Captain's Choice by the Numbers - Round 11

Discussion in 'Blog' started by DoggiesWoof, Jun 2, 2011.

By DoggiesWoof on Jun 2, 2011 at 10:00 AM
  1. DoggiesWoof

    DoggiesWoof New Member

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    Perma-captain? No such thing it would seem. Everyone’s favourite choice for that role this season has been Swan. However, Swan is playing injured. He hasn’t cracked the ton for the last three weeks and has only averaged 88 in those games.

    I started running some numbers for this week and I was extremely unimpressed by all of them. So I started to run some more – hence this is a bumper edition of possible choices. Based on the numbers, only one player seemed to stand out – and that player is …

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    Ablett v. West Coast

    Rd 22 2010: 176 SuperCoach points, 33 disposals
    Rd 11 2010: 121 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals
    Rd 11 2009: 175 SuperCoach points, 43 disposals
    Rd 22 2008: 107 SuperCoach points, 30 disposals
    Rd 13 2008: 169 SuperCoach points, 37 disposals
    Rd 7 2007: 106 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals

    Average is 142 SuperCoach points with 32 disposals.

    Note: Unbelievable recent record against the Eagles – 157 SuperCoach points over the last three games. However, is he on everyone’s team (perhaps he will be traded in after seeing these numbers) and how will he go when he doesn’t have his Geelong team mates backing him up?? Lots of question marks but it is hard to argue with the numbers.

    Selwood v. Western Bulldogs

    Rd 20 2010: 142 SuperCoach points, 35 disposals
    Rd 21 2009: 122 SuperCoach points, 33 disposals
    Rd 9 2009: 109 SuperCoach points, 32 disposals
    Rd 16 2008: 92 SuperCoach points, 27 disposals
    Rd 16 2007: 130 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals

    Average is 119 SuperCoach points with 30 disposals.

    Note: Very solid record against the Bulldogs. Will enjoy playing at Skilled Stadium. Should have a big game.

    Chapman v. Western Bulldogs

    Rd 20 2010: 80 SuperCoach points, 27 disposals
    Rd 9 2009: 69 SuperCoach points, 15 disposals
    Rd 16 2008: 92 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals
    Rd 16 2007: 115 SuperCoach points, 26 disposals
    Rd 1: 2007: 138 SuperCoach points, 27 disposals
    Rd 16 2006: 111 SuperCoach points, 17 disposals
    Rd 4 2006: 138 SuperCoach points, 22 disposals
    Rd 17 2005: 81 SuperCoach points, 18 disposals
    Rd 6 2005: 142 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals

    Average is 107 SuperCoach points with 22 disposals.

    Note: A pretty poor recent record against the Bulldogs. Has only averaged 83 in his previous four games this season.

    Boyd v. Geelong

    Rd 20 2010: 83 SuperCoach points, 35 disposals
    Rd 21 2009: 122 SuperCoach points, 25 disposals
    Rd 9 2009: 102 SuperCoach points, 28 disposals
    Rd 16 2008: 59 SuperCoach points, 19 disposals
    Rd 16 2007: 101 SuperCoach points, 27 disposals
    Rd 1: 2007: 81 SuperCoach points, 28 disposals
    Rd 16 2006: 98 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals
    Rd 4 2006: 87 SuperCoach points, 18 disposals
    Rd 17 2005: 42 SuperCoach points, 11 disposals
    Rd 6 2005: 77 SuperCoach points, 19 disposals

    Average is 85 SuperCoach points with 23 disposals.

    Note: Terrible record against Geelong. Has only managed to crack the ton three times for ten attempts. However, this is a breakout year for Boyd who is averaging 15 points more than last season.

    Pendlebury v. St Kilda

    Rd 16 2010: 106 SuperCoach points, 27 disposals
    Rd 3 2010: 73 SuperCoach points, 16 disposals
    Rd 7 2009: 128 SuperCoach points, 28 disposals
    Rd 19 2008: 74 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals
    Rd 8 2008: 123 SuperCoach points, 25 disposals
    Rd 14 2007: 72 SuperCoach points, 16 disposals

    Average is 96 SuperCoach points with 23 disposals.

    Notes: Notice a pattern here? Seems to alternate good games with games in the 70’s. If he follows the same pattern, he could cause grief to many teams. In great form at the moment – he is now the highest averaging player for the year in SC.

    Swan v. St Kilda

    Rd 16 2010: 145 SuperCoach points, 36 disposals
    Rd 3 2010: 98 SuperCoach points, 26 disposals
    Rd 7 2009: 66 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals
    Rd 19 2008: 139 SuperCoach points, 25 disposals
    Rd 8 2008: 118 SuperCoach points, 28 disposals
    Rd 14 2007: 145 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals

    Average is 119 SuperCoach points with 28 disposals.

    Notes: Current form is the worry – as stated above, only averaging 88 in his past three games.

    Dal Santo v. Collingwood

    Rd 3 2010: 130 SuperCoach points, 27 disposals
    Rd 7 2009: 152 SuperCoach points, 38 disposals

    Average is 141 SuperCoach points with 33 disposals.

    Notes: Great numbers against Collingwood but a small sample size. Scored 137 last week but only scored 81 and 78 in the two games prior.

    Montagna v. Collingwood

    Rd 16 2010: 137 SuperCoach points, 34 disposals
    Rd 3 2010: 120 SuperCoach points, 25 disposals
    Rd 7 2009: 149 SuperCoach points, 38 disposals
    Rd 19 2008: 57 SuperCoach points, 17 disposals
    Rd 8 2008: 89 SuperCoach points, 26 disposals
    Rd 14 2007: 41 SuperCoach points, 13 disposals
    Rd 14 2006: 122 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals

    Average is 102 SuperCoach points with 25 disposals.

    Notes: A solid recent history against Collingwood. An average of 135 over his past three games against them.

    Goddard v. Collingwood

    Rd 16 2010: 94 SuperCoach points, 28 disposals
    Rd 3 2010: 116 SuperCoach points, 25 disposals
    Rd 7 2009: 108 SuperCoach points, 31 disposals
    Rd 19 2008: 135 SuperCoach points, 32 disposals
    Rd 8 2008: 79 SuperCoach points, 20 disposals
    Rd 14 2006: 125 SuperCoach points, 26 disposals

    Average is 110 SuperCoach points with 27 disposals.

    Notes: Just an average record against Collingwood. Will be interesting to see if he has fully recovered from the hit to the head from last week’s game.

    Riewoldt v. Collingwood

    Rd 16 2010: 64 SuperCoach points, 10 disposals, 1 goal, 2 behinds
    Rd 3 2010: 25 SuperCoach points, 5 disposals
    Rd 7 2009: 142 SuperCoach points, 17 disposals, 5 goals, 1 behind
    Rd 19 2008: 110 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals, 2 goals, 3 behinds
    Rd 14 2007: 64 SuperCoach points, 16 disposals
    Rd 14 2006: 102 SuperCoach points, 19 disposals, 3 goals, 1 behind

    Average is 85 SuperCoach points with 15 disposals.

    Notes: Difficult to assess by looking at the stats. Rd 3 2010 was the game where he injured his hamstring. Rd 16 2010 was his second game back from injury. However, even without those numbers, not the best record against Collingwood.

    Judd v. Port Adelaide

    Rd 8 2010: 153 SuperCoach points, 27 disposals
    Rd 20 2009: 97 SuperCoach points, 19 disposals
    Rd 19 2008: 151 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals
    Rd 11 2008: 150 SuperCoach points, 32 disposals
    Rd 15 2007: 64 SuperCoach points, 11 disposals
    Rd 10 2005: 76 SuperCoach points, 14 disposals

    Average is 115 SuperCoach points with 21 disposals.

    Note: Fantastic recent record against Port Adelaide. Topped 150 in 3 of his previous 4 games against them. Last week I was a bit worried he was playing injured. He came out and blazed 155.

    Murphy v. Port Adelaide

    Rd 8 2010: 86 SuperCoach points, 22 disposals
    Rd 20 2009: 138 SuperCoach points, 33 disposals
    Rd 19 2008: 131 SuperCoach points, 28 disposals
    Rd 11 2008: 82 SuperCoach points, 33 disposals
    Rd 19 2007: 74 SuperCoach points, 20 disposals
    Rd 11 2007: 81 SuperCoach points, 18 disposals

    Average is 99 SuperCoach points with 26 disposals.

    Note: Great scores against Port in 2009 and 2008. In top form recently with scores of 145 and 147 in his two most recent games this season.

    Franklin v. Fremantle

    Rd 21 2010: 129 SuperCoach points, 17 disposals, 5 goals, 1 behinds
    Rd 8 2009: 109 SuperCoach points, 11 disposals, 4 goals
    Rd 2 2008: 74 SuperCoach points, 13 disposals, 4 goals, 1 behind
    Rd 7 2007: 69 SuperCoach points, 14 disposals, 1 goal, 4 behinds
    Rd 18 2006: 54 SuperCoach points, 9 disposals, 1 goal
    Rd 9 2005: 49 SuperCoach points, 11 disposals, 1 behind

    Average is 81 SuperCoach points with 13 disposals and over 2.5 goals.

    Note: Two most recent games he has scored over 100. Some very ordinary games between 2005 and 2008. Has averaged 123 SuperCoach points in his previous 4 games this season. In great form.

    Hodge v. Fremantle

    Rd 21 2010: 104 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals
    Rd 2 2008: 98 SuperCoach points, 19 disposals
    Rd 7 2007: 110 SuperCoach points, 27 disposals
    Rd 18 2006: 41 SuperCoach points, 10 disposals
    Rd 1 2006: 118 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals
    Rd 9 2005: 141 SuperCoach points, 30 disposals

    Average is 102 SuperCoach points with 23 disposals.

    Note: Hasn’t punched out a huge score against Fremantle since 2005. Had a great game last week against the Bulldogs with a nice 152.

    Pavlich v. Hawthorn

    Rd 8: 2009: 150 SuperCoach points, 30 disposals
    Rd 2 2008: 103 SuperCoach points, 18 disposals
    Rd 7 2007: 84 SuperCoach points, 9 disposals
    Rd 18 2006: 134 SuperCoach points, 16 disposals
    Rd 1 2006: 55 SuperCoach points, 11 disposals
    Rd 9 2005: 130 SuperCoach points, 17 disposals

    Average is 109 SuperCoach points with 17 disposals.

    Note: A great recent score against the Hawks. A little bit up and down though.

    Mundy v. Hawthorn

    Rd 8 2009: 38 SuperCoach points, 9 disposals
    Rd 2 2008: 34 SuperCoach points, 9 disposals
    Rd 7 2007: 41 SuperCoach points, 14 disposals
    Rd 18 2006: 91 SuperCoach points, 10 disposals
    Rd 1 2006: 66 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals
    Rd 9 2005: 31 SuperCoach points, 7 disposals

    Average is 50 SuperCoach points with 12 disposals.

    Note: These numbers are not typos. This year has been a breakout season for Mundy however. Having a blinder of a season this year.


    My opinion: Looking at the numbers, Ablett stands out like a sore thumb He seems to enjoy playing against the Eagles. The problem is, what happens to Ablett’s SuperCoach score when the Eagles crush the travel weary Gold Coast Suns??

    So the next question is, which Eagles are worth a look. Cox and Priddis will enter consideration due to their form this season. Cox scored 93 last round but in his previous four games averaged 127. He should enjoy playing at home against the young Zach Smith. Priddis is another option. He has only dropped below 100 once this season (92 SuperCoach points in Round 7). In the 8 games he has broken the ton, he has averaged 121 SuperCoach points.

    Based on the numbers above, Judd and Selwood seem safe choices. Based on recent form, Pendlebury looks like a good choice.

    For me, I think I will be picking Judd against Port Adelaide. Port Adelaide have really struggled this year and Judd should have a field day (even though the game is at AAMI Stadium). My second choice would be Selwood against the Bulldogs who are also struggling at the moment. After these two players, I would pick, in order, Pendlebury, Cox and then Ablett.

    Good luck to all!!
     

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Discussion in 'Blog' started by DoggiesWoof, Jun 2, 2011.

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