well there are some slight differences:

DEF: Williams, Otten, Nicoski, Adcock, Suban, Laidler
FWD:  Hardingham, Knights, Yarran, Dawes, Walker
MID: Kerr,  Ward, Shuey, Rich, Cotchin
RUC: Warnock, Petrie, McEvoy, Hale, Cox

To be honest, in both of these lists, the only players I would think about getting in is Cox.   Dawes you might lose a bit of money if he becomes a premium, but by then you can always use an upgrade to get him, given hed then be in the top 10 forwards.  Id be prepared to wait it out on him, see how he goes against reasonable opponents.

Lucas Best Sells:

Players I believe are terminal, on both current and predicted averages:

DEF: Lovett-Murray, Harbrow, Gilbert, Gram and a question mark on Hurn.  On current average, Id add N.Krakouer and Everitt to this list.
MID:  I dont see anyone as terminal on both, maybe Steele Sidebottom.  On current average, Foley, Kennedy, Rockliff, Boak add to the list.   (I believe there are significant reasons why all can improve though, thats why the predicted average hurts them less)
FWD: Morton, J Riewoldt, Hall - Jack is an interesting one, even on predicted average tipped to fall a bit too much for my liking.   On current average, youd have to include Cloke and Jurrah.
RUC: Jolly is the only terminal ruck.  The obvious out trade is Cox.  If money is an issue, you could grab 100k on Warnock, and hope the Carlton giant isnt really affected when Kreuzer returns, but thats a little risky for mine.

My preference for these guys is to upgrade.  If you need to downgrade, consider a best buy sideways option instead of going direct to a rookie.   This should keep your midprice structure going.

Sorry its so long, but there has been so much to get through this week.  Until next time, happy trading.