Welcome to the first 2012 edition of Best Buys, and my first as the writer. Usually Best buys is a regular season article focussing on the price movements of players and finding value, however this pre-season edition will be a bit different. As the pre-season SuperCoach scores arent released until the completion of the NAB Cup Ive had to use some estimated figures to calculate scoring and price fluctuations, and with so many players playing its ended up pretty big. This week covers the first 9 teams to play, and there will be a follow-up edition next week.

Since it’s a fairly large article, I’d suggest grabbing a coffee or reading over lunch, and joining us over the break!
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This year I’ll be taking on the mantle of “Best Buys Writer” and providing the article, but as always the key part of this thread is the community input. The “thumbs up, thumbs down” system has worked really well in the past and provides an excellent way for the greater TS community to vote on your trade ideas. All the old hands around here will know all of this but for the new guys I’ll do a quick re-hash anyway. Simply put, you post your idea of a trade in the article comments with two options and the community tells you via the thumbs what they think. E.g. “Curnow upgrade to Swan?” or “Curnow upgrade to? Thumbs up for Swan, thumbs down for Ablett”. This takes personal feelings out of the equation and gives you great unbiased feedback from TS as a whole. If you are posting a question it is generally good form to answer a few other peoples questions while you’re there, and it helps to kill some time while you wait for answers. Generally speaking though it is best to give your trade suggestions 48 hours or so before tallying to get a more even spread of TS user feedback.


Best Buys as an article will outline players each week who will go up in price, down in price, or are great value where they are and will be listed by position, and sectioned into rookies, mid-pricers and premiums. This pre-season edition is a bit of a monster, but regular season should be a bit more manageable with stable line-ups. Additionally Best Buys will more than likely only have 2 pre-season editions covering round 1, but may have a wrap up after the NAB cup finishes.

This pre-season edition uses a very basic formula to calculate SuperCoach scores based on DreamTeam scores and whilst a good indicator, are not necessarily accurate and do not include efficiency. This means that players scoring 120+ skews their scores a bit, but the Best Buys regular season editions will use only official SuperCoach stats. Included are the SuperCoach scores that have been released by Fantasy Freako for comparison. Using this formula for the first two games for each team of the NAB cup, and the players average from 2011 or average based on price, we also get a good indication of what their price would have done had these been regular season games and they had played 3.

And now, finally, to the Best Buys

Defense
Rookies

Brandon Ellis (Rich) scored 52 and then 59 in a decent display, getting a bit of the ball but also taking kick-ins without Lids or Newman, so judge accordingly. Price rise would be around 25 grand, and seems sure to get some game time.
Steven Morris (Rich) played once and looked comfortable scoring 78 to go up 20 grand, and if he continues to get time the mature aged recruit could be a handy option.
Sam Darley (GWS) showed a lot of potential in his only outing, producing 104 points and rising 35 grand. Definite defensive rookie option to watch and has already impressed many.
Tomas Bugg (GWS) impressed a few with his only outing netting 121 points and a price hike of 40 grand, if he gets game-time he should be an excellent defensive cow and you’d think GWS will have the ball down there a fair bit. Freako – 142 from 1 game
Tim Mohr, (GWS) the mature aged defensive mid, played twice and whilst he only managed scores of 49 and 51, that would be enough to up by 20 grand. Solid option.
Adam Tomlinson (GWS) posted a 118 in his only game, rising 35 grand. For those considering Smedts, Tomlinson could provide a very handy swing-man as he is also defense/forward. Freako – 112 from 1 game.
Jacob Townsend (GWS) had a decent outing with scores of 95 and 37 to have a 35 grand price hike, and is another young GWS defender to keep an eye on.
Peter Yagmoor (Coll) was the standout of the Pies rookies over the first round of the NAB, knocking up scores of 70 and 115. These scores see him rocket over 60 grand in value, and if he can get a regular gig in the forward line could be a very handy pick-up. Macaffer’s injury can only help.

Mid-pricers
Reece Conca (Rich) scored a 123 and a 48, which when combined with his average means he’d go up around 20 grand. Took out Leigh Adams behind play though and may have suspension issues during the year.
Bachar Houli (Rich) scored 97 and 86 to lose 10 grand, which to me is not promising. Would need to average 100+ this year to be value for money and Richmond already have its fair share of premium defenders.
Ryan Hargrave (WBD) had a great night returning 118 then 123 to give his price a 50 grand boost. Another solid mid-price defensive gamble but has had a history of burning coaches.
Shannon Hurn (WCE) played once only, but belted out a 162 to increase in value by 25 grand. Has always had the ability to belt out huge scores two or three times a year though. Be wary.
Matt Suckling (Haw) knocked out a 117 and a 104 to rise in price by only 5 grand, suggesting to stay at his starting price he will need to average 100+. Hawthorn had the highest points per game total of any AFL club last year, meaning if Suckling increases his output the points will more than likely come from a teammate. Also note his disposal was poor, which would lower his score, but has typically been one of his strengths in the past.
Christian Howard (WBD) pumped a 175 followed by a 23 to mean he increased his price by 40 grand. Good Mid-priced defensive option.
Jake Carlisles (Ess) 111 and 101 point games would see his price go up to the tune of 30 grand, in a good display for the mid-pricer.
Tyson Goldsack (Coll) put a 73 on the board in the first, and then managed an improved 121 to net himself a 25 grand price rise. Another viable mid-priced option from the Pies, and may benefit from current injuries there.
Simon Buckley (Coll) played both games, scoring 123 points followed up by a more subdued 44. His price would increase by only 5 grand or so, and would take a brave coach to put Buckley in their side. Better Mid-price options around.
Tom young (Coll) managed a 44 and then a 121 in his couple of outings, increasing by almost 30 grand in price but is awkwardly priced for a mid-pricer and may be one to look to next season and beyond.
The Duffman (Freo) was average in his first game but tore it up in his second, scoring 42 and 124 respectively, which has been a habit of his over the years. Dropped 3 grand. Will be hard to judge till we see Ross’ game plan properly.
Poops (HAW) initially looked good and smashed a 106 only to bring in a 27 in the second game, meaning his price dropped by almost 25 grand.
Grand Birchall (HAW) played once against NM for an impressive 143 making him rise 10 grand. As a mid-pricer he is at the very top end at over $500,000 but that also means he wouldnt need to increase his average by much to become premium.

Premiums
Bob Murphy (WBD) played once for 120, meaning his price went up 3 grand. Shows he is overvalued I feel.
Greg Broughton (Freo) played both games and scored 87 then 92, which would see him lose 15 grand. If he does get more mid-field time this year he could be a good pick, but under Lyon and the changes that follow he will be a bit of an unknown quantity I think.
Heath Shaw (Coll) pumped out scores of 123 and 145, playing himself into a few more teams. A price rise of nearly 20 grand means he should probably be jumped on early, and will be by the majority of SuperCoach coaches. May be a dumbass but can play some good footy. Freako – 140 average over 2 games.

Midfield
Rookies
A 106 from Sam Gibson (NM) in his only game gives him a rise of 35 grand, making him a good possible rookie choice.
Koby Stevens (WCE) scored a decent 45 and then an improved 76 to rise in price by nearly 30 grand. Could be a good rookie option so he’s another one to keep an eye on.
Steven Clifton (GWS) only managed one game and 55 points, but that still saw a rise of 10 grand. Will need to see more before I commit, but still one to keep an eye on.
Curtly Hampton (GWS) only played once and scored 66 points, but still rose 15 grand, looked like he knew what he was doing. Doesn’t hurt that he’s forward/midfield eligible either.
James McDonald (GWS) scored 110 in his first game in his new colours, rising 35 grand in the process. GWS will need him playing as often as possible and he doesn’t look much worse for wear from being out of the game for a year.
Dom Tyson (GWS) only played once but had a good game with a score of 118 and a rise of 30 grand, his higher price may put a lot of people of with the abundance of cheaper options.
Anthony Miles (GWS) knocked out a 118 in his only appearance, which increased his price by 40 grand. Easily worth considering
Marley Williams (Coll) managed both games for the Pies, scoring 84 points and then 34 to rise in value by 35 grand. Will struggle for consistent game-time at the Pies but if he gets a run of a few matches in a row on the board, could be worth looking into.
Lachie Neale (Freo) was the star for Fremantle, in the eyes of most SCers anyway, belting out a 129 and a 67. This impressive display from the rookie saw his price rise by 65 grand, and Lyon talked him up before the game meaning he is better odds than most rookies under Lyon to get game time.
Elliott Kavanagh (Ess) got one game in and made the most of it scoring himself 90 points and a 30 grand price rise. His disposal and decision making were questionable at times, but it was his first match at this level. Good rookie option to keep an eye on.
Brendan Lee (Ess) played once and managed a 48 and a 10 grand increase, which while not bad for a rookie puts him firmly behind Kavanagh and Dell’Olio for me.
Stephen Coniglio (GWS) is badly priced, being the number 2 draft pick and all, but his scores of 49 and 84 meant he increased in value almost 25 grand. Should get time at least but similar to Swallow last year won’t set the world on fire just yet.
Sam Reid (GWS) put in one solid game scoring 90 points to rise by around 25 grand. He may be a bit behind a few other GWS midfield rookies but is still a solid option at this point. One to watch.

Mid-pricers
Robin Nahas (Rich) put up a 126 in his only game and sees a 10 grand gain. Will be interesting to see how the new recruits change the Tigers game-plan but I would still be hesitant to recommend him. Freako – 156 from 1 game.
145 and 73 see Ziebull (NM) go up close to 20 grand. Good mid-price option and looking fit, but awkwardly priced.
Leigh Adams (NM) only played about a quarter of one game before getting concussed. With an average of 90 he would need to improve to premium this year, but has good chances of doing so.
Jordan Lewis (HAW) managed a 132 followed up with a 65 to end up with a net loss of 5 grand. Better options.
Libba (WBD) scored himself a 118 and a 110 to increase his price 25 grand. Second year blues could be an issue.
Andrew Gaff (WCE) scored a 99 in his only outing but only increased by 8 grand. As he was the West Coast Super-Sub last year his average will have been affected but is awkwardly priced and may also suffer second year blues.
Chris Masten (WCE) scored an impressive 150 and followed it with a reasonable 76. After burning SuperCoach coaches for a couple of years now it could be Mastens time, but not sure many will be willing to risk it again. Could be a good mid-price option and POD.
Ballantyne (Freo) scored 101 then 48 and lost just over 5 grand, those considering him as a mid-price option should watch the remaining NAB closely.
Ben Howlett (Ess) was consistent with a 102 and a 97, making him a solid mid-priced choice if he can keep up the average but at almost $450,000 not many will be willing to take the risk.
Rhys Palmer (Freo) played once for an impressive 139, but don’t expect to see it again and at around $350,000 that only saw his price rise by 25 grand. Much better mid-priced options around. Freako – 111 from 1 game.

Premiums
A 78 and a 117 sees Boomer Harvey (NM) lose 15 grand. Slowly declining output in general. His demise was predicted a little early last year, but the odds are definitely against him.
134 and 77 see Andrew Swallow (NM) drop 20 grand, seems over-priced to me but is still worth a look.
Sam Mitchell (Haw) belted out a 150 then a 149 in a very consistent display meaning he increased by 15 grand, I hadn’t looked seriously at him until now but if he keeps this form going consider locking him in. Freako – 141 average over 2 games.
Hodge (Haw) only lined up once scoring 62 points and subsequently drops 30 grand, not the best start for a premium.
Matty Boyd (WBD) went on a rampage, knocking up 159 before 235. This earnt him a huge rise of almost 60 grand. Even bigger when you realise that he is over $600,000 to start. Freako – 170 average over 2 games.
Daniel Cross (WBD) scored 136 and 68 to lose 7 grand, not a bad choice but others may be better. Freako – 103 average over 2 games.
Ryan Griffen (WBD) scored 95 but is priced at an average of 109 meaning he lost close to 20 grand. Avoid at this stage, but could be good value when his price drops over the early season.
Matt Priddis (WCE) only managed a 42 in his only outing, dropping his price by almost 35 grand. Not a good start, so keep an eye on him during the rest of the NAB.
Luke Ball (Coll) had a couple of solid games, scoring 81 and 172 to rise by 10 grand, as with all the Collingwood midfielders though the lack of Pendlebury and a few key others means there was more of the pill around for the other guys but also more tags. Freako – 95 average over 2 games.
Swannie (Coll) played both games but didn’t seem to get past a jog, scoring 97 and 71 to lose close to 50 grand. Luckily the premiums aren’t about cash movement and Swan should still be a star in the regular season. Also of note is with Pendles out he took some heavy tags which may have affected his score. Freako – 89 average over 2 games.
Daisy Thomas (Coll) had a good night out, scoring 110 in his first game before a massive 239 in his second, these stats are skewed at the top end but still indicative of a monster game. He would rise 40 grand on the back of this, and into true premium status. Daisy will be overlooked by many for Swan and Pendles but has shown he is still definitely a viable option for those looking for a POD. Freako – 143 average over 2 games.

Ruck
Rookies
Tom Derickx (Rich) posted 67 and 36 to move up by almost 25 grand, but not sure he will get time with Maric freshly joined. Better options around.
Young Ayce Cordy (WBD) looked promising in his only out scoring 118 to rise 30 grand.
Big American Shae McNamara (Coll) put in a good showing with a 131 in his only game, rookie priced but no job security to speak of as of yet. His score would see a 40 grand bump to his price, but may not mean much if he’s not getting games. One to keep an eye on, but probably more a 2013 prospect if anything. Also note playing on Cooyou who got a lot of the pill as well.
Big Jon Giles (GWS) had a night out, producing scores of 130 and 148, and an almost 100 grand price rise to match. Will be in all teams come round one, so you might as well lock him in now. Freako – 115 average over 2 games.

Mid-pricers
Ivan Maric (Rich) scored a 112 in his only hit out, and was the only RUC to crack 100. Price rise of 15 grand but cannot see him playing as well against serious opposition.
Hamish McIntosh (NM) only sees a rise of 8 grand from an 89 and an 84, but seems that a lot of his points were stolen from Goldstein. The two switching through the ruck will affect both their scores over the year.
Jordan Roughhead (WBD) knocked out a 136 in his only match to rise 25 grand. Not a bad prospect but would need a break-out year to be worthwhile and mid-priced rucks are never particularly popular. Freako – 112 from 1 game.
Paddy Ryder (Ess) only managed scores of 42 and 66, meaning those hoping he can reach premium status this year may be sorely disappointed. He would lose around 40 grand for these performances and win a spot on “do not pick” list. Only if he tears up the rest of the pre-season should he be considered.
Wilbur Minson scored 104 and 73 to drop 3 grand. Much better options I feel but some saying this could be his year. Freako – 103 average over 2 games.

Premiums
Todd Goldstein (NM) scored 67 in his only hit-out to lose 35 grand. Not a good sign for Goldy to start the year. A lot of this seemed to be HMac’s influence so if considering watch closely.
Big Cox (WCE) only suited up the once, but dominated with a 197 against Sandi. Expensive and getting older but an out-and-out star. Price increase of 15 grand or so but that’s not why he’s in your side. Barring injury will be my R1.
Sandilands’ (Freo) 125 and subsequent 44 meant he lost around 35 grand, but more worryingly was dominated by Cox in the second game. The key thing was his toe seemed fine and you can hope to put that game down to rust.

Forwards
Rookies
Zeph Skinner (WBD) belted out a 153 against GWS to increase by a total of 55 grand. Something to remember is in his only AFL game to date he was dominated by the bigger bodies and was subbed out after doing nothing, so wait to see how he handles a bigger and stronger team than the Giants. Freako -121 from 1 game.
Gerrick Weedon (WCE) scored a massive 165 and followed up with a good 86, to mean his price rocketed by 90 grand. Wait to see if he’s elevated prior to round one but with LeCras out for the year he’s a good chance to be. Get on.
Corey Dell’Olio (Ess) might be a mouthful but if he can get games could also be a great cash cow with scores of 63 and 83 in his two games for a gain of 35 grand.
Rhys Cooyou (GWS) had an exciting single scoring 118 points and rising by 40 grand. If he’s looking to get early game time he could be a great forward rookie pick up.

Mid-pricers
Brad Miller (Rich) had scores of 175 and 86 to post a huge gain of 55 grand. Buyer beware with his job security though, and I wouldn’t expect many performances like that in the real stuff.
Gunston (Haw) managed a 51 then an improved 98 putting his price up by 10 grand, although the 98 was scored while Buddy played Mid for half the game.
Gia (WBD) notched up a 156 and a 115 to increase by 30 grand, but tends to start strong and die out over the pre-season. Freako – 131 average from 2 games.
Ashton Hams (WCE) managed a 126 and a 108 for a price boost of 50 grand, also keep an eye on NAB to see if he makes the cut but will be behind Weedon for mine.
Stewart Crameri (Ess) looked solid in his only game, scoring 120 points. Another good mid-price option from the Bombers, but only made 5 grand.
Leroy Jetta (Ess) was impressive with 125 in his only match, meaning he would rise by 15 grand. Solid mid-price performer, but may struggle to reach premium.
At almost $500,000 David Zaharakis (Ess) needs to perform as a premium and his 56 didn’t come close. Would lose 15 grand and needs impress in the rest of the preseason to get a look.
Steele Sidebottom (Coll) managed two games scoring 115 and 128 to see his price increase by 20 grand. Although the signs are promising and he is another who may benefit from Macaffers injury, at $450,000+ there are probably cheaper mid-pricers around with a similar ceiling but forward/mid eligibility helps. Freako – 104 average over 2 games.
Dustin Martin (Rich) scored 160 in his only game and would go up 15 grand. Will be in most sides and rightly so. Should step it up to premium this year. Freako – 138 from 1 game.

Premiums
Buddy (Haw) smashed through a 161, followed by an even better 193 meaning he’d go up 45 grand. Get on, he will be in all sides and those he isn’t will regret it as usual. Freako – 167 average over 2 games.
Cyril Rioli (Haw) looked good notching up 128 but failed to deliver in the second game with only 56 for a net loss of 20 grand, has always been up and down but continues to tease.
Fyfe (Freo) played once and seemed to move fairly well, notching up a very solid 118. His earlier pre-season injuries don’t seem to be affecting him currently but again keep an eye on him for signs of it.
Pav (Freo) may have played his way into a few sides over the weekend, with his one game returning 181 points. This also saw his price rise 20 grand, which is pretty good for a premium, and is supposedly fitter than ever.

Wow! That was even bigger than I thought. Keep in mind these are just the results from the first week of Round 1 for the NAB cup, so only half the teams have played and as always it is the pre-season so try not to read too much into it. As for the community feedback on this one, itll be same as above but instead of trades itll be starting selections, so just a "Cox over Sandi?" deal should work pretty well as long as its a yes-no or two option question.
Hopefully it all helps, and it’d be great to hear some feedback!
Thanks guys and see you again next week, BB.