Best Buys: Department of Corrections Pt 2

Discussion in 'Blog' started by Iain, Apr 10, 2013.

By Iain on Apr 10, 2013 at 10:00 AM
  1. Iain

    Iain Moderator Staff Member

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    This week we'll be finishing off the corrective trades part of the Best Buys, and trying to take advantage of the upcoming price changes. Any mid-priced options that are failing, or rookie choices that haven't had any game-time, should really be offloaded now before these changes come into effect, otherwise you can miss out on some serious cash generation.



    The Best Buy this week, is Charlie Dixon. While Howlett and Libba were both also strong contenders, Dixon looks to be set for a real break-out year and is a huge POD at a great price.



    The rookies haven't been looked at in depth, but they have been given an estimate of what price increase they are looking at after their next game, going by their current average.



    The Waiting List section includes rookies who have only played one game, the score from which is denoted by the *, and premium players who look set to drop in value with their expected decrease included also.



    Now, onto the Best Buys.






    DEFENSE
    ROOKIES



    Brett Goodes (WBD) D/M 128.2k 106 +105k
    Jasper Pittard (PTA) DEF 128k 92 +87k
    Lewis Stevenson (PTA) DEF 115.9k 80 +74k
    Campbell Heath (PTA) DEF 115.9k 78 +71k
    Cameron O'Shea(PTA) DEF 168.5k 72 +50k
    Luke Brown (ADE) DEF 135.5k 71 +57k



    MID-PRICERS



    Charlie DIXON (GCS) DEF 393.3k 127
    Cheerable” Charlie has had an excellent start to the year in 2013 and is looking like a real break-out contender. Getting more ruck-time so far, and making the best of his time spent forward, he has averaged near 130 and will make his way into many teams this week. Currently priced at under 400 grand if he can maintain his form he's a real bargain, and will likely be 450 grand next week. Rumour has it that he may gain ruck DPP next week as well which, if it happens, will make him a near must have on current form. Keep in mind though, it is just a rumor. Currently in under 3,000 teams!



    Pearce Hanley (BRI) DEF 485.2k 122
    Hanley had a massive game on the weekend, boosting his average to a very nice 122 for the first 2 games of the season. A great selection pre-season by the coaches who got him, Hanley is looking likely to be a top defender over the year. His 22,000 current selections mean he isn't as much of a POD as some other around.



    Dyson HEPPELL (ESS) DEF 450k 111
    After a disappointing first outing, a ripping match on the weekend saw the young Don go from Hep-D to Dyson It Up in a lot of his coach's eyes. This unfortunately may see opposition teams paying him a bit more attention, but there are plenty of other tag-worthy players around him so it probably won't be a regular issue. 63,000 selections, and counting.



    PREMIUMS



    Grant Birchall (HAW) DEF 506.4k 124
    Birch is another astute pre-season selection for his coaches, and will likely have a fair few of those that overlooked him scrambling to bring him in. The Hawks have been playing solid footy with Birch in great form, however as with last week Lake is still yet to return and that may affect his scoring. 27,000 selections place him as not a huge POD, but certainly nothing compared to Gibbs' near 150,000.



    Bryce Gibbs (CAR) D/M 509.8k 118
    Almost everyone already has Gibbsy, but for those that don't even after a quiet game on the weekend he is still well worth getting. Averaging 118 so far including his massive first up game he should comfortably average 100+ over the year.



    Beau Waters (WCE) DEF 536.5k 110
    Beau has kept on from where he left off last year, averaging a very respectable 110 over the first 2 games. West Coast have been a little shakier then most would have expected so far, and this may have seen more ball in their back-line, but barring injury Beau is looking a pretty safe bet about now for his 25,000 coaches.



    MIDFIELD
    ROOKIES



    Jaeger O'Meara (GCS) MID 115.9k 96 +95k
    Oliver Wines (PTA) MID 169.5k 88 +70k
    Jack Viney (MEL) MID 109.5k 83 +80k
    Jackson Merrett (ESS) MID 137k 65 +49k
    Bradley Hill (HAW) MID 152k 64 +43k
    Matt Jones (MEL) MID 109.5k 57 +45k



    MID-PRICERS



    Ben HOWLETT (ESS) MID 447.5k 149
    Another good game on the weekend saw Howlett's average go to 149 for the first 2 games, and if he can score a 120 odd this week he will likely rise in price by around 50 grand. As stated last week, he's looking great value at the moment but any coaches who grab him would be advised to be ready to trade him out again if he starts to drop in form. Only in 3,000 teams, and the top scorer in SC so far this season.



    Kane Cornes (PTA) MID 499k 145
    I was asked last week about Kornes and said he wouldn't get a mention, he then had another massive game on the weekend and against my personal opinions has made the cut this week. Personally I think he's not consistent enough to warrant a selection, but so far he has proved me wrong on numbers. Can he keep it up? I'd say no, but those that took the punt are well ahead at this stage. All 2,500 of them.



    Tom LIBERATORE (WBD) MID 444.4k 132
    Little Libba has been earning back the respect of the Dogs faithful in style so far this year, averaging a very nice 132 for under 450 grand. Boyd's absence may have had some effect on his scoring, but he looks to have stepped up to another level this year and should still score well with Boyd back and taking the lead taggers. Only 2,500 selection make him a great POD,



    Michael BARLOW (FRE) MID 509.5k 121
    Barlow has looked good early on, averaging 121 in a strong Dockers engine room. His disposal can be an issue at times but he is certainly looking more like Barlow pre-leg break, when he impressed so many. A good pick so far for his 10,000 selectors.



    Chad Wingard (PTA) MID 276.5k 116
    The Chad MkII has been excellent value as a mid-priced option, smashing out a massive match on the weekend his BE (break-even) is now sitting at -64 and if he can maintain his current 116 average should rise nearly 80 grand in price this week. Looks to be good value for a short-term proposition, but won't be a top 10 mid by years end. 8,500 selections.



    Travis Boak (PTA) MID 481.5k 116
    Boak has been solid for Port this year, averaging 116 he has looked to be in great form and injury free. A certain POD Boak is only in around 7,000 teams currently.



    Luke PARKER (SYD) MID 379.5k 114
    Another great value midpricer so far has been Luke Parker, averaging 114 for the year to date and priced at around 380 grand. Consistency may be an issue but so far the youngster has not disappointed the 4,500 who grabbed him.



    Aaron MULLETT (NM) MID 279.1k 112
    Mullett has looked anything but stunned early on, averaging 112 and priced at under 280 grand. Flew under the radar this pre-season, and is only in 3,000 teams, but represents some excellent value. Could rise 70 grand in price this week.



    Adam Cooney (WBD) MID 405.1k 105
    Coons has been in ripping form and is looking to be near back to his best. A great value proposition he will make his way into more than a few teams this week but his degenerative knee condition is always a concern. Only in 4,000 odd teams to date.



    David SWALLOW (GCS) MID 418.2k 104
    Swallow is in line for a break-out year this year, his third year in the AFL and always behind Gaz for a tag. Averaging 104 he has been worthwhile for his owners so far, but it will be interesting to see if he can bump that up a bit more. Currently around 6,000 selections.



    Dylan Shiel (GWS) MID 403.5k 104
    Shiel is similar to Swallow but obviously only in his second year at the top level. Priced at just over 400 grand his 104 average is certainly good value, but again to make things worthwhile he will probably need to increase that by a bit still.



    PREMIUMS



    Jobe Watson (ESS) MID 647.2k 144
    Jobe has been smashing it so far this year, and is the clear favourite in most Brownlow betting. Averaging 144 and kicking a few more goals he looks to be a great pick, and in for another big season. At this stage the AFL is very unlikely to make any ASADA related findings that will affect players until after the current season.



    Scott Pendlebury (COL) MID 667.3k 141
    Dependlebury has lived up to his nickname so far, and is averaging 141 for the season. The Pies have had a relatively tough start to the season, and Pendles has stood up when it mattered.



    Sam Mitchell (HAW) MID 592.6k 138
    Smitch is still in only around 25,000 teams, and I'm still surprised. A reliable premium bordering on elite he should deliver 110 safely each week, and rarely has injury issues. The fact that he is somewhat of a POD is really just gravy.



    Joel Selwood (GEE) MID 629.5k 135
    Ducky has seen himself out of a lot of teams this season due to concussion concerns, but so far he has managed to stay conscious while playing and even averaged 135. Only in 30,000 teams I can see this number growing rapidly once the upgrades start happening.



    Andrew Swallow (NM) MID 585.1k 124
    The older Swallow has been leading from the front for the Roo's this year, averaging 124 and finding himself in only 18,000 teams. Another reliable scorer Andrew hasn't quite made it to elite status yet but is looking the goods to do it this season. On current form it won't be long before he is 600+ grand.



    Steele Sidebottom (COL) MID 568.4k 124
    Sidey has been good value so far for his 6,000 coaches, and to be completely honest I can't see that many more coaches trading him in over Swan or Pendles. Beams and Ball may have an impact on his scoring, but he looks safe to average 100+ again this year fairly easily.



    RUCK
    ROOKIES



    Mark Blicavs (GEE) M/R 115.9k 57 +44k



    MID-PRICERS



    Todd Goldstein (NM) RUC 497.9k 113
    Goldy has shown why the pre-season should really be ignored for a lot things, averaging 113 for under 500 grand and is looking excellent value. In around 20,000 teams currently I'm predicting he will be a fairly popular trade-in this week.



    Mike Pyke (SYD) RUC 410.2k 112
    The big Canadian has been in outstanding form early in the year, but it must be taken into account that his opposition to date has been GCS and GWS. An interesting mid-priced prospect most coaches will overlook him for more reliable players, and Pyke should really be watched against better opposition before taking the plunge. In under 5,000 teams.



    Matthew Kreuzer (CAR) RUC 494.1k 111
    Kreuz has had a good start to the year, averaging 111 for under 500 grand and enjoying the number 1 ruck role. Mick seems pretty set on playing him predominantly in the ruck so he appears a safer bet than seasons past, but is still relatively risky. Surprisingly, to me anyway, he's in over 30,000 teams.



    Jonathon Griffin (FRE) RUC 491.4k 109
    Griffin looks to be one of the better POD ruck picks, and with Sandi not returning anytime soon hopefully his good form can continue for his 7,000 coaches. Priced well and with a good midfield to feed the ball to Griffin looks set for a big season.



    Tom Bellchambers (ESS) RUC 459.1k 107
    Bellchambers has so far seemed to take a decent amount of points from Paddy Ryder in the ruck, impressing with his tap work and looking generally solid around the ground. The ruck battle should be interesting to watch but at this stage I'm not keen on calling it either way. In under 12,000 teams.



    Matthew Leuenberger (BRI) RUC 301.1k 101*

    Leuey managed an impressive 101 in his first game for the year, and at just over 300 grand looks excellent value. Prospective coaches will have another week to see how he goes, unless their current ruck option is going to drop in value drastically, but Leuey is already in over 50,000 squads





    PREMIUMS



    Will Minson (WBD) RUC 508.8k 135
    Wilbur has continued to impress, and is looking the goods early on for a break-out season. Averaging a massive 135 he looks likely to rise by around 40 grand this week, he will probably be a popular trade-in target. Only in 3,000 teams so still should be a great POD.



    Ben McEvoy (StK) RUC 557.4k 114
    McEvoy has started the year in great form, averaging 114 in a losing side and showing he is still a premium ruck selection. His work around the ground continues to be a strength, and the fact he remains in under 10,000 teams is a pretty nice bonus.



    FORWARD
    ROOKIES



    Sam Dwyer (COL) M/F 96.2k 80 +79k
    Jake Neade (PTA) M/F 115.9k 72 +63k



    MID-PRICERS



    Justin Westhoff (PTA) FWD 430.7k 132
    The Hoff has been a popular trade in choice so far, averaging a ripping 132 he is looking likely to rise by 50 grand this week. Great value to date in the Port forward line, his price of 430 grand certainly makes him tempting. Consistency has been a big issue for the Hoff in the past, and the 1,000 coaches that had him last week will be hoping he's now fixed them, but I wouldn't be surprised if he had closer to 20,000 selections by next week.



    Jamie Elliott (COL) FWD 326k 109
    Jamie Elliott hasn't been incredibly consistent so far, but he did destroy the Blues on the weekend and bump his average up to 109. 2 games isn't a very large sample size, but if he can keep his average around the 100 mark he will be a great pick-up. Around 3,000 selections to date.



    Angus Monfries (PTA) M/F 356.7k 107
    Wantsfrees has again had a solid outing, and as a forward averaging 107 for under 360 grand surely has to be in contention for a few teams now. Some coaches appear to be concerned about an over-abundance of Port players in their side, but with almost 30,000 selection Angus isn't quite the POD some would think.



    Josh J. Kennedy (WCE) FWD 299.6k 106
    JJK will in all likelihood be the most traded in player this week, and for good reason. Averaging 106 for under 300 grand he is a key focal point in the Eagles forward line and he looks like rising nearly 60 grand this week. If you haven't already got him, join the 90+ thousand coaches from last week with him in their side.



    Jeremy HOWE (MEL) FWD 423.4k 105
    Howe has been in good form, is now averaging 105 after a good outing for him, and pretty much him alone, on the weekend in the Dees embarrassment. If Melbourne weren't such a basket case he would surely find himself in more than the current 2,500 teams that have him.



    PREMIUMS



    Jimmy Bartel (GEE) M/F 527.4k 123
    Abrtel kicked the match-winner on the way to a scaled 157 on the weekend. According to Freako he has scored 133 of his 245 points this season in the 4th quarter, which says he stands up when it matters, but also that he may go quite poorly in blow-outs. His DPP status has helped him to nearly 60,000 selections so far.



    Paul Chapman (GEE) M/F 535.6k 117
    Chappy has been playing well so far this season, but most coaches believe it is only a matter of time before he snaps a hammy. This is reflected in only 15,000 selections so far, despite his nice 117 average. More of a short-term prospect due to his injury concerns, he has been worthwhile so far.



    Cyril Rioli (HAW) M/F 527.3k 117
    Cyril has looked great in the first 2 games this year, averaging 117 and spending a fair bit more time through the midfield. As always Cyril will worry his coaches wit injury concerns, but looks fit and firing to date so far. Around 20,000 selections.



    Tom Rockliff (BRI) M/F 520.5k 116
    Rocky has been performing well, albeit a little slow to start off with. He looks to be the value that his almost 80,000 coaches thought he would be, and if he can maintain his averages will be a leading forward by season end.



    WAITING LIST
    Brad Crouch (ADE) MID 115.9k 85*
    Dean Terlich (MEL) DEF 109.5k 56*
    Gary Ablett (GCS) MID 740.5k 139 BE 171 -14k
    Josh P. Kennedy (SYD) MID 643k 128 BE 134 -3k
    Dane Swan (COL) MID 675.3k 120 BE 170 -22k
    Trent Cotchin (RIC) MID 622.1k 119 BE 139 -9k



    So that's it from me for another week, as always you can find me on twitter @BlueBelieverTS, or right here in the comments section.



    Who didn't make the grade that should have? Who are you trading in and out this week? Let us know!
     

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Discussion in 'Blog' started by Iain, Apr 10, 2013.

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