Hi all, and welcome back to this weeks edition of The Best Buys.

The midway point of the season is fast approaching now, and some big decisions about team structure and tactics will now need to be made. Will coaches stick with the tried-and-true formulas of seasons past, or will they follow the AFLs lead and usher in a changing of the guard? There’s a lot of uncertainty going around, and luckily the Best Buys is here to help (or just confuse you even more).

This weeks tip from me, is Nicky Dal. He has started this season slowly and is returning to some form as of late, but many coaches will be put off by his poor output to date this season. Interestingly enough though, when you delve a little deeper into his stats, he’s actually tracking a fair bit better this season then he was at this time last year. Bargain priced at just over 500 grand he has proven before what his output can be when in form, and will hopefully bring last years form-line into this one.

Over the break is a graph comparing NDS’ form-line from last season to his form-line this season to date, and a bit of a spiel on just what a “semi-upgrade” is.

So, grab a coffee, and join me over the break!,

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Ok, so I lied. Sorry about that. I was fully intending on putting a nice little graph on NDS in here but I got distracted at home last night and can’t put it up now I’m at work due to browser issues. But for anyone interested in NDS this week I would recommend heading over to his stats page, and having a look yourself.

The Semi-Upgrade?
With a lot of coaches now running low on trades, taking into account 6 or so trades around the byes, some people may be looking to get a sneaky edge on their opponents with a couple of early “semi-upgrades” this year. A “semi-upgrade” is essentially where coaches playing for league wins rather than overall bring in a cheaper player in good form in the hope that they can maintain that form until the finals are approaching, before then upgrading them properly. It is quite a risk but for those that can pull it off it can certainly be worthwhile. To do this you’ll need a bit of spare cash to make a straight swap from a cashed-up cow to the “semi” player, and then a bit more spare cash come the finals to upgrade them out to a premium in form (or one that won’t be rested, Clarko).

The main point in this scenario is the points generated in the interim until the upgrade can occur, without having to use up an extra trade to get them. The risks here are that your “semi-upgrade” player drops off in form (or are dropped altogether), you can’t generate the cash needed to complete the upgrade, or all the premium upgrade options smash it until then putting you behind on the points. Ideally as you will only use one trade for the “semi” instead of two for a full upgrade you can also speed up the process of upgrading slightly.

The “semi” will only be effective for players planning on making a couple of sideways or upgrade trades around the finals anyway, but hey, hopefully it gives you all a little something extra to think about. With the way SC has gone so far this year, I’m thinking that most (like me) will probably need all the help they can get to take out our respective league crowns.

INFO

The Best Buys uses a mix of price, form, break-evens and projected salaries to assess the Best Buys of each round. These are essentially the players that represent the best “value” which is determined by the above factors. Some player will not be mentioned on here even if they are playing well, as value is the key for this article. If a player is averaging 110, which is certainly solid, but priced at an average of 112 then they will not be rated. This does not mean these players should be avoided or not picked due to this, but simply that they aren’t as good “value” as the others in the Best Buys. For all the player I’ve missed, and any more you’re wanting opinions on, the thumbs are always there.

The thumbs act as a polling tool for the TS community, if you pose a question with either a yes-no answer or a “thumbs-up X, thumbs down Y” in there then the community as a whole can give you some great feedback into your choices and what they think about it, while also catering to the lazy amongst them that can’t be bothered actually typing out a response.

The “Waiting List” section at the end of the article shows players who are looking like being great buys but for whatever reason will be better looked at in the coming weeks rather than this one. In the case of the first few names on the list this is because they have only played one game (indicated by the * next to their single game score) and you will have one more week to assess them, having only played one match they do not have a salary prediction either, for the others on the list it is usually because they will be decreasing in value this round based on current predictions and could be picked up cheaper the next week. Some players on the Waiting List will not make the next Best Buys, due to only a small decrease in price etc, and so it is something you should keep an eye on regularly. The Waiting List also includes a projected salary drop over the next round for each player.

Now, after all that, onto the Best Buys.


DEFENSE
ROOKIES
Sam Darley (GWS) D 113.2k
Darley will burst his bubble next game, but with a sub affected second up score hopefully he won’t be too pricey to bring in afterwards. Now is definitely the better time to bring him in but for those with more pressing matter this week for once the sub rule may help out in SC, giving us an extra week to decide. Has shown talent and some promise early, but will need to maintain his form to be worthwhile.

Josh Bootsma (CAR) D 106.6k
Bootsma is a young up and coming defender for the Blues, being picked up in the last draft, and is now on the bubble. He has averaged 40 in his two games for Carlton, and whilst he has shown some promise his job security must be a concern for any potential buyers. Carlton still have some quality players to come into the back-line and also have Matt Watson (first round draft pick from last season) waiting in the wings. I personally can’t see Bootsma getting much of a run but for those willing to risk it he provides a defensive downgrade option at a time when few others are around.

PREMIUMS
Beau Waters (WCE) D 516.8k
Beau continues to impress with his form this season, in a severely injury-affected Eagles squad he has really stood up and shouldered his share of the weight. Averaging 102 so far he is close to the best defenders, and has made a great D6-7 for those with the stones to start him this season. Still definitely worth considering.

Brendon Goddard (StK) D/M 525.5k
BJ is showing everyone why he is still one of the top defenders in SC every year, his form while not amazing, especially for his standards, has still resulted so far in a 107 average. Probably been overtaken by Lids at this stage definitely still in the top few defenders. Get him while he’s cheap, as almost everyone else already has him.

Heath Shaw (COL) D 578.5k
Heater has been a bit up-and-down this season, however he has so far managed to avoid any dodgy punts on his skipper, which must be seen as a positive. An average of 109 places him at the pointy end of the quality defenders, and with the Pies looking to consolidate a top four finish he should hopefully continue to average 100+ for the remainder of the season. Seems to be pushing up the ground more this year, which has resulted in the odd goal, and has started at half-forward on more than one occasion, so keep an eye on his position and role going forward.

MIDFIELD
MID-PRICERS
Danyle Pearce (PTA) M 477.4k
Pearce has been in some career best form recently, averaging 126 ppg over his last 3 matches. Not many coaches will be after the mid-priced options at this time of year so if he looks like continuing this form then he could be a great POD. Interestingly enough, Lyin at Freo has had absolutely nothing to do with his performances.

Brock McLean (CAR) M 280.8k
One of the “semi-upgrade” (probably even a semi-downgrade) options, McLean has struggled to break into the Carlton squad regularly but with some great VFL form and the injury of Murphy he may well be given the chance to hold down a spot for now. He has been previously labelled “too slow” for AFL footy these days, but his strength and in-close ball work are something the Blues seem to have been missing recently. With a bevy of “outside” midfield players to feed the ball to McLean’s last game score of 115 may be the start of some good footy. On the other hand, it also may not. Big risk but appropriate reward.

PREMIUMS
Nick Dal Santo (StK) M 501.3k
NDS is my pick of the week this week, after a slow start to the season he looks to be regaining some form and at a good price. Interestingly his form-line from last season is very similar to this season so far, and if this trend continues then he could be in for some big games. Last year he averaged 96 over the first 8 games with a couple of poor games and one big one, and then 130.5 from round 13 onwards. This year to round 8 he is averaging 103.5 also with a couple of poor games and one big one, the Saints are on the up and he is every chance with the Saints draw easing from here to finish this year strongly as well. If he can match his form from last year, he will be an absolute bargain.

Matty Boyd (WBD) M 593.2k
Boydy has exploded in the last few weeks, averaging 133 and giving the Dogs some real on-field leadership. Priced at just under 600 grand he is a great option to fill out your mid-field and will probably be a POD at the end. The Dogs better recent form has coincided with Boydys and hopefully points to better things in the weeks to come.

Trent Cotchin (RIC) M 541.8k
The Cotch has been one of Richmonds best so far this season, consistently finding the ball and putting it to good use. Leading their mid-field charge and sneaking forward for the occasional goal he has been in good form but may have had his scores affected by Richmonds win/loss. Averaging 112 and priced at under 550 grand he represents good value and the Tigers easing draw should help him to squeeze out a few extra points per game from here.

Tom Rockliff (BRI) M 549.1k
Rocky has had a couple of poor showings thus far this season, which has managed to keep his average down and pricing with it. At 550 grand and averaging over 110 he is still certainly not that great a risk, but will be a valuable POD if he can stay a bit more consistent. Main negatives for Rocky are the Lions poor form in general, and of course good old Crazy Vossy.

Sam Mitchell (HAW) M 516.3k
Smitch has been another elite mid-fielder to start this season slowly, averaging 107 so far and seeing a nice price drop down to only a bit over 500 grand. His bye may be troubling for some, and so far there have been better options, but expect Smitch to turn that form around and try to finish the year strongly. The Hawks have fallen into a bit of a hole of recent times (like a few teams), and will be looking to try and improve their form leading into the finals, and with Hodgeys ongoing concerns SMitch should be the man to lead them.

Josh P Kennedy (SYD) M 599.3k
JPK has continued on with his break-out season, and whilst his average may have started to drop off a bit, he’s still easily one of the best mids going around SC land at this stage. His hard contested play style and big body mean he should continue to rack up the contested possessions, and makes marking him all the harder. More bye issues to be found here, as he shares the bye with Collingwood and Geelong among others, but his scores so far have made up for that easily.

RUCK
MID-PRICERS
Mike "The" Pyke (SYD) R 210.3k

Pyke has played the last two rounds and has delivered the goods in each, with scores of 95 and 108. He is now on the bubble and if he gets another game he will see a very nice price rise, as his break-even is sitting on a great -74. The problem though, is that "if". Pyke has been with the Swans for going on four seasons now, and his season totals for games have been 8, 16, and 2 last year. Seaby is apparently in the doghouse with Longmire and Mummys back still seems to be an issue but if one of them were to come right Id have to worry about Pykes job security. A good candidate for the "semi", but only if he gets named. Also, did I mention hes a Canandian rugby player?

PREMIUMS
Ivan Maric (RIC) R 560.8k
Marics mullet has once again dragged him across the line of average rucks, and so far has seen him average 111 for the season and 134 over his last three games. There has been talk of whether or not Maric is in All-Australian form this year, and while that is still up for debate, without a doubt his mullet certainly is. Expect him to further increase his output again once he gets the racing stripe installed, but be warned he is quite probably only a trim away from mediocrity.

Paddy Ryder (ESS) R 523.2k
Ryder is looking a better start-of-season selection by the week, and with Sandi underperforming is quite possibly the number 1 ruck at the moment this season. Averaging 112 and priced at only a bit over 500 grand he is a great ruck choice and will be upgraded to by many teams over the following weeks. Even with-out a mullet Ryder can still rack them up (although he does still have the go-fast red stripe).

FORWARDS
MID-PRICERS
Nick Riewoldt (StK) F 494.7k
Roo continues to prove his many doubters wrong, while not reaching the heights of years past he has so far been fairly consistent and a well scoring forward option. The emergence of the next generation of forwards , like Beams, Sidey, Zaha, Danger etc. mean that there may be better scoring options up forward now than Roo but at under 500 grand and averaging 103 not many would offer the same value.

Ryan O’Keefe (SYD) M/F 481.3k
ROK backed up on my tip of him last week with a solid 109, bringing his average over the last 3 games up to match (110). Still under 500 grand due to his shocking start to the season he will likely increase again in price this week, anywhere up to 30 grand worth, and so will remain a viable option for another week or two yet for those still unconvinced. A great player who will be relied upon more in Goodes’ absence, ROK has been an SC star for a few years now.

Kurt Tippett (ADE) F 465.8k
Tippett has so far managed to ignore the jibes of the SC community this season, and is still keeping his average on the right side of 100. Priced at only 466 odd grand he will likely continue on his up-and-down ways, but with the Crows pulling some very impressive form out of the bag this year he should at least be considered. He has burnt way too many coaches in his time to be considered a lock by any, but this year the TTT is looking every chance of happening.

Drew Petrie (NM) F 459.9k
Droopy has started to hit some solid form after a slow start this year, while his yearly average is down to just 91, his average over the past three games has been a much better 121. Due to his slow start his price is still sitting at an affordable 460 grand and he would have to be a decent POD for the season. Not in many teams after he lost his MPP status, but could still easily be a leading forward over the back half of the season.

PREMIUMS

Dayne Beams (COL) M/F 546.8k
Beams is another player to explode in his last game, racking up a very nice 175 points in Swans absence. He and Sidey were pretty close on price and form a couple of weeks back, but now Beams if 50 grand cheaper than Sidey and looking like filling Swannies spot for another week or two. Be aware that the resultant role change when Swan returns could lead to Beams dropping his average again, but numbers before the Swan injury were solid enough for most anyway.

David Zaharakis (ESS) M/F 523.3k
Zaha is keeping his average at a decent level this season, averaging 100 so far, without quite stepping it up to the next level. A strong favourite over the pre-season many coaches dropped off him after a couple of poor showings and he has probably shown why so far. With Essendons improved form this season and Zahas not-quite-up-to-it form personally, he will remain an unknown leading into the latter half of the season but would make a solid smoky option.

Paul Chapman (GEE) M/F 527.6k
Chappy is trundling along alright at this stage, having started reasonably slowly with a lot of the Cats, and is now averaging 103 priced at 528 grand. The Cats will be determined to put that start behind them now and move onto the finals with some momentum, and many would expect Chappy to be a leading part of this. One of the Cats older heads and harder bodies, Chappy could easily see out the season amongst the leading forwards.

Steve Johnson (GEE) F 507.8k
Stevie J backed up from my tip on him a couple of weeks ago, with a very nice 146, making me look a lot better after his poor first up effort. With Kelly missing Stevie spend a lot of time running through the mid-field and racked up plenty of possessions, Kelly is due to return this week or next however so keep an eye on his impact on Stevies scoring. Still priced affordably and with a high ceiling Stevie is a good SC forward and a great POD as this stage.

WAITING LIST
Scott Thompson (ADE) M 636.4k -14k
Gary Ablett Jnr (GCS) M 688.3k -8k
Chris Judd (CAR) M 568.5k -18k
Patrick Dangerfield (ADE) M/F 568.1k 10k
Brent Stanton (ESS) M 639k -20k
Aaron Sandilands (FRE) R 565.4k -27k
Matt Priddis (WCE) M 470.4k -22k

Ok, so as Im sure many of you noticed there is a distinct lack of rookies here, and the Waiting List is only a coulpe of premos. Over the day Ill see if I can rustle up some more info on rookie prospects and hope that a few of you guys can point me in the direction of a couple of blokes you want info on, so try and bear with me. Until then, thats it from me, so good luck and good trading.