Hi all.

Best buys comes to you this week from about halfway along the central midlands of Tasmania, and as you probably noticed there was a bit of a delay in getting it up this week. This was mainly due to me going away for a couple of nights and forgetting my modem, so I’ve had to drive 200k to come home and press the “publish” button. So my apologies for the tardiness, and for the rushed Best Buys.

This week sees the start of the bye rounds, and will require some sound planning and plenty of luck to emerge from unscathed. At the moment all I can really say on this is good luck to all and personally Ill be copping a few donuts for the sake of saving some trades over these byes, and I reckon I wont be alone. Everyone else should please ignore my poor example and feel free to discuss bye-round trades and strategies in depth in the comments.

After a massive weekend of footy last round there are some interesting options emerging, and a lot of surprise results. The forwards went big, and some of our mainstays didn’t.

My tip for the week this week, is one Travis Cloke. He’s a big risk looking at his numbers so far this season, but if you’ve seen his current price also then I’m sure you’ll be aware of the massive reward there also. Collingwood will need to finish the season strongly this year, as they have not shown the same dominance of years previous, and Cloke looks to be the man to lead them to it. As Sidey and Beams pick up more taggers hopefully it allows Cloke off the leash a little more later in the season, and results in some nice points for his coaches.

Again my apologies for the briefness of this weeks article, and I hope it can still be of good use to many. I’ll see you over the break.


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As I was reminded of the bye round teams this week are ADE, BRI, GWS, NM, WCE and WB, so do NOT trade players from these teams into your team unless you have coverage. Great options for next week though.

INFO

The Best Buys uses a mix of price, form, break-evens and projected salaries to assess the Best Buys of each round. These are essentially the players that represent the best “value” which is determined by the above factors. Some player will not be mentioned on here even if they are playing well, as value is the key for this article. If a player is averaging 110, which is certainly solid, but priced at an average of 112 then they will not be rated. This does not mean these players should be avoided or not picked due to this, but simply that they aren’t as good “value” as the others in the Best Buys. For all the player I’ve missed, and any more you’re wanting opinions on, the thumbs are always there.

The thumbs act as a polling tool for the TS community, if you pose a question with either a yes-no answer or a “thumbs-up X, thumbs down Y” in there then the community as a whole can give you some great feedback into your choices and what they think about it, while also catering to the lazy amongst them that can’t be bothered actually typing out a response.

The “Waiting List” section at the end of the article shows players who are looking like being great buys but for whatever reason will be better looked at in the coming weeks rather than this one. In the case of the first few names on the list this is because they have only played one game (indicated by the * next to their single game score) and you will have one more week to assess them, having only played one match they do not have a salary prediction either, for the others on the list it is usually because they will be decreasing in value this round based on current predictions and could be picked up cheaper the next week. Some players on the Waiting List will not make the next Best Buys, due to only a small decrease in price etc, and so it is something you should keep an eye on regularly. The Waiting List also includes a projected salary drop over the next round for each player.

DEFENSE
ROOKIES
Sam Shaw (ADE) DEF 113.2k
Shaw is a rookie on the bubble this round, with a solid average of 74 and a break-even of -79 he should make some very nice moneys after his next game. Job security may well be an issue as he has only just played his second match for the year, but he looks set to take advantage whenever the opportunity arises.

MID-PRICERS
Michael Johnson (FRE) D/F 479.5k
MJ has been looked at a few times this season, and is starting to become an appealing prospect. Averaging 96 for the year his MPP (multi-position player) status could provide a great link for those with a Smedts type in their forward or defensive lines. Lyin is not a coach to be trusted however, and may well scare off many potential MJ recruiters.

Troy Chaplin (PTA) DEF 461.2k
Chaplin has had a consistently good season so far this year, averaging 95 ppg in a side that has often struggled. Priced at around 450 grand he is definitely quite cheap, and if Port can win a few more games and move the ball around a bit better he could be a great POD option.

PREMIUMS
Brendon Goddard (StK) D/M 523.2k
Goddard has been fairly inconsistent this season, by his standards, but due to his large games being quite large he has managed to keep his average up at 107. Priced a little over 500 grand he is still one of the best defenders going around, and almost everyone already has him.

Beau Waters (WCE) DEF 528.7k
Big Beau is becoming a Best Buys regular this year, continuing to rack up decent scores and put his less consistent counterparts to shame. Priced at a little over 500 grand he is still relatively cheap and looks to be a great pick-up.

MIDFIELD
ROOKIES
Marley Williams (COL) MID 94.7k
Williams is one of two Collingwood rookies on the bubble this round, and both are coming off big second matches after poor first games. An average of 64 and a break-even of -71 show that he could be a decent cash-cow option but only if he continues to get games. Collingwood haven’t been the best team for playing the youngsters this season.

MID-PRICERS
Matthew Broadbent (PTA) MID 476k
Broadbent appears to have hit a purple-patch of form heading into the middle of the season, after a couple of quality games his break-even is now sitting on a very health 12 and he may well break the 500 grand mark this weekend. If Port continue to win then he could be a very astute selection, but many are tipping this to be a short lived stretch. One of the few mid-priced options with the potential to score big if he suits your structure then he is definitely one to consider.

Hamish Hartlett (PTA) MID 442.5k
Hartlett is another mid-priced Port Adelaide midfielder, and has been threatening to break out for a couple of years now however a shocking run with injuries has always managed to hold him back. So far this season he is averaging a decent 96 ppg, but has proven that he has the potential so go substantially bigger. Still priced at under 450 grand he could be a great buy, or even a decent semi-upgrade.

Matt Priddis (WCE) MID 464.5k
Priddis has had a couple of minor injuries this season, the most recent of which dropping his price to an incredible 464 grand. He is an absolute steal at this price and his break-even of just 32 this round shows he has bottomed out, and if he can kee up his usual form over the rest of the season will be a great pick-up.

PREMIUMS
Kieren Jack (SYD) MID 545.7k
Kieren Jack has also hit a purple-patch of form, averaging a massive 142 over the last 3 rounds and a respectable 106 for the rest of the season. He may now be coming of age and with many coaches already opting for two of JPK, Watson, Stanton, Pendles, Selwood and Swan could be a great POD. He has been inconsistent but is certainly capable of turning it on.

Gary Ablett Jnr (GCS) MID 685.1k
Gazza is still Gazza, smashing out big scores even when not really making an impact. A record-equalling 53 possessions over the weekend demonstrate why he is still the dominant force in SC. He has now dropped to 685 grand and going on his pricing so far this year he may not get far below that again. With a lot of consistently large-scoring midfielders going around this year he may not be the “must-have” that he once was but can not be overlooked.

Jobe Watson (ESS) MID 598.3k
Jobe has been the Bombers number one man this season, and for good reason. Watson must be responsible, at least in part, for the emergence of Stanton as a leading midfielder as he generally takes the hard tags but still manages to make an impact. Quality disposal is highly rated these days in the AFL and Watson certainly has that. Priced at just under 600 grand he is on the higher end of his pricing spectrum but not greatly.

Sam Mitchell (HAW) MID 525.2k
SMitch is looking dirt cheap at the moment. The Hawks have been a bit of an enigma this season, and the weekends results certainly didn’t do much to clear things up, but they will now be looking at a strong run home to consolidate their pre-season flag favouritism. Hodge out hasn’t helped but if anyone can cover his absence it’s SMitch. Still averaging 110 this season he is a proven scorer and a great POD this year.

Nick Dal Santo (StK) MID 506.4k
NDS shamed me last week, with his poor score making a mockery of my weekly tip. Hopefully, as had happened in the rounds prior, his score will pick up this week and show that I’m not a complete Muppet. Hopefully. Averaging 104 for the season and priced at around 500 grand his form-line from last season indicates that he could explode soon, and if so will be a great pick-up while cheap. Still a risk, as proven last round, but possibly a worthy one.

RUCK
MID-PRICERS
Robbie Warnock (CAR) RUC 467.4k
Warnock has made a successful return from injury pre-season, and is now averaging 106 over his games this season. The Carlton ruck set-up will remain a mystery, probably even to Carlton, and may have some effect on his scoring but from seeing him ton up on the weekend by seemingly randomly slapping at the ball I’d suggest he will remain a solid scorer. If Carlton can turn their shocking recent form around he may even pull out some big ones.

PREMIUMS
NicNat (WCE) RUC 515.8k
NicNat has continued to show that he is now the clear number one ruckman at the Eagles. Cox has had some good form recently, mainly with NicNat out of the squad, but is spending considerably more time forward than in years past. If this trend continues then NicNat will likely be in the top ruckmen come years end, and his 106 average shows why.

Ivan Maric (RIC) RUC 582.3k
The Mullet has been a dominant force in the SC world this year, averaging 111 and revitalising a struggling Tigers outfit. His acquisition over the off-season has been a masterstroke for Richmond, turning one of their weaknesses into something of a strength. If he can keep up his form he will be a great SC pick-up, and as Richmonds draw improves one could hope that Marics numbers will too.

Paddy Ryder (ESS) RUC 523.7k
Paddy has kept his good early-season form going into the middle of the year, and is averaging an impressive 112 for the season. Clearly his break-out year (to date) he has been consistently in the best rucks most weeks. Still seen by many as a risk, and quite possibly reliant on the Bombers good recent from, in my eyes he has proven himself as a capable SC option. The much discussed Essendon 3-ruck set-up appears to have been trimmed.

FORWARD
ROOKIES
Jamie Elliott (COL) FWD 106.6k
Jamie Elliott is the other Pie on the bubble this week, and will come into contention for quite a few teams after a good performance over the weekend. As with Williams his JS is sure to be an issue, but so far this season, whose hasn’t?

MID-PRICERS
Drew Petrie (NM) FWD 472.2k
Droopy has had a poor year so far, after the heights of his 2011 SC scoring, and as such his price has seen a decent drop-off. Averaging only 89 for the season he is definitely a risk this year, but one that could pay off. North will be looking to regain some respect after their drubbing at the hands of one Buddy over the weekend and Droopy will be expected to lead from the front. Can have some big games, but also some shockers.

Travis Cloke (COL) FWD 387.8k
Has anyone else seen Clokes price?! Sure, he may be spudding it up a bit this season, but for under 390 grand his potential is absolutely massive. The Pies will need Cloke firing before the finals, and the idea that one could almost straight-swap a GWS rookie for him has some serious appeal. It’ll be touch and go as to whether he lifts his form and elevates himself back into the leading forwards, but if he can at this price he really can’t be missed. Just make sure you’re confident in him!

Jack Riewoldt (RIC) FWD 452.3k
JRoo has cause a bit of grief for his coaches so far this season, managing to average only 89 ppg (points per game), but had a massive weekend and hopefully could now be turning his form around. Many coaches were considering trading him but his price is tipped to rise by almost 60 grand this week so he looks to be best held for a while yet.

PREMIUMS
Paul Chapman (GEE) M/F 552k
Chappy continues to confound the nay-sayers, averaging 108 this season, when he possibly has no business doing so. An aging player with dodgy hammies many expected Chappy to fall ina heap this year, but are still waiting. Geelong has fallen so far, but the likes of Chappy, Stevie J and Abrtel getting into gear is surely a good sign in Geelong.


Nick Riewoldt (StK) FWD 506k
Roo has been serviceable this season, after a much maligned 2011, and has clawed his way back into the better forwards for SC bracket. Averaging a decent 102 at around 500 grand he should certainly be considered, but can’t be expected to deliver the Roo scores of old.

Patrick Dangerfield (ADE) M/F 592.9k
DangerMouse has been in great form this season, averaging 114 even after a couple of poor outings. His price is on the high-side of its range but if you feel his form will continue then don’t let that put you off. Along with Adelaide one of this seasons big improvers, which the draw can only help, and making many people start to query Neil Craigs credentials. It will also be interesting to see whether his recent re-signing with Adelaide affects his game. Should lose around 10 grand this week, if he hits his yearly average.

Stevie J (GEE) FWD 535.7k
Stevie J has certainly had a form turn-around now, stringing together a few solid games and helping his average up to almost 100 ppg. On current form he is clearly one of the best forwards in the game after overcoming a bad injury last year for the grand final, and the resultant slow start to this season. Definitely one to consider and could be a great POD as more coaches lean towards Sidey/Beams.

Dayne Beams (COL) M/F 564.2k
Beams continues to flourish in Swannies absence, and after another solid game over the weekend is sitting on an average of 107 and a price of around 565 grand. His role may change again on Swans return but his scoring prior to Swans injury certainly wasn’t shocking either. A solid choice for your forward line and the Pies should only improve from here on in the run to the finals.

THE WAITING LIST
Scott Pendlebury (COL) MID 620.4k -18k
Brent Stanton (ESS) MID 602.5k -32k
Scott Thompson (ADE) MID 591.8k -40k
Steele Sidebottom (COL) M/F 582.8k -13k