Best Buys: Here Come The Rookies

Discussion in 'Blog' started by duncan44, Jul 25, 2012.

By duncan44 on Jul 25, 2012 at 10:00 AM
  1. duncan44

    duncan44 New Member

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    Welcome all to this weeks edition of the Best Buys.

    As the title suggests we are faced with an influx of rookies either on the bubble or playing their second game this week, so theres a fair few to look through.

    My pick of the week is Droopy, Drew Petrie, as he is in some great touch personally, and in one of the form sides of the comp at the moment. Now due to internet issues this is the 3rd time Ive written this intro so Ill cut it short this time and hope for the best.

    For all the rest of the info on Droopy and the rookies, and the remainder of the Best Buys, join me over the break.

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    INFO

    The Best Buys uses a mix of price, form, break-evens and projected salaries to assess the Best Buys of each round. These are essentially the players that represent the best “value” which is determined by the above factors. Some player will not be mentioned on here even if they are playing well, as value is the key for this article. If a player is averaging 110, which is certainly solid, but priced at an average of 112 then they will not be rated. This does not mean these players should be avoided or not picked due to this, but simply that they aren’t as good “value” as the others in the Best Buys. For all the players I’ve missed, and any more you’re wanting opinions on, the thumbs are always there.

    The thumbs act as a polling tool for the TS community, if you pose a question with either a yes-no answer or a “thumbs-up X, thumbs down Y” in there then the community as a whole can give you some great feedback into your choices and what they think about it, while also catering to the lazy amongst them that can’t be bothered actually typing out a response.

    The “Waiting List” section at the end of the article shows players who are looking like being great buys but for whatever reason will be better looked at in the coming weeks rather than this one. In the case of the first few names on the list this is because they have only played one game (indicated by the * next to their single game score) and you will have one more week to assess them, having only played one match they do not have a salary prediction either, for the others on the list it is usually because they will be decreasing in value this round based on current predictions and could be picked up cheaper the next week. Some players on the Waiting List will not make the next Best Buys, due to only a small decrease in price etc, and so it is something you should keep an eye on regularly. The Waiting List also includes a projected salary drop over the next round for each player.

    DEFENSE
    ROOKIES

    Mark Baguley (ESS) D/M 94.7k

    Baguley is one of the many rookies on the bubble this week, creating selection dilemmas for many SC coaches. Averaging 68 over his first two games he is tipped to rise around 60 grand after his next match and if he can continue to get game-time should be a good selection. Unfortunately this is a big if, as with all of the rookies coming in this round, and will require some luck and good researching to ensure the right rookie selections.


    MID-PRICERS

    Andrew Carrazzo (CAR) D/M 494.6k

    Carrots is still priced under 500 grand, and is still a certain bargain. Averaging 99 for the season and an improved 108 over his last three games the versatile D/M offers great value and some good coverage options. Spends the majority of his game-time in the midfield, and therefore is a great defensive buy.

    Heath Scotland (CAR) D/M 484.4k
    Scotland is still lurking around the Best Buys, and at a good price he shouldn’t be ignored. Averaging 101 for the season and priced at around 485 grand he is a solid defensive choice however he may be behind Carrots for a lot of SCers. With a lot of coaches already with Scotland in their side he probably won’t be much of a POD.

    Chris Yarran (CAR) DEF 371.9k
    Yarran is still offering great defensive cover, and for some is an acceptable D7 option. His season average of 68 has been severely affected by poor form earlier in the year but he has since lifted his 3 game average to a much healthier 94. Unfortunately very dependent on the performance of other key Blues, and can be inconsistent.

    Grant Birchall (HAW) DEF 498.5k
    Birch remains a top-line defender going into the pointy end of the season, averaging a respectable 98 for the year but an even better 107 over his last 3 games. The Hawks are in some ripping form recently and are now basking in the glow of premiership favouritism, with Birch one of the players to benefit. Clarko restings aside, he should remain a top defensive option for the remainder of the season.

    Troy Chaplin (PTA) DEF 445.9k
    Chaplin is a decent option for a mid-priced defender, averaging 91 for the year and 97 over his last 3 games he hasn’t been exceptional but certainly adequate for his cost. A solid POD option you can at least be sure that the ball will be in the Port backline a fair bit, however he may not pump out those big 120+ scores we’re all after.


    PREMIUMS

    Pearce Hanley (BRI) DEF 501.4k

    Hanley has been in solid form of late, averaging 94 for the season but with the potential to go large on any given weekend. A good POD and in a team that sees a lot of the ball in the backline.

    Heath Shaw (COL) DEF 518.8k
    Heater has kept on with his solid form this year, averaging a healthy 106 for the season and a massive (for a defender) 118 over his last 3 matches. A key part of the Pies line-up his versatility is now coming to the fore as Bucks throws him into the forward line with some regularity. Great choice but susceptible to the odd brain fade.


    MIDFIELD
    ROOKIES

    Jackson Sheringham (GEE) MID 94.7k

    Sheringham has now played 2 games for the Cats, and if he can make it 3 will most likely raise his value by around 30 grand going by his 42 average thus far. Job security will again be an issue, but he could be a difference maker if he can stay on the ground.

    Anthony Miles (GWS) MID 113.2k
    Miles is another GWS rookie getting a look-in this week, and whilst his average is amongst the best (84) he may put him slightly behind Clifton for many. Tipped to rise around 80 grand this week, why couldn’t he have debuted in the early rounds?

    Sam Dunell (StK) MID 108.7k
    Dunell is unfortunately another rookie I don’t have much info on, save his 2 game average is 32 and he’s tipped to rise by around 10 grand this week, meaning he could be left and considered next week for those unsure on his job security. Midfield only he may not quite match the potential benefits some of the others are offering this round.

    Stephen Clifton (GWS) MID 130.7k
    Clifton is possibly the pick of the rookies this week, averaging 50 over his first two games but being highly rated by those in the know in the land of the Giants. Rated highly pre-season and a good performer at the state league level he has the talent to become a top-class footballer, the question however is whether he can make that happen this year.

    MID-PRICERS

    Tom Rockliff (BRI) MID 490.8k

    At under 500 grand Rocky offers great value for the bargain hunters, and an average of 108 isn’t anything to sneeze at at the best of times. Has been dumped forward several times for low returns this year, but when on song he can be a prolific scorer.

    Marc Murphy (CAR) MID 452.1k
    SMurph has been in decent form since his return from injury, however his main appeal would have to still be his price. Tipped to be a top 5 midfielder pre-season this year and now at around 450 grand he is certainly under-priced and has the potential to score well every week. Excellent coverage option for those with an abundance of trades, and a cheap M6 option for those without.

    Jimmy Bartel (GEE) MID 496.1k
    Abrtel should make his return this week, and hopefully not make me look stupid like he did in his last Best Buys outing, where he didn’t actually get a game. Priced at under 500 grand and an integral part of the Cats engine-room Abrtel is definitely worth a look and could provide great M7 coverage, as he did for many last season.


    PREMIUMS

    Rory Sloane (ADE) MID 520.2k

    Sloane has been smashing it in the Crows midfield, managing a healthy 110 average for the year while supporting Scotty T and Danger. A certain POD Sloane could make a big difference, for better or worse, come SC finals.

    Scott Pendlebury (COL) MID 593.9k
    Pendles is sitting at just below 600 grand, and with a season average of 125 is currently under-priced. Still an SC champ he should certainly be considered by those that don’t have him in yet, but they would probably be in the minority at this stage.

    Dane Swan (COL) MID 614.6k
    Swannie is possibly in SC best form currently, going about his business seemingly with no regard for what or how anyone else is doing. Priced at about 615 grand he is on the high end of the pricing spectrum but on recent form has certainly been worth it. With all the byes now out of the way there also shouldn’t be any issues with he and Pendles in the same SC midfield.

    Jobe Watson (ESS) MID 583.9k
    Jobe continues to rack up the big, or at least decent, scores through the Bombers midfield. Priced at around 580 grand he is on the pricey side but for a season average of 122 he is well worth it. Those that chose Stanton over Jobe early in the year will probably be feeling very hard-done by.

    Gary Ablett Jr (GCS) MID 608.2k
    Gazza is still Gazza, and is also currently priced around 60 grand under on his season average of 134. Not much more can be said about the little master, simply that he is an SC gun and should be in all sides.

    James Kelly (GEE) MID 550.3k
    Kelly has been having a good season this year, providing very valuable service through the Cats midfield and averaging a healthy 101. His 3 game average however, is sitting on 121, which pushes him into the “elite” category in the midfield and shows that if he can maintain this form he could be the sneaky POD many are looking for.

    Josh P Kennedy (SYD) MID 541.3k
    JPK is at a great price of around 540 grand, and even with some quiet recent games is still averaging 119 for the year. A classy player in his break-out year he should certainly be looked at, and with the Swans current form could be a great selection for finals.


    RUCK
    ROOKIES

    Josh Hall (GCS) RUC 94.7k

    Josh is another rookie on the bubble this round, and unfortunately one that I haven’t heard much about. Averaging 26 for his two games this year he hasn’t ripped it up but has at least managed to get on the field, and should rise around 10 grand in value after his next game. There are probably better downgrade options around for most.

    PREMIUMS

    Sam Jacobs (ADE) RUC 554.3k

    Jacobs has really come into his own this year, averaging 102 for the season and an even better 126 over his last three games. Pressing his case for All-Australian selection he is in great form and hopefully can maintain it.

    FORWARD
    ROOKIES

    Scott Gumbleton (ESS) FWD 172.7k

    Gumby is a left-field selection, and will take a lot of guts for SC coaches to pick him up. Averaging 70 over his two games of the year, and priced at first-round draft pick levels, he could be a great POD coverage option for finals if he can do what he hasn’t been able to in the last 6 or so years, and that’s stay on the ground.

    Josh Walker (GEE) FWD 113.2k
    Walker has managed 2 games for the Cats now, and is another player “on the bubble”. Averaging 52 over these two games he has been useful in the Cats forward line and will be looking to secure a spot there for the finals. One to consider but as with all rookies will be a risky selection.

    Josh Bruce (GWS) FWD 113.2k
    Bruce has managed a nice 62 average over his only 2 games this year, and is now on the bubble for GWS. Sheeds stated earlier in the season that he only planned on playing his young players for half the season each, and if true this bodes well for Bruce’s ongoing job security. One of several GWS options coming to the fore this week.

    Thomas Couch (MEL) M/F 94.7k
    Couch is another young rookie who was hyped up considerably pre-season, only to not get any games for the majority of the year. After getting his second Guernsey on the weekend he is averaging 54 and should rise around 45 grand after his next game. Melbourne’s performances this year, and the treatment of Magner however, may put a few off him.

    MID-PRICERS

    Mitch Robinson (CAR) M/F 490.1k

    Robbo hasn’t quite lived up to his pre-season hype this year, performing well but not quite at the elite level. His average of 96 for the season isn’t poor by most standards, but his 3 game average of 107 shows what he is capable of when on his game. A great POD for finals, if Carlton can keep it together until then of course.

    Steele Sidebottom (COL) M/F 493.5k
    Sidey has dropped off in recent weeks, bringing his price down to a very nice 495 odd grand. That brings with it some concerns over his form, but for those confident that it is a temporary issue he is certainly bargain priced. Averaging 109 for the year even with his recent scoring problems he is still one of the leading forwards this season.


    PREMIUMS

    Paddy Dangerfield (ADE) M/F 515.7k

    Paddy has dropped in price significantly over recent weeks, now sitting on a very nice 515 grand he represents some solid value and should remain to be one of the better forward options currently going around. On his current break-even and average he will be looking at around a 20 grand price rise this week, so now is a great time to jump on.

    Dayne Beams (COL) M/F 584.7k
    Beams’ 3 game average of 126 has propelled him to the top of the forward options this week, priced at round 585 grand he is overpriced for his season average of 115 but on recent form is still a great buy. Competing for a slice of the Collingwood Pie (see what I did there?) with Pendles, Swan and to a lesser extent recently Sidey, he does have some risk associated but so far this year has been a more than worthwhile pick.

    Stevie Johnson (GEE) FWD 525k
    Stevie J seems to be in the midst of a patch of good form, averaging 122 over his last 3 games compared to his 99 average for the season. Priced at 525 grand on current form he’s a steal but his inconsistencies in scoring can cause headaches for his coaches. With the Cats looking to lock in their top 8 spot he will be looked to as a driving force through the midfield and forward line.

    Jordan Lewis (HAW) M/F 502.2k
    Lewis has been in and out of the Best Buys this year, but has probably been more consistent than a few of the more regular players. Averaging 100 for the year and a much nicer 117 for his last 3 games he is a leading forward option, but may suffer slightly on Buddy’s return.

    Cyril Rioli (HAW) FWD 548.9k
    Cyril has been smashing it in recent weeks, averaging 130 over the last 3, and 100 for the year. As long as his hammies stay attached he can be expected to maintain a solid level of scoring for the remainder of the year, and may end up in the leading group of forwards. However history tells us that Cyril and his hammies have been a risky proposition for some time now.

    Jarryd Roughead (HAW) R/F 540.9k
    Roughie continues on his way, scoring well but not exceptionally so, and hovering on the fringe of selection for many SC coaches. Priced at 540 grand for an average of 104 he is priced slightly over value, but his versatility as a ruck/forward with the new trading rules should make up for this.

    Drew Petrie (NM) FWD 516.9k
    Petrie is in ripping form at the moment, after finding some good touch earlier in the season but struggling to maintain it with any consistency. Coming off the back of a massive 160 point game on the weekend his yearly average has been bumped up to 101, and his 3 game average bumped up to a very nice 120. A risky choice but potentially valuable POD, North are in good form currently with Petrie leading the charge.

    Ryan OKeefe (SYD) M/F 535.7k
    ROK has worked his way back into form recently, averaging 116 over his last 3 games and rewarding those who picked him up on faith. Priced at 535 grand he isn’t the cheapest option going around but on past performances may well be one of the best value ones.

    WAITING LIST

    Tom Bell (CAR) DEF 104.7k *75
    Levi Casboult (CAR) 113.2k *40
    Frazer Dale (CAR) MID 94.7k *17
    Kurt Aylett (GWS) D/M 113.2k *14
    Sam Frost (GWS) DEF 130.7k *72
    Gerald Ugle (GWS) DEF 113.2k *23
    Paul Chapman (GEE) M/F 512.6k -32k
    Joel Selwood (GEE) MID 574.8k -18k
    Todd Goldstein (NM) RUC 490.9k -8k
    Ivan Maric (RIC) RUC 552.9k -21k
    Shane Tuck (RIC) MID 595.3k -10k
    Nick Dal Santo (StK) MID 463.7k -19k
    Adam Goodes (SYD) M/F 461.6k -19k
    Dean Cox (WCE) RUC 623.8k -52k
    Nic Naitanui (WCE) RUC 521.5k -14k
     

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Discussion in 'Blog' started by duncan44, Jul 25, 2012.

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