Welcome once again to the Best Buys.

This week I had a big spiel about Fyfe ready to go but as the week has gone on it is looking more and more likely that he will play. Whether that means people will trade him or not is a different matter, which again I will leave entirely up to your fine selves. What we do have however, is a brief breakdown on each of the Best Buys for this week, and the thumbs gallery for all your trading needs, and all just over the break.

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The Best Buys uses a mix of price, form, break-evens and projected salaries to assess the Best Buys of each round. These are essentially the players that represent the best “value” which is determined by the above factors. Some player will not be mentioned on here even if they are playing well, as value is the key for this article. If a player is averaging 110, which is certainly solid, but priced at an average of 112 then they will not be rated. This does not mean these players should be avoided or not picked due to this, but simply that they aren’t as good “value” as the others in the Best Buys. For all the player I’ve missed, and any more you’re wanting opinions on, the thumbs are always there.

The thumbs act as a polling tool for the TS community, if you pose a question with either a yes-no answer or a “thumbs-up X, thumbs down Y” in there then the community as a whole can give you some great feedback into your choices and what they think about it, while also catering to the lazy amongst them that can’t be bothered actually typing out a response.

This week I have introduced a “Waiting List” section to the end of the article. This shows players who are looking like being great buys but for whatever reason will be better looked at in the coming weeks rather than this one. In the case of the first few names on the list this is because they have only played one game (indicated by the * next to their single game score) and you will have one more week to assess them, having only played one match they do not have a salary prediction either, for the others on the list it is usually because they will be decreasing in value this round based on current predictions and could be picked up cheaper the next week. Some players on the Waiting List will not make the next Best Buys, due to only a small decrease in price etc, and so it is something you should keep an eye on regularly. The Waiting List also includes a projected salary drop over the next round for each player.

Due to the fact that its early on in the season and most of the rookies have already had at least one price rise there will be very few rookies in the article this week. If you need to downgrade then these are the best value choices but that isnt to say you cant trade into someone who has had one rise if you expect them to still make you 150k+.

Now onto the Best Buys.

DEFENSE
ROOKIES

Adam Tomlinson (GWS) D/F 156.6k
Tomlinson has shown some decent form in the 2 GWS smashings he’s played in, and is likely to be a decent slow burning cow. One of 3 D/F rookies to have only played 2 games, and therefore not risen in price yet, as the most expensive of the trio may be behind the other two.

Jackson Paine (COL) D/F 106.6k
Paine was dropped last week from the Pies losing side, and due to the nature of the game could well see a recall this week. A break-even of -22 means he will make money but long term job security will remain an issue. Bucks will be having a long hard think about structures this week.

Billie Smedts (GEE) D/F 113.2k
Smedts is sure to get a recall this week after Geelong’s losing effort on the weekend to North Melbourne. With a -19 break-even he should be a good slow burner and is just starting to learn his role in the Cats side.

MID-PRICERS

Shannon Hurn (WCE) DEF 463k
West Coast has been a mid-price machine so far this season, with a number of young players ripping it up across the board. Hurn is one of these, playing a sweeping half-back role and getting plenty of the ball, if he can keep this role and average going he will be a great defensive POD this year.

Alex Rance (RIC) DEF 478.4k
Rance has looked a new player under Dimma, playing with a lot more confidence and freedom and his SC scores have responded accordingly. Averaging 109 over the first 3 games for the Tigers, including the Carlton/Collingwood double, he has scored well in losses and his 95 odd in the only win still promising. Does have the downside of shared byes with Carlton and St Kilda though.

Michael Hibberd (ESS) DEF 424.1k
Hibberd has continued to impress this season after a solid NAB Cup and is still one of the higher scoring defenders. Essendon have got a tough couple of weeks coming but that could bode well for the scoring of its defenders. Averaging 99 so far a definite POD that could hold his own as D6/7 end of year with his current output.

PREMIUMS

Brendon Goddard (StK) DEF 588.1k
After a pre-season of doubts Goddard has come out and proved the haters wrong once again. Averaging 122 not only is he the most expensive defender in SC but if he holds his average he will actually increase in price this round. Looks set for a huge year and could be costly to those without him.

Brett Deledio (RIC) D/M 571.2k
Lids has also proved the doubters wrong, myself included, after almost no pre-season he is averaging 118 and will rise by around 10 grand in value this round. A legitimate gun and actually playing more midfield time (instead of just being talked up to do so pre-season) he looks set to improve his already impressive output this year.

Andrew Carrazzo (CAR) D/M 515.5k
Carrots played an absolute blinder last week, essentially tagging Pendles out of the game and racking up 29 disposals and 11 clearances in the process. He is averaging 110 so far this season and as a D/M could be a very handy pick up, but again shares byes with St Kilda and Richmond.

MIDFIELD
MID-PRICERS

Scott Selwood (WCE) MID 503.8k
Scooter has smashed it early on in the year, averaging 135 and has already increased in value by around 50 grand. He has played against GWS, Melbourne and the Bulldogs which means it is unclear how well he will go against a stronger midfield where he may be required to tag as previously, but the next few weeks will be a great barometer for the Eagles and Selwood in particular.

Chris Masten (WCE) MID 376.3k
Masten is another young Eagles MID who has impressed early on, averaging a good 113 under 400k he presents some decent value. Questions remain over his ability to become a top midfielder this year SC-wise but could be a good POD.

Callan Ward (GWS) MID 508.1k
Ward has so far been impressive in the GWS midfield, with little support he has taken on the role of main ball-getter and has put up good numbers as a result. Averaging 117 so far in some heavy defeats Ward looks like he could be benefitting from the lack of talent taking points around him. GAJ last year after a slow start racked up huge numbers, so it will be interesting to see if it was just GAJ being awesome or whether the lead midfielder in the expansion teams gets a big boost.

Michael Barlow (FRE) MID 440.8k
Barlow has been the sub twice so far, and this has seen a decent price drop from him, whilst nothing huge he is projected to lose another 7 grand or so but that is based on his current average of 83 which he should exceed. Early form suggest he is getting back to his best and could be a steal at 440 grand. For those looking to trade out Fyfe and can switch for a MID he is a great like-for-like option for less.

Lenny Hayes (StK) MID 453.3k
Lenny has been solid so far this year, surprising a few people with his output after his injury last season. His average of 110 is good, especially for someone around 450 grand, and if he can keep it up will be a bargain.

PREMIUMS

Jobe Watson (ESS) MID 590.9k
Jobe has shown why he was the early Brownlow favourite last season before his injuries, averaging 129 over the early going. Looking like rising around 20 grand this week this may well be the only time he is under 600 grand this year.

Josh P Kennedy (SYD) MID 552.1k
JPK has continued on his form from the first game and is looking to be a great pick-up this year if he can keep it going long term. Averaging 130 he is a contested ball specialist and ticks all the SC boxes.

Chris Judd (CAR) MID 624.4k
Juddy amazingly enough could be a good POD this season. Priced highly at around 625 grand many chose Marc Murphy over him, and probably rightly so, but after a slightly slower start Judd has really fired up in the last couple of games. Averaging 126 over the first 3 games and looking likely to rise another 10 grand in price this round Juddy is still all class.

Brent Stanton (ESS) MID 573.1k
Stanton has been racking up big number so far this year, averaging a massive 136 to date. Despite constant doubts about his ability to maintain his form he keeps putting up good numbers, but will be sorely tested over the next couple of rounds. If he can keep his scoring level constant over the year he will be over 600 grand within a few weeks.

Marc Murphy (CAR) MID 642.1k
Smurph has showed why he is now considered the number one midfielder at Carlton, averaging 132 over the early games and showing great form. At a similar price to Judd he is the more popular choice and his number show why, also an incredibly consistent player getting him in early should be a priority for those without.

Trent Cotchin (RIC) MID 554.5k
The Cotch is a great POD option this year, and so far has been outscoring Martin by near 40 points a game. Granted he is only available as a midfielder but his average of 118 early has proven him to be a good early pick.

Luke Shuey (WCE) MID 534.4k
Shuey has looked like breaking out for a while now, and going by his early average of 121 may finally be doing so. Part of the WCE mid-priced brigade starting the season his average and price rise has seen him reach premium status, the question remains however of whether he can keep this up for long.

RUCK
MID-PRICERS

Hamish McIntosh (NM) RUC 400.2k
HMac has so far been the clear victor in the Kangas 2 ruck combo in 2012. Averaging 101 points early on at the expense of Goldy’s output if he can maintain this form he will be a good R2 choice this year. Due to Goldy’s poor scores and the correlation between them and HMac’s though I must say you could expect the roles to be switched at some points during the year, so a fairly risky choice for mine.

PREMIUMS

Paddy Ryder (ESS) RUC 532.3k
Ryder has started the year on fire, averaging a huge 130 playing as a ruck-forward. His strong marking and shots on goal have been a stand-out and it will be interesting to see how he fares in losses with a decent margin.

Aaron Sandilands (FRE) RUC 602.8k
Sandi has seemed his old dominant self thus far in 2012, however playing against some inexperienced opponents may also have helped. Averaging 124 he’s looking like being a good R1, and in combination with Ryder R2 would be a deadly ruck set-up early on this year.

FORWARD
ROOKIES

Tory Dickson (WBD) FWD 106.6k
Dickson seems to be a decent option in a struggling Bulldogs side, and if he gets named this week could still be a solid selection. The Dogs are crying out for good forward options and he should get every chance to prove himself.

Interestingly all the other forward rookies are also defenders, and are listed at the top of the article in defense.

MID-PRICERS

Aaron Edwards (NM) FWD 415.3k
Edwards has been impressive early on in 2012, averaging 106 in some good wins. At just 415 grand he will be increasing in value around 40k this round if he maintains this average, and could be a great pick up before the hike.

Brendan Whitecross (HAW) FWD 419.4k
Whitecross continues to score well this year, averaging 110 over the first 3 games. With the Hawks looking like being strong contenders all year this season an emerging Hawthorn forward could well be a smart pick-up.

Chad Cornes (PTA) FWD 415.2k
Studly Chad is looking like an interesting POD, running loose across the half-back of the most attacked backline in the league. Averaging 105 and taking a fair few intercept marks he may not be in the top 2-3 forwards by the end of the year but could well be top 10.

Kurt Tippett (ADE) FWD 445.3k
Tippett is looking like he may finally be turning into the player he has always threatened to be, averaging 120 points in a revitalised Adelaide line-up. The fact he still scored well in the big loss to the Hawks is a good sign for his long term scoring and the Adelaide resurgence should only help his cause.

Stewart Crameri (ESS) FWD 469.6k
Crameri has been good this year, averaging 107 points and beating a few of the more popular Bomber mid-priced options. With Ryder and the Essendon midfield improving he should have good supply up forward and has the speed to be damaging running through the middle.

PREMIUMS

Nick Riewoldt (StK) FWD 495.1k
NRoo is looking like the Roo of old, averaging 113 points for the Sainters and rewarding his coaches. The change in coach or adjustments to game-plan may have helped, and if this is the case you can expect more of the same from him. Currently showing why he was a premium before last season.

Brent Harvey (NM) M/F 547.7k
Boomer just won’t quit. He gets written off as too old every year these days, and still manages to prove the doubters wrong. Averaging 111 early on and not looking any slower he could well remain in the top SC forwards for another year.

WAITING LIST

Adam Treloar (GWS) M/F 113.2k *73
James McDonald (GWS) MID 106.6k *100
Billy Longer (BRI) RUC 161.6k *85
Billy gets a special mention, as with Leuey out for at least 6 and a strong performance first up, those with good ruck coverage may consider an early downgrade of one of the better rookie rucks to free up some cash for a sneaky early upgrade (eg when Pendles bottoms out).

Nick Dal Santo (StK) MID 639k -10k
Scott Thompson (ADE) MID 595k -10k
Scott Pendlebury (COL) MID 668.9k -40k
Buddy Franklin (HAW) FWD 592.7k -10k
Matt Priddis (WCE) MID 618.5k -20k
Dane Swan (COL) MID 615.8k -20k
Andrew Embley (WCE) MID 519.9k -100k
ROK (SYD) M/F 556.6k -70k
Steve Johnson (GEE) FWD 505.4k -50k
Ryan Griffen (WBD) MID 586.7k -40k
Dean Cox (WCE) RUC 616.5k -30k
Matthew Pavlich (FRE) M/F 531.6k -30k


Ive been a bit rushed this week so let me know if there are any issues or mistakes in the article and as always feel free to discuss anyone that Ive missed.

Good luck to everyone in the following week, Ill see you in the comments.