Best Buys: Back to Basics

Discussion in 'Blog' started by demam_05, Jun 27, 2012.

By demam_05 on Jun 27, 2012 at 10:00 AM
  1. demam_05

    demam_05 New Member

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    Good morning all, and welcome to the Best Buys.

    Today we have a slightly expanded Best buys, as now that the bye rounds are over I thought it might be good to have a bit of a wrap-up on what’s changed. The byes were hell to deal with, for most SCers, and it must now feel strange for a lot of people to be fielding full squads again without having to wonder how many donuts they will cop this week.

    Back to Basics is the name of the Best Buys article as this week, without bye rounds to worry about for the rest of the season, it really is back to basics for many of us. Who will average more over the rest of the year? Will the tough draw hurt? Who’s the best value defender for under 500 grand? Normal SC questions that seem like they were important far too long ago now come back with a bang and take the forefront of most coaches planning, and could well decide this years winner. Some careful planning will be required, and a whole swag of luck, but with the byes out of the way, the home stretch is at least in sight.

    My tip of the week this week is Scott Thompson. The Crow champion is at a shockingly low price, and in a top 4 team with a great run home. Hard to pass up really. This week I’ve been pretty busy and with the larger Best Buys I haven’t really had time for much on my pick, suffice to say the usual spiel on him is over the break with the rest of the Best Buys.

    I hope you can join me!

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    INFO

    The Best Buys uses a mix of price, form, break-evens and projected salaries to assess the Best Buys of each round. These are essentially the players that represent the best “value” which is determined by the above factors. Some player will not be mentioned on here even if they are playing well, as value is the key for this article. If a player is averaging 110, which is certainly solid, but priced at an average of 112 then they will not be rated. This does not mean these players should be avoided or not picked due to this, but simply that they aren’t as good “value” as the others in the Best Buys. For all the player I’ve missed, and any more you’re wanting opinions on, the thumbs are always there.

    The thumbs act as a polling tool for the TS community, if you pose a question with either a yes-no answer or a “thumbs-up X, thumbs down Y” in there then the community as a whole can give you some great feedback into your choices and what they think about it, while also catering to the lazy amongst them that can’t be bothered actually typing out a response.

    The “Waiting List” section at the end of the article shows players who are looking like being great buys but for whatever reason will be better looked at in the coming weeks rather than this one. In the case of the first few names on the list this is because they have only played one game (indicated by the * next to their single game score) and you will have one more week to assess them, having only played one match they do not have a salary prediction either, for the others on the list it is usually because they will be decreasing in value this round based on current predictions and could be picked up cheaper the next week. Some players on the Waiting List will not make the next Best Buys, due to only a small decrease in price etc, and so it is something you should keep an eye on regularly. The Waiting List also includes a projected salary drop over the next round for each player.

    DEFENSE
    ROOKIES
    Mark Whiley (GWS) DEF 113.2k

    Whiley has snuck onto the scene this year without much hype at all, and after his first 2 games is now on the bubble. An average of 26 really isn’t particularly promising but as Sheeds continues to rest his young stars hopefully it is at least an indication that he should get some more games. Not a great option but there are very few downgrades around.

    MID-PRICERS
    Jed Adcock (BRI) DEF 470.8k

    Adcock has been a bit off the pace this year, with an average to date of 92, but his dirt cheap price and POD nature will see him considered b more than a few SC coaches. Has the ability to go big but can be quite inconsistent.

    Pearce Hanley (BRI) DEF 422.9k
    Hanley has made a welcome return to form with a big score over the weekend, but is still suffering from an average of just 89 for the season. In contention for a defensive spot with Adcock, both have potential but can certainly let their coaches down. One to consider, if a bit left-field.

    Heath Scotland (CAR) D/M 496.6k
    Scotland’s price has taken a bit of a pummelling recently, and he is now sitting below 500 grand. For one of the better SC defenders this has to be seen as a bargain and certainly one to consider. The Blues have had a poor run of late and will be looking to change that, but with a tough few games on the way they may continue to struggle for a bit.

    Nathan Grima (NM) DEF 483.6k
    Grima repaid his new coaches with a good score over the weekend, and has brought himself into contention for a few more SC teams. The Norths Thompson debacle has put a lot of coaches off their defenders, but Grima seems to be travelling nicely. Should be given a look but always keep in mind the nature of defensive SC scoring.

    Shannon Hurn (WCE) DEF 462.2k
    Hurn is another WC defender putting in some good games, averaging 95 for the year to date and priced at around 460 grand. A good pick-up for this price if he can keep his numbers up and will be behind Waters in a lot of SC coaches minds.

    MIDFIELD
    ROOKIES
    Sam Gibson (NM) MID 94.7k

    Gibson has started solidly for the Roos, without setting the world on fire. An average of 32 over his first 2 games sees him on the bubble, and a decent downgrade option when there are so few around. Many SCers will be hoping he can continue to get games and Norths solid win over the Crows on the weekend should hopefully bode well for that.

    MID-PRICERS
    Simon Black (BRI) MID 430.3k

    Black was playing some good footy before injury this year, and since his return he has shown he still has great touch. An excellent option for M7 for those with a few spare trades, his influence on the Lions team cannot be underestimated. Dirt cheap and a champion of the game.

    Scott Selwood (WCE) MID 498.9k
    Scooter has come back down to earth with a thud after his strong early season, and his price is now sitting under 500 grand. Still averaging a healthy 109 for the season he has been in poor form (by comparison) recently but has shown he has the talent to rack up the numbers. Again a good option for M7, for those with that luxury, Scooter will hopefully regain some of his early season numbers over the weeks ahead.

    PREMIUMS
    Scott Thompson (ADE) MID 529k

    Scotty T has had a big drop in price, to place him at around 530 grand. Bargain.
    The Crows easy run home and Scottys propensity to rack up big scores mean he should be strongly considered by all with a spare mid spot, and may well be the most traded in player this week.

    Tom Rockliff (BRI) MID 523.2k
    Rocky has been good this year, without being outstanding. A gun player he just needs to remain more consistent to take his spot amongst the SC elite. That inconsistency has seen his price drop to around 520 grand currently, but I wouldn’t expect it to remain there for long. Probably the Lions most important player, look for Rocky to lift as the Lions do.

    Dane Swan (COL) MID 627.8k
    Swannie has returned in good form, and has slowly been building his average to a very healthy 123. His scores show how inconsistent a year it has been in SC all around so far, averaging 16 ppg less than Gaz and priced about 20k cheaper. With Pendles still struggling to return from injury Swan will be the number 1 man at the Pies for another week or two yet.

    Gary Ablett Jnr (GCS) MID 649.6k
    The Little Master has proved his point about being needed at GC, and then made up or it with a monster score the week after. These two scores have now essentially evened each other out, and on averages Gaz should stay about even for this week. The undisputed number 1 SC player you’d be mad not to have him come finals.

    Joel Selwood (GEE) MID 594.9k
    Ducky has been good this season, averaging 123 to date, but so far hasn’t really stood out too much. The Cats will be desperate to have a strong finals showing and this could either help, or hurt, Duckys game-time, as Scott looks to have his players ripe and rested for September. Undoubtedly a gun, but at this stage of the season most players will have him, so has no real POD value.

    Sam Mitchell (HAW) MID 552.7k
    SMitch has been struggling this year in Hodgies absence, while still averaging 111 and playing some good footy he just hasn’t quite hit the heights most were hoping for pre-season. The Hawks team as an outfit have generally underperformed a bit, but there does seem to be a lot of that going around so not quite warning signs just yet. As cheap as you’d generally hope to get him SMitch may well be a POD come finals, SCers just need to remember the Clarko lesson from last year.

    Trent Cotchin (RIC) MID 533.3k
    Cotch will be desperate to ensure the Tiges don’t claim the vaunted 9th spot this season, and from their form to date they have a pretty decent chance of it. Career best seasons from some of the young stars have certainly helped, and Deledios move into the midfield more may help to draw some tags off of Cotch. Averaging 110 for the season and priced at a low 530 grand he is certainly one to look at.

    Nick Dal Santo (StK) MID 516.7k
    NDS has continued on his steady rise upward, now bringing his average for the year up to 107. He is still bargain basement priced at only a bit over 500 grand, and if he can continue on with his current form, or form from this time last year, will be a great pick-up for any.

    Matt Priddis (WCE) MID 522k
    Priddis is another midfielder to hit bargain prices, now sitting at just over 520 grand and with a decent average of 101. Priddis is generally Mr Consistent, and after a good game last weekend will get a look in by many. A great choice but will still probably not outscore the Gaz/Swan/Watsons.

    RUCK
    MID-PRICERS
    Sam Jacobs (ADE) RUC 467k

    Sauce has been a great addition to the Adelaide line-up, providing a solid marking option and a lot more versatility around the stoppages. Many consider him in AA form this season, although his SC average isn’t quite up to that mark. Averaging 96 for the season but priced at a low 470 odd grand he is an option for those looking for a cheap R2 but should also be compared with Clarke and Griffin.

    Zac Clarke (FRE) RUC 363k
    Jonothan Griffin (FRE) RUC 443.3k

    Clarke and Griffin I have put together, as right now they seem much of a muchness. With big 211 out for an extended period the Dockers will need a solid ruckman to step up, the only question is which one. Last year Griffin showed his potential and impressed a few in the big mans absence, but last weekend Clarke showed he may well have what it takes also. Both are risky propositions as you would think that only one will excel, and Ross Lyin may well have a say in which.

    PREMIUMS
    Ivan Maric (RIC) RUC 589.9k

    The Mullet continues to impress, averaging 114 for the season and dominating the ruckwork. If you don’t know more about him at this stage of the year then you probably haven’t been paying attention. A great pick-up and worthy R1.

    Paddy Ryder (ESS) RUC 522.3k
    Ryder has been great this season, whilst having a couple of poor games his good ones have far outweighed them and pushed his average up to a good 110. As the main ruck for the Bombers and a key target up forward he should be able to ensure he gets into the game consistently but Hird bringing in Hille and co may have an effect.

    Dean Cox (WCE) RUC 546.8k
    Nic Natainui (WCE) RUC 560.1k

    Another 2-for-1 special, Coxy and NicNat so far can’t really be separated. Both priced at around 550 grand and both averaging around 110 they are easily the dominant duo in the SC ruck landscape, but they do have a habit of affecting each others scoring. Eagles are going strongly and will look to continue this into the run home.

    FORWARD
    ROOKIES
    Jonathan Patton (GWS) FWD 196.6k

    The General has showed why he was the number 1 draft pick last season, in his first two games averaging 62 and bringing himself onto the bubble. His price as a number one draft pick will put a few coaches off but with the lack of real alternatives he could well make his way into many SC sides. Patton will certainly be one to watch next year.

    Nathan Wilson (GWS) FWD 136.1k
    Wilson has managed to sneak under the radar in the shadows of The General, and has so far barely gotten a mention. On the bubble this week with an average of 34, he may not be the best rookie going around but Pattons pricing may well encourage many to take the punt on Wilson.

    MID-PRICERS
    Kurt Tippett (ADE) FWD 457.6k
    Taylor Walker (ADE) FWD 485.1k

    Again with the groupings, I give you Tiprat and Tex. Tex is about 20 grand more, and averaging 2 ppg less, but both are very similar players. Solid marking forwards with a lot of potential, neither has quite delivered but Tiprat has a few years on Tex at this stage. As has been mentioned previously Adelaide have a great draw home, and will be looking to get some bags from their power forward duo. Either choices have merit, but both also have downsides.

    Travis Cloke (COL) FWD 430.4k
    Clokey is still in a bit of a form slump, bringing his average down to just 88, but taking his price with it. At just 430 grand he should certainly be considered as a player to take a punt on, and with the Pies coming back into their best form can be expected to pick up his game. A good pick, mainly due to pricing.

    Matt Pavlich (FRE) M/F 486.9k
    The Pav has been a bit off his game this year, which can hopefully be attributed to the change of coaching staff, and hasn’t really had the impact of years previous. A couple of big games this year has helped his average to 98 for the season, but his poor games have certainly taken their toll also. As the Dockers hope for a finals spot and the players get used to Lyins style of play we can hope his numbers will improve. A big risk but at under 500 grand he is dirt cheap for a champion.

    Jarrad Roughead (HAW) R/F 493.2k
    Roughy is still quietly going about his business, averaging 101 for the year and still priced under 500 grand. A very handy switch player for those with another R/F link-man, his ruck-work this season has definitely helped his numbers and kept him in some games. A bit of a left-field consideration, but one that may well pay off.

    PREMIUMS
    Steele Sidebottom (COL) M/F 572.4k

    Sidey and Beams look set to keep swapping places on the Best Buys for the rest of the year, with both having similar averages but varying prices due to recent form. This week sees Sidey at under 580 grand, and averaging 114 ppg, so he would seem to be the better option. Beams has been generating more attention of late and so sneaking Sidey into the squad when no-ones looking could be a masterstroke.

    Nick Reiwoldt (StK) FWD 523k
    NRoo has been a strange one this year, with a fairly poor start overall but an improvement on last years woeful form. Due to last season, one must assume, he has been overlooked by many but is now sitting on a very healthy 103 average with a 520 grand price tag and should be in consideration for teams needing a forward upgrade. Clearly still not the Roo of old, but getting closer to that each game it seems.

    WAITING LIST
    Tom Campbell (WBD) RUC 94.7k 89*
    Paddy Dangerfield (ADE) M/F 562.4k -20k
    Rory Sloane (ADE) MID 573.8k -16k
    Andrew Carrazzo (CAR) D/M 465.3k -24k
    Chris Yarran (CAR) D 251.9k -14k
    Scott Pendlebury (COL) MID 620.4k -18k
    Brent Stanton (ESS) MID 516.8k -11k
    Paul Chapman (GEE) M/F 562.6k -19k
    Brett Deledio (RIC) D/M 561.1k -11k
    Brendon Goddard (StK) D/M 498.8k -13k
    Adam Goodes (SYD) M/F 502.9k -35k
    Josh P Kennedy (SYD) MID 537.6k -13k
    Shane Mumford (SYD) RUC 458.9k -10k
    Matt Boyd (WBD) MID 542.6k -21k
    Beau Waters (WCE) DEF 524.4k -13k
     

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Discussion in 'Blog' started by demam_05, Jun 27, 2012.

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