Welcome again to the Best Buys.

With upgrade season normally starting around now, this season feels a bit different so far, with many SCers already having made a couple to cover the injury crises that have appeared. Goodes is gone, as the title suggests, and this will throw even more doubt into the minds of SCers about their squads and how many trades will be needed for injuries over the year. So far no-one has seemed to avoid the bullets and it would be safe to say that the majority of SC teams have had a couple of worries already. This is where the Best Buys comes in. Hopefully you can find some good options to cover these injuries, and some great upgrades to keep the points rolling in. I was a little bit rushed with the Best Buys this week so feel free to let me know of any mistakes on issues I may have missed.

My pick of the week is actually 2 this week, downgrading into Horsley and Adams, and then pulling a double-upgrade next week. Magner is staying put for me, as even with the tagging roles hes had I feel hes showed the most potential, and Shiel is pretty close in price anyway. If you have Goodes then he most likely will need to be traded and with the rookies on the bubble this round it seems that now is the best time to do it. As always you should wait until the teams are announced to make the final call, but the double-downgrade appears to have soem real merit this week.

So, grab a coffee, join me over the break, and we can get into the Best Buys for this week properly. Id love to hear opinions from you guys on the Best Buys and who should/shouldnt have made it, so Ill look forward to hearing from you in the comments.

Good luck and good trading!


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The Best Buys uses a mix of price, form, break-evens and projected salaries to assess the Best Buys of each round. These are essentially the players that represent the best “value” which is determined by the above factors. Some player will not be mentioned on here even if they are playing well, as value is the key for this article. If a player is averaging 110, which is certainly solid, but priced at an average of 112 then they will not be rated. This does not mean these players should be avoided or not picked due to this, but simply that they aren’t as good “value” as the others in the Best Buys. For all the player I’ve missed, and any more you’re wanting opinions on, the thumbs are always there.

The thumbs act as a polling tool for the TS community, if you pose a question with either a yes-no answer or a “thumbs-up X, thumbs down Y” in there then the community as a whole can give you some great feedback into your choices and what they think about it, while also catering to the lazy amongst them that can’t be bothered actually typing out a response.

The “Waiting List” section at the end of the article shows players who are looking like being great buys but for whatever reason will be better looked at in the coming weeks rather than this one. In the case of the first few names on the list this is because they have only played one game (indicated by the * next to their single game score) and you will have one more week to assess them, having only played one match they do not have a salary prediction either, for the others on the list it is usually because they will be decreasing in value this round based on current predictions and could be picked up cheaper the next week. Some players on the Waiting List will not make the next Best Buys, due to only a small decrease in price etc, and so it is something you should keep an eye on regularly. The Waiting List also includes a projected salary drop over the next round for each player.


DEFENSE
ROOKIES
Nathan Brown (COL) DEF 200.7k
Brown has had a horrible run with injuries, and as such is essentially rookie priced. He’s played the last 2 games for the Pies (his only 2 for 2012) and while he hasn’t racked up huge numbers, averaging only 56, if he can stay fit then he should get good TOG and still make you money as a cash cow. Big if of course given his history, but could also provide some valuable cover and has a R12 bye.

MID-PRICERS
Beau Waters (WCE) DEF 447.9k
Beau has kept on with his solid early form, with an average of 95, and at under 450 grand is still a decent price. Scores are all over the place this year so with premiums pumping out inconsistent games regularly (is that possible? you know what I mean) consistent scorers are going to be highly valued. As with all mid-priced options he carries some risks.

Alex Rance (RIC) DEF 470.5k
Rance’s numbers speak for themselves, and I’ve done so enough already I think. He’s made multiple appearances in the Best Buys and is probably off a lot peoples radars due to his bye, so he could be a great POD for leagues.

PREMIUMS
Brett Deledio (RIC) D/M 584.9k
Lids is still under-valued going by performance this year, and as such is still a Best Buy. Averaging 121 and priced at under 600 grand he is a must have this season and barring injury will remain a top defender all year. Those that don’t have him, get him in now.

Brendon Goddard (StK) D/M 515.1k
Goddard is still one of the best defenders going around this season, but his shocking game a couple of rounds ago has seen his price plummet. A break-even of 137 indicates that he will lose another 10+ grand this week meaning he could be ideal for a double-downgrade this week and upgrade into him next week but for those that don’t have him and don’t want to wait, 10 grand (SC) really isn’t a lot of moolah.

MIDFIELD
ROOKIES
Kyal Horsley (GCS) MID 128.7k
Horsley was talked up a fair bit pre-season and with an average of 92 from his 2 games so far it’s easy to see why. Quickly becoming a “must-have” rookie he is on the bubble this round and will likely be near 200 grand after this weekend. GCS will still be rotating heavily this year but amazingly so far GWS has shown that their rookie rotation isn’t as damaging for the cows as the non-expansion teams rotations.

Sam Reid (GWS) MID 113.2k
Reid has so far flown under the radar in SC land, with all the GWS attention going to the more hyped names going around. An average of 45 isn’t exceptional but as he has been sub-affected if he can continue to get games then he should be a reliable cow. Break-even of -21 means he will get a decent price-rise after his next match but may still be affordable if he is subbed again.

Jesse Stringer (GEE) MID 166.8k
Stringer is gaining more attention weekly, and has already been traded in by a fair few coaches this week. Reversible trades certainly changing things this year. As a Geelong up-and-comer he will have solid support in the mid-field and should be on the winning side more often than not. Still a risk and with his slightly higher price he may get overlooked by many teams but still has great potential.

Lachie Neale (FRE) MID 120.1k
Neale was another cog in the pre-season hype-machine, and after being promoted to seniors and getting a couple of games he is starting to look like a decent pick. Possibly not up to the same level as a couple of the other rookie options and playing for Lyin, but should still be considered. Team role will be interesting to watch over the next few weeks.

MID-PRICERS
Lewis Jetta (SYD) MID 365.5k
Jetta is enjoying a great run of form, and after the woeful start to his goal-kicking career has managed to snag himself a few good goals and a decent SC average. Still quite cheap but as upgrade season starts to gain momentum the mid-priced options who aren’t making the tops brackets will be increasingly ignored. Goodes’ injury may help or hinder his output so some monitoring may be a good idea before taking the leap.

PREMIUMS
Brent Stanton (ESS) MID 594.2k
Stants has now taken the lead in the “points scored” category for SC this year, and is seriously burning the coaches (like myself) who chose to ignore his early form. Questions remain over how he will handle the hard tag, but at an average of 132 he can afford to have a couple of quiet ones. Still priced under 600 grand with an average that is valued at closer to 700 grand if he can keep it up he’s an absolute steal.

Josh P Kennedy (SYD) MID 606.4k
JPK has continued to smash opponents and is averaging a massive 131 over 2012 to date. Sharing a bye with the Ess/Coll/Gee players will keep him out of a lot of teams but his form indicates that this could be a bad move, from performances so far I’d say his week-in, week-out big scores will more than cover for a one-off donut. Seriously consider, then get him in.

Scott Pendlebury (COL) MID 634.8k
Pendles has now gotten over his shocker, and is on the steep road back up to 700 grand. Still priced fairly low for someone that started the season almost 100 grand more expensive, Pendles should be, and is, a lock in most teams. The bye strategies this year look like shaping peoples teams early on so I for one feel that the mid choices will decide the outcome this season. Plan it out and if Pendles fits then now is the time to grab him.

Joel Selwood (GEE) MID 629.9k
Should be welcomed back to the playing side this week down at Geelong, and hopefully back into the fold of top mids. Currently in the top 6 mids for the season only injury or suspension seem likely to drop him out of that elite group. A good choice from the start and a decent pick now he will be in most teams by the end of the year.

Scott Selwood (WCE) MID 557.9k
Scooter is really impressing this season, increasing his average so far by around 30 ppg (points per game) and is sitting around 70 grand cheaper than his brother but averaging the same as him. This makes Scooter great value and a good overall pick, and means he should be in consideration by all coaches who still have a free spot in the mid-field. His round 11 bye certainly helps his case and should see him make his way into a lot of sides.

RUCK
ROOKIES
Big O 106.6k / Redden 171.3k / Longer 161.6k
The 3 rookie rucks on the bubble can all safely be grouped together I feel, as each have dodgy job security but are looking like the best downgrades. Redden has played three but is still cheap enough to consider, but all 3 are quite risky and should only be viewed as a potential back-up for byes.

MID-PRICERS
Ivan Maric (RIC) RUC 451.9k
The Mullett has continued to rack up the stats, surprising quite a few with how he’s flourished with the change of club this season. Clearly now the Tigers number 1 ruck he should keep getting good TOG (time on ground) and will hopefully continue to score well. Good JS (job security) may see him edge ahead of some of his competing rivals for your R2 spot.

Hamish MacIntosh (NM) RUC 494.4k
Hmac is still performing well, and is just under 500 grand now so will most likely be premium priced after this week. Goldy has admitted to a “lack of intensity” so far this season and has stated he’s committed to improving in this area. Any improvement will probably see Hmac getting a bit less of the pie but something people will need to keep an eye on.

PREMIUMS
Jarryd Roughead (HAW) R/F 520.3k
Roughy is performing well after his Achilles injury last season, and has already spent some time in the ruck on return without any apparent issues. Acting as a swing-man Roughy could prove not just very useful over the byes but also could well end up as a top forward. Averaging 103 with a break-even of 104 means that he should still be around the same value next week.

Paddy Ryder (ESS) RUC 510.8k
After a massive start to the year Ryder has started to slow, but is still performing well in comparison to many of the other rucks so far. He’s expected to lose around 10 grand this week so he will be slightly cheaper next week, but again it isn’t really enough to change your upgrade planning on. Definitely still worth a look but does carry some risks.

Dean Cox (WCE) RUC 542.6k
Coxy continues to drop in price, albeit only slightly. Predicted to lose another 2 grand this week with NicNat’s status still unknown Coxy is a steal and should be a reliable choice. Known for his durability he is a solid performer who has started slowly this season but looks to be getting into some good form. Only premium ruckman still on the park this year by my count also.

FORWARD
ROOKIES
Taylor Adams (GWS) M/F 136.6k
Adams is the second of the two leading downgrade targets this week, averaging 85 over his first 2 games should see him make some good money off the bat, and hopefully a lot more of it down the track. M/F eligibility is great and provides some good flexibility, especially around trading. Has looked solid whilst playing and should have as good JS as any other GWS recruit. On the bubble and may be too costly after this round.

MID-PRICERS
Stevie Johnson (GEE) FWD 440.8k
Stevie J continued on with his Melbourne beating ways, racking up some big numbers last week and bumping his yearly average up into the 80s. Still a long way off his best but this could signal a turn-around in form and for under 450 grand it’s a risk many will be willing to take. His recent big game has arrested his price free-fall and next week will likely make over 20 grand back. Good time to get him in for those willing to risk it.

Matthew Wright (ADE) M/F 394.7k
Wright has slipped under the radar for most this year, but averaging 92 with a price of under 400 grand means he should now be considered. M/F helps, as does Adelaides draw this season, but I think the main factor many will see is the price. He would need a break-out season to stick with the leading forwards but has so far had a good start. One for the mid-priced lovers out there.

Tom Hawkins (GEE) FWD 456.7k
Tomahawk has continued to impress, averaging 101 and showing why Geelong have put so much into him. In an era where true power forwards are lacking Tomahawk has the potential to earn himself a spot in the top forwards as one of few KPPs (key position players). Looking like the real deal this year I think Tomahawk will be one of the best by years end. Worth a strong look.

Justin Sherman (WBD) M/F 397.8k
The Sherminator managed to confuse a couple of SC coaches with his scores last round but for those that had him, they were certainly willing to take it. Averaging 98 so far he wouldn’t be considered a top mid but if he maintains these numbers he could well become a top forward this season. The Dogs are also lacking real targets so M/F type players may get a bit more of it this year. Worth a look.

PREMIUMS
Paddy Dangerfield (ADE) M/F 505.6k
Dangermouse is enjoying the break-out season many tipped at the start of the year, and averaging 106 with a break-even of 47 shows that he is still on the rise. At just over 500 grand he is about value but on his current rolling average he will likely rise around 20 grand this week. A good choice for F5/6, his play style should continue to reward him with good SC scores.

Paul Chapman (GEE) M/F 496.4k
Chappy has started slowly again this season, but is now looking to pick up his form. Priced at under 500 grand for what he is capable of he certainly seems good value, the question will be whether he can continue to improve his scoring this season or whether he will plateau at around this mark. Risky pick but has got the runs on the board.

Steele Sidebottom (COL) M/F 513.8k
Beams can also be mentioned here, as both seem to be quite similar options. Sidey is averaging 105 so far and is priced at around 515 grand so is about value at the moment, but is looking likely to improve this average as the Pies rely on him more through the midfield. R12 bye should help his case and the forward lines are looking inconsistent enough this season for either Sidey or Beams to appear a lock in most teams, some will get both.

Lance Franklin (HAW) FWD 523.7k
Buddy looks like he may be close to bottoming out, expected to lose around 4 grand this week. A break-even of 118 means he is still a decent chance to increase in price but it certainly won’t be by much. Averaging 107 so far he is still a leading SC forward even after a few poor matches. As good a price as you can expect to get Buddy at, now is a great time to jump on for those that started the year without him.


WAITING LIST
Sam Mitchell (HAW) MID 536.9k -20k
Marc Murphy (CAR) MID 611.5k -20k
Chris Judd (CAR) MID 596k -33k
Nick Dal Santo (StK) MID 536.5k -30k
Spud Tippett (ADE) FWD 462k -33k
Heath Scotland (CAR) D/M 543.7k -14k
Luke Hodge (HAW) MID 577.2k -58k
Todd Goldstein (NM) RUC 484.8k -53k
Callan Ward (GWS) MID 525.3k -29k
Luke Dahlhaus (WBD) FWD 449.9k -28k
Tom Rockliff (BRI) MID 613.8k -20k
Travis Cloke (COL) FWD 482.4k -20k
Matt Suckling (HAW) DEF 483.3k -19k

Thanks for joining me again, and hopefully Ill see you here next week for another Best Buys.

Over to the thumbs!