Best Buys for the 1st bye - Round 13

Discussion in 'Blog' started by tipbetpro, Jun 15, 2016.

By tipbetpro on Jun 15, 2016 at 10:25 PM
  1. tipbetpro

    tipbetpro Active Member

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    As is always the case on a Wednesday, our NRL tips are out (http://www.tipbetpro.com/#!current-round/kzu9o) – FYI these didn’t do nearly as bad as our AFL tips last week.

    So being the first week of the bye-round, I’ve excluded players who have a bye this week from the main list, but included them in the “wait a week” list – made sense to me.

    I did consider only naming players who played this week and next week – but that is really up to your own personal situation and strategy – and like someone who is wiser than me and has played at an AFL grand final once said “2 out of 3 ain’t bad” – yep that’s right, I took the words right out of his mouth… Ahhh it’s all coming back to me now.

    So what are we doing this week for Buy of the week?

    Well for starters we aren’t looking for a replacement for Dahlhaus or Tippett – there are some choices in the list below, but I don’t think I can add much value to that choice as you probably want to make a pick based on your bye strategy.

    No this week I’m going to do something I haven’t done yet, something I said I’d never do… But its not name a ruck. Sorry, I’m not going to help you decide between Goldy or Gawn if you need to replace NicNat (and 25%+ of SC coaches do) – mainly because a lot of you would have one of them anyway, so if you can afford it, grab the other one, otherwise flip a coin.

    Instead I’m going to name a 24 year old midfielder who only scored 81 last week, and has an average of barely 70. He has played 80 odd games over a number of seasons and has never averaged over 90 (and has only averaged over 80 once). If you haven’t guessed, I’m naming a rookie (well a rookie priced player), but this guy is a must have – of course I’m talking about Jack Trengove. At $156k, good job security (you’d think) and an almost guaranteed average of 70+ (and that’s conservative), Jack should make you $150k easily over the next 5/6 rounds, or hold him until the SC finals and he may be good for making you $250k+. Either way, there will be few “rookies” coming through with credentials like Trengove which makes him this week’s Buy of the Week.

    Again, the format below is:
    POSITION Name (CLUB) – current price (expected increase) – AVERAGE

    DEFENDERS
    Rookies:

    DEF Logan Austin (PTA) - 124k (+37k) - AVG=62 (Buyer beware – spot will be under threat when Hombsch returns in a couple of weeks)
    DEF Samuel Collins (FRE) - 174k (+34k) - AVG=66 (Even with a price range, still a great value pick as a rookie)

    Keepers:
    DEF Josh Gibson (HAW) - 503k (+7k) - AVG=102 (Still a good price and looking the goods again)
    DEF Heath Shaw (GWS) - 631k (-7k) - AVG=117 (Worth the money if you have it and don’t have him)

    Midfielders
    Rookies:

    MID Kade Stewart (HAW) - 102k (+60k) - AVG=80 (Blitzed Essendon but with Mitchell and Duryea returning will be one whose spot is under threat)
    MID Jarrad Jansen (BRL) - 124k (+42k) - AVG=67 (Surely solid JS with Brisbane committed to rebuild)
    MID Jack TRENGOVE (MEL) - 157k (+39k) - AVG=71 (BoTW!!!)

    Keepers: (There are lots of good mids – this list is not exhaustive)
    MID Tom Rockliff (BRL) - 522k (+31k) - AVG=98 (Is still a bargain if he doesn’t get injured – but could be your last chance to get him on the cheap)
    MID Callan Ward (GWS) - 530k (+6k) - AVG=111
    MID Joel Selwood (GEE) - 543k (+26k) - AVG=112 (A reasonable price still if he can keep up this form)
    MID Lachie Neale (FRE) - 595k (-19k) - AVG=111
    MID Daniel Hannebery (SYD) - 595k (-11k) - AVG=118
    MID Patrick Dangerfield (GEE) - 656k (+31k) - AVG=133 (on the expensive side but worth it if he scores 200+)

    Rucks
    Rookies:

    RUC Marc Pittonet (HAW) - 124k (+15k) - AVG=40 (Stay away – Ceglar should retain spot this week)

    Keepers:
    RUC Max GAWN (MEL) - 586k (0k) - AVG=117 (Now that NicNat is gone, maybe you should get Gawn)
    RUC Todd Goldstein (NTH) - 599k (-17k) - AVG=115 (If you really want Goldy, but can leave it a week, he may be a bit cheaper)

    Forwards
    Rookies:

    FWD James Rose (SYD) - 155k (+37k) - AVG=68 (May have better JS with Tippett out but will depend on Sydney strategy with forward line talls/smalls)
    FWD Will Hams (ESS) - 158k (+26k) - AVG=58

    Keepers:
    M/F Daniel Wells (NTH) - 502k (+22k) - AVG=104 (A bit of an injury concern, but could be a good replacement for Tippet or Dahlhaus)
    M/F Zac Merrett (ESS) - 507k (+8k) - AVG=104 (as above, another option if you need to replace an injured player)
    M/F Dayne Zorko (BRL) - 555k (-12k) - AVG=113 (Of course if you have the cash you could also go he Zorko)

    Still a week away:
    M/F Sam J. Reid (GWS) - 119k - AVG=46
    DEF Tom Barrass (WCE) - 238k - AVG=51
    R/F Jack Hannath (FRE) - 243k - AVG=51

    The players below all have a bye this week:
    M/D Jesse Joyce (GCS) - 102k - AVG=27
    DEF Rory Laird (ADE) - 472k - AVG=96
    DEF Alex Rance (RIC) - 478k - AVG=98
    DEF Kade Simpson (CAR) - 529k - AVG=105
    DEF Sam Docherty (CAR) - 576k - AVG=110
    MID Trent Cotchin (RIC) - 579k - AVG=111
    MID Gary Ablett (GCS) - 583k - AVG=116
    MID Jack Steven (STK) - 595k - AVG=110
    MID Scott Pendlebury (COL) - 641k - AVG=120
    M/F Leigh Montagna (STK) - 480k - AVG=100
    M/F Dustin MARTIN (RIC) - 567k - AVG=109

    So that’s Best Buys for this week.

    Good luck to all with your trades and hopefully some wins on the weekend. For all your trade discussion feel free to join us in the comments section below.

    Cheers

    http://www.tipbetpro.com/ - your statistically tested guide to tipping and betting on AFL, NRL and cricket
     
    • Like Like x 3
    • Option 5 Option 5 x 1

Comments

Discussion in 'Blog' started by tipbetpro, Jun 15, 2016.

    1. walesy
      walesy
      #FearTheBeard
    2. Grizzles
      Grizzles
      What are people's thoughts on the rookies? I already have Trengrove (went a week early) but interested in Stewart (opt 1) v Jansen (opt 2) and Rose(opt 3) v Hams(opt 4). Only really need them over the byes but as always the more cash they make the better. Downgrading this week to make some cash for next week's upgrading!
      • Option 2 Option 2 x 2
      • Option 1 Option 1 x 1
    3. tipbetpro
      tipbetpro
      Well as we said above, Jansen probably has better job security than Stewart - so he'd be my choice out of those four, or were you looking to pick up two of them?
    4. Grizzles
      Grizzles
      Yeah probably gonna get 2 of them! Leaning towards hams as the other choice simply cause I think he has a better chance of retaining his spot.
      • Like Like x 1
    5. walesy
      walesy
      Ryan Daniels ‏@FootyRhino
      Lycett will play for @EastPerthFC - Jon Giles will play ruck for @WestCoastEagles - obviously no @RealNaitanui either.
      • Dislike Dislike x 1
    6. BJWNFI
      BJWNFI
      Thanks as usual Tipbetpro! Sorry guy's - totally off topic here, but is there any change to the captaincy loophole over the bye rounds? Are we safe to put the C on any one of the bye players that we have on field if we want to take the VC score?
      • Like Like x 1
    7. walesy
      walesy
      Any bye player will work for the purposes of the captains loophole as they won't be locked til the last game.
      • Like Like x 3
    8. BJWNFI
      BJWNFI
      thanks Walesy!
    9. IPOD
      IPOD
      this is also posted in teams
      Mummy not playing Daulhaus injured, bye rounds and i have 16 playing without trades. Not really wanting to punt Mummy not sure on what to do with Daulhaus/ Hall also thinking that J.Smith has maxed out from the pies and cash him in to Trengove. Have Hartley who is going to leek some cash as well too many holes to fill.

      Option 1 - Smith - Trengove - use 1 trade play with 17 sit on Daulhaus and Hall - move them on next week for Dusty?
      Option 2 - Smith - Trengove - Hall/Dalhaus - Buddy or via dpp of Merrett - Rocky (losing my dpp in the mids)
      • Option 2 Option 2 x 5
      • Option 1 Option 1 x 1
    10. IPOD
      IPOD
      I
      I guess next question is bring in
      TU - Buddy
      TD - Rocky
      • Dislike Dislike x 5
      • Like Like x 1
    11. IPOD
      IPOD
      Trade out for one of the above
      TU - Hall
      TD - Daulhaus
      • Dislike Dislike x 3

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