<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14.399999618530273px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 14.399999618530273px;]Welcome again to the TooSerious Best Buys. There are some very tasty rookie downgrade options this week, and coming up next week, just in time for some serious bye-trading. As we progress through the byes it will be very interesting to see if the majority of teams take a big hit at least one of the weeks, or whether they can use some savvy trades to avoid the carnage the whole way through.
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<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14.399999618530273px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 14.399999618530273px;]Young Tom Nicholls is the Best Buy for the week, even though he is facing his bye next week the fact that he is on the bubble and averaging an exceptional 115 and will likely rise over 100 grand after his next game means he can't be ignored. The Suns recent form may have had a part in this, but that's really a chicken-and-egg scenario so don't go there. With Dixon hurting his ankle, again, on the weekend Nicholls looks pretty safe for the immediate future and a great cash-cow option.
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<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14.399999618530273px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 14.399999618530273px;]Bye schedule:
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<p style='margin-bottom: 10px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 17.99715805053711px; background-color: #fbfbfb; color: #444444;]<strong style='font-size: 13.63636302947998px;]Round 11ort, Richmond, Bulldogs, Brisbane, Freo, Hawthorn[/b]
<p style='margin-bottom: 10px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 17.99715805053711px; background-color: #fbfbfb; color: #444444;]<strong style='font-size: 13.63636302947998px;]Round 12:North, St Kilda, West Coast, Sydney, Geelong, Melbourne[/b]
<p style='margin-bottom: 10px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 17.99715805053711px; background-color: #fbfbfb; color: #444444;]<strong style='font-size: 13.63636302947998px;]Round 13:[/b]<strong style='font-size: 13.63636302947998px;]Adelaide, Gold Coast, GWS, Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon[/b]






DEFENSE
ROOKIES



Brent Staker (BRL) D/F 198.1k 79 +55k
Stakes isn't on the bubble any more, as I'm sure a few of you have noticed, but at just under 100 grand he may still offer a little bit of cash generation but should be solid cover. In 136,000 teams currently, he is already in a fair chunk of squads.



MID-PRICERS



Bryce Gibbs (CAR) D/M 483.4k 102
Gibbs isn't excelling, but still offers good value for his roughly 485 grand price. Likely to rise around 10 grand this week, if you've waited this long to join the 103,000 coaches who have him another 2 weeks won't hurt that much.



Dyson HEPPELL (ESS) D/M 475.1k 98
Hep has dropped to a pretty low 475 grand, and is likely to go up by a bit over 10 grand this week. If the Dons don't repeat last years late-season efforts then he should be able to increase his average at least a few points from here over the rest of the season. Has around 85,000 selections to date this season.



PREMIUMS



Heath Shaw (COL) DEF 536.6k 104
Heater is always a gamble. He scores well and generally plays an SC-friendly role for the Pies, but is always a risk of suspension or injury. Averaging 104 and priced well for it he is currently in just over 50,000 teams.



MIDFIELD
ROOKIES



Nathan Hrovat (WBD) MID 114.5k 74 +67k
Hrovat has looked very solid for the Dogs in his first 2 games at the top level. A champion in the underage comps he looks like a great midseason downgrade option and should be a popular trade in this week. He should complement Tom Mitchell nicely on the bench after next week I'd think. Averaging 74 and facing a 67 grand price rise, he looks good value.



Kyle Martin (COL) MID 110.2k 89 +87k
Martin has performed well above expectations in his first 2 games, my expectations anyway, managing to average 89 and looking likely to go up in price by almost 90 grand after his next appearance. I have to admit I'm fairly unsure of his job security, but if it's based on form then he should get a decent run. Nice alternative to Hrovat, possibly more high risk/reward though.



MID-PRICERS



Dane Swan (COL) MID 535.9k 115
Swannie had a great game against the Dee's rewarding those who brought him in for it with a very nice 148. Still priced at a very tasty 535 grand he looks excellent value but will be facing a bye next week preventing a few from taking advantage. Will probably go up by over 30 grand after this week, Swannie is still just shy of the 100,000 selections mark.



Nathan FYFE (FRE) MID 548.7k 112
Fyfe just scrapes into the mid-priced category this week, at just under 550 grand and averaging a healthy 112. As always he will test the nerves of his 46,000 coaches every time he runs off the field nursing a shoulder.



PREMIUMS



Gary Ablett (GCS) MID 688k 137
See last week's notes. Facing a bye next week meaning a few will be likely to wait a bit to grab him. Star.



Scott Pendlebury (COL) MID 610.8k 126
Pendles is similar to Gaz, but not quite at the same level. Again the bye next week, but under-priced at the moment.



Ryan Griffen (WBD) MID 606.7k 123
Griffen may be a fairly popular trade in this week, having already had his bye and averaging 123 he is looking excellent value at the moment. Amazingly he is still in under 4,000 teams, while ranking as the 3rd highest averaging player this year after missing a couple of games. If it wasn't for Nicholls Griff would be this week's Best Buy.



Michael BARLOW (FRE) MID 558k 112
Barlow has had his bye, and the Dockers will be pushing for finals hard over the remainder of the year. Averaging a nice 112 and priced at around the mark, he is currently in around 15,000 teams and offers some good POD value.



RUCK
ROOKIES



Thomas NICHOLLS (GCS) RUC 115.9k 115 +120k
The man of the week, Tommy Nicholls is averaging a massive 115 from his first 2 games and is on the bubble facing a 120 grand price rise. Should be a very popular choice this week after Dixon again injured his ankle meaning even if he plays he won't be spending too much time in the ruck. Nicholls will likely be the Suns number one big-man for a while at least, and seems more than capable of holding his own.



Sam GRIMLEY (HAW) RUC 115.9k 75 +68k
Grimley is the other rookie ruck option, and the one most likely to be ignored. Averaging a solid 75 over his first 2 games he has shown some promise, but his numbers just don't match up with Nicholls'. Looking at a good price rise of nearly 70 grand, he may be a sneaky POD choice for coaches wanting to dump some ruck spuds.



MID-PRICERS



Ivan Maric (RIC) RUC 454k 93
Maric has struggled this season, not to the level of some others (yes Sauce, we're looking at you), and is facing a further 10 grand or so price drop this week. So why is he on the list? Because he's playing Sauce this week, and has already had his bye. Priced at just over 450 grand he offers great value if he can start to perform at last season's levels regularly, he has still got around 35,000 coaches backing him in.



Matthew Kreuzer (CAR) RUC 432.2k 85
Kreuz is in a similar position to last week, except he has played an additional average game. Still a high risk/reward prospect, the next few weeks look to be season-defining for the Blues for better or for worse. Facing the bye next week it may well be worth holding off on him until after the bye and watching his form again in between. Around 25,000 selections going into this week.



PREMIUMS



Will Minson (WBD) RUC 572.6k 116
Wilbur is becoming a very familiar name in the Best Buys list, as he really has been a good pick for the under 20,000 coaches to jump on so far this season. Averaging 116 and mixing with the best rucks in the game, he is still a bit of a POD and should be strongly considered.



FORWARD
ROOKIES



Tim Sumner (GCS) FWD 109.5k 49 +36k
Tim Sumner is on the bubble now after his second game for the Suns, averaging an acceptable 49 and looking at a 35+ grand price rise. In a time when the forward rookies have been scarce he may well get a few guernsey's just on need. The Suns have looked pretty good recently as well, which should bode well for the guys getting games.



MID-PRICERS



Justin Westhoff (PTA) FWD 439.5k 102
The Hoff is a contentious one, he hasn't really been able to show the same form lately that he showed at the start of the season, but has still been pretty good in some games anyway. Averaging 102 for the year, and priced well below that at under 440 grand he is a big risk player but may well come off for the 25,000 odd coaches who have him.



Lance Franklin (HAW) FWD 458.4k 89
Buddy is still not looking his best, but has at least had his bye and seems to be picking up a little. Priced at under 460 grand he offers great value on potential, but unfortunately not going by this seasons numbers alone. At least with 150,000 selections so far you know you won't be the only one hurting when he sp[span style='font-size: 14.399999618530273px;]uds.
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PREMIUMS



Andrew Walker(CAR) M/F 520.7k 113
Walker bounced back with a nice 140 in the loss to the Dons, and while he is a bit up and down he is starting to become a necessary player in the forward line. Looking like rising around 40 grand this week, but facing a bye the next, those looking to bring him in will face a bit of a dilemma. In 55,000 teams so far, a lot of the leaders have brought in Walks already.



Jarrad Waite (CAR) FWD 517.1k 102
Waite had a big game against the Dons, and showed what he can do when he's on song. Unfortunately it's such a rare occasion that he's actually playing and on song however that he remains a big risk for any fantasy side. Priced at slightly above his average and facing a bye next week he might not be a popular choice, but he is one that if everything falls into place could pay off massively.
Less than 2,000 selections so far.



Jordan Lewis (HAW) M/F 519.9k 98
Lewis hasn't really produced at his best so far this season, and is actually a little overpriced. It isn't enough to make up for the potential of cover he can offer this week as he is past his bye though, and the Hawks draw opens up a little over the next few weeks. Averaging 98 and a consistent performer Lewis has made his way into around 15,000 teams to date.



WAITING LIST



Tom Mitchell (SYD) MID115.9k 107 +110k
Jobe Watson (ESS) MID 591.7k 115 -38k
Trent Cotchin (RIC) MID 550.7k 112 -16k
Patrick Dangerfield (ADE) MID 591.3k 111 -10k
Nick Riewoldt (StK) FWD 512.1k 108 -11k
Joel Selwood (GEE) MID 492.8k 107 +9k
Pearce Hanley (BRI) DEF 516.9k 105 -24k
Dustin MARTIN (RIC) M/F 530.4k 104 -30k
Tom Rockliff (BRI) M/F 527.1k 103 -28k
Joe Daniher (ESS) FWD 154.5k 55*


As always feel free to join us in the comments below, for all your thumbs requests and trade advice from the TS community, or even follow me on twitter @BlueBelieverTS for notifications on when the Best Buys are out each week.