Breakevens and Salary Predictions

Discussion in 'Blog' started by Bazman, Apr 5, 2011.

By Bazman on Apr 5, 2011 at 10:00 AM
  1. Bazman

    Bazman New Member

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    Alright, with the breakevens and salary predictions coming to the forefront of our minds, I reckon now is a good time to remind everyone of just how powerful this site is for your team.

    So whether youre a beginner supercoach whos just coming to terms with breakevens and salary movement, or a seasoned vet who could use a refresher on the changes from last year, read on.
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    First thing is first, Ive been asked a couple of times why there is only an option to manage your watchlist in the stats page- The answer is: Because you havent set up your team yet! Youll need to go into the <a href="http://tooserious.net/profile">profile page[/url] and from here, you can create teams which you can then watch on the stats page.

    Once youve create a team, you can upload your current squad, or manually add players through the stats page. This makes life easier for your when you are trying to track exactly whats going on in your squad.

    Next, <a href="http://tooserious.net/stats.php">on the stats page[/url], the most important fields that youll be looking at is the Breakeven (BE), and the Next round (Predicted salary price movement for the next round). Sorting by either the BE, or the next round (or even total movement, which predicts a players salary movement over the next three rounds), will give you an immediant picture on which players are going to be appreciating, and which wont. These figures are generated based on a players current average- so if youre after more of a granular idea, youll need to access the salary predictor. To get in here, you need to click on the little calculator next to a players name.

    What you see on the salary calculator is a few things, a graphs which tracks the salary movement, and a table which allows you to enter data into. As you enter data into the table, and tab off the field, the graph will redraw itself with the new salary predictions. <a href="http://tooserious.net/player_calc.php?id=1097&pcid=13633">Edward Curnow[/url] is a perfect example of why you would want to do this- running a salary prediction based on his current price draws a line that looks something like this:

    <img src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/curnow_unchanged.png" style="width:450px;">

    However, do we really expect Curnow to continue his 115 average against a rampaging Collingwood outfit? Id hazard a guess and say no, infact, Curnow has been playing teams who the Ticker predicted would give up a lot of points, so you might want to enter in a more conservative prediction for a number of games, could have it looking something like this:

    <img src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/curnow_changed.png" style="width:450px;">

    As we see here, the difference in his total high falls from $500k in the "hot trade zone of rounds 6-10) to $350k, but it also shows that based on the games hell be playing, while a short-term outlook, itll seem that Curnow has plateaued, we can see that based on predictions, hes got a couple of good games in rounds 11 and 12 that could see his salary jump another $100k for you.

    So I suggest that you all take a look at the predictor, have a play with it, and before you make any trades as the season goes on, jump in and make sure youre doing the right thing!

    Of course, dont forget to check in with Lucass weekly best buys- that thing will get you on track.
     

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Discussion in 'Blog' started by Bazman, Apr 5, 2011.

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