Best Buys: Crunch Time

Discussion in 'Blog' started by Iain, Aug 12, 2015.

By Iain on Aug 12, 2015 at 10:00 AM
  1. Iain

    Iain Moderator Staff Member

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    So with the first round of SC finals for the year done and dusted many coaches will be looking to get an advantage over their opponents this week, but also a fair few likely to save trades after earning themselves a week off. This means that there is the potential for some big moves in overall rankings, as well as some surprise results for leagues. Crunch time in SC is well and truly upon us.

    That brings us to the Best Buy for this week, and a likely surprise for many, Joel Selwood. After a poor season in SC terms Ducky finally appears to be pulling it together, with some impressive scores over the last few rounds and Geelong mounting a big push for finals action. And yes I am aware that I used the Duckwood pun last season, but it's a good one and as is increasingly the case this year I'm fairly pressed for time.

    DEFENSE
    ROOKIES





    Matthew Scharenberg (COL) DEF 123.9k 40 +20k
    Scharenberg is finally on the bubble at Collingwood, after a series of injuries delayed the promising defender's debut. An average of 40 from his first 2 games will give him an expected price rise of around 20 grand after his next match, but really any prospective coaches will just be looking for him to stay on the field over the remaining rounds.



    MID-PRICERS





    Bachar Houli (RIC) DEF 438.8k 96 14.3%

    Houli, like a lot of defenders this season, has been fairly inconsistent of late. A score of 103 against the Crows has pushed his average back to 96 for the season and he will likely be around 14 grand more expensive next week. The Tigers have one of the better draws through SC finals this year, and Houli should be able to keep his scores around the 100 mark if Richmond can continue to perform.



    Tom McDonald (MEL) DEF 410.1k 95 22.7%
    McDonald has also been very up and down this year, starting the season on fire before dropping off significantly and now jumping between good and poor scores. A price of 410 grand is good value for a player averaging 95 however, and at this stage of the season any extra points over your opposition will be very valuable.



    PREMIUMS





    Liam Picken (WBD) DEF 525.2k 101 8.3%

    Picken is still performing solidly for his sides, averaging 101 for the season and sitting in just over 8% of teams. With a price of 525 grand he is slightly overpriced for his stats, but with the value of defenders increasing this season he is still a worthy consideration. The Dogs will be pushing hard in an attempt to make the top 4, and Pickens ball-winning ability will be a key if they are to succeed.



    Shaun Higgins (NM) D/F 528.9k 98 18.6%

    Higgins performed well again on the weekend, scoring 145 SC points and becoming the joint leading goal scorer for North this year. Priced at just under 530 grand and with D/F eligibility he looks good value for a swingman, and is still in under 20% of teams.





    Dylan Roberton (StK) DEF 535.4k 95 3.7%
    Roberton continues to surprise, averaging 95 for the season but sitting in under 4% of teams. His price is on the high side, and is expected to drop by around 17 grand after his next game, but at this stage of the season the majority of trades will be all-or-nothing type propositions.



    REGULARS





    Heath Shaw (GWS) DEF 617.1k 111 33.9%

    MIDFIELD
    ROOKIES





    Lachlan Weller (FRE) MID 162.3k 23 -12k
    Weller is on the bubble for Freo this week, but with an average of 23 from his first 2 games and an expected price drop of 12 grand he doesn't appear to be much value. A price of over 160 grand doesn't help either, and the vast majority of teams won't give him a second look this year.



    MID-PRICERS





    Daniel Hannebery (SYD) MID 541.5k 115 22.7%

    Hanners continued on with the Best Buys curse, only managing 90 points on the weekend after being named our Best Buy. Still, he is priced at under 550 grand and his average is a healthy 115. With around 23% of the competition now fielding him he is a good pick for the finals, and can hopefully return to scoring 130+.



    Leigh Montagna (StK) MID 519.3k 112 2.8%

    Montagna is going very well for the under 3% of teams that have picked him, pumping out 143 on the weekend to take his average up to 112 for the year. A cheap price of around 520 grand is great value, especially when combined with his selection numbers, and he is an excellent POD pick.



    David Armitage (StK) MID 493.7k 109 8.7%

    Armitage has been a bit inconsistent recently, but still looks like great value. Priced at under 500 grand and averaging just shy of 110 he would be good value normally let alone when he is in under 9% of teams. After a break-out season this year he should be on plenty of radars for next season, and a fair few for the coming weeks.



    Sam Mitchell (HAW) MID 546.2k 109 10.7%
    Mitchell has been quietly performing pretty much all season, averaging 109 to date and sitting in just over 10% of squads. A price of just under 550 grand is decent value for his numbers, and Hawthorn are pushing for a top 2 spot meaning large-scale restings are moderately less likely.

    Tom Rockliff (BRI) MID 496.3k 88 18.6%
    Rocky has been all over the shop this season, generally playing well when not injured but posting up some poor scores and plenty of missed games when he was. In his last 5 games he has scored 126, 101, 50 (when named Best Buy), 135 and 115, showing that he can still score well but the risk is also considerable. A season's average of 88 means his price is now sitting at under 500 grand, and with around 19% of teams picking him he has some POD value if he can stay on the park and actually get the ball. A game against a poor Carlton side this week should give him the opportunity to post some good numbers.



    PREMIUMS





    Patrick Dangerfield (ADE) MID 621.9k 120 34.4%

    Dangerfield appears to be pulling out all the stops over the tail end of the season, scoring 152 points against the Tigers to take his average up to 120 for the year. A price of 620 grand is a little bit overs for those stats, but his recent form more than makes up for it. Still sitting in around 35% of teams he isn't much of a POD but that really shouldn't matter now.



    Matt Priddis (WCE) MID 596.2k 115 24.3%

    Priddis looks to be a Brownlow contender once again this season, racking up better stats then last year when he took Charlie home and posting good SC numbers to boot. A price of just under 600 grand is a bit high for his average of 115, but his reliability is a key strength. Just under 25% of teams now field the contested ball specialist, and a fair few more will likely jump on over the coming rounds.



    Joel Selwood (GEE) MID 600.4k 106 22.7%

    The Best Buy this week, and a big surprise looking at his previous numbers this season, Selwood has been in ripping form over the last 3 weeks. After only topping the 100 mark 4 times prior to the bye he has now gone 140+ in his last 3 games with a high score of 171. Priced at 600 grand he is massively overpriced for an average of 106, but if he can keep pumping out these types of scores he can still make a big difference to your team.



    Josh Caddy (GEE) MID 564.8k 98 1.8%
    Another Geelong player to be hitting the high scores in recent weeks is Josh Caddy. While his average for the season of 98 isn't that impressive his last 4 games have read 171, 96, 140 and 121. A big POD in under 2% of teams he has the potential to maintain this form, and even at a price of 565 grand has a good risk vs reward ratio.



    REGULARS





    Nathan Fyfe (FRE) MID 562.5k 125 51.9%

    Scott Pendlebury (COL) MID 572.9k 116 46.9%

    RUCK
    ROOKIES





    Andrew Phillips (GWS) RUC 210.7k 53 +14k
    Phillips has struggled so far at GWS, not getting regular games and failing to stand out from the crowd when he has played. A score of 72 on the weekend shows some better signs though, and brought his average to 53 from his 2 games this season. A high price of 210 grand isn't great for a rookie, but he could still offer some decent support for those still concerned about their ruckmen.



    PREMIUMS





    Stefan Martin (BRI) RUC 549.3k 109 5.5%

    Martin has been in good form lately, as evidenced by his average of 109 for the season to date. A price of 550 grand is right on the money for his stats, and as he's still only in 5.5% of teams he has good POD value. Coming up against Kreuzer and possibly Wood this weekend he will have every opportunity to go large, and should do so.



    Sam Jacobs (ADE) RUC 569.2k 106 13.5%

    Sauce Jacobs put in a blinder on Friday night, scoring 156 points against Maric and the Tigers. This has raised his season's average up to 106, and his price to 570 grand. While he is overpriced for these numbers he always has the potential to score well, and with a selection rate of 13.5% still has some POD value to offer.



    Aaron Sandilands (FRE) RUC 556.7k 102 8.9%
    Sandi has been a bit off this season, when compared to his efforts last year anyway, but is still able to pump out a big score. He proved this with a 140 on the weekend against the Saints, and will be looking to back it up with another big effort against the Naitanui-less Eagles. A price of 556 grand is overs for his average of 102, but with under 9% of teams fielding him and a good run through finals he could still be an astute choice.



    REGULARS





    Todd Goldstein (NM) RUC 761.9k 131 40.4%

    FORWARD
    ROOKIES





    Jonathan Freeman (BRI) FWD 173.3k 26 -11k
    Freeman has shown some good signs at the top level, but so far this season has failed to back them up. A score of 18 in his second game for the year has dropped his average to 26, and he is facing an expected price drop of 11 grand. A young player with plenty of potential, he appears to need a bit more time before becoming fantasy relevant.



    MID-PRICERS





    Brendon Goddard (ESS) M/F 489.6k 97 21.4%
    BJ has been up and down this season, but seems to back in some good form now. A score of 119 against the Giants has moved his average to 97 for the season so far, and his price of 490 grand is where it should be for those numbers. Around 21% of teams are backing in the veteran, and he still has the ability to score well against any opposition.



    PREMIUMS





    Harley Bennell (GCS) M/F 574.9k 105 7.4%

    Bennell came down to earth a bit last round, only managing 93 after some big scores previously. With the scandal surrounding him it will be hard to predict how he will perform in any given week, but he does have the potential to go large on occasion. A price of 575 grand is considerably over the mark for his average of 105, but with 7.4% of teams playing the young Sun he has some reasonable POD value.



    Luke Dahlhaus (WBD) FWD 518.1k 103 12.4%

    Dahlhaus has relished his move into the midfield this season, averaging 103 for the year and playing some excellent footy. A price of 518 grand is decent value for his numbers so far and a selection rate of around 12% is good, but a few more teams will be expected to pick him up over the remaining rounds.



    Marcus Bontempelli (WBD) M/F 500.9k 98 41.8%

    The Bont hasn't quite lived up to the pre-season expectations placed upon him this season, but an average of 98 is hardly poor all the same. A score of 116 on the weekend means he will be facing a likely price rise of around 15 grand after his next game, and with almost 42% of teams fielding him he is a fairly safe bet at this stage.



    Dayne Zorko (BRI) M/F 530.9k 96 7.8%
    Zorko had another good game on the weekend, scoring himself 134 points to take his average to 96. With a price of 530 grand and a selection rate of under 8% he is decent value for those looking for a risky POD, and he should have every opportunity to go large again this weekend against Carlton.



    REGULARS





    Robbie Gray (PTA) M/F 516.6k 109 55.7%

    Dustin Martin (RIC) M/F 505.3k 106 48.6%

    Dane Swan (COL) M/F 559.9k 106 58.8%

    That's all from the Best Buys here once again, so as always good luck for the upcoming round and join us in the comments section for all your trade talks and polls.
     

Comments

Discussion in 'Blog' started by Iain, Aug 12, 2015.

    1. TheTassieHawk
      TheTassieHawk
      nice work bb

      it seems like their are a lot of bargains around for those with trades in hand and this time of the year you can sometimes take a risk with players you may not be prepared to make at the start of the year

      these are the next 3 games for 16 of the 18 sides

      ADEL ess bl wce
      BRIS carl adel haw
      CARL bris melb gws
      COLL syd rich geel
      ESS adel gcs rich
      FRE wce nm melb
      GEEL haw stk coll
      GCS rich ess pa
      GWS port syd carl
      HAW geel pa bl
      PORT gws haw carl
      RICH gcs coll ess
      SYD coll gws stk
      STK nm geel syd
      WB melb wce nm
      WCE fre wb adel

    2. rich1234
      rich1234
      Thoughts on the below options for a double trade in:

      TU - Danger and Gawn

      TD - Priddis and Stefan Martin
    3. danny174
      danny174
      Great read again! Thanks for the finals fixtures too A TheTassieHawk. Save me some time!

      I am running very low on trades (have 3) so might have to do some creative trading this week, including finding a mid pricer that has some value.

      I have come up with two left field options:
      Hunter (M/F) @ $386k had more than 30 disposals last 3 weeks
      Giles @ $391k only played two games for Bombers but has scored 85 and 106, will the Bombers continue to play him as sole ruck to assess whether to keep him or will they bring McKernan back
      Kreuzer @ $430k - has picked up in form and could be sole ruck if they drop Wood up spudding up last week

      I know none of these are perfect but if they were, they wouldn't be mid-pricers would they? Anyone care to comment on any of these three. Your views would be appreciated. Particularly interested to know if anyone has seen the role Hunter is playing. He doesn't seem to be getting many clearances which suggest he never starts in the centre and instead plays as a outside mid.
    4. danny174
      danny174
      Apparently I can't count (no wonder why I lost my last final). It woudl be three otpions!
    5. G-Train
      G-Train
      Read this post every week BB. Thanks for another year of insight and thought provocation.
    6. Len
      Len
      Well said, same here, I read it every week though I don't often comment I certainly appreciate it
    7. TerryinBangkok
      TerryinBangkok
      Me too. Highly appreciated BB.

      I get a bit itchy on the rare occasion it is late.
    8. TheTassieHawk
      TheTassieHawk
      Montagna is one of 4 cheap mids I am looking at

      The others are steven ward and Neale - thoughts on these options ??

    9. TheTassieHawk
      TheTassieHawk
      Giles up aginst sauce this week, hunter was good in a big win last week Kreuzer is not really screaming pick me IMO

      Good luck with your choice
    10. RPritch
      RPritch
      If you have to pick one of those 3 then Hunter is the obvious choice
    11. warsaken
      warsaken
      Any thoughts on Burgoyne?

      Always seems to fire up at the business end of the year. Similar price to T.McDonald, but in much better recent form. Will be a floating Emergency between mid/def

      TU Burgoyne
      TD McDonald
    12. willy
      willy
      If not for 35 points last week i would have sat back this week and watched this week sail by but alas i didnt trade Oxley to Houli left me to field H.Goddard which in the end cost me the win (H.Goddard 49, Houli 103 lost by 35 you do the math).

      So is it better late than never with Houli or are there better options 4 trades 150k Backs are already : Heater, Hodge, Newnes, Gibbo, Lever, Oxley/Houli (or other options) H.Goddard and Hamling.

      TU- Oxley - Houli

      TD - Look for another option
    13. danny174
      danny174
      I was cosnidering Montagna to (I already have Steven) but St Kilda play NM this week. Jacobs has kept Heppell, Rocky and Jones to 16 disposals or less int he last few weeks. Hoping he goes to Armitage.
    14. TheTassieHawk
      TheTassieHawk
      Willy if you have 4 trades consider going 1 up 1 down and getting Picken in for Oxley/Lever/Hamling if your bank allows

      it also helps to know whether you have any cashcows in the mids or fwds (such as Lambert/Steele/OBrien) that are ready to cull??
    15. TheTassieHawk
      TheTassieHawk
      cheers mate I hadn't thought to consider the possibility of a tag this week

      BTW I have Armitage so am hoping that Jacobs goes to Steven if I don't pick him up !!
    16. HMH 01
      HMH 01
      Great read again BB!
      I've got a pretty big dilemma this week with Nic Nat missing again I will cop a donut unless I do a trade. I've got four trades left and $200k in the bank. There are three options I am considering that I wouldn't mind some thoughts on. I am thinking the best option might be to increase my ruck cover (rather than trading Nic Nat out) but am also contemplating a straight swap for stef martin (sauce jacobs is my other ruck)
      TU - Gawn IN, Lever OUT

      TD- Phillips & Hannebery IN, Lever & Daniel OUT

      Comment - Stef Martin IN, Nic Nat OUT (or alternative options)
    17. stripey
      stripey
      In my final act of my worst fantasy year ever....

      NicNat out for Sauce
      Buddy out for Danger (via DPP)

      Bring on 2016.
    18. danny174
      danny174
      @ HMH 01 - depends on what your goals are. If you are only concerned about leagues and have a week off then you could consider copping a donut this week with Nic Nat back the following week. There is sure to be more carnage over the next couple of weeks and 4 trades could be the difference between winning and losing your league. If on the other hand you absolutely have to win this week then you have to bring in a quality ruck. Personally, I would consider Gawn as it still leaves you three trades for the last two finals or overall.
    19. leb3
      leb3
      TU: Jacobs & Houli

      TD: Stef Martin & Murphy

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