Welcome once again to the Best Buys

This week sees a fair few rookie options on the bubble, and for those who resisted the double-downgrade last week, some decent opportunites to get in some fresh meat. Defense in particular has a few guys worth looking at, which with some of the defensive cash-cows already getting close to their peak it is perfectly timed. For those that did opt for the double-downgrade this week sees the ideal time to bring a couple of heavy-hitters to replenish the premium stocks and hopefully get that nice points boost that were all looking for.

My tip for the week is Stevie J, who is looking to have regained some form and fitness and is currently bargain priced. The Cats run from here does still have some pretty challenging sections but they usually have an easy game or two in between the tougher ones. With Tomahawk drawing more attention up froward Stevie J should get loose a bit more and also spend more time through the midfield. He is definitely a gamble, but one that on prior form has paid off many times over the years.

I know the "I was a bit rushed this week" line must be getting a bit old now but hopefully this week I have at least a reasonably good excuse, so as always feel free to let me know of any mistakes I have made or issues I have missed. Its always great to hear your thoughts.

So grab a coffee (or lunch now as the case may be) and join me over the break for the full Best Buys and some comments and thumbs action.

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The Best Buys uses a mix of price, form, break-evens and projected salaries to assess the Best Buys of each round. These are essentially the players that represent the best “value” which is determined by the above factors. Some player will not be mentioned on here even if they are playing well, as value is the key for this article. If a player is averaging 110, which is certainly solid, but priced at an average of 112 then they will not be rated. This does not mean these players should be avoided or not picked due to this, but simply that they aren’t as good “value” as the others in the Best Buys. For all the player I’ve missed, and any more you’re wanting opinions on, the thumbs are always there.

The thumbs act as a polling tool for the TS community, if you pose a question with either a yes-no answer or a “thumbs-up X, thumbs down Y” in there then the community as a whole can give you some great feedback into your choices and what they think about it, while also catering to the lazy amongst them that can’t be bothered actually typing out a response.

The “Waiting List” section at the end of the article shows players who are looking like being great buys but for whatever reason will be better looked at in the coming weeks rather than this one. In the case of the first few names on the list this is because they have only played one game (indicated by the * next to their single game score) and you will have one more week to assess them, having only played one match they do not have a salary prediction either, for the others on the list it is usually because they will be decreasing in value this round based on current predictions and could be picked up cheaper the next week. Some players on the Waiting List will not make the next Best Buys, due to only a small decrease in price etc, and so it is something you should keep an eye on regularly. The Waiting List also includes a projected salary drop over the next round for each player.


DEFENSE
ROOKIES
Cam Delaney (NM) DEF 113.3k
Young Cam has looked pretty good so far in his 2 games for North, averaging 68 ppg (points per game) and he should see a decent price rise after his next outing with a break-even of -67. Not guaranteed game time but probably as safe as most other rookies on the bubble.

Jacob Brennan (WCE) DEF 113.2k
Brennan is still a bit of an unknown quantity, averaging a respectable 67 ppg so far. Mistakenly entered as a GWS rookie he has now been restored to his rightful place in the WCE back-line. Strong interest in him pre-season and as he has only knocked up the 2 games so far and should see a good price rise after his next one.

Lee Spurr (FRE) DEF 116.7k
Spurr has been on a few radars since the pre-season, and now that he looks to be getting some game-time he could well be a decent cash-cow option. Playing for Lyin will mean he still has some uncertainty around him but with a break-even of -49 and an average of 60 he should go up around 50 grand after his next game.

Beau Wilkes (StK) DEF 106.6k
Beau has looked pretty solid for the Sainters, averaging 44 over his first 2 games, and should see a reasonable price rise. JS could be an issue however after the Saints performance against the Blues, with a few of the young rookies putting in blinders. I haven’t heard a great deal about this kid but he seems to go alright so far.

MID-PRICERS
Alex Rance (RIC) DEF 474.9k
Rance just keeps on keeping on, averaging 102 over the year and consistently showing up in the Best Buys as great value for money. Many still won’t give him a look due to the byes but he’ll be a great POD and even a possible upgrade post round 13. Still rising in price but one could expect him to remain within 50k of current price for the rest of the season.

PREMIUMS
Brendon Goddard (StK) D/M 504.9k
Goddard appears to have now bottomed out, coming in at just over 500 grand. Averaging 107 for the year to date and consistently one of the best defenders in SC over a few years, he has to be considered and should end up in all teams. He has been tagged pretty hard in recent games and while this could be a worrying trend he still managed a good output against the Blues.

Heath Shaw (COL) DEF 530.2k
Heater is bouncing back from a slow start to the year, and has managed to bump up his average to over 100 (105). His price is now on the rise and he should see an increase of around 15 grand this week, which whilst not a deal-breaker every bit counts in this game. As long as he can avoid stupid bets, or stupidity in general, he should be a solid defender and crack the top echelon.

Heath Scotland (CAR) D/M 528k
Scotland is in a pretty similar situation to Shaw currently, a slow start to the season which is now starting to build. Averaging only 101 with a break-even of 133 he should lose some value this week but not so much as to make it worthwhile holding off on the upgrade. Should remain a top defender this season and Carlton will need to improve from here to remain competitive.

MIDFIELD
ROOKIES
Liam Sumner (GWS) MID 151.6k
Sumner is another GWS rookie starting to break into the squad, and after averaging 58 in his first 2 games has done a decent job of it. Interestingly Sheeds’ resting policy has probably been the saviour of a lot of GNR focussed squads and hopefully he will continue to fatten up the cows at a decent rate for us. Priced a little higher than other rookies Sumner may be left out by a lot of coaches, as most midfields are starting to look to completion rather than cash generation, but could be a valuable POD during byes.

MID-PRICERS
Callan Ward (GWS) MID 499.5k
Ward has been good for the Giants early, averaging 107 in a team that has consistently been smashed (apart from against GCS anyway). The young Giants are developing well and a key to this has been their hard at the ball attitude and tackling pressure, with Ward helping to lead the way. With Sheeds trying to keep his young charges fit and firing it is safe to expect that Ward will continue to play most games and lead from the front. At just under 500 grand he is still underpriced but many will avoid him over doubts around his ability to maintain a high output. One to watch.

PREMIUMS
Brent Stanton (ESS) MID 605.9k
Stanton has clearly turned a corner. Averaging a massive 137 so far this year and scoring an all-time DT high score, he is quickly becoming a must have. Thanks to his bye situation this year he can safely be seen as a POD, and so far with his averages he has been a perfect one for those that have him. A break-even of just 53 means he will continue his sharp price rise and on his average next week will likely be around $640 grand. If you can fit him into your structure then now is a great time for it.

Jobe Watson (ESS) MID 588.1k
Jobe has had a stand-out year this year, and after being early Brownlow favourite last season before going down to injury it’s easy to see why. Averaging a very healthy 124 so far, and still priced under 600 grand, he is the reason a lot of people have ignored Stanton so far. His bye again is an issue but his quality is not. One of Jobe or Stanton is surely getting close to a lock now for all.

Scott Selwood (WCE) MID 550.3k
Scooter has kept on with his great early form, averaging 117 ppg and still sitting at around 550 grand. As injuries continue to decimate the Eagles the remaining players they have standing will surely have to take up the slack for some of the new kids. With less tagging options around Scooter may well see himself back to predominantly tagging roles, but his talent should still see him keep a healthy average. Great POD option, and useful bye.

RUCK
ROOKIES
Exactly the same as last week.
Big O 106.6k / Redden 171.3k / Longer 161.6k
The 3 rookie rucks on the bubble can all safely be grouped together I feel, as each have dodgy job security but are looking like the best downgrades. Redden has played three but is still cheap enough to consider, but all 3 are quite risky and should only be viewed as a potential back-up for byes.

MID-PRICERS
Ivan Maric (RIC) RUC 485.1k
The mullet has continued to impress this season, averaging 102 and for a mid-priced punt has done very well. Clearly the number 1 ruck over Graham now he has a break-even of just 49 and should continue to rise in value. The Tigers early draw has been tough for them but they have an easier run from here out. Definitely worth a look and only 80-odd grand more than Giles.

PREMIUMS
Paddy Ryder (ESS) RUC 511.4k
Ryder is in great form this season, with the Bombers improvements certainly not hurting, and has so far averaged a very tidy 114. Second only in the rucks to Sandi so far, and getting more games than he is, Ryder has been an inspired pick and can hopefully maintain this form. A break-out star on the rise Ryder should definitely be considered by anyone still with a ruck upgrade to make.

Nic Naitanui (WCE) RUC 519.6k
NicNats recent injury and subsequent missed games have seen Cox flourish as R1 once again for the Eagles, but his return should see him eat into that particular pie once more. Woosha has so far appeared to want to slowly transfer the rucking duties to NicNat and ease Coxy into the forward line more, so if this continues then he should remain a top ruckman this year.

FORWARD
ROOKIES
Ahmed Saad (StK) FOR 124.7k
Saad was impressive in his most recent outing against Carlton, slotting a few nice goals and showing off his pace. Saad would be unlucky to be dropped this week after that performance, and win, and should have decent JS for the short term at least. An average of 55 means he will have a decent value increase after his next match and could be a good downgrade option.

Tory Dickson (WBD) FOR 157.7k
Dickson is now starting to make amends with his coaches for missing out the start of the year after impressing in the NAB, but unfortunately for a lot a bit too late. Many coaches have already traded him out, and his limited JS may mean he won’t be traded back in by many. If no other options appeal then he could be a decent option but coaches should be wary of his game-time so far.

MID-PRICERS
Stuart Crameri (ESS) FOR 474.4k
Crameri has been up and down so far, and failed to really live up to his hype pre-season. After a couple of good games he is averaging 101 ppg so far and should see a price rise of around 10 grand this week. One to keep an eye on, along with Zaha, but the bye situation again will come into play here with Sidey, Beams etc also demanding a look in the forward line. Slightly ahead of Zaha for mine, but that could easily change over the next week or two.

Stevie Johnson (GEE) FOR 471.7k
Stevie J looks to have bottomed out, and has also started to improve. Averaging over 100 in his last two games, including a reasonable loss to the Crows, his 2011 Grand Final injury woes seem to be healing up well. Has been seen as a “downhill skier” by a few for a while now but looks to be improving his form nicely now. Obviously still some associated risks.

PREMIUMS
Lance Franklin (HAW) FOR 534.1k
Buddy is still one of the top forwards in SC, even after a 3.7 output on Friday against the Dees. He is averaging 112 so far and if he can work on improving his kicking a bit more then he should be a real force to be reckoned with. Almost all teams will have him so if he continues on his current form he will hurt those without. At only 534 grand he is a bargain for a player of his talents.

Steele Sidebottom (COL) M/F 548k
Sidey continues on the up, amassing a very nice 150+ over the weekend, and will be a favoured upgrade target from the last week and for this one. Daisys return could see his numbers affected but most pundits are tipping this to affect Beams more than Sidey. Beams is still a viable alternative but again Sidey edges him out for mine.

Patrick Dangerfield (ADE) M/F 528.8k
Dangermouse appears to not be letting the speculation over his contract and the hype around being generated by it affect his game so far to date, and is still averaging a healthy 105. His break-even is 104 this week so this should see him remain at about his current value for another week, and some will choose to hold off to see how he performs against the Blues this weekend and a possible hard tag. His contested play style means he should still get decent numbers in wins or losses, but his efficiency may be an issue.

Jordan Lewis (HAW) M/F 512k
Lewis is impressing many this season, with good averages and a hard-at-it style of play through the guts, and is closing in on a top forward spot for the season. Averaging 104 and with a break-even of 103 he shouldn’t see much of a change this week but with the Hawks playing Freo down in Tassie I can’t see why those interested in him would wait. Essentially a mid also classed as a forward he should remain good value all year.

Jarryd Roughead (HAW) R/F 515.3k
Roughy is still travelling along pretty well after his Achilles injury last season, and so far seems to have gotten over it admirably. Spending a decent amount of time in the ruck he has looked comfortable with the rigours of rucking and his leg seems fine so far. Added benefit of being R/F eligible means he could offer some much needed support over the byes, as long as another swing-man is used to facilitate the swap. Probably won’t be a top ruck this season but has a decent shot at being a top forward. Consider your bye strategy, and then look strongly at Roughie.

WAITING LIST

Dayne Zorko (BRI) M/F 113.2k 16*
Josh Jenkins (ADE) RUC 113.2k 80*
Gary Ablett Jnr (GCS) MID 721.9k -16k
Luke Hodge (HAW) MID 577.2k -58k
Matt Priddis (WCE) MID 503.5k -45k
Tom Rockliff (BRI) MID 580.6k -37k
Marc Murphy (CAR) MID 570.5k -32k
Todd Goldstein (NM) RUC 443.6k -29k
Michael Barlow (FRE) MID 455.1k -15k
Ryan O’Keefe (SYD) M/F 446.1k -14k
Nick Dal Santo (StK) MID 505.6k -26k

Alright I think thats probably enough from me for this week, so good luck to all in the following round and Ill see you in the comments.