Good morning all, and cheers on this fine Anzac day.

This week is a bit different to most, as Im sure you have all gathered, as due to Anzac day we are starting the partial lock-out today at the start of the Anzac game. This means that Collingwood and Essendon players will not be accessible after the start of the game today, and that any trades made this week will NOT be reversible after then. With Gazza out and the rest of the teams unknown, it presents a bit of a challenge for SCers as many will be looking at Pies and Bombers as a replacement for the Little Master. Personally as I am now out of the running for overall Ill be keeping Gaz, and would love it if everyone else traded him out. Who knows though, it could well be a masterstroke.

Gazza to Swannie is my pick of the bunch based on the numbers this week, but there are quite a few good options around for those willing to put in a bit of research. Join me for this and the rest of the Best Buys, over the break.

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The Best Buys uses a mix of price, form, break-evens and projected salaries to assess the Best Buys of each round. These are essentially the players that represent the best “value” which is determined by the above factors. Some player will not be mentioned on here even if they are playing well, as value is the key for this article. If a player is averaging 110, which is certainly solid, but priced at an average of 112 then they will not be rated. This does not mean these players should be avoided or not picked due to this, but simply that they aren’t as good “value” as the others in the Best Buys. For all the player I’ve missed, and any more you’re wanting opinions on, the thumbs are always there.

The thumbs act as a polling tool for the TS community, if you pose a question with either a yes-no answer or a “thumbs-up X, thumbs down Y” in there then the community as a whole can give you some great feedback into your choices and what they think about it, while also catering to the lazy amongst them that can’t be bothered actually typing out a response.

The “Waiting List” section at the end of the article shows players who are looking like being great buys but for whatever reason will be better looked at in the coming weeks rather than this one. In the case of the first few names on the list this is because they have only played one game (indicated by the * next to their single game score) and you will have one more week to assess them, having only played one match they do not have a salary prediction either, for the others on the list it is usually because they will be decreasing in value this round based on current predictions and could be picked up cheaper the next week. Some players on the Waiting List will not make the next Best Buys, due to only a small decrease in price etc, and so it is something you should keep an eye on regularly. The Waiting List also includes a projected salary drop over the next round for each player.

Now, onto the Best Buys.

DEFENSE
ROOKIES

Tom Gillies (GEE) DEF 176.2k
Tom Gillies has come in for the Cats for the last 2 games and averaged 62 over them. He is a higher priced rookie but there aren’t many other options around to choose from at the moment. His job security will be an issue but Geelong will surely keep rotating their squad like last year. Would be a slow burner but on current average should go up over 30 grand after his next game.

MID-PRICERS

Michael Johnson (FRE) D/F 437.2k
MJ has been impressive so far, averaging a nice 98 and has the additional benefit of being an MPP (Multi-Position Player) in defense and up forward. A lot of people have Smedts or Paine, or both, and Johnson could prove a useful link-man to have. His break-even is sitting at around 60 so another good game should see him rise by nearly 20 grand.

Scott Thompson (NM) DEF 449.2k
Young Scotty has gone well since his debut for the Roos and this year he looks to have stepped up that level again. Averaging 96 so far he could end up as a premium top-ten defender this year and is a great POD. The Kangas have a decent run this year and Scott looks like he could benefit.

Michael Hibberd (ESS) DEF 429.5k
Hibberd is still performing well, averaging 96 points and steadily increasing in price. With the way the Essendon midfield are currently going, and with Heppell in front of him as well, it is quite unlikely he will draw a tag and he has the confidence to run out of the backline. No signs of second year blues and could be an astute pick.

Paul Duffield (FRE) DEF 431.4k
“Duffman” has so far played the role many of us were hoping that Broughton would fill while in the back-line, running off half-back and getting a few rebound 50s and generally racking up some solid numbers. Of course you can’t trust Ross though and for that reason many will avoid, but the Duffman could be good value this season for those without trust issues.

Josh Drummond (BRI) DEF 369.4k
Drummond has been a solid player in a depleted and often defeated backline. Averaging 92 points he would probably need to step up his output a bit more to come in as a top ten defender at end of year but his price tag certainly helps bring him into consideration. Again a definite POD.

PREMIUMS

Heath Scotland (CAR) D/M 545.5k
After a slow start to the year Scotland now looks to be hitting his straps, averaging 120 over his last 2 games after only 84 in the first 2 of the year. His price has dropped a bit as a result of the poor early games and for under 550 grand he should be a solid performer for most of the year.

MIDFIELD
ROOKIES

James McDonald (GWS) MID 106.6k
JMac is returning from a brief holiday from his big hit off the line in round 1, and this has meant that he hasn’t yet had his first price rise. Averaging 89 and with a break-even of over -1000 he should be a great cash cow if he can stay on the park. For those after the sneaks early upgrade JMac could be the perfect downgrade option.

MID-PRICERS

Luke Parker (SYD) MID 351.5k
“Spiderman” has been good so far, after a sub affected first round and an impressive fourth round he is sitting at an average of 88 overall. Priced at around 350k and getting good time in the first four games mean that Spidey is looking to be a decent mid-priced option. Definite POD but from here would probably need to average 100+ to make it worth trading him in.

Jack Ziebell (NM) MID 428.5k
Ziebull is on the bubble this round after missing some early games, and averaging a solid 115 over his two games mean he should get a decent price rise. North have been one of the off-season improvers this year and Ziebull could see the benefits. A hard in-and-under midfielder Jack has all the requirements to become a SC gun.

Shaun Grigg (RIC) MID 489.9k
Grigg has surprised many since his move to the Tigers, improving at a good rate and currently averaging 107 in the early going of 2012. Overlooked by many for the Tigers more established up and coming players Grigg generally won’t get the tag but should still benefit from the improving players around him.

PREMIUMS

Brent Stanton (ESS) MID 591.2k
Stanton has continued on with his massive early form, and is still the second highest averaging player is SC at the moment sitting on 142 from the early rounds. Bombers fans everywhere are feeling worse by the game over the infamous booing, and Stanton is really looking the goods for a huge break-out year this year. The way he’s been going he will not drop below 600k again this season so if you want him in, do it now.

Scott Selwood (WCE) MID 543k
Scooter just keeps on racking them up, scoring 94 in the last round against Hawthorn and proving that even against the tough teams he’s still got what it takes to score well. Sitting at 5th overall in the SC rankings with an average of 124 Scooter has been an impressive pick for those who took the risk.

Josh P Kennedy (SYD) MID 563.1k
JPK sits tied with Scooter for 5th highest SC scorer this year to date, averaging 124, and is looking like a great pick-up. His size and strength in close have caused problems for taggers and the contested nature of his play mean he will continue to score well if uninjured.

Callan Ward (GWS) MID 538.7k
Ward is still proving that being the key midfielder in an expansion team can be a lucrative position in SC, averaging 121 in a generally poor GWS team. Ward will be tagged more than any other Giant one would think, but the teams reliance on him mean he should still be able to score well. Could be a good risk to take at under 550k.

Dane Swan (COL) MID 596.9k
Swannie has started slowly this year, averaging 106 in the first 4 games after a couple of quiet ones early. As such his price has taken a decent hit and he can now be picked up for under 600k. For the people looking to trade out the Little Master, Swan could be a great trade-in and incredibly would make 100k on the deal. For the risk takers it is definitely one to consider, as surely this kind of opportunity won’t come up again.

RUCK
MID-PRICERS

Ben Hudson (BRI) RUC 458.5k
Leuey’s injury seems to have benefitted Hudson more than Longer thus far, with Hudson averaging 95 over his 3 games this season. As the likely R1 with Longer to play back-up while Leuey is out Hudson should have at least a few weeks to prove himself, and will more than likely be used to ease Leuey back into things on his return. Quite a risky pick but a huge POD.

Hamish McIntosh (NM) RUC 432.3k
HMac has continued on his early form, and more importantly has been smashing Goldy’s scores on a weekly basis. The ruck-sharing seems to have hurt Goldy’s numbers pretty badly so far, and Scott may start to experiment with the roles a bit more to try and help Goldy to influence the game but until that happens HMac will continue to rack up solid numbers. Still priced at under 450k HMac is a solid option to consider.

PREMIUMS

Patrick Ryder (ESS) RUC 531.3k
Ryder is well on his way to a break-out season this year, still averaging over 120 and priced at around a 100 average he is also still good value. Questions will remain about his ability to perform consistently after burning many SC coaches in the past, but most would prefer to take the 120’s until those questions are truly answered.

Nic Naitanui (WCE) RUC 517.3k
NicNat continues his rise to prominence this year, so far taking over the majority of the ruckwork from big Coxy and increasing his average to 106 in the process. Woosha will more than likely use Cox in the ruck more against stronger opposition, and let NicNat learn his trade against the lesser teams, but both should still see good time on ground. The way it’s looking out West, I’d pick NicNat to be the number 1 ruck at the Eagles by next season.

FORWARD
ROOKIES

Adam Treloar (GWS) M/F 113.2k
Talked up pre-season many were disappointed when Treloar didn’t get a run early, but now he has a couple of games under his belt it’s easy to see what the hype was about. MPP status and an average of 73 with a break-even of -77 mean Treloar is another great downgrade option early on, and better yet available in the forward line.

George Horlin-Smith (GEE) FWD 113.2k
Horlin-Smith is looking like another tasty downgrade option, whilst he has only averaged 30 over his first 2 games he was sub-affected in both with the green vest in the first and the red in the second. This is a god sign for the young forward as his TOG (Time On Ground) is increasing and when/if he gets some full games he could be a great cash cow option.

MID-PRICERS

Luke Dahlhaus (WBD) FWD 425.5k
Dahlhaus has been a great pick-up by the dogs, after impressing late last year in his debut season he has continued on with his good form and is averaging 109 over 2012 so far. The Dogs have been struggling to find some solid forward options and Dahlhaus and his hard aggressive style have been a welcome addition. Swinging into the midfield for stints Dahlhaus is a great smokie and if the Dogs continue to use him this way he could well end up being in the leading forwards this season.

Steele Sidebottom (COL) M/F 475.9k
Sidey was a great trade-in for Fyfe, and with injuries to a few of the Pies midfielders he should see more opportunities to impress over the next few rounds. M/F eligibility certainly helps his cause and he could prove a valuable swing-man. Averaging 99 he is priced about right on current numbers but with the added responsibilities and associated points increase he represents some good value.

Kurt Tippett (ADE) FWD 474.6k
As much as I hate putting Spud Tippett anywhere near the best buys, his form this year really has been something special. Touted as being the next big thing in AFL some years ago Spud may finally be starting to produce the points that have been long expected from him. Averaging 122 he is the highest averaging forward this season to date, and has been a great pick-up for those who took the risk, also being under 500k currently means on his average he is almost 100k under-priced.

Alwyn Davey (ESS) FWD 305.7k
Davey missed the early games this year but on his return has been impressive, averaging 84 points and looking dangerous up forward. Priced at around 300k people looking for a good risk/reward candidate could almost manage a straight swap to Davey from some of the better performing cash-cows so far. Essendons good form is likely affecting his scores but there’s nothing so far to say that this form can’t continue. Deinite smokie choice.

PREMIUMS

Stewart Crameri (ESS) FWD 507.4k
Crameri is another young played to benefit from the Bombers good early form, averaging 113 and not in many teams so far being overlooked by many for Zaharakis. Priced at 500k he is only slightly undervalued but this form, if continued, should see him comfortably in the leading forwards by the years end.

Jordan Lewis (HAW) M/F 516.9k
A few people questioned Lewis not being a Best Buy until now, and looking back possibly for good reason. His average of 105 early on has been promising and his MPP status certainly helps his cause, with the Hawks form not really hurting it either. If he continues to get the midfield time he has thus far then he could be a bargain pick-up and a decent POD.

Lance Franklin (HAW) FWD 564.9k
Buddy has been his usual self this season, scoring huge numbers when he goes big and having some pretty quiet games otherwise. This has seen him drop around 35 grand in price and he looks to be a bargain for those who started the year without him. Buddy’s quiet games hurt, but nowhere near as much as his 140s hurt those without him.

WAITING LIST
David Mundy (FRE) MID 580.5k 74 -58k
Steve Johnson (GEE) FWD 455.5k 63 -39k
Ryan OKeefe (SYD) M/F 486k 59 -36k
Brent Harvey (NM) M/F 528.9k 95 -33k
Scott Pendlebury (COL) MID 632.7k 122 -30k
Dean Cox (WCE) RUC 578k 99 -25k
Paul Chapman (GEE) M/F 504.3k 93 -24k
Anthony Miles (GWS) MID 113.2k 74*

Alright, thats it from me for another week, good luck to all and hopefully the Best Buys have given you some good options to consider. All feedback is appreciated and if theres something Ive missed or messed up, feel free to let me know.

Enjoy the game, and raise a glass to those that fought for our freedom. Ill see you all in the comments.