Best Buys: It Begins

Discussion in 'Blog' started by Iain, Apr 9, 2015.

By Iain on Apr 9, 2015 at 10:00 AM
  1. Iain

    Iain Moderator Staff Member

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    Welcome back to everyone for the new SC season, hopefully so far it's treating you all better than it is me.

    Due to the Monday game and issues with the stats many will have noticed the Best Buys are a bit late this week, and to go with that they're a bit rushed and therefore have a bit less in depth analysis and a bit more opinion. There is no single Best Buy, as this early in the year trades are definitely best saved, however for those really keen for a correction or holding Rocky the Best Buys are still here to offer some options for you. This year there has also been a slight change to the format, with percentage of teams a player is now in listed as opposed to the straight number.





    DEFENSE
    ROOKIES




    [span style='background: #ffffff;]KamdynMcintosh (RIC) DEF 123.9k 120 40.7%

    McIntosh was the saviour for many teams' abysmal defensive scores last week, knocking up 120 in his debut game for the coaches who played him on field. Already in 40.7% of sides he's one of the more popular rookies and for good reason.



    Adam Saad (GCS) D/M 102.4k 89 62.4%

    Saad showed why he's in over 60% of teams in his first regular game in the AFL, scoring a very nice 89 in a shock loss to the Dees. Costing just over 100 grand and set to play plenty of games, if you don't have him already get on at first opportunity.

    MID-PRICERS





    Sam Docherty (CAR) DEF 412.9k 147 0.6%

    Docherty couldn't be left out this week, after scoring a 147 in the season opener. Personally I don't think he'll be able to keep his average over 100 this year but with a start like that anything's possible.



    Jeremy McGovern (WCE) D/F 443.2k 145 1.8%

    McGovern continued on from his outstanding 2014 by racking up a 145 point score against the bulldogs. With the Eagles injury woes he could well be their main KPD for a while this year but that certainly didn't stop him on the weekend.



    Tom McDonald (MEL) DEF 381.1k 125 0.9%

    McDonald is another massive POD, with under 1% of teams selecting him so far. Could really improve his game this year, but I wouldn't be expecting too many 125 point scores from him over the season.



    Jeremy Howe (MEL) DEF 459.1k 119 0.8%

    Howe has been steadily improving over the last few years, and now looks set to take it to the next level. After an interrupted pre-season he played his first game for the year on the weekend, and managed a very nice 119 for his efforts.



    Taylor Hunt (RIC) DEF 290.3k 117 5.4%
    Taylor Hunt had many SCers looking at him over the pre-season, but there was a general consensus that he may play a tagging role for the Tigers. After scoring 117 in the first game that may change for some, but as with all picks this week it's really much better to wait and see how he performs from here.



    PREMIUMS





    Brodie Smith (ADE| DEF 502.8k 144 9%
    Smith continued on with his excellent 2014 form on the weekend, knocking up a huge 144. However the Crows did demolish North, and have plenty of players topping the scoring charts so far, so it will remain to be seen whether he can back up on a regular basis.



    MIDFIELD
    ROOKIES





    Aaron Vandenberg (MEL) MID 127.9k 99 30%

    Vandenberg played well in his debut game, scoring 99 points and looking composed through the midfield. Surprisingly he's only in 30% of sides to date, but you can expect that to change fairly rapidly.



    Isaac Heeney (SYD) MID 137.3k 96 50.6%

    Heeney performed pretty much as everyone expected him to on the weekend, scoring 96 and proving he deserves a place on-field. Gun player, and should make loads of cash.



    Cameron Ellis-Yolmen (ADE) MID 123.9k 78 47.5%
    CEY also performed well in the Crows/North game, albeit somewhat quieter than his pre-season performances. With such a spread of Adelaide players racking up big scores however CEY should have plenty of opportunities to score some monsters when his side is in a real contest.



    MID-PRICERS





    Brad Ebert (PTA) MID 506.7k 142 0.7%

    Ebert has a habit of starting the year on fire, and then dying off somewhat as the season progresses. A huge 142 in the opener is a great starting point either way though, and the less than 1% of teams to have him will be feeling confident that this is the year he can maintain an average of 110.





    Dylan Shiel (GWS) MID 509.4k 136 0.5%

    Shiel performed well against the Saints scoring 136 and a win, but realistically the Saints aren't really renowned for shutting down the opposition. Priced well and in half a percent of sides he offers great POD value.



    Daniel Hannebery (SYD) MID 542.9k 133 1.7%

    Hanners played a good game on the weekend, scoring 133 and showing why he's considered by many as the future of the Swans team. In under 2% of teams so far the question remains whether there will be enough points at Sydney to go around their many stars.



    Daniel Rich (BRI) MID 348.3k 126 29%
    Rich showed the doubters why so many where keen on him in the pre-season last week, scoring 126 in a loss to the Pies. With Rocky out for likely a month at least he should have plenty of opportunities to back up his performance, but many doubts still remain about how often he can top the 100 mark.



    PREMIUMS





    Adam Treloar (GWS MID 577.8k 157 1.3%

    Treloar was a lock for my team during the pre-season, all the way up to the final game where he didn't look convincing. Should have kept him in by the looks of his 157 point score, but hindsight is always a lot clearer. In just over 1% of sides he's looking like an excellent POD early on.



    Jordan Lewis (HAW) MID 588.2k 154 5.5%

    Lewis started the season on fire against the Cats, racking up 154 points and costing me an ORFFL match. Maybe. Either way he's looking great value for his 588 grand price-tag and will likely be an early upgrade choice for many.



    Rory Sloane (ADE) MID 616.9k 145 5.5%
    Sloane continued on from last year belting out 145 points in a dominant Crows display. With Adelaide beating the Roos so comprehensively it is a bit hard to take too much from the game, but all signs are that Sloaney is set for another big season.



    RUCK
    MID-PRICERS





    Mark Blicavs (GEE) M/R 371.9k 99 5.1%

    The ruck was a disaster area in the first weekend of the new season, and nothing proves that more than Blicavs coming in as second highest scorer. 99 points for a price-tag of around 370 grand is pretty good especially considering the other ruck scores, but it'll take a while before the nuances of the new scoring system are evident.



    Matthew Leuenberger (BRI) RUC 358k 96 21.4%

    Leuey also performed well on the weekend, knocking out 96 points and showing why the Lions still consider him first ruck. A cheaper option may be the way to go this year with the diminishing ruck scores, but only time will tell.



    Tom Bellchambers (ESS) R/F 302.5k 82 28.3%
    Bellchambers scored 82 against the Swans, and his R/F eligibility is probably a decent contributor to his 28% selection rate. With this level of scoring he won't set the SC world on fire but he is definitely looking like a good pick when compared to the other rucks going around at this stage.



    PREMIUMS





    Todd Goldstein (NM) RUC 574.4k 100 21.2%
    Goldy was the highest scoring ruckman for round one, hitting 100 points flat. While not really the kind of output you hope for from a near 575 grand player, the fact he's number one so far is a good sign for his coaches.



    FORWARD
    ROOKIES





    Jesse Hogan (MEL) FWD 130.4k 79 52.5%

    Hogan scored well on debut, the fact that the Demons won may have helped, but either way he looked solid and likely to keep getting regular game-time. A score of 79 for a rookie KPF is excellent by all standards, and he should continue to score well and increase in value nicely.



    Mitch Clark (GEE) FWD 155.2k 78 70.1%

    Clark did what most expected him to do, kicking some goals and putting out an SC score of 78. The most popular player so far this year, it's a safe bet the vast majority of TS coaches already have him in.



    Jaden McGrath (BRI) FWD 117.3k 70 5.4%

    McGrath flew under the radar a bit during the pre-season, but a 70 on debut has now brought him to the attention of a fair few coaches. In around 5% of teams he looks likely to be a great earner for his coaches, and will be a strong trade target early on.



    Tom Lamb (WCE) FWD 117.3k 56 25.7%
    Lamb performed reasonably well in his first game, with 56 points in a loss. In around a quarter of teams currently he will look to improve his scoring and should get the game-time to do it in.



    MID-PRICERS





    Taylor Walker (ADE) FWD 430.4k 177 5.6%

    Walker was unstoppable on the weekend, in his first game as captain, marking the ball at will on his way to a massive 177. In only 5% of teams the KPF looks set to explode this year, but as always beware the early-season bolter.



    Eddie Betts (ADE) FWD 426.6k 154 2.1%

    Speaking of early-season bolters, Betts came out firing with a 154 point score in the Crows' belting of the Roos. Priced at just below Tex he probably doesn't have the same appeal for most, and should be watched closely before committing to bringing him into your side.



    Marcus Bontempelli (WBD) M/F 422.3k 126 27%

    The Bont bandwagon picked up a fair bit of steam by the end of the pre-season, and he showed why with a 126 against the Eagles. A star of the future the only real question for most coaches is whether that future starts now.



    Jefferey Garlett (MEL) FWD 259.2k 121 3.4%
    Garlett seems to have made the transition between not-great sides seamlessly, racking up 121 points on debut for the demons and looking lively in the forward line. Costing only 260 grand he offers considerable value, but really needs to work on his consistency before being seen as a likely SC gun.



    PREMIUMS





    Robbie Gray (PTA) M/F 596.9k 122 50.5%
    Gray fired against the Dockers, scoring 122 and showing why he is in over half the teams in the competition. A high starting price for a forward, he certainly has the talent to average 110+ but it will be interesting to see how many hard-tags he cops during the year.



    WAITING LIST



    Everyone


    That's it for this week, good luck to all and hopefully the next round will bring some better scores for a lot of the popular picks. As always for thumb polls and general team talk, join us in the comments section.
     

Comments

Discussion in 'Blog' started by Iain, Apr 9, 2015.

    1. Mad_Mattigan
      Mad_Mattigan
      Thanks for this BB. A great read as always, and if nothing else, a few extra names to add to the watch list...
      I think Sloane may be an early upgrade this year. Not as high profile as some, but he's just so consistent! I think he scored less than 100 only once or twice last year and had several monsters in between.

      Rucks will be an area I'm watching with interest and am seriously considering a mid-price duo...

      What are people's thoughts?
      TU: Switch to the cheaper rucks - there'll be no consistently big ruck scores in 2015.
      TD: Round 1 was an aberration! The scores and value of the premo rucks will be the way to go.
    2. Bucko
      Bucko
      Very hard to tell at this stage. The ruck scores will be very interesting this week and if they continue on the same trend I'm sure alot of coaches will be downgrading to make some cash
    3. ARC
      ARC
      Think I'll give my set'n'forget rucks another week
    4. ARC
      ARC
      Got my eye on T Hunt, interested in thoughts about his potential future scoring

      J Lewis might by my 1st upgrade (and I don't have GAJ)
    5. Tomster
      Tomster
      I think everybody should be holding trades at this stage, and the only reason trades should be used if more than 2 correction trades are needed. Rather than use one this week and one next week, save them both for next week, giving you an extra chance to look at players. I think this is especially true for the rucks - who knows if the low scores of Round 1 were due the changes or simply a bad week for ruckmen?

      Also, good pick up on Sloane's consistency. Just had a look at his stats for last year - he dipped under 100 only 3 times in 22 matches and scored above 135 in 4 matches! His high scores were against bad teams, Brisbane, STK, GC and GWS for example, but his low scores were also against bottom 10 sides, in Carlton, Essendon and Collingwood. Another case for him as an upgrade option is he from Round 11 to the end of last year he averaged 118.7 and dipped below 100 only once.

      I think I may have just convinced myself on my next upgrade target :D
    6. Tomster
      Tomster
      Cheers BB. Was hoping Best Buys would be back!
    7. HotPiesColdDrinks
      HotPiesColdDrinks
      I'm kind of annoyed that I had Sloane up until the night before round 1 and decided I would bring Ablett back in.
      I had a choice to kick out Fyfe, Selwood, Sloane or Griffen and I chose Sloane. At the moment, I feel like I should have removed Griffen and found the money elsewhere on the ground for Ablett. I have Pendlebury but he was going no where.
      Only round 1, but at the moment, I really wish I held onto Sloane :(
    8. TopHeavy
      TopHeavy
      Great work again BB
    9. stowie
      stowie
      Made the same move on the Friday, got cold feet on leaving out the Little Master. Long season though so can't call it right or wrong yet.
    10. stripey
      stripey
      I just read some Champion data stats that said ball-ups were down on the weekend from 25 to 20 per game, additionally it was the lowest scoring opening round since 1995 which if I were to try and draw conclusions from could also (in addition to the change in ruck scoring) explain the reduction in points for ruckmen last week. Across the ground they had less ball-ups and due to low numbers of goals being scored had less centre bounces too... would be it be enough to make a difference, who knows.
    11. anthak
      anthak
      Thanks for this Stripey. Interesting
    12. PHIL
    13. boydshow
      boydshow
      Tom Lamb got dropped but the other rookies listed are must haves, bring them in this week or next

      Take the rest with a grain of salt, for instance I highly doubt those 5 defensive mid-priced options will be over 115 again next week. Brodie Smith the premium option is a solid choice, but I would look at Gibson, Simpson or Burgoyne before the others

      In the middle Lewis, Rich or Parker - he was leading Kennedy, Jack & Hannebery up until he got KO'd and their scores are inflated from after he left the ground and the game got close

      In the ruck Goldstein (100 in a 10 goal loss), Naitanui (92 in a loss) & Leuenberger (96 in a loss at $350k).

      Up forward Swan, Bonts, Gray & Dahlhaus
    14. TerryinBangkok
      TerryinBangkok
      Welcome back BB. Missed ya.
    15. Micksdemons
      Micksdemons
      Great write up BB thanks not sure about Rich yet and Sloane is a lock if your smart enough to have him and Garlett is massive unders at mid 2's !! - Dont trade this week is clearly the big winner !!!!
    16. port_leschenault
      port_leschenault
      Did Lamb really have that bad a game to get dropped completely?
    17. anthak
      anthak
      Lamb started as sub, so he was probably already on the fringe.
    18. Jason
      Jason
      Not a bad game from him, unlucky.
    19. stripey
      stripey
      yeah, i agree maybe it is just the 6 day break combined with his first interstate game that cost him the spot

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